CFB Grind Down: Week 13 - Early Slate - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-28 01:14:00

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans – O/U 46.5

Penn State

This game checks in with a Vegas total under 50 and weather can always be a factor in this area of the country. The weakness of this Michigan State defense has been their secondary, although J. T. Barrett would tell you otherwise. Christian Hackenberg has continued to be a disappointment and is unlikely to be able to take advantage of their weakness. He’s not an option and the only potential option in this PSU passing attack is their top WR Chris Godwin. He does have some big play ability and the Michigan State secondary can allow some big plays. If the weather is ok, he could be worth a tournament dart throw.

Penn State is a run heavy offense and they have a very good freshman back in Saquon Barkley. However, the strength of this MSU defense is also their ability to stop the run and they’ve held some potent rushing attacks like Oregon and Ohio State in check. There are some solid running backs on this slate and Barkley isn’t cheap so I’ll pass this week.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Chris Godwin

Michigan State

This is a very unappealing game from a fantasy perspective as Penn State also features a quality defense. The Spartans pulled off last week’s upset without QB Connor Cook and his status is still up in the air. Back-up QB Tyler O’Connor was very unimpressive and really hurt the production of top WR Aaron Burbridge. This is a quality Penn State defense so if Cook is out then I’ll pass on Burbridge altogether, but if Cook plays then Burbridge is in play as a secondary option.

This is a run first offense but they have been RBBC as Gerard Holmes, and L.J. Scott split carries last weekend and Madre London could be a factor as well. I’d lean towards Holmes but there’s not enough volume here for me to roster him.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Aaron Burbridge

Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers – O/U 48.5

Alabama

This Alabama offense really boils down to just two players in their RB Derrick Henry and top WR Calvin Ridley. Henry is my favorite RB option on this slate by a fairly wide margin. He’s much tougher to fit on DK due to the tight cap but on FD you can easily work him in. He should be well rested for this one as he had a light workload against Charleston Southern last weekend. He has multiple TDs in five straight and should return to his workload of 25+ carries against a suspect Auburn run defense. Auburn is 80th in rushing yards allowed per game and were pantsed earlier this year by a similar big back in Leonard Fournette. They have shown some improvement down the stretch as they got their best DL Carl Lawson back from injury. However, Henry has been matchup up proof and while Auburn could provide resistance early, he should eventually wear them down in the 2nd half en route to another big outing.

The other player worth rostering is Ridley. The Tide are a run heavy offense but they will scheme the ball into Ridley’s hands as he has at least 5 receptions in six straight. He has some big play ability and with all the attention that Henry draws, he gets some favorable one on one matchups in the secondary. As mentioned it’s a weak WR crop today so he’s a guy I’ll work into some lineups.

Elite Options – Derrick Henry

Secondary Options – Calvin Ridley

Auburn

Auburn has actually been one of the few teams to have success against this Tide defense recently as guys like Cam Newton and Nick Marshall have given them fits. However, there’s no Newton or Marshall under center for the Tigers this year and their offense has taken a huge step backwards. This Alabama defense has been lights out against the run so I don’t have any interest in the Auburn running game, which is not as good as it normally is. Alabama can be prone to the big play so the only guy maybe worth a peek would be their big play WR Ricardo Louis. However, the Auburn QB play has been very bad this year as neither Jeremy Johnson or Sean White have been very good. Auburn’s going to need to hit a big play if they are going to keep this one somewhat close and I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some trick plays from them, as they are unlikely to be able to move the ball with any consistency against this defense.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers – O/U 43

Wisconsin

This is the 2nd of a trio of Big 10 games that carry very low Vegas totals. The status of top RB Corey Clement is in question as he wasn’t 100% last weekend and then he received a disorderly conduct this week for an offcampus fight. It looks like Wisconsin will keep any discipline internal so he’s a very risky roster. His status also affects the backup RB Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal so this is a situation that should be avoided as Minnesota isn’t a premier matchup anyway.

It sounds like Joel Stave will play in this one but there is some injury risk, and he’s not a guy that’s appealing for fantasy purposes anyway. Austin Traylor has returned at TE so he downgrades Troy Fumagalli. Alex Erickson is their top WR and can be a solid PPR option, but this is a game that can easily be faded.

UPDATE – I wrote this game up Tuesday night and there has been some clarity at RB as Clement will not travel for his discipline issues. Ogunbowale should see the majority of the work and while he hasn’t been a great runner, he has been a solid receiver out of the backfield. That puts him in play on a PPR site like DK. Wisconsin has also tended to throw more with Clement out so it’s a small boost for Stave and Erickson as well. There’s enough value on FD where I don’t feel the need to dig that deep but Dare and Stave in particular are cheap on DK if you need value.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Alex Erickson (DK), Dare Ogunbowale (DK), Joel Stave (DK)

Minnesota

As mentioned this game is very unappealing and Wisconsin comes in with a top 10 run and pass defense. I typically avoid rostering players against the Wisconsin and I’ll stay that route with a below average Minnesota offense. QB Mitch Leidner does offer some running upside but he’s a very volatile passer. He’s dirt cheap and has actually been hitting value of late, including doing so against some pretty salty defenses (Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State). He’s not a guy that I personally can trust but he’s playing well if you need a punt as a QB2. As mentioned they are a run first offense so top WR KJ Maye is very up and down, but he is clearly their top option

Shannon Brooks has taken over as the lead back and had a huge day against Illinois last weekend. He’s going to be a very good back down the road, but Wisconsin is allowing just 3.2 YPC so his upside is limited here and I’ll target some backs that are in better matchups.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Mitch Leidner

Northwestern Wildcats at Illinois Fighting Illini – O/U 41

Northwestern

This is the final game of the low scoring Big 10 trio of games and I’ll likely just fade all three completely, with the exception of Justin Jackson. He started the season strong then had a terrible middle of the year, but is finishing very strong. The volume is back as he’s getting heavy usage piling up 35, 28 and 24 carries over his past three weeks. He’s topped 100 yards in each game, including two very tough run defenses in Wisconsin and Penn State. Illinois allowed three rushing TDs last week to Shannon Brooks and also coughed up a monster day to the Iowa running game so Jackson should be able to continue his hot streak in this one.

The Northwestern passing game is brutal as Clayton Thorson is a bad passer and gets very low usage so the entire passing attack can easily be avoided.

Elite Options – Justin Jackson

Secondary Options – NONE

Illinois

Illinois is a below average offense with a team total under 20 and this Northwestern defense has been solid all year long. There’s not much to like here as QB Wes Lunt has been disappointing this year. He does really target Geronimo Allison out wide and he can occasionally be a quality PPR play, but he’s struggled of late.

RB Josh Ferguson also sees solid work in the passing game so he’s a guy who is in play on DK only. He did log 20 carries last weekend but that came with Ke’Shawn Vaughn out of the lineup. With Vaughn expected to return this weekend, Ferguson should return to his 12 carries or so but will continue to be a factor in the passing game.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Josh Ferguson (DK), Geronimo Allison (DK)

Cincinnati Bearcats at East Carolina Pirates – O/U 67.5

Cincinnati

Our final two games are much more exciting and DK only. This one checks in with a total of 67 points, but the problem for Cincinnati is that we’re not sure whether Gunner Kiel or Hayden Moore is going to draw the start at QB. This is an early game so hopefully word breaks as neither is overly expensive and this is a solid matchup. If we get word as to who draws the start then either is a fine option as both are very capable passers.

Cincinnati can really spread the ball around at WR, but Shaq Washington and Chris Moore have really stepped up of late. Moore has been particularly hot with TD in four straight games, while Washington has been a very steady performer since Week 4. Given the lack of elite WR options, both are very rosterable. With the emergence of Moore and Washington the rest of the Cincy WR have fallen by the wayside so I’d stick to just Moore or Washington here.

The Cincinnati RB situation is a mess as three RB (Tion Green, Mike Boone and Hosey Williams) all get carries so it’s a situation to avoid.

Elite Options – Chris Moore/Shaq Washington

Secondary Options – Gunner Kiel/Hayden Moore

East Carolina

We have a similar situation with East Carolina as it’s tough to predict whether Blake Kemp or James Summers sees the majority of time at QB. Kemp is the better passer while Summers is elite runner. Kemp saw the majority of the action last game and had 50 pass attempts, while Summers played the majority of the USF game. Cincinnati has really struggled against the run as they’re allowing 5.3 YPC and 202 rushing YPG so we should definitely see some Summers in this one. Kemp is going to draw the start, but they’re also going to stick with a 2 QB system so I’m expecting to see both.

ECU has a big PPR WR in Isaiah Jones, but the problem is that he’s much more effective with Kemp in at QB than Summers. We’re obviously not going to know ECU’s game plan so he comes with some risk if Summers gets a ton of run, but also presents big upside on a full point PPR site like DK.

Chris Hairston is ECU’s top RB, but he typically doesn’t top 15 carries per game. The matchup is great, but with the uncertain volume, he’s a GPP only play.

Elite Options – Isaiah Jones (if Kemp is the QB)

Secondary Options – Chris Hairston

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