CFB Grind Down: Week 12 - Late Slate - Page 2

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-22 02:16:55

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys – O/U 77

Baylor

Elite Plays

Jarrett Stidham ($8,500 FD, $7,100 DK) – Stidham is not as big of a downgrade from Russell as most people think, and he has a chance to really put up some monster numbers here. We do not get the rushing ability, but we still have the passing ability in one of the most pass-happy offenses. The touchdowns are going to be there and in a 77 over/under pick’em game, this is definitely the time to use a cheaper Baylor QB. I think Stidham has a great shot at being one of the top scoring guys on the slate and he is my top play along with Reynolds.

Corey Coleman ($8,500 FD, $7,600 DK) – I am not sure there is much else to say about Coleman at this point. The guy is a monster and despite his poor game against the Oklahoma defense which shut down the Baylor offense last week, Coleman should rebound this week. There is a little concern with Stidham and with Coleman’s price, but this is still a great offense and I still like Coleman for a 10-catch, multiple-TD performance.

Secondary Plays

KD Cannon ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – If you cannot deal with the Corey Coleman’s price, take a look at Cannon, who has a solid rapport with Stidham. Cannon actually had a better game than Coleman in their last game against Oklahoma, and could be the guy who really surprises here. Cannon is super cheap and if he can get 5 for 77 in a bad matchup where the offense struggles, he can certainly get more against an Oklahoma State defense which is much worse.

Shock Linwood ($7,600 FD, $6,700 DK) – I like the price here, but I am not sure I like the matchup. Despite having a poor defense, Oklahoma State has been somewhat stingy against the run, and with this game as a pick’em, I doubt that we are going to see Linwood rush 25 times with a few capable backups behind him. I think they let Stidham air it out here and we can really only expect a 100 yard and 1 TD performance as Linwood’s mean.

Oklahoma State

Elite Plays

James Washington ($7,000 FD, $6,300 DK) – Washington’s price has risen drastically, but I think he is still in play. He has had three of the best games for an Oklahoma State WR this season and has established himself as the clear-cut #1 in an offense which didn’t have a #1 before he emerged. He is the big play guy and should be able to beat a Baylor defense in a game where OSU is projected around 38 points.

Secondary Plays

Mason Rudolph ($7,200 FD, $6,600 DK) – I am not a big fan of Rudolph and am most likely going to be fading him everywhere, but there is some merit in using him as he showed his upside with 5 TDs two games ago. He basically needs a 10+ yard passing TD as they will put Walsh in around the goal line to clean up the work. The points are there and the yards are going to be there, but the TDs are a question.

Texas A&M Aggies at Vanderbilt Commodores – O/U 43

Texas A&M

Elite Plays

None – Again, we have a really low scoring game with a few of our favorite teams in Vandy, Boston College, and Missouri, teams that are no fun in fantasy and usually just teams to avoid. We also have a quarterback controversy here as the starter, whether it be Murray or Allen, has not been released yet, which is never really good for fantasy either. With the question at QB and Murray destroying the value of the WRs due to the rush game, I think this is mainly a situation avoid, especially against a top 25 defense in Vandy.

Secondary Plays

Tra Carson ($5,800 FD, $5,000 DK) – I would not be ecstatic about using Carson here but there are worse plays to be made, especially for a cheap price like he has. He is really the only sure thing in this offense anymore, as he will touch the ball 20 times per game and has gone for over 100 yards in three straight. Vandy’s defense is solid but Carson is the safest play on this side.

Vanderbilt

None – I guess you could go for Ralph Webb on DraftKings, where he is extremely cheap and expected to get 30 carries in this game, but this offense is horrible. I could see an argument for Webb, as Texas A&M has allowed 210 yards on the ground per game this year, and Vandy is at home. But they only have an 18 point over/under, so TDs are going to be hard to come by.

TCU Horned Frogs at Oklahoma Sooners – O/U N/A

TCU

Elite Plays

Shaun Nixon $4,800 FD, $4,700 DK) – Nixon is the only great play right now no matter who starts at QB for TCU, as he has caught 8 and 7 passes in the last two games. Listenbee and Turpin are still involved in the offense, but it is Nixon who has emerged as the best option out of the three with Doctson on the shelf. With Doctson out again, we can look to all three, but Nixon is the cheapest with the best history over the last two games.

Aaron Green ($6,600 FD, $6,600 DK) – No matter who starts at QB for TCU, if Boykin is out and even if Boykin plays, expect the offense to be run through Aaron Green, who will take stress off of that position. He had 30 carries in the last game, and even if he wasn’t great with those carries, he does have big play ability and is cheaper than I think I have seen him most of the season. If Boykin is out, I love him as a high volume guy.

Secondary Plays

None – I think the two are above are the best plays considering the situation. Doctson is out, but Listenbee and Turpin have not done much in his absence and are still priced up which makes them risky. Neither Kohlhausen or Sawyer have locked up this job if Boykin sits and neither makes an interesting play unless we get confirmation.

Tulane Green Wave at SMU Mustangs – O/U 55

Tulane

Elite Plays

None – This game is very interesting as it puts together two bad teams with pretty poor defenses and unreliable players and matches them up together. There should be a breakout star from this game, but I just cannot put my finger on them right now. Tanner Lee is not very good and is a little bit overpriced, and Veal is interesting as well, but I like Dontrell Hilliard.

Secondary Plays

Dontrell Hilliard *$4,100 – If you are looking for an RB, look no further than the RB facing SMU’s miserable rush defense which allows 273 yards per game. There are split carries here and the offense is horrible, but Hilliard has found the end zone a few times this year and only needs a matchup like this to have a breakout game.

SMU

Elite Plays

None – I am pretty disgusted with the price on Matt Davis here, and I do not like Xavier Jones, as I would rather just have Hilliard against a much worse run defense. I think we can reasonably fade both QBs in this game as there are better QBs around the player pool with much higher upsides.

Secondary Plays

Courtland Sutton $5,400 – I cannot even like this much at this price point. Sutton had one monster game and has cooled since then, and even though SMU is expected to hit four touchdowns in this game, I am seeing his poor games from the last two against some pretty good defenses and am not sure if I can pull the trigger. The fact that they were against good defenses gives me hope, but still not much.

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal – O/U 64

California

Elite Plays

None – We finally get Lasco back in a solid matchup, and he leaves with an ankle injury. We also get to see the pass game against one of the worst teams in the Pac-12, but none of the big receivers do anything solid. This is too much of a risky situation for me to like Goff or any of the WRs, as they would be a massive gamble, and the RBs, who are cheap, and are going to take over for Lasco (or continue in his stead) will have to face a Stanford rush defense.

Secondary Plays

Tre Watson $3,600 – Watson showed an explosiveness that Enwere does not produce, and while Muhammad is expected to play, I think Watson might be the guy to get the first few looks at breaking through. This is not a good matchup, however, and with a lot of other solid RB value out there, it might be difficult to fit him in.

Stanford

Elite Plays

Christian McCaffrey $8,600 – The NCAA leader in all-purpose yards is always a great play and is really the only good play on this Stanford team. McCaffrey brings huge upside touching the ball about 40 times per game, and if you spend your money on him you can be certain he is going to get at least 20 fantasy points with upside for mid 50s. McCaffrey should shred this California defense and be used with game flow in his favor.

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