CFB Grind Down: Week 13 - Early Slate

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

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NOTE – I haven’t looked at any weather and have broken down the games on the assumption that weather is not a factor since I’m not a weatherman. Be sure to double check the weather as games in the midwest and east coast can obviously get dicey this time of year.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Virginia CavaliersO/U 51

Virginia Tech Hokies Virginia Cavaliers
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
27.25 -3.5 72.64 69.00 23.75 3.5
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 214.09 159.09 Offense 244.36 134.09
Opp Def 256.45 164.82 Opp Def 173.91 172.64
Opp Def Rank 97th 57th Opp Def Rank 11th 71st

Virginia Tech

This is a FD only game and checks in with an average total of 51 points. The Hokies are coming off a tough overtime loss to UNC in Frank Beamer’s final home game, and now head to Charlottesville to face a bad Virginia team. Virginia Tech is sitting on five wins so they will be motivated to pick up their sixth win and lock in bowl eligibility. This is an average at best offense but they are predicted to score around 4 TDs here so they are in play.

Michael Brewer is just a guy at QB and has a ceiling of around 20 FD points with a floor of just around 10 points. Virginia is 97th in passing yards allowed per game so if I’m targeting the Hokies’ passing game, I prefer Bucky Hodges and Isaiah Ford. Jaylen Samuels is the top TE option on FD, but he’s very pricey, so Hodges is one of the better mid-range TE options on the board. In this matchup last year, he had 63 receiving yards and a TD, and TEs from Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt and Duke all hit paydirt against UVA this year. Ford has been the Hokies’ go-to WR as he has nine receiving TDs on the year and had a big game last weekend against UNC. On the season, Virginia has allowed some big games to number one wideouts as Stacy Coley, Will Fuller, and Thomas Sperbeck all put together big outings against them.

In terms of rushing yardage per game, Virginia has been solid this year (57th) but they are allowing 4.8 YPC (92nd) so Travon McMillian is in play. He disappointed last game against a susceptible UNC defense, but has topped 20 carries in four straight games.

Elite Options – Bucky Hodges

Secondary Options – Travon McMillan, Isaiah Ford

Virginia

The Cavaliers are another average offense and face a Virginia Tech defense that has been elite against the pass but sub-par against the run. Virginia QB Matt Johns has been very good his last two games, but overall he lacks upside and given the 11th ranked pass defense of the Hokies, he’s a guy I’ll be avoiding. Also, his top WR Canaan Severin was limited last game against Duke and while it sounds like he’ll try to tough it out, he’s likely not at 100%.

I am intrigued by UVA RB Taquan Mizzell as he continues to see a ton of usage in the passing game, but his usage in the running game has really surged. He’s coming off a huge game last weekend and has at least 17 FD points in five of his last six games. He’s a dynamic threat out of the backfield in the passing game, and is basically a lock to top 20 touches here. Virginia Tech continued to struggle against the run last weekend, and are allowing 4.5 YPC on the season. I think there are safer cash game options, but he’s a fine GPP play at what should be low ownership.

Elite OptionsNONE

Secondary Options – Taquan Mizzell

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsO/U 48.5

Georgia Bulldogs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
26.75 -5 62.73 65.09 21.75 5
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 183.73 195.82 Offense 124.91 262.36
Opp Def 201.00 163.91 Opp Def 151.91 148.09
Opp Def Rank 41st 52nd Opp Def Rank 2nd 42nd

Georgia

The air has kind of been taken out of this rivalry this year as both teams have really struggled. Georgia Tech could be down to their backup QB, and Georgia’s QB play the entire year has been backup quality at best. Georgia Tech has been above average against the pass and given the UGA QB play, there’s not a lot to like in the UGA passing game. Their top WR Malcolm Mitchell is talented, but he’s severely limited by his poor QB play.

Georgia Tech has been susceptible to the run at times this year as they’re allowing 4.7 YPC (86th) and while they contained Dalvin Cook, they coughed up big days to C.J. Prosise, Wayne Gallman, and Travon McMillian. Sony Michel is averaging just over 25 touches per game over his last three games, and should continue to be the workhorse for Georgia. He’s not cheap on DK, but at just $6,800 on FD, he fits in nicely as a RB2.

Elite Options – Sony Michel (FD)

Secondary Options – Sony Michel (DK)

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has had a disastrous year and now could be without their starting QB Justin Thomas. He left last week’s game early with an undisclosed injury, and has status hasn’t been updated. Matthew Jordan took his place and had 28 carries but for only 60 yards against a bad Miami run defense. Georgia has been solid defensively this season, and has held the Georgia Tech QB in check the previous few years so this isn’t a great spot for either Thomas or Jordan.

Outside of their QB, there is no telling where the production will come from on a week to week basis. B-Back Marcus Marshall “led” the RB in carries last weekend with 8, but there hasn’t been a reliable option all year. In the previous two years, the Georgia Tech B-backs had big days against UGA as Zach Laskey and Synjyn Days combined for 234 yards and 3 TDs last year and in 2013 b-back David Sims ran for 100 yards. However, unlike in year’s past, there is no dominant B-back this season, but the injury situation of B-Back Marcus Allen bears monitoring. He left last week’s game with an injury, and if he sits then Marshal should get the lion’s share of the work at B-back as Patrick Skov seems to have fallen out of the rotation. It’s been a very unpredictable situation so it’s best avoided but if a starter is named at B-back then they could be worth a stab in a low dollar large field GPP.

Elite OptionsNONE

Secondary Options – Marcus Marshall (if Marcus Allen out and he’s starter)

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan WolverinesO/U 45

Ohio State Buckeyes Michigan Wolverines
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
21.75 1.5 67.09 68.82 23.25 -1.5
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 193.64 230.45 Offense 227.73 161.36
Opp Def 162.73 100.36 Opp Def 164.27 133.73
Opp Def Rank 4th 4th Opp Def Rank 6th 30th

If you had told me at the beginning of the year that Ohio State would be heading to the Big House as underdogs, I would have called you a moron and asked you to send me all of your H2Hs. But that’s where exactly the position we have Saturday as Jim Harbaugh has brought the Michigan program back to life and Ohio State is coming off of a shocking home loss to Michigan State. Not only did they lose to Michigan State, but their star RB Ezekiel Elliott completely melted down post game and ripped the coaches and declared he was going pro.

That’s where narrative street comes in here. While some speculated that Elliott would be disciplined, OSU took the opposite approach and while Urban Meyer said it was the wrong platform, he agreed with him and he won’t face any discipline. Based on what happened last week, you have to think we see a TON of Elliott this weekend so his volume should be very secure. The problem is that the matchup is incredibly tough as Michigan is 4th in rushing yards allowed per game and allow just 3.1 YPC (5th). Jordan Howard (35/238/2) did really get loose on UM two weeks ago, but otherwise they’ve held some very good backs in check: Devontae Booker (22/69/1), Saquon Barkley (15/68), and Justin Jackson (12/25). I don’t mind taking a stab with Elliott as his price is down but based on the matchup and Vegas line, I’m not getting crazy and will have a lot more Derrick Henry. He did run for 120 yards and two TDs last year against a quality Michigan defense, but this is a much better UM team overall than we saw last year.

Michigan also brings the 4th ranked passing defense to the table in this one and JT Barrett is coming off an awful game, which came as a surprise to me (and my lineups). The weather likely played some factor, but overall he was just plain bad. In terms of the competition faced, the UM passing defense isn’t as impressive as the running defense as they really haven’t faced many good QBs or passing games. Michigan State is by far the best passing offense they’ve faced and Connor Cook threw for 328 yards and a TD. Given the low Vegas total and Barrett’s struggles of late, he’d be a large field tournament play but he’s shown big game upside and he will be very low owned due to last weekend. He was injured in this game last year, but racked up 176 passing yards and a TD, as well as 89 rushing yards and two TDs, before his injury. If you’re looking to handcuff with him a WR then I’d target Michael Thomas as Braxton Miller just hasn’t been able to get untracked and Jalin Marshall has underwhelmed. Thomas has scored in all but three games this year, and continues to be the primary Buckeye playmaker out wide.

Elite OptionsNONE

Secondary Options – Ezekiel Elliott, J.T. Barrett

Michigan

This is a game that I’m much more excited about watching from a pure fan’s perspective than a DFS perspective as there doesn’t look to be a ton of fantasy potential. Michigan is favored here but still is projected to score just 3 TDs. Like Michigan, Ohio State features a quality defense that is 6th against the pass and 30th against the run (in terms of yardage allowed) so there’s no glaring weakness to attack. Jim Harbaugh teams typically feature a great running game, but there’s no lead back on UM to really get excited about. De’Veon Smith is their top producer but his workload has decreased as the season has progressed. He hasn’t topped 15 carries since Week 7, and the Michigan fullbacks can vulture some TDs as well. OSU hasn’t faced an elite running back, but they are allowing just 3.4 YPC, and there’s not enough volume to safely target anyone in the Michigan backfield.

Jake Rudock took advantage of poor Rutgers and Indiana defenses en route to monster fantasy performances a few weeks ago. He was solid last weekend against Penn State, but his production dropped to the levels that we expect from an average QB like Rudock as he threw for 250 yards and two TDs. Given the tough matchup and Rudock’s lack of upside, I’ll be avoiding him once again this week. He does have three playmakers that have been very productive of late in Jake Butt, Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh. Butt is one of the best TEs in the country and is heavily targeted in the UM passing attack. He’ll likely go underowned on FD as most will likely spend up to Jaylen Samuels or save at the position so he’s a fine tournament option on FD and sites that require a TE. After a slow start to the year, Chesson has 7 TDs over his last four weeks, but most of that production came in one game against Indiana. Darboh is their leading WR on the year and has scored in three straight. Both are ok options, but I’ll probably be limiting my exposure to Jake Butt as this OSU secondary is talented.

Elite Options – Jake Butt (FD)

Secondary Options – Amara Darboh/Jehu Chesson

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky WildcatsO/U 53.5

Louisville Cardinals Kentucky Wildcats
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
28.75 -4 69.27 68.45 24.75 4
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 253.09 145.64 Offense 210.27 169.09
Opp Def 200.18 185.36 Opp Def 205.18 121.18
Opp Def Rank 32nd 83rd Opp Def Rank 44th 23rd

Louisville

This one is really tough to break down from a Louisville perspective as we don’t know who will be their QB. Louisville has played musical chairs at QB the entire year and a starter hasn’t been named between Kyle Bolin and Lamar Jackson for this one. Bolin started last week but was replaced by Jackson, who played well in the 2nd half. They are drastically different QBs as Bolin is more of a passer and Jackson a runner. The other interesting fact is that typically a dual threat QB opens up lanes for the RB, but Jackson calls his own number a ton and destroys Brandon Radcliff’s value when he’s in there. With Bolin starting against Virginia, Radcliffe finally put together a quality game with 100 rushing yards and two TDs, and this Kentucky run defense is very beatable. If Bolin gets the start, Radcliff is an interesting tournament option as he’s off of almost everyone’s radar, but I’m not sure we’ll know QB news prior to kickoff. If Jackson draws the start then I want no part of Radcliff and Jackson becomes interesting at his cheap price point, as he has plenty of upside due to his legs. If Bolin draws the start it is also worth noting that he carved up this UK defense for 381 passing yards and three TDs last year. Overall, all we can do is monitor the news and hope we get some information as to who will draw the start at QB.

At WR, Jamari Staples has two 30 FD point games over his last four, but his floor is basically non-existent as he can throw up a 2 point dud. I prefer to use him if Bolin draws the start, but Jackson did hit him for a long TD last weekend. Given his recent upside, I think he’s a fine large field tournament play as I think this Kentucky pass defense is overrated. They’ve faced a ton of bad passing offenses, and coughed up 100+ yard receiving days to Ricardo Louis, Pharoh Cooper and Josh Malone.

Elite OptionsNONE

Secondary Options – Jamari Staples, Lamar Jackson (if he starts), Brandon Radcliff (if Bolin starts)

Kentucky

Kentucky is sitting on five wins so in addition to being a rivalry game, this is a big game for them to try to lock in bowl eligibility. Louisville was a very strong defensive team under Charlie Strong, but they’ve shown some signs of slippage under offensive minded Bobby Petrino. However, this Kentucky offense is pretty tough to get excited about. Drew Barker has replaced Patrick Towles at QB and didn’t flash a lot of fantasy potential in his first start last weekend with only 29 pass attempts and 129 passing yards against Charlotte. Based on that, I’ll be avoiding the entire UK passing attack here. Garrett Johnson is their leading WR, but he’s risky given the QB play.

The Kentucky running game has flashed big play potential at time but no RB sees a ton of volume. Stanley Boom Williams is the primary RB, but Jojo Kemp and Mikel Horton also get some time, especially Kemp. Despite missing two games with injuries, Williams does have five 100 rushing games on the year and is averaging 7.2 YPC. However his season high in carries is 18 so his upside is limited due to his volume.

Elite OptionsNONE

Secondary Options – Stanley Boom Williams

Clemson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksO/U 55

Clemson Tigers South Carolina Gamecocks
Rd. Proj. Rd. Spread Pace Pace Hm. Proj. Hm. Spread
36.25 -17.5 78.09 64.27 18.75 17.5
PaYd/G RuYd/G PaYd/G RuYd/G
Offense 289.73 211.27 Offense 206.27 152.27
Opp Def 206.36 215.73 Opp Def 155.36 123.36
Opp Def Rank 59th 100th Opp Def Rank 3rd 19th

Clemson

This is typically a fun rivalry game, but this year should be very lopsided as the top ranked Tigers should wipe the floor with a terrible South Carolina team that lost to the Citadel last weekend. Deshaun Watson continued his string of huge fantasy outings last weekend and is at the top of the list if you’re spending at QB. He’s thrown for at least 297 yards in each of his past four games, while also scoring a rushing TD in five of his last six games. South Carolina particularly struggles against the run as they allow 5.1 YPC so both Watson and RB Wayne Gallman should have productive afternoons on the ground. Their passing defense is nothing to write home about either so I see no reason to not expect Watson’s recent tear to continue.

His top targets have been Artavis Scott, Deon Cain and Jordan Leggett, but Charone Peake has started to emerge recently as well. Scott continues to be very cheap on FD, but he’s more of a PPR guy and just isn’t getting the red-zone targets. At some point, he should pop a screen play for a TD, but unless he does, the upside just hasn’t been there. He’s a fine secondary option as a cheap WR3, but he’s not a guy I’d go all in on as Watson is starting to spread it around. The TDs have actually been flowing to teammates Deon Cain, who has now scored in four straight games, and Peake, who has scored in three of his last four games. Cain is still sub $5,000 on FD, and makes for a rock solid punt. At TE, Jordan Leggett’s production has been down of late, and his TDs have gone to Cain and Peake. Given the thin position, he’s in play on FD as a TE, but I’d probably prefer a guy like Bucky Hodges.

Wayne Gallman is expected to return at RB for this one and he’s one of my favorite mid-range RB plays on the day. He continues to ply under the radar due to Watson but he’s been very productive and should have a bid day against this poor run defense.

Elite Options – Deshaun Watson, Wayne Gallman

Secondary Options – Deon Cain, Artavis Scott, Charone Peake, Jordan Leggett (FD)

South Carolina

Clemson features one of the better defenses in the nation as they are top five against the pass and top 20 against the run. South Carolina is very limited offensively and carries a team total under 20 points so they’re a team that can mostly be avoided. Their one gamebreaker is WR Pharoh Cooper who had a monster game against the Citadel, but was held in check the three weeks prior. Teams can really focus on taking him away and Clemson features one of the better cornerbacks in the nation in Mackensie Alexander so this sets up as a very tough matchup for him this weekend. WR is very thin this week so I don’t hate the play but I’m keeping my expectations in check.

Elite OptionsNONE

Secondary Options – Pharoh Cooper


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