CFB Grind Down - Week 3 Early Slate - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-19 14:31:28

Northwestern Wildcats at Duke Blue Devils – O/U 48

Northwestern

On the Northwestern side of the ball, there’s really no one I’m interested in outside of Justin Jackson. They’ve been a very run heavy team (three-to-one run-pass ratio so far), and Jackson is their workhorse. He had 28 carries and 134 yards in their opener against a tough Stanford defense, and with this one carrying just a 3 point spread, I think he’s a safe bet for 25+ carries in this one as well. Duke featured a sub-par run defense last season, and hasn’t been tested this year, so Jackson makes for a safe volume play with some upside.

Northwestern’s QB, Clayton Thorson, would only be in play as a cheap punt on DK. He’s not going to see a ton of volume in the passing game, but he did show some wheels against Stanford as he ran for 68 yards.

Duke

The Northwestern defense brought back eight starters on defense, and it’s shown so far as they stymied Stanford and then shut out a cream puff in Eastern Illinois. I’m avoiding the Duke RBs here, and the only guy who jumps out is their QB, Thomas Sirk, as a cheaper play on DK. He brings solid dual-threat ability to the table, as he is Duke’s leading rusher so far this season, and is a weapon inside the red-zone. He’s been better in the passing game than I thought he would be, and with his price below at $6,600 on both sites, he’s a solid value play. The other number that jumped out at me, is that Duke is fifth in plays-per-game so far this season. It’s a short sample size, but it’s definitely a figure to keep an eye on. His top WR has been Johnell Barnes, followed by T.J. Rahming. Both are cheap, but I would be careful about not getting too much exposure to this one due to Northwestern’s solid defense, as well as the fact that you don’t need to handcuff Sirk due to his running ability.

Georgia State Panthers at Oregon Ducks – O/U 72

Georgia State

Georgia State is a 45-point underdog, but there are a few plays that are worth a look, especially on DK where the pricing is so strict. They’re a pass heavy team and that could even be accentuated by game flow here. I wouldn’t touch their QB, Nick Arbuckle, in cash games, but he is very cheap on both sites, and he’s probably going to throw it upwards of 50 times in this one. The Oregon secondary has been shaky to start the year, and he should see some garbage time as well against the Oregon backups. Georgia State is only predicted to score around 14 points here, but based on their passing tendencies, both of those TDs should go to Arbuckle, but the question is whether he can avoid turnovers against the Oregon starters.

As far as the Georgia State wide receivers go, the first issue to monitor is the status of Donovan Harden. He’s their top WR and he’s yet to play this season. It looks like he’ll sit again, but check back closer to kickoff as he’s bare minimum on DK. If Harden sits then Penny Hart and Robert Davis should eat up the targets from Arbuckle, and like Harden, both are cheap. Hart had 11 receptions, 150 yards and two TDs last weekend, and will draw tons of attention from game log watchers, as well as his low price point. I’m expecting him to be popular, so if you’re looking for a pivot, then take a look at Davis here. He leads the team in receptions this season and was 2nd on the team last year with 50 receptions for 732 yards. Overall, they’re still 45 point underdogs, so there is certainly some risk here, and I’d be more inclined to get exposure to these guys on DK this weekend, as opposed to FD, where the cap isn’t as tight.

Oregon

The big thing to watch here is the status of Vernon Adams, who has a broken finger and is listed as a game time decision. If he sits then Jeff Lockie will draw the start and becomes an attractive value around the industry. He isn’t Vernon Adams or Marcus Mariota, but he knows this offense, and can distribute the football to his talented WRs, who will make the plays for him against an over-matched secondary. With Adams’ injury, I’ll likely pass even if he plays, as I’d worry about an early exit, but I’ll be on the Lockie-train if Adams sits.

UPDATE – I haven’t seen final confirmation but for what it is worth I have a subscription to the 247 network and the Oregon site is reporting Adams is out tomorrow.

Royce Freeman is flat out great, but given the high spread and the fact that some of the other top RBs are in line to see big volume, he’s a GPP only option for me as I’m concerned Oregon doesn’t ride him as hard here. I’d expect the Oregon backup RBs to get into the action here, so Kani Benoit and Tony Brooks James could be worth a look.

UPDATE – The Oregon site is also reporting that Royce Freeman will be extremely limited so I will have zero exposure to him, and am getting exposure to both Benoit and Brooks James. This could be a similar situation to the Wisconsin backs from last week where both get a solid shot, and I like the idea of a GPP team with them both. Again hopefully we can get some final confirmation on Freeman.

Oregon is very talented at WR, but the problem is that their depth really makes it tough to nail down the top target on a week-to-week basis. Adams’ favorite targets have been Bralon Addison, who looked fully recovered from his ACL injury, Charles Nelson and Byron Marshall. Given the spread, I’m unlikely to play the guessing game this weekend, but all have big play potential.

UPDATE – Last piece of new they reported was that Nelson is also going to be limited tomorrow so I’d only have exposure to Marshall and Addison and they get a small bump, but the blowout is still concerning.

Temple Owls at Massachusetts Minutemen – O/U 54.5

Temple

It’s been the Jahad Thomas show for the Owls this season. He was likely on very few people’s radars coming into the season as he had only 409 rushing yards all of last season. Through two games, he’s almost reached last year’s total as he’s racked up 328 rushing yards, including 135 yards and two TDs against a solid Penn State rush defense, and averaged 27.5 carries per game. I wouldn’t pay his tag on DK, but he’s in play for me almost everywhere else around the industry. This one only carries a spread of 10, and UMASS was gashed for 6.6 YPC and 390 rushing yards by a Colorado team that is not known for their running game.

The only other players on the radar would be their QB, PJ Walker, and their top WR, Robby Anderson. However, both would be very risky plays as Walker is dealing with a sore shoulder, and they’re really leaning on the run game to start the season, as Walker has only attempted 20 passes in each game. Walker’s injury further boosts Thomas’ stock in my opinion.

UMASS

The Colorado/UMASS was a popular target last week, and looked like a potential shootout, but only the Colorado running game held up their end of the bargain. The UMASS QB, Blake Frohnapfel, had some gaudy numbers last season, but he wasn’t great in the opener, and this Temple defense has been impressive, intercepting Gunner Kiel four times last week. I’ll pass on Frohnapfel here, but Temple did allow 427 passing yards last week, so I’m buying on Tajae Sharpe at his reduced price around the industry. He’s basically options one and two for UMASS, so he still got his last week, (11 receptions for 138 yards) despite the rest of the team struggling. Given his target volume, he’s a guy who is going to be in the $8,000 range very soon, so get him while he’s cheap. Outside of Sharpe, I don’t want to mess with this Temple defense too much, so that will likely be my only exposure. The only other option worth a peek would be their TE, Rodney Mills, on FD. He laid a goose egg last week, but Frohnapfel typically uses his TEs on a consistent basis.

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers – O/U 48.5

Auburn

The Jeremy Johnson-for-Heisman-campaign was quickly derailed as he’s looked terrible in his first two starts. He’s a talented kid, but he’s really struggling right now, and this LSU secondary is going to be a step up from both Louisville and Jacksonville State. I’m staying far away from him on most sites until he can get his issues sorted out. On DK, he’s just $5,900 and given the tough pricing structure, he’s worth a look because he’s a talented kid, so maybe he can get it together. His struggles have really hurt a guy like D’haquille Williams as well, so I’d only consider him on DK where his price is down. Williams has some narrative street story lines as he’s from Louisiana, but this is a tough spot to roll him out there, even at his reduced price points.

The guy I’m most interested in is Peyton Barber on DK. This certainly isn’t a an easy matchup and I typically avoid LSU altogether. However, he’s been very productive to start the year and has wrestled the number-one RB role away from Roc Thomas. The Auburn RB position has been fantasy gold for the past few seasons, and you’re likely getting 23-25 carries from him at just $4,800. Given the other options in his price range on DK, there’s something to be said for his volume.

LSU

The Tigers unsurprisingly took a very run-heavy approach in the opener, as they attempted only 14 passes, but had 47 rush attempts. That’s great news for Leonard Fournette as he ran wild in the opener against Mississippi State for 159 yards and three TDs. Auburn could be down one of their top defensive lineman in Carl Lawson, and is allowing 5.0 YPC through their first two games, so Fournette should be in line for another big outing here. I’m going to ignore the LSU passing attack, as there just isn’t enough volume there for me, although Travin Dural does have some big-play upside.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Ohio State Buckeyes – O/U 67

NIU

The Huskies are 35 point underdogs and are expected to get beat along the lines of 51-17. This is a tough spot, as Ohio State was asleep at the wheel for the large portions of last week’s game against Hawaii, so Urban Meyer likely got their attention in practice. I’d expect a better effort this week, which is bad news for NIU. They’re going to be a fun team to target this season when they get into MAC play, as they have a solid dual-threat QB, in Drew Hare, Joel Bouagnon at RB, and one of the nations leading WRs through two games in Kenny Golladay. For the most part, the sites have priced them down due to their matchup, but I’m not a big fan of this spot. I’d be most intrigued by Golladay on DK at $5,300 (he’s not available on FD) as he’s been heavily targeted in his first two games, and with this game likely getting out of hand, NIU should throw it more and also see some action against the OSU reserves.

Ohio State

Ohio State is strictly GPP for me as Cardale Jones and Ezekiel Elliot are both very expensive, and I’d prefer the secure volume of guys like Doughty and Matt Johnson at QB, or Jordan Howard and Leonard Fournette at RB. The blowout concerns me, and Ohio State is so deep, and Cardale, Barrett is still lurking. However, I said that last week, and Hawaii hung around long enough for Elliot to produce three TDs on 27 carries and 101 rushing yards.

Braxton Miller continues to look like the best combination of price and usage to get a piece of the Ohio State offense, as he’s sub $7,000 on both sites. In addition to his work at WR, he’s seeing some action in the Wildcat and has 14 carries through two games. Michael Thomas should be their top WR and he’s cheap enough on DK that I think he’s worth a peek in tournaments. Lastly, I’m never really a fan of going the backup RB route in CFB, but Curtis Samuel will be on some people’s radars and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Buckeyes back a little off Elliot after his 27 carries last week.

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