CFB Grind Down - Week 3 Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-22 14:14:25

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

NOTE – I haven’t factored weather into the equation at all, and our weather expert, Kevin Roth, did indicate some potential weather issues on Saturday so be sure to check out his report on Saturday morning prior to finalizing your lineups.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Texas A&M Aggies – O/U 65

Nevada

Nevada has lost some of their muster offensively due to the graduation of Cody Fajardo. Their new QB, Tyler Stewart, was fairly unimpressive in a loss to Arizona, as he threw for just 159 yards, but did throw two TDs. The A&M defense is much-improved to start the season, and features one of the best sets of defensive ends in the nation, so Stewart could be running for his life. The spread has ballooned to 34 points though, so you could see some garbage time here. Also, A&M does have a very physical game next weekend against Arkansas, so they could pull their starters very soon once the game gets out of hand. Last week against Ball State, A&M jumped out to a big lead and then let off the gas pedal, and Ball State found some running room in the second half, en route to 23 points. Nevada’s skill position players of note are their RB, Don Jackson, who is a solid back and has been their work horse, and their top two WRs, Hassan Henderson and Jerico Richardson. Overall, I think there are better spots, as Nevada has a team total under 20, and it’s tough to hone in on which WR to target. If I had to choose one, it’d be Henderson, as he’s leading them with 31.58% of Nevada’s targets this season (check out the advanced player stats on our CFB page, which have just been updated for this season. They’re a nice resource).

Texas A&M

A&M has a team total approaching 50 here, which would appear to make them a solid target, but for the most part, I have them in GPP-only category. When you factor in the tough pricing on DK, as well as A&M’s team total, Kyle Allen’s price tag on DK is tempting, as he was terrific in the first half against Ball State last week. The problem is that he never got back into the game after half- time, due to both the blowout, as well as the fact that A&M is committed to getting their freshman QB, Kyler Murray, some series’ each game. I don’t mind him as a tournament play, as this is a quality matchup, but I am wary of his playing time here.

A&M can really spread the ball around at WR, but Josh Reynolds and Christian Kirk have emerged as the two primary targets. If you can stomach the blowout factor, Reynolds’ price is down on DK, as he’s had a slow start to the season. He’s had a quiet start to the season, but I feel like A&M could look to get him more involved as they head into conference play, so I am liking his price tag on DK. Christian Kirk has lived up to his recruiting hype as he’s scored three TDs through the first two games, and is still affordable on FD (on FD he’s listed as “Kirk Christian” but it’s been that way since Week 1 and he’s been accruing points). A&M has put more emphasis on their running game this year, and Tra Carson has been the biggest beneficiary, especially because they are very thin in the backfield right now. Their back up RB, James White, missed last game with injury and his status for this week hasn’t been updated, which leaves A&M with only walk-ons, Kwame Etwi and Brice Dolezal, as their backups. A&M fed Carson in the opener 29 times, but then backed off last week with only 10 carries. With a thin backfield, and Arkansas up next, I’d expect A&M to once again try to limit his work load. I don’t mind taking a shot with him in GPPs, as he does have multi-TD upside, but just don’t expect the volume you saw in Game 1.

Illinois Fighting Illini at North Carolina Tar Heels – O/U 63.5

Illinois

Through two games, UNC has shown some solid improvement defensively, but I’m not sold that the improvement isn’t due to their schedule. They’ve faced North Carolina A&T, and a South Carolina team that looks terrible offensively. They may not be the train wreck they were last year, but they’re still a team I’ll target and there a few Illinois players with some solid price points.

Josh Ferguson doesn’t get enough carries and usage around the goal line for me to target him very much on a site like FD, but his game suits the PPR format on DK, so I think he’s a solid option there. Illinois is expected to be playing from behind and he has a great receiver out of the backfield, so this sets up as a game where he can rack up some PPR. I find myself liking the Illinois passing game this weekend with their QB, Wes Lunt, and their top WR, Geronimo Allison. They’re priced up on DK, (who isn’t?) so they’re not prime targets on DK for me, but on FD they make for a cheap QB/WR handcuff in tournaments, and let you load up at RB.

North Carolina

I was initially pretty excited about this game from both sides of the ball, but I’m more hesitant when it comes to UNC now, as it appears Marquise Williams could possibly lose some series’ to Mitch Trubisky. Larry Fedora played this game last year for a few weeks, and Trubisky would come in around every third series. Due to Marquise’s struggles against the Gamecocks, it looks like the rotation could be back, as Trubisky came in on the third series last week, and Fedora played coy after the game. While the matchup against Illinois looks good, I don’t trust Fedora, so Marquise is in GPP-only territory for me. However, if Fedora doesn’t get cute, he certainly brings upside to the table in this type of matchup, and with UNC’s team total of 35 points.

North Carolina really spreads the ball around at WR so it’s really a dart throw, and my favorite play from this game is Elijah Hood on DK. It’s a really tough cap, so Hood’s price of $5,400 is solid and he has looked good in his first two games. The primary drawback here is usage, as he’s been averaging just around 15 carries per game. The good sign here, is that UNC seemed to learn from their mistakes in the opener, as Hood got the goal line carries last week and converted them for two TDs.

UNLV Rebels at Michigan Wolverines – O/U 49

UNLV

UNLV’s starting QB, Blake Decker, was injured last week against UCLA and is listed as questionable for this one. They’re not a great offense with him in the lineup, but they were awful with him out of the lineup. Michigan has a solid defense, so this is a complete fade if Decker sits, and even if he plays, there isn’t much to like as they have a team total of seven. The only potential play would be Devonte Boyd on FD at just $5,000, if, and only if, Decker plays. Boyd is a talented kid, and at just $5,000, he becomes interesting in a tournament as he could rack up some garbage time stats. I definitely wouldn’t get cute here in cash games, though.

Michigan

UCLA piled up 273 rushing yards and over 5 YPC on UNLV last weekend, so this is a good spot for De’veon Smith to build on his breakout performance from last week. He had 23 carries for 126 yards and three TDs and has full control of the Michigan backfield. The Michigan run game struggled in their opener against a tough Utah defense, but Jim Harbaugh is going to put an emphasis on the running game, and the improvement was evident last weekend. UNLV has been very porous against both the run and pass, and I’m expecting another solid outing from Smith, who is my prime target in this game.

I’ll pass on their QB, Jake Rudock, as he leaves a lot to be desired, and the only two pass-catchers on the radar are Amara Darboh and Jake Butt. Butt will likely be the only exposure I have to the Michigan passing game, as he’s a solid play on sites that require a TE.

Air Force Falcons at Michigan State Spartans – O/U 55

Air Force

Air Force is an option offense, and although Michigan State hasn’t faced an option offense in a while, I don’t want to attack this MSU defense on the ground. They are consistently one of the top rush defenses in the nation, and held a great back in Royce Freeman to 3.8 YPC, so this is a complete avoid for me.

Michigan State

Michigan State is coming off one of their biggest victories as they toppled Oregon last weekend, so avoiding a letdown will be the biggest issue here. They’re 26-point favorites and should roll here, even if they do have a slow start. There are some high-volume passing attacks in this slate, so a guy like Connor Cook doesn’t sit too high on my list. Aaron Burbridge has been very good as he’s stepped into the number-one receiving role, with consecutive 100-yard receiving days to the start year, and is still fairly priced around the industry. The guy I’ll probably have the most exposure to, will be their TE, Josiah Price, on FD. He’s scored in each of the first two weeks, and will be one of the top TEs on a week-to-week basis all season long.

Air Force struggled against the running game of San Jose State last weekend as they allowed over 7 YPC, so the Michigan State run game should be in a for solid afternoon here. Madre London is the starter, but he will share carries with LJ Scott, so he doesn’t see that 23-25 carry volume that I love. Neither are particularly cheap on FD or DK, and they do limit each other’s upside, so there are other plays I prefer.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma Sooners – O/U 71.5

Tulsa

The first thing that jumps off the page to me, is that both these teams rank in the top 25 in pace so far this season, and that is evident in the Vegas total above 70. Tulsa games have quickly emerged as fantasy gold this year as they’ve adapted well to their new uptempo offensive style, and are still weak defensively. They’re big underdogs here, so on most sites I’ll be backing off of them as they’re averaging 43 PPG so far this season, but have a team total around 21. Zach Langer and D’Angelo Brewer were both work horses in last week’s game, but OU held a bruising Tennessee running game to under 3 YPC last weekend, and game flow should be working against the Tulsa running game.

After last weekend’s huge come from behind win, we could see a letdown from the Sooners, and Vegas does have Tulsa pegged for around three TDs. I wouldn’t pay full price on Keevan Lucas this week, but FD is giving us a great discount on him, so I think he’s in play in all formats there. I don’t mind Dane Evans as a GPP play, as he’s been productive in Tulsa’s new offensive system, but he can struggle with interceptions, and this is a big jump in competition, so I’m definitely not going crazy here. Keyarris Garrett is a great number two WR, but his price is on the rise, and is too high for me to pay in this matchup.

Oklahoma

The OU offense is in one of the better spots on the day as they have a team total over 50, and I trust the Tulsa offense (more than say, the Nevada offense) to at least put up three TDs or so, and keep the OU starters in for three to 3.5 quarters. If that’s how it plays out, we should see big days from a few OU players.

Baker Mayfield has really emerged in OU’s new Air Raid offense, and has accounted for eight total TDs in their first two games. Tulsa coughed up a big game to Jaquez Johnson in the opener, and will likely struggle all year defensively, so this is another great spot for him. His top target is Sterling Shepard, who is pricey on DK, but affordable on FD. Shepard had a huge day in this matchup last year with eight receptions for 177 yards and a TD, and could be in line for another big day. If you need some savings, then Dede Westbrook and Durron Neal are Mayfield’s second and third options, but they are a big dice roll.

The one player who has been hurt by the move to the Air Raid offense has been Samaje Perine. His carries and productivity are way down from last year’s breakout year, but he did rack up 23 carries last week. I love him as a tournament play around the industry, and think he’s cash game playable on FD, as I feel like OU makes a concerted effort to get him into the end zone this weekend and get him feeling good again. Tulsa was gashed on the ground last year, and gave up 300 rushing yards in their opener, so this is a great spot to get him rolling. You could also take a look at his backup, Joe Mixon, but I’d only do so on DK, which has a tight salary cap and is full PPR, as OU looks to get Mixon involved in the passing game.

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