CFB Grind Down: Week 14 - Early Slate - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-12-04 21:18:08

Georgia State Panthers at Georgia Southern Eagles – O/U 58.5

Georgia State

Now we get into the Fanduel only Sunbelt conference games and I definitely wouldn’t overlook these games as there should be plenty of fantasy potential. Georgia State isn’t necessarily one of those teams though and they check in with the lowest projected total of the Sunbelt teams at just 21 points. Georgia Southern is one of the better Sunbelt teams and they feature a rock solid defense. Georgia State averages over 70 snaps per game and is a pass heavy team so I’d cross their RB off the list.

Their QB Nick Arbuckle routinely tops 40 pass attempts per game and typically tops 300 yards passing. With Georgia State expected to be trailing I think the yardage could once again be there, but I’m concerned about how often they find the endzone. At $8,400, I’d much rather just spend up to the top 3 QB or save with Nick Mullens so Arbuckle isn’t too high on my list. If Georgia Southern jumps out on top there could be some garbage time though. That is what occurred last year as Southern won 69-31, but Arbuckle piled up 400 passing yards and 4 TDs.

Their WR are cheaper so they’d be where I’d look if you want exposure to this passing attack. Penny Hart (64/966/7) is the leading WR on the year, but Robert Davis (57/932/5) is right on his heels. Davis is minimum price on FD so I think he provides more value than Hart. Their top WR from last year Donovan Harden has returned after an early season injury, but with the emergence of Hart, he hasn’t been able to get on track this season. However, he went BONKERS in this one last year as he had 11 receptions for 186 yards and 4 TDs. Given his production this year, he’s likely a 3% or less owned player and is minimum price if you want to throw a tournament dart.

Tyler Higbee is the premier tight end option, but Keith Rucker is next in line. He’s a nice tournament pivot as he’s shown big upside for a tight end with multiple two TD games and had 10 receptions for 154 yards in his last outing. Overall, one of these Georgia State pass catching options could be in for a very nice afternoon but it’s a bit of a mystery as to who, so I prefer them as tournament targets.

Elite Options – Keith Rucker

Secondary Options – Nick Arbuckle, Penny Hart, Robert Davis, Donovan Harden

Georgia Southern

As mentioned this Georgia Southern offense ran wild on Georgia State last year with 69 points and 613 rushing yards. That’s right I said 613 rushing yards. They check in with a team total of almost 40 points in this one and with Georgia State yielding 4.5 YPC they should find a ton of running room again.

Georgia Southern is a triple option offense so their volume can be somewhat unpredictable. Matt Breida is the guy who sees the most consistent volume and has topped 20 carries in three of his last four games. Like Harden, he also went BONKERS as he ran for 201 yards and four TDs on only 12 carries last year. He’s one of the elite options on this slate and right there with Larry Rose as my favorite RB. Alfred Ramsby also gets involved for 12 to 15 carries a game, and has shown a nose for the endzone with 11 TDs on the year. He also had a big game last year 92 rushing yards and two TDs.

Kevin Ellison is the starting QB but with Georgia Southern being a triple option attack, he gets very little usage in the passing game. He does provide some running upside but he is very volatile and there are much safer options.

Elite Options – Matt Breida

Secondary Options – Alfred Ramsby

New Mexico State Aggies at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks – O/U 60.5

New Mexico State

One of the problems with these Sunbelt teams is that injury info and news can be even harder than normal to come by. At QB both Andrew Allen and Nick Jeanty could see some time. Allen should continue to start for the injured Tyler Rogers, and has actually thrown seven TD passes over his last two weeks. He’s minimum price on FD so you could take a shot in a GPP that he sees 90% of the snaps. There’s actually plenty of value this week so I’m not sure it’s necessary but it’s an option.

I think New Mexico State can do whatever they want on the ground so my favorite play from this game is Larry Rose III. His price tag is very reasonable and he’s a guy who brings 200 yard rushing upside to the table. ULM is 112th in rushing yards allowed per game and he also lit them up last year for 229 rushing yards and two TDs.

The NMSU passing attack is murkier as the production has been spread around and no receiver has topped 700 receiving yards. Tyrian Taylor is their leading WR but that is on the heels of one monster outing and he’s been quiet of late. Teldrick Morgan has missed three games with injuries, but he’s flashed solid upside and was their top WR last year so he’d be my favorite WR target, but I’m all aboard the Rose train here.

Elite Options – Larry Rose III

Secondary Options – Andrew Allen (GPP punt), Teldrick Morgan

ULM

These are two bad teams but also two bad defenses so there could be some offensive production. Like New Mexico State, there is some uncertainty at QB as Garrett Smith is questionable to play. If he sits then Earnest Carrington would draw the start so it’s a situation to monitor to see if word leaks as to the starter. New Mexico State features one of the nation’s worst passing and rushing defenses so they’re a defense to take advantage of. Smith actually leads ULM in carries and their top RB Ben Luckett rarely tops 10 carries so I’d avoid the ULM RBs. If Smith does start, he possesses solid upside while Carrington is much more of an unknown.

New Mexico State is 120th in passing yards allowed per game and ULM does have a trio of WR that could be interesting in Marcus Green, Ajalen Holley and Rashon Ceaser. Green and Holley are their leading WR on the year, and Green has 20 receptions over his past two weeks. I’m somewhat intrigued by Ceaser as he missed the majority of the season with an injury but has apparently returned to action. He’s been very quiet since returning from injury, but he’s pretty talented. He torched Georgia in the season opener and this is Senior Day so maybe ULM schemes the ball into his hands more. He is showing up as questionable on the Don Best injury report so it’s a situation to monitor though. They’re similar to the Georgia State WR in that either of the three could have a big day, but they’re GPP only plays as there is uncertainty.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Garrett Smith/Earnest Carrington, Rashon Ceaser (check injury), Marcus Green, Ajalen Holley

Texas State Bobcats at Arkansas State Red Wolves – O/U 70

Texas State

Texas State is likely to get blown out here as they face first place Arkansas State. Their top RB Robert Lowe is questionable with turf toe, and while he did run for 200 yards in this matchup last year, the injury situation is scary. Also, with Arkansas State featuring a quality run defense this season, I’d avoid this situation.

Arkansas State is more vulnerable to the pass, so while I don’t think it’s necessary, the Texas State passing game would make for the better target. Their QB Tyler Jones gets solid usage in the running game and sometimes gets 60 combined running and passing attempts. Their “leading” WR is CJ Best but he only has 496 receiving yards on the season so Jones is really the only player worth a look here simply due to his volume and Arkansas State’s weak pass defense.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Tyler Jones

Arkansas State

Arkansas State checks in with a team total of 47 points and should do whatever they please to a Texas State defense that is 109th against the pass and 124th against the run. The Arkansas State running game is very tough to figure out though as Michael Gordon is the starter, but his volume has been way down this season. Warren Wand and Johnston White also see carries, and White in particular has been a TD vulture with 13 on the season. You could take a stab with one of these guys as Texas State allows 5.8 YPC but it’s really a dart throw as to who gets the production.

The safer way to attack this porous Texas State defense is through QB Fredi Knighten as he gets work in the running game and passing game. He was banged up to start the year, but he’s put up big outings in the past and has really picked it up over his last two games. He’s right there in the top tier of QB and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him end up as the top DFS QB on the day. At WR, Tres Houston (30/506/10), JD McKissic (48/492/1) and Dijon Paschal (24/500/3) all see targets. Houston’s price is really elevated for a guy with only 30 receptions so I’d much rather target McKissic or Paschal if you’re looking at Arkansas State WR. Overall, Knighten spreads it around and is a threat with his legs so he’s not a guy you need to handcuff to a WR though.

Elite Options – Fredi Knighten

Secondary Options – Michael Gordon, Johnston White, J.D. McKissic, Tres Houston, Dijon Paschall

Troy Trojans at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns – O/U 58.5

Troy

These are two bad football teams that only have combined for 7 wins but this one should be close and has a solid total of 58.5 points. Troy tends to really spread the ball around and are a sub-par offense so there’s not elite option here. Their QB Brandon Silvers has only topped 300 passing yards one time this season and has only 2,000 passing yards so he’s not a guy on my radar. Their top RB Brandon Burks has also been fairly pedestrian with under 900 rushing yards and only seven rushing TDs. He has been better of late but this is a very deep RB slate so he’s a large field dart throw only.

The most attractive target here is Teddy Ruben (55/748/7), who is fairly priced, and this ULL passing defense is 80th in passing yards allowed per game. He’s not a top target but if he fits as a WR3 then he’s a solid option.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Teddy Ruben

Louisiana Lafayette

ULL’s QB play has been awful so I’d avoid the situation completely and the only two players here of note are Elijah McGuire and Jamal Robinson. I haven’t been following ULL very closely and was actually shocked when I saw that McGuire is under 1,000 rushing yards on the year. He looked terrific last season while splitting time and I figured he’d be in for a monster year. Apparently his shoulder has been banged up all season so that looks like the primary reason for his somewhat average year. I’m leaning towards Breida and Rose III as my top RB combo, but if McGuire’s shoulder is ok then he could absolutely shred this defense so I’ll have tournament exposure to him. He ran for 169 yards and two TDs on only 14 carries against Troy last year and has 200 rushing yard upside against Troy’s 85th ranked rushing defense.

Their top WR Jamal Robinson (52/807/5) is also pretty talented, but he’s limited by ULL’s poor QB play. When they do pass, they do really look to get him the ball and he’s racked up 29 receptions over his past three weeks, including two games with over 180 receiving yards.

Elite Options – Elijah McGuire (GPP)

Secondary Options – Jamal Robinson

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