CFB Grind Down: Week 13 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-30 02:45:14

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs – O/U 64

Mississippi State

Elite Plays

Dak Prescott ($10,200 FD, $8,400 DK) – Prescott has been a GPP play for me in the last few weeks but comes front and center here against Ole Miss today. He has found a reliable WR in Fred Ross and the Mississippi State offense is running like a well oiled machine. This game has one of the highest totals on the board and it should be close, meaning Prescott is going to have to score at the end of the game. He has major upside and while he may not get 57 points like last week, a 30 point game seems a mere certainty.

Fred Ross ($6,200 FD, $5,100 DK) – The 5,100 price on DraftKings is fairly hilarious for a guy getting as many targets in the offense as ross and who has gone over 100 in 3 straight and caught at least 8 balls in those three. He is solid on FD as well, but we should again see near 50% ownership on Ross in the late slate here on DK.

Secondary Plays

De’Runnya Wilson ($6,700 FD, $5,700 DK) – Even with Wilson back, Ross still managed to have a huge game and Wilson’s price is higher than Ross so I would imagine the masses will be on Ross making your GPP gamble Wilson on this slate. De’Runnya is more of the red zone target as he is stronger and less of the possession receiver and more of the big play, so his upside is higher but his consistency is not as great.

Ole Miss

Elite Plays

Chad Kelly ($9,400 FD, $6,900 DK) – I really like the price on DK as Kelly has been great in the last few weeks as he gets over the middle of the season slump that really effected him and the Ole Miss offense. Kelly has been doing it through the air and on the ground and should have another solid game in a big over/under close game in the Egg Bowl. Both teams have quite average defenses and Kelly is locked in.

Laquon Treadwell ($7,900 FD, $6,500 DK) – Treadwell is one of the best WRs in the nation and has scored a TD in 6 straight games. He should keep that streak going again this week with a big rivalry matchup with the Bulldogs. He has tailed off a bit in previous weeks but LSU is not a great matchup and his other games were still solid. This should be a great game with lots of points and we can expect Treadwell to be one of the top WRs on the slate.

Secondary Plays

Evan Engram ($2,900 FD, $3,400 DK) – I wouldn’t use him on DK but on FD where you need a TE and there are really only 3 TEs to pick from on this slate he is in play as the cheapest option. He has scored in 2 of the last four games and usually grabs about 4 passes for 30 yards. You could do worse.

Florida State Seminoles at Florida Gators – O/U 43

Florida State

Elite Plays

None – Many would say that they really want Dalvin Cook today but at his prices across the industry I would rather just roll with Fournette for a bit cheaper. This Florida defense is great and the over/under of this game sits around three touchdowns for each team. I am not enamored with any of the plays here as I think Florida really runs this game into the ground and there are not many possessions.

Secondary Plays

Dalvin Cook ($9,800 FD, $8,200 DK) – I cannot see myself ever using Cook on FD at that price, not considering the matchup here. He may go for 100 and 2 tds but I feel there are others with better matchups and lower prices that could do the same thing. Cook is a stud and is one of the top RBs in the country along with being extremely consistent, but I just do not see it here.

Kermit Whitfield ($5,500 FD, $4,500 DK) – Whitfield after being extremely quiet for a few games is back scoring 2 TDs per game even with the problems in the FSU QB situation. This is an interesting game against a very stout Florida defense and Whitfield is one of the lowest guys on my radar, but should be extremely low owned in GPPs.

Florida

Elite Plays

None – Florida’s offense is a dumpster fire and they will hand it off to Taylor 25-30 times per game and have him run straight into his lineman. He is going to get like 3 yards per carry against a solid FSU D-Line and should really be avoided here. Actually, I am avoiding the entire Florida offense who just has no upside whatsoever.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Cardinal – O/U 56

Notre Dame

Elite Plays

DeShone Kizer ($8,600 FD, $7,500 DK) – I like Kizer this week who has surprised everyone and been underpriced for most of the season. He was overpriced last week against the top defense in college football but against Stanford in a higher over/under game should have a little more room to throw and to run. Prosise is doubtful right now so this would put the onus more on Kizer to throw and to make things happen himself which is always good for fantasy.

Secondary Plays

Will Fuller ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK) – I am looking for more than 3 catches for 70 yards against Stanford which I am certain Fuller can produce especially if Kizer is throwing a lot. Boston College is a great defense, but Fuller was almost invisible in the game before that as well. I am a little bit worried about his recent couple of games but Fuller is still a star and Stanford will force Notre Dame to make long plays to Fuller. With his price still expensive, he is a GPP play for me.

Josh Adams ($5,800 FD, $5,900 DK) – With Prosise doubtful this week with a high ankle sprain, Adams should again see a great chunk of carries and in the last couple of games before the BC game he went over 100 yards. If he gets a full workload we should again see 100 yards and a TD out of the freshman, but I would also expect to see a lot of Kizer as well. This is a risky play until we know Prosise’s status, and even then at this price it is still a bit risky.

Stanford

Elite Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($9,500 FD, $8,500 DK) – McCaffrey just keeps plugging along gaining yard after yard after yard on the ground, touching the ball on kickoff returns and basically doing everything. The kid is a tank out there and will touch the ball an insane amount of times which is what we want in fantasy. Teams’ focus has always been on stopping him and they still cannot so he is well worth the salary you are paying at this point despite Notre Dame’s solid defense.

Secondary Plays

Austin Hooper ($3,800 FD, $3,800 DK) – Hooper is again in play on FD due to the TE spot and I would not use him on DK. Hooper has cooled a bit and only scored once in the last 3 games but I expect a TD in this one as Notre Dame’s passing defense is extremely strong and he may be the only way to get in the end zone when they stack the box to stop McCaffrey in the red zone. Big TE’s catch bit TDs in big games, and Hooper should get his looks today.

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers – O/U 55

Texas A&M

Elite Plays

None – I am not looking to use anyone here against an LSU defense ranked in the top 20 and allowing less than 220 yards passing per game. Texas A&M was able to do damage against Vandy, but Vanderbilt is no LSU and A&M should have a much harder time moving the football in this one.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Allen ($6,000 FD, $6,700 DK) – Allen’s price on FD is very attractive, but on a one QB site you really want your QB to have major upside and I am just not sure Allen possesses that here against LSU. Because of Allen likely starting, the WRs have higher upside than with Murray starting and Allen could potentially benefit from some game flow being behind at the end of the game. The over/under has this for 3.5 TDs for Texas A&M so there are better spots.

Christian Kirk ($5,000 FD, $5,800 DK) – The freshman burst onto the scene with Allen early in the year and was a great target until Texas A&M started to struggle and he fell off. He is one game off a 9 catch 120 yard 2 TD performance and Allen clearly loved Kirk when they were together earlier. I think Kirk’s value is boosted a bit here and I am going to ignore the poor performance in the previous game and roll him in some GPPs.

LSU

Elite Plays

*Leonard Fournette ($8,700 FD, $8,600 DK) – Fournette gets a great opportunity here to really get back on track before the season closes. Texas A&M has a terrible rushing defense giving up over 200 yards per game and despite struggling lately, Fournette is still getting around 25 carries per game. If he is really the beast we think he is, he should run wild on this struggling rush defense and this is the cheapest we have been able to get him at for a long time.

Secondary Plays

Malachi Dupre ($5,600 FD, $4,300 DK) – Dupre has emerged as a great target for Harris in this offense and while I was not on any of these WRs earlier in the year they really have improved. With the running game still front and center and likely to dominate the game, Dupre is a GPP play who could take a couple of quick passes to the house in the right situation. He is still cheap and has major upside.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys – O/U 68

Oklahoma

Elite Plays

Baker Mayfield ($9,200 FD, $8,600 DK) – With Dak Prescott, Mayfield is my top target of the day at QB. He is in the highest projected over/under of the day in the air raid offense (which has been running the ball a lot more) and will be in a close game with Oklahoma State almost the entire day. Oklahoma is only 7 point favorites so we can expect Mayfield to throw and throw some more to his many weapons and also use his legs a little bit. Oklahoma State has a terrible pass defense, allowing 250 yards per game so Mayfield should have no problems breaking value.

Sterling Shepard ($7,900 FD, $6,800 DK) – Extremely expensive on both sites for a WR, Shepard has been great in the last two games catching 8 and 14 balls and just shattering value thresholds. We should see another monster game from the #1 WR in this one with Mayfield at the helm and Oklahoma State’s terrible pass defense being exploited. Look for Shepard to score again this week with 10 catches and 150 yards.

Secondary Plays

Samaje Perine ($8,300 FD, $7,500 DK) – Perine has been the workhorse in the last few weeks rushing for over 150 yards both weeks with over 25 carries both weeks against Baylor and TCU. We can expect the same type of numbers against Oklahoma State in terms of carries I think here, but I am also skeptical that they are going to be able to have as much success running against fairly solid front 4 of the Cowboys. Oklahoma State’s rush defense is their strong suit so if OSU scores and gets out early, we could see Perine lose some touches and some points.

Oklahoma State

Elite Plays

James Washington ($7,200 FD, $6,300 DK) – Washington comes into this game as the clear cut #1 for Mason Rudolph after taking 2 passes to the house last week. Washington is solid especially considering that Oklahoma State likely will have to pass in this one. He is directly tied to Rudolph’s success as Walsh still gets a lot of looks around the goal line and Washington’s longer TD passes score Rudolph his TDs.

Secondary Plays

Mason Rudolph ($7,400 FD, $6,400 DK) – Rudolph is still a solid option but his upside is limited as he gives up work to Walsh around the goal line so any TDs that would happen down there are almost always vultured. He has still made value in the last few games and despite Oklahoma having a solid pass defense, at home I think Rudolph can affect the game in some very solid ways and make value at this price point. I doubt we ever see a 50 fantasy point game unless he is getting all of the looks which is why he is a secondary to me.

Jump to Page 1 2