CFB Grind Down: Week 14 - Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-12-06 17:19:31

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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Temple Owls at Houston Cougars – O/U 54.5

Temple

Temple checks in with a pedestrian projected total of 24 points, but should get a pace bump as UH does like to play fast. The strength of this Temple offense is their running game and RB Jahad Thomas. He was banged up down the stretch of the season but looked better last weekend with 21 carries for 119 yards and two TDs. I would expect Temple to try to establish their ground game and control pace as they don’t want to get into a shootout with UH, so they should lean on him early. That won’t necessarily be easy to do as UH does actually feature a quality run defense that held a potent Navy run game to 3.9 YPC last weekend and yields just 3.5 YPC on the season (14th). There are plenty that disagree with me as to Thomas so I don’t hate the play, but there are other RB I’m personally targeting more, particularly on the larger FD slate.

UH has been more susceptible to the pass this year as they are 99th in passing yards allowed per game and if UH jumps out to a lead then Temple could be forced to the air more times than normal. P.J. Walker hasn’t flashed a ton of upside, even in great matchups, so he’s a guy that’s only in play on a 2 QB site like DK if you need some savings at the position. Given UH’s weaker pass defense, I don’t mind Temple leading WR Robby Anderson as a cheap WR3 or Flex option. He’s typically good for 4 to 6 catches a game and should have a better opportunity to find the endzone in this one.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Jahad Thomas, Robby Anderson, P.J. Walker

Houston

Temple had a two week hiccup defensively against SMU and UCF, but they’ve otherwise been a very good defense. As a result this isn’t one of the best weeks to target the UH offense and their team total of 30 points is 11 below their season average of 41. Greg Ward, Jr. did return from injury last weekend and looked fully healthy as he ripped apart a quality Navy defense. This will be another tough test as Temple has been solid defensively, particularly against the run. However, they have really struggled against dual threat QB as Matt Davis ran for 100 yards, Deshone Kizer ran 143 yards and two TDs (442 total yards and 3 TDs), and Quinton Flowers ran for 90 yards and a TD (320 total yard and 3 TDs). I’m leaning towards the QBs in the WKU/Southern Miss as the top two cash game options due to the shootout potential, but Ward is next in line and always brings big upside due to his legs. At RB, Kenneth Farrow’s status is still up in the air so given the tougher matchup and other solid RB options, it’s a situation I’ll avoid.

Demarcus Ayers has put together 28 receptions over his past three weeks and had a big week against Navy last weekend. He’s clearly the Cougar’s go to option in the passing game, but this should be a tougher test as Temple has also defended the pass well . His price is really juiced on FD so I’m not sure I can pay the tag there, but on DK he’s still affordable so that’s where I’d look to get my exposure to him.

Elite Options – Greg Ward, Jr.

Secondary Options – Demarcus Ayers

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – O/U 74

Southern Mississippi

Based on a DFS perspective this actually looks to be the top game on the slate as it checks in with a total of 74 points and both teams average over 70 plays per game. Southern Miss checks in with a team total of 33 points as they face a fast paced WKU team. In particular, WKU has struggled against the pass as they are 79th in passing yards allowed per game and the high flying WKU offense should keep the pressure on Southern Mississippi here. Nick Mullens is one of the top QB options on the day, and I particularly love his price tag on FD. He’s thrown for almost 4,000 yards as well as 35 TDs on the season and this game features plenty of shootout potential. He has three very good WR, and with WKU expected to be leading, he should threaten for 40+ pass attempts.

Mullens also has a trio of quality WR in Michael Thomas, Casey Martin, and D.J. Thompson. Thomas (56/1111/11) is the lead dog here and the top option for the Golden Eagles. His price is very fair around the industry and he’s one of the elite options at WR. Martin (72/819/7) is more of the possession WR, but he is coming at a nice discount on FD and provides cheaper exposure to this game. Thompson (51/729/6) is their third WR if you’re looking to get really off the radar.

Southern Miss also features a quality rushing attack, but the problem is nailing down whether to target Ito Smith (140/983/7) or Jalen Richard (177/1065/13). They’ve alternated big games with Richard leading in carries whereas Smith is more productive in the receiving game (41/466/3). On FD, Richard is a lot cheaper so I’d lean more towards him, but on DK they’re evenly priced so maybe you give the nod to the better receiving back in Smith.

Elite Options – Nick Mullens, Michael Thomas, Casey Martin (FD)

Secondary Options – Casey Martin (DK), Ito Smith, Jalen Richard, D. J. Thompson

Western Kentucky

The high flying Western Kentucky offense is projected to score 40 points and while Southern Miss has been solid defensively, they haven’t seen many offenses like WKU. Brandon Doughty is the elite play at QB if price isn’t a factor and is as safe it comes. He’s thrown for over 4,000 yards and has at least 3 passing TDs in each of his last 10 games. This game has definite shootout potential and will be played at a fast pace so another five or six passing TD effort is certainly in play.

He has plenty of options to throw to in Taywan Taylor, Tyler Higbee, Jared Dangerfield, Nicholas Norris, and even Anthony Wales out of the backfield. Taylor is the top option and has scored a TD in nine of his last ten games. His price has come way down on FD as it was sitting over $8,000 earlier this season. Their TE Higbee returned last weekend from injury and immediately produced a monster outing. He’s one of Doughty’s favorite redzone options and is right there with Jaylen Samuels as the top DFS TE in the country. Dangerfield was actually the top WR last season, but struggled with injuries at the beginning of the year and hasn’t been able to fully get on track this year. He’s flashed plenty of upside in his career so he’s a fine tournament option that should be low owned, but given his current role he’s too risky for cash games. Norris is a site specific play as he’s way too expensive on FD, but he’s an elite value play on DK to open up salary. He’s just $3,300 and is one of the few options sub $4,000 that is dependable. He typically catches 5 to 7 passes a week and has scored in 3 out of the past 4 weeks so he’s one of my favorite options on DK.

The WKU passing offense gets plenty of much warranted discussion, but their RB Anthony Wales has been very good as well. He was injured to start the year, but he’s topped 100 yards in six of his last seven games and also catches some balls out of the backfield. He’s a secondary option for me on FD as there are a ton of RB options, but on the smaller DK slate he’s arguably an elite option if you’re not rostering Doughty.

Elite Options – Brandon Doughty, Taywan Taylor, Tyler Higbee, Nicholas Norris (DK)

Secondary Options – Anthony Wales, Jared Dangerfield

Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears – O/U 68

Texas

Texas has a few injury situations to monitor as QB Jerrod Heard is questionable with a concussion. He’s been cleared to practice, but it’s unclear if he’ll play and Tyrone Swoopes is expected to draw the start. Both QBs have really struggled to throw the ball this season, but do possess some running upside. Based on that I’m ignoring the Texas WR. Baylor has been better against the run than the pass and if Heard is expected to see some time then I’d stay away from this situation completely. If Heard is ruled out, then you could take a look at Swoopes on DK as he calls his own number on the goalline a lot, but I’d prefer to stay away, especially on FD where his price is outrageous.

The bigger question for Texas is the status of Jonathan Gray as it affects the workload of Chris Warren, III. Both Gray and D’onta Foreman were out last weekend so Warren, III, stepped into a big workload and produced a historic day (25/276/4) against an embarrassing Texas Tech run defense. Foreman has already been ruled out for this week and if Gray sits then he should see similar high usage. The problem with Warren, III, is nailing down how much of his performance was him and how much was due to a Texas Tech run defense that is among the worst in the nation. Prior to last week, he had 18 carries for 88 yards on the season. His price jumped on FD to the point that I’m not really looking at him even if Gray is out. However, he’s still affordable on DK so if he Gray sits then he’s a viable option due to his workload at just $5,300. If Gray plays things become more murky as to his workload so I’d be more inclined to stay away.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Chris Warren, III (DK)

Baylor

Despite the fact that they are down to their 3rd string QB, Baylor checks in with a team total of 44 points so they’re not a team to ignore. This Texas defense has been bad against both the run and the pass so this really boils down to whether Baylor wants to attack via the pass or the run. Baylor is a tricky team to break down as Chris Johnson is an unknown at QB and due to the weather last weekend, we didn’t get a great look at the Baylor offense with him at QB. Every game log watcher will cross him off the list as the boxscore was not kind to him last weekend. However, the weather in that game was brutal and even an elite QB like Trevone Boykin really struggled so I’m not holding it against him. That should leave him low owned for tournaments so I think he’s an intriguing tournament option as the Baylor offensive system is very kind to QBs. He’s not a guy I’d trust in cash games as I think Baylor could lean on the ground game here, and he is still a 3rd string QB that has seen some time at WR this year. He did produce solid numbers against OSU and this Baylor WR corp can turn a 5 yard hitch into a 50 yard TD and the band playing.

The price of all the Baylor WRs has plummeted due to last week’s rain as well Baylor losing their top two QBs. Corey Coleman hasn’t shown the same connection with the Baylor backups that he did with Seth Russell, but his price has dropped to a point that I want exposure to him in tournaments. Based on his early season production we know he can put up a monster game and this Texas secondary is very young and vulnerable to the big play. Against OSU both of Johnson’s TD passes actually went to KD Cannon and Jay Lee, who are also very capable of breaking off big plays. Of the two, I’d definitely lean towards Cannon, who also happens to be minimum price on FD, and has shown solid rapport with the Baylor backups.

With the uncertainty at QB, I think Baylor could really try to pound a Texas run defense that is 98th in rushing yards allowed per game. That puts Devin Chafin and Shock Linwood squarely on my radar and the big question is the health of Linwood. He suited up last weekend but didn’t get his typical workload. I’d continue to monitor the situation but it sounds like he’s healthier this week and could return to his normal 20-25 carries, which should knock Chafin back down to 15 or so. In this matchup last year, Linwood ran for 148 yards and a TD on 28 carries and is a solid option as long as he’s cleared to go. Even if Lindwood returns I’m not crossing Chafin completely off my list. He’s carved out a role as the goal line back and has produced six rushing TDs over his last three games. With Baylor expected to put up 6 TDs here, I think this looks like a multi-TD game from Chafin and if word comes that Linwood is still limited then he jumps to one of my favorite options on the day.

Elite Options – Devin Chafin/Shock Linwood, Corey Coleman (GPP), KD Cannon (FD)

Secondary Options – Chris Johnson, KD Cannon (DK), Jay Lee

Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide – O/U 40

Florida

The Gators offense has been unable to get on track with Treon Harris under center as they scored TWO points last week against FSU and only managed 20 points in overtime the week prior against FAU. Now they draw a matchup with the top defense in the country in Alabama and have a team total of just 11 points. They might actually be more likely to score via special teams or a defensive TD and there’s just nothing to like. The passing game is a mess and their best offensive player is RB Kelvin Taylor but Alabama features the nation’s top ranked run defense.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – NONE

Alabama

This Alabama offense obviously revolves around Heisman frontrunner Derrick Henry who is on an absolute tear down the stretch. He had a an absurd 46 carries last weekend against Auburn and has topped 200 rushing yards in four of his last six games. At first glance, I thought I’d be inclined to fade Henry due to Florida’s 9th ranked rushing defense, however, digging into their schedule I’m not as worried. They did shut down Sony Michel, but the other 3 top backs they faced all had productive days: Jalen Hurd (28/102/2) , Leonard Fournette (31/180/2) and Dalvin Cook (26/183/2). They were containing Cook at halftime last week but due to their weak offense, their defense eventually wore down. Given Alabama’s elite defense, this game could follow a similar game script and Henry likely eventually wears this defense down. The bigger issue with Henry is his price as it’s really elevated on FD, and DK’s cap is very tight once again. Due to the small slate, value is tougher to come by and there are some solid small school RB options that I think provide better value. Based on that he’s not at the top of my list, but I don’t mind him for tournaments as the matchup isn’t as frightening as it looks on paper and there’s something to be said for his insane volume. Kenyan Drake could be back here so he may not get the 40 carries but with a Playoff berth on the line as well as a bowl layoff, I’d be very surprised if he didn’t top 25 carries here.

Outside of Henry there’s not a ton to like as this is a very run heavy offense and the Florida features a top notch pass defense and one of the better corners in the nation. Ardarius Stewart did find the endzone last week and almost had another TD, but Calvin Ridley is the top option and gets the most consistent volume. I don’t love the matchup but he is very cheap on FD so he’d be the guy I’d look to in the Bama passing game. Outside of the top TE options, it’s pretty gross so OJ Howard is in play at minimum price on FD.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Derrick Henry, Calvin Ridley, OJ Howard (FD)

West Virginia Mountaineers at Kansas State Wildcats – O/U 58

West Virginia

West Virginia is feasting on the bottom half of the Big 12 and has won four straight games. They draw another plus matchup here against a sub-par Kansas State team. The Wildcats have struggled defensively, especially against the pass as they are 124th in passing yards allowed per game. The problem is that West Virginia has really morphed into a run first team lately as Skyler Howard has been under 30 pass attempts in four straight games. He has picked up the production on the ground as he’s scored a rushing TD in four straight games. He’s really not an elite runner so I’m not sure how sustainable his rushing production is, but this matchup isn’t overly difficult. I wouldn’t go there on a 1 QB site but he’s in play as a cheaper QB2. As mentioned the passing volume is way down for WVU so their receivers have become very risky. With KSU’s struggles in the secondary, there are plays to be made downfield, but they’ll need to hit a big play as the volume may not be there. Their top threat is Shelton Gibson, who broke loose last week, but also totaled 1 catch for 9 yards in the prior three weeks combined. He’s a boom or bust GPP only option as his floor is non-existent.

With WVU focusing on the ground game, Wendell Smallwood has had a big season. He had an uncharacteristic bad game last weekend, but has otherwise topped 100 rushing yards seven times and has 1,300 rushing yards on the season. With this game expected to be more competitive than their last two, he should return to his 20+ carry volume and is a solid target, particularly on the smaller DK slate. Russell Shell can be an annoyance as he’ll vulture TDs and grabs 10 or so carries a game, but he’s not on the DFS radar at his price point.

Elite Options – Wendell Smallwood

Secondary Options – Shelton Gibson, Skyler Howard

Kansas State

Kansas State has a team total of almost 26 points, which struck me as a little high, as their offense is pretty uninspiring and West Virginia has been solid defensively against the lower half of the Big 12. KSU QB Joe Hubener is a very erratic passer and really torpedoes the entire KSU passing offense so I’d ignore the KSU WRs. However, he is very productive on the ground and gets 15+ carries a game. He also loves to call his own number so he’s a threat for a multi-TD game on the ground. This is an ok matchup against a WVU’s run defense that allows 4.3 YPC (62nd) and is 73rd in rushing YPG.

Other than Hubener there’s not much else to nail down with the KSU running game Charles Jones is the lead RB but Hubener steals goal line carries and they’ll also get their FB Winston Dimel involved. I definitely wouldn’t go there on FD, but Jones is sub $4,000 on DK so that would be the spot to use him if you need a punt.

Elite Options – NONE

Secondary Options – Joe Hubener, Charles Jones (DK)

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