CFB Grind Down: Week 12 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-23 12:54:24

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

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Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks – O/U 57

Mississippi State

Elite Plays

Fred Ross ($5,400 FD, $4,600 DK) – Even with Wilson expected back this week, Ross has gone for 11 and 8 catches going over 100 yards in the last two games and makes an extremely solid play. If Wilson does end up playing, he might be limited or be on a snap count and the coaches may take it easy, making Ross the #1 option for Prescott. The price is extremely cheap here for a guy with that kind of upside against a team giving up 282 yards per game through the air.

Secondary Plays

Dak Prescott ($9,500 FD, $8,000 DK) – The upside is always there with the potential for massive gains on the ground and through the air, but with a few other guys in better spots and his price out of control, I think I like a few of the other QBs just a little bit better. Prescott should be considered, especially as a pair with Ross in a GPP, though.

Arkansas

Elite Plays

Alex Collins ($7,800 FD, $6,900 DK) – Collins got back to work last week with 141 yards on 16 carries against a tough LSU defense, and while Arkansas has been more pass oriented, I would not be surprised to see Arkansas line up the run over and over again here. Collins is the guy I want on Arkansas, as they are projected and should end up with solid game flow, but I would not count out the pass game either.

Secondary Plays

Brandon Allen ($7,900 FD, $5,300 DK) – I would not use Allen on FanDuel, but DraftKings continually has him criminally underpriced. If you think this game stays close like a few of the Arkansas barnburners this year, Allen is a fantastic value at $5,300. He has been throwing a lot more than we expected, and despite losing Hatcher, Reed and Morgan have stepped up and been great targets. I think they go with the run this week. I also think at $5,300 he doesn’t need much for value.

Navy Midshipmen at Tulsa Golden Hurricane – O/U 68

Navy

Elite Plays

Keenan Reynolds ($8,600 FD, $8,100 DK) – Reynolds is a stud at the QB position but is more like a top tier RB who is going to get 25 carries per game, score a few touchdowns and then also pass 4-5 times per game, generally for a TD as well. Tulsa is not very good defensively; in fact, they are at the bottom of nearly every category including allowing 220 yards per game on the ground. Navy has the highest total here, so Reynolds is in for a monster performance.

Tulsa

Elite Plays

Joshua Atkinson ($5,800 FD, $4,600 DK) – After Lucas went down, Atkinson was the cream of the crop at WR for a while as Dane Evans looked his way every time since defenses were keying in on Garrett. Eventually, Evans was exposed and played bad and defenses also looked Atkinson’s way. Evans is back playing somewhat well, and Atkinson is the cheapest he has been since the beginning of the season, and he also had eight catches last week. I love him here as Tulsa will be playing from behind and he should get a lot of looks.

Secondary Plays

Ramadi Warren ($5,600 FD, $4,800 DK) – Warren is clearly the best back in this situation and remains cheap despite two large games in the past couple of weeks with Langer out with an injury. He will still split time with Brewer, but I think Warren will go underowned in GPPs, and if he breaks a couple of big ones, which he has done in the last two weeks, he can definitely hit value. I do not love the opponent or the situation, which is why he is probably a tertiary play.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Georgia Bulldogs – O/U 50

Georgia Southern

None – I am not using Kevin Ellison in a competition-up game; Georgia’s pass defense is stout and this is a run first team. I am also not using any of the other running backs who split time with Breida since the Bulldogs’ defense overall is great and Georgia Southern has not faced a team like Georgia in weeks. Breida, despite a bit of a price drop, is still not a great play as Southern has a bad team total at 18 points; this just is not a good situation for them.

Georgia

Elite Plays

Sony Michel ($6,600 FD, $7,300 DK) – I love the price on FanDuel for Michel and think he is a great play there even against a solid Georgia Southern defense. I think he is a decent play on DK as well but do not like him as much there. Michel continues to get all of the work for this Georgia team on the offensive side of the ball (Grayson Lambert is not a good QB) and they have no WRs, so we can expect 25 carries against a team with a solid rush defense but one that hasn’t faced great competition.

Secondary Plays

None – There are too many questions here outside of Michel. How healthy is Marshall, and will Douglas get carries? I’m staying away.

Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers – O/U 42

Tennessee

Elite Plays

None – Dobbs was oddly bad against North Texas but was not asked to do much, so that could be most of the reason why. Kamara got a lot of the work against North Texas but I would expect the load of the offense to be run through Hurd, who is decently cheap. I do not want anyone else on this Tennessee team going up against a Missouri defense ranked eighth in the country.

Secondary Plays

Jalen Hurd ($6,500 FD, $5,600 DK) – Hurd should get the brunt of the work here at a decently cheap price but the problem is that Missouri only allows 112 yards per game on the ground and has bottled up some of the great RBs in the country. I would stray away from this game almost altogether considering the low total and the strength of Missouri at home.

Missouri

None – Have we ever used a Missouri player confidently this year? The offense just is not good, and even though Hansbrough rushed for 117 yards last week, this game has an over under of 42 with Missouri expected to score just over two touchdowns. This is not the recipe for fantasy success, so I am avoiding Mizzou completely.

Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – O/U 42

Boston College

None – This team is just as big a disaster offensively, maybe even more of a disaster than Missouri. BC actually has to go on the road here to face Notre Dame and they are not even projected to score two touchdowns in this one. Just ignore this team completely.

Notre Dame

Elite Plays

None – BC is an elite defense and should hold a great team in Notre Dame down to about four touchdowns in this one. They allow absolutely no one to rush on them, so Prosise is out of the question for me, and the only thing to think about is do I want to use Kizer and Fuller.

Secondary Plays

Will Fuller ($7,000 FD, $6,300 DK) – The question is simple to me, in that Kizer is way too expensive now, and considering the ability of Boston College to shut down anyone trying to run the ball, Kizer will have to go to the air and use Fuller. He is going to get his somehow every game and has the speed and strength to beat the BC DBs. He was pretty much held without anything last week against Wake Forest, but do not expect that to be the case here, as ND will have no success running.

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