CFB Grind Down: Week 13 - Early Slate - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-27 22:08:46

Southern Methodist Mustangs at Memphis Tigers – O/U 73

SMU

This isn’t a big game on a national scale, but in terms of fantasy potential it’s projected to be one of the better games to target. SMU checks in as 21 point underdogs as they’re facing a Memphis team that came out of the gates hot, but has now lost three straight games. The strength of Memphis’ defense is their ability to stop the run as they’re allowing 3.9 YPC. However, they’ve really struggled against the pass as they’re 125th in passing yards allowed per game. SMU QB Matt Davis is much more of a threat with his legs than his arm, but he should see an uptick in passing in this one. He’s not a guy I’d trust for cash games, but he has shown big upside at times this year and should have a floor of 40+ combined running and passing attempts. As mentioned, Davis’ passing can be hit or miss so the SMU receivers can be risky. Courtland Sutton has been quiet of late, but he’s the lead SMU receiver on the year with nine receiving TDs. As mentioned this is a bad Memphis pass defense so it would come as no surprise to see him get back in the endzone in this one.

SMU RB Xavier Jones is coming off a 3 TD game, but Memphis has held some solid RB in check so I’ll pass on him in this spot.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Matt Davis, Courtland Sutton.

Memphis

The Memphis side of the ball looks to be the side we really want to attack as this SMU defense is very exploitable. Memphis has a team total of 47 points, but the real problem is deciphering where that production will come from. Memphis QB Paxton Lynch is the safest and most predictable exposure to this Memphis offense. Lynch has cooled down of late, and really struggled against a tough Temple defense, but this is a prime bounce back spot against a defense Memphis should shred. His price on FD is particularly cheap as he’s coming at $2,000 discount from Watson and Marquise Williams.

After Lynch things get murky for the Tigers. They are RBBC as Doroland Dorceus, Jarvis Cooper, Jamarius Henderson and Sam Craft all get work. Dorceus is the most stable of the group but still can only be counted on for 7 to 10 touches. SMU’s run defense has been awful so you could take a shot in a tournament but he’s too risky for cash games. Their receivers are like their running backs in that there’s no real go to option. Anthony Miller and Mose Frazier are the two lead options, but neither has topped 700 receiving yards on the season. Both bring some upside, but a very low floor due to Memphis spreading the ball around so they’re GPP only plays.

Elite Options – Paxton Lynch

Secondary Options – Doroland Dorceus (GPP), Anthony Miller

Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers – O/U 61

Iowa State

This will be Paul Rhoads final game at ISU as he’s been fired so they should be playing with nothing to lose here. They check in as 14 point underdogs against a West Virginia team that has been just average defensively. Joel Lanning is coming off of two very strong fantasy performances, and has flashed some dual threat ability as he has double digit carries in each his starts this season. He’s too expensive on FD for my tastes, but he does have at least 17 DK points in every start so he’s at least worth a peek on DK as a cheap QB2. He’s formed a very nice connection with Allen Lazard, who has three TD over his last two games.

At RB, Mike Warren recorded his sixth 100 yard rushing day of the year and has topped 150 rushing yards four times this year so the upside is certainly there. WVU is allowing 4.5 YPC (76th) and is 86th in rushing yards allowed per game so this is a quality spot for Warren. There are plenty of RB options today so he’s not an elite option, especially on DK, but at $6,200 on FD he’s not a bad option for tournaments.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Joel Lanning (DK), Allen Lazard, Mike Warren

West Virginia

After struggling against the top half of the Big 12, West Virginia has reeled off three straight wins against the Big 12 bottom feeders and should make it four in a row against ISU. The Cyclones have really struggled defensively this season and have coughed up 35+ points in six of their last seven games. They’ve really struggled against the pass (115th) but haven’t been much better against the run as they’re allowing 4.8 YPC. West Virginia has really morphed into a run first team of late as Skyler Howard hasn’t topped 22 pass attempts in any of his last three games. They’re going to try to pound the ball and with ISU struggling to stop the run, this should be another run heavy offense from the Cyclones. Howard did flash running upside last week, but that came against Kansas, and he’s otherwise a guy who can get you around 40 yards on the ground. Overall, I expect WVU to have success on the ground so I’m not sure the volume will be there in the passing game to attack the shaky ISU secondary so I’d put the entire WVU passing game in GPP only territory.

I’m much more interested in the WVU running game, particularly Wendell Smallwood who has topped 100 rushing yards in seven of his last eight games. He should continue to get 20+ carries a game, and with WVU holding a team total of 37 points, he has a great shot to get into the endzone at least once (hopefully twice). The DK cap is once again tight so he’s a great target at under $7,000 if you can’t afford a guy like Derrick Henry. Rushel Shell is still going to factor in for 12 to 15 carries a game, and could very well vulture a TD in this one. His price has come up a bit due to his explosion last weekend against Kansas so I’ll likely stay away in this one.

Elite Options – Wendell Smallwood

Secondary Options – Skyler Howard

Colorado Buffaloes at Utah Utes – O/U 49.5

Colorado

Colorado heads on the road to face a tough Utah defense and will be continue to be without their starting QB Sefo Liufau. Cade Apsay will draw the start in his place and he’s been very unimpressive so far as he’s failed to top 10 FD points in either of his last two games. He’s not a guy I’d look to in a tough road environment, but he does seem to lock in on Nelson Spruce as opposed to *Shay Fields. Over his last two games, Spruce has produced 17 total receptions and 214 receiving yards so he’d be the one guy maybe worth a GPP look

Utah has played stiff run defense all season long and this Colorado backfield is sub-par so I’ll be avoiding the CU running game.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Nelson Spruce

Utah

The Utah offense sputtered without star RB Devontae Booker last weekend, but draws a nice matchup to get back on track as Colorado has really struggled defensively. Despite losing Booker, Utah is going to continue to be a run first offense as their QB Travis Wilson is not an elite passer. While he’s not a great passer, he can be a factor with his legs, and with Booker out, he logged a season high 18 carries last weekend. Colorado is 101st in rushing yards allowed per game and is also allowing 5.2 YPC (111th) so there is significant upside here for the Utes running game. Wilson did throw for 311 yards and three TDs against CU last year and given his running upside, I think he’s firmly in play in all formats as a cheap QB2 on DK. On a one QB site like FD, I’d likely reserve him for GPP only. He will be without his top WR Britain Covey so maybe a guy like Kenneth Scott sees a few more targets come his way.

At RB, Joe Williams isn’t the talent of Devontae Booker, but Utah is going to use him in the exact same way as Williams stepped right into 30 touches and produced 150 total yards. He was held out of the endzone, but will have easier sledding this week. At his price point, 30 touches provides a great floor and I think he’s viable in all formats.

Elite Options – Travis Wilson (DK), Joe Williams

Secondary Options – Kenneth Scott (DK)

UCLA Bruins at USC Trojans – O/U 63

UCLA

This is always a big rivalry game and it carries a little extra this year as this Pac 12 South title is still up for grabs. Both teams run over 70 plays per game and Vegas has this one with a solid total of 63 points. The Trojans biggest weakness on defense has been their pass defense and they are fresh off of allowing six TD passes to Vernon Adams. That puts UCLA QB Josh Rosen in a nice spot, and he’s shown a ton of promise this year with four 300+ yard passing games in his last six. I personally prefer him more for GPP as he can be volatile, doesn’t offer much running upside, and UCLA can lean on their potent running game at times. Rosen’s top targets out wide are Jordan Payton and Thomas Duarte, and both are definitely in play in this plus matchup. Duarte can put up big games, but Payton is the preferred cash game play as he has the more consistent volume and comes in hot. Given the weak crop of WR, he’s one of the elite options on the board

UCLA also has a potent ground game as they have a great RB in Paul Perkins. He was banged up in late October, but he’s fully healthy now and UCLA is leaning on him down the stretch. He’s topped 20 carries in three straight and had a season high 28 last weekend against a tough Utah defense. USC’s rushing defense has been solid on the year and they did hold Devontae Booker to only 62 rushing yards. However, they weren’t great against other top backs they faced, as Royce Freeman had 200 total yards last weekend, C.J. Prosise ran for 143 yards and two TDs, and Christian McCaffrey had 115 rushing yards. I wouldn’t be excited about paying a steep salary for Perkins, but his salary is down across the industry so he makes for a fine target.

Elite Options – Jordan Payton, Paul Perkins

Secondary Options – Josh Rosen, Thomas Duarte

USC

The USC offense struggled in this matchup last year as Cody Kessler threw for only 214 yards and they only had 62 rushing yards. UCLA has been very good against the pass as they are 36th in passing yards allowed, which is very impressive for a team in the pass happy Pac 12. Combine UCLA’s solid pass defense with a struggling USC QB Cody Kessler, and you have a situation I don’t want to be a part of. In terms of pass defense, he’s had much better matchups in his previous four games and has failed to top 250 passing yards in each so he’s a very risky play right now. If you’re looking to get a piece of the USC passing game, I’d be more inclined to target Juju Smith. He’s been affected by Kessler’s struggles and is also banged up, but he has managed to find the endzone twice in the last four weeks. Given the struggles of the USC passing game, he’s not a must play, but the WR position is thin today and his price is down so I have no issues rolling him out there, as he’s been terrific at times this season.

The weaker part of the UCLA defense has been their run defense as they’ve lost some key pieces to injury in their front seven. The problem is that the USC RB situation has become a time share and Tre Madden is expected to be available for 12 to 15 plays in short yardage and goal line situations. His presence takes away from Ronald Jones and Justin Davis who both have been seeing around 15 carries per game recently. I’d side with Jones if I’m targeting a USC RB due to his big play ability, but this is a crowded backfield so it’s not a play I feel great about.

Elite Options – Juju Smith

Secondary Options – Ronald Jones

North Carolina Tar Heels at North Carolina State Wolfpack – O/U 64.5

North Carolina

There are 3 QBs that I think are head and shoulders above everyone today and Marquise Williams is in that group with Deshaun Watson and Paxton Lynch. He struggled last week but still managed 20 FD points so his floor is very high and he brings that 40 fantasy point upside. On the season, NC State ranks highly in both passing and rushing defense, but I’m not really a believer. They played a very light schedule to start the year so I think their defense numbers are inflated. Against the top two offenses they faced, Clemson torched them for 56 points racked up over 600 yards of total offense, while Florida State also approached 500 yards of total offense.Deshaun Watson lit them up for over 400 total yard and six TDs so I like a similar dual threat in Williams to get back on track this weekend and Vegas agrees as UNC has a team total of 35. He’s not a guy that I’d look to handcuff with a WR as he does plenty of damage with his legs and his WR are very unpredictable. Mack Hollins and Ryan Switzer are his favorite targets on the season, but both rely on the big play so the volume and production isn’t there on a week to week basis.

After getting frustrating usage to start the year, Elijah Hood has finally emerged as a consistent fantasy option. He’s topped 18 FD points in seven of his last eight games, and is getting a on of goal line work as he has 14 rushing TDs on the season, including six over his last three games. NC State’s run defense didn’t hold up against Dalvin Cook or Wayne Gallman so Hood should continue to be a fine option today, but it is a very deep position.

Elite Options – Marquise Williams, Elijah Hood

Secondary Options – Mack Hollins/Ryan Switzer

North Carolina State

NC State is expected to keep this one close and has a team total of 29 points so there is some fantasy potential here. They did lose their top RB Matt Dayes to a season ending injury so they’ve become a RBBC so I’d avoid their RB. UNC’s weakness on defense has been their ability to stop the run so if you’re looking to target the NC State passing game then I’d look to their QB Jacoby Brissett or their TE Jaylen Samuels. Samuels is one of the most interesting players in CFB and is easily the most dynamic TE in CFB. NC State gets him the ball all over the field as he’s not your typical TE and with the injury to Dayes, he’s getting 6 to 8 carries per game. He’s still getting heavy usage in the passing game and has 14 touches or more in three of his last four games. That’s insane usage from a TE as he has 14 total TDs on the season, but he won’t come cheap on FD. A guy like Paxton Lynch is cheap on FD so if you’re rolling him out at QB then you can fit in Samuels without too much problems. He’s very affordable on DK so he’s one of the few TE that I consider in play on DK.

Outside of Samuels the only potential play is Brissett as a punt QB. Outside of a game against a tough Boston College defense, he’s been fairly solid over his past five games and also provides solid usage in the running game. He had a big day in this game last year as he ran for 160 yards and had 4 total TDs, but this is a much improved UNC defense this time around. Given the lack of QBs on this slate, I don’t mind mixing him as a cheap QB2 for tournaments.

Elite Options – Jaylen Samuels

Secondary Options – Jacoby Brissett

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