CFB Grind Down - Week 3 Early Slate - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-19 14:37:09

Cincinnati Bearcats at Miami (OH) RedHawks – O/U 60

Cincinnati

This one is a FD-only game, but Cincinnati does have a team total approaching 40 so they’re worth a look. Their skill position players are very tough to nail down as they have three solid RBs, and they get them all involved. The same is true at WR, as Gunner Kiel will really spread the ball around. I’ll likely avoid the guessing game here, and the only guy on my radar would be Kiel, as he’s the safest exposure to their offense. The Redhawks were demolished by Wisconsin last weekend and Kiel should be able to do what he wants here. This was actually a very competitive game last year as Cincinnati prevailed 31-24, with Kiel throwing for four TDs. His price tag is very fair on FD, so I think he’s playable in all formats.

Miami Ohio

I’ll be avoiding the Redhawks as there’s just not a lot to target for fantasy purposes. They graduated their top playmakers from last year, and so far this season they’ve been balanced offensively, and don’t lean on any one player. Rokeem Williams could have some potential but the Redhawks are apparently having some big time issues at QB, so this is a stay away.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Miami (FL) Hurricanes – O/U 58

Nebraska

Nebraska has been a little easier to nail down than Miami, as the three names to know are their QB, Tommy Armstrong, their RB, Terrell Newby, and their top WR, Jordan Westerkamp. Miami lost one of their starting LBs for the season and really struggled with FAU’s running game last week as they allowed 238 rushing yards and 6.8 YPC. I think Nebraska could have success on the ground here, and Newby busted out with a big game last weekend. He struggled against a tough BYU front seven in the opener, but had 236 yards of total offense and three TDs last weekend. The one downside is that his price really exploded, so he won’t come cheap.

I think Tommy Armstrong is sitting at a nice price point on DK at $7,100, and he’s a guy I’ll have some exposure to due to his mid-range tag. With Nebraska becoming more balanced offensively, he’s seen a boost in usage in the passing game, and he still really hasn’t been unleashed in the running game. He does have some wheels, as he ran for 700 yards and six TDs last year, and as mentioned, Miami struggled to contain the run last weekend. Jordan Westerkamp has emerged as his top target out wide, and has hit pay dirt in both games this season, and makes for a solid target at $5,300 on DK.

Miami

The Miami RBs, Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton, have been productive, but limit each other’s upside somewhat. Yearby had a big game against FAU with 146 yard and a TD, as well as 97 receiving yards and TD, but Walton also snuck in for three rushing TDs himself. They each have 24 carries on the season, with Yearby being more productive in YPC, and Walton holding the rush TD edge. Yearby got more carries in their game against FAU which was the tighter game, and I’d expect him to continue to see the larger share of the split. I definitely wouldn’t pay $8,500 for him on DK, but he has a rock-solid price point on FD and is definitely a solid option there, as Vegas expects Miami to score around 30 points.

Miami has leaned slightly to the run this year, and Brad Kaaya hasn’t really stood out to me, so he’s not a guy that’s on my radar. He is expected to get two of his better WRs back in Stacy Coley and Braxton Berrios, but I’ll pass on the Miami passing game until a top target emerges.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – O/U 55

Georgia Tech

It’s always tough for me to nail down a triple-option team, as, in a sense, you’re at the mercy of what the defense wants to take away. Notre Dame hasn’t faced Georgia Tech recently, but another option team in Navy has given them fits over the last two years, as Navy has scored 39 and 34 points. In those matchups, they held former Navy QB, Keenan Reynolds, for 53 yards on 22 carries, and 47 yards on 18 carries, but Navy’s RBs got loose. Based on the way they defended Navy, I’d look to a guy like Patrick Skov over Justin Thomas, but maybe Notre Dame comes out with a different approach this year. Overall, Tech has really spread the ball around so they’re not a team I love to target, but Skov provides cheap TD upside.

Notre Dame

Deshone Kizer will step as the starting QB as Malik Zaire was unfortunately lost for the season. He came off the bench and threw the game winning TD pass with just seconds remaining, so the sites had time to adjust his price tag so that he’s not minimum price. He does have an elite WR in William Fuller to throw to, and he’ll be at home, but Georgia Tech isn’t the best landing spot. Given the fact that he’s not overly cheap, I think there are more proven options on the slate, so I’ll pass this weekend and see how he looks.

Fuller isn’t necessarily at the top of my list, but he’s big time, so I wouldn’t have any qualms with looking his direction, but it’s not somewhere I’m currently looking. The guy I like the best from this game is C.J. Prosise. The Irish also lost their starting RB in Week 1, so Prosise has stepped into the starting role and has looked very good in his first two games. With the Irish down to their backup QB, you could see them lean a little more on him in this one. The Georgia Tech run defense has been very stiff this season, but they haven’t been tested at all (they’ve faced Alcorn State and Tulane), and did allow 5.0 YPC last season, so they could be overrated in that department.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Purdue Boilermakers – O/U 48.5

Virginia Tech

This is one of the least exciting games on the slate, as it carries a total under 50. Virginia Tech lost their QB in their season opening loss to Ohio State, so Brenden Motley will be the guy at QB. He does have some wheels, so he brings some dual-threat ability to the table, and he’s dirt cheap on DK. I wouldn’t touch him on FD, but on DK he’s in the punt QB range for tournaments along with Nick Arbuckle and Jeremy Johnson.

At RB, they’ve really split the carries so it’s a position I’m avoiding. In their passing game, the guys to know are their two WRs, Cam Phillips and Isaiah Ford, as well as their TE, Bucky Hodges. Breaking in a new QB does worry me, but Motley has shown some nice rapport with Ford as all three of his TD passes have gone Ford’s way as he’s only $4,700 on DK.

Purdue

Austin Appleby has been productive through his first two games, as has D. J. Knox, but I don’t like targeting Virginia Tech defenses as they are usually a very solid group. That looks to be the case again this year as they returned eight starters, and did hold Ohio State to 14 first half points, so I’ll pass on the entire Purdue offense. If you’re looking to roster a Purdue WR, DeAngelo Yancey is their top option.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana Hoosiers – O/U 71.5

Western Kentucky

As will be the case with most Western Kentucky games this year (outside of Vanderbilt who hates fun and offense), this one is going to feature some fireworks. The Hilltoppers will unfortunately be missing their top RB, Leon Allen, who was lost for the season last week. Anthony Wales is also not ready to return, so D’Andre Ferby will get the bulk of the carries in this one. He steps into a nice spot here as WKU should move the ball with ease against a porous IU defense. He should have a solid game here, and I think he’s a fine play, but I definitely wouldn’t expect Leon Allen type production, and I’d be more inclined to play on DK rather than FD. I also think there is definitive merit to playing the fade here in some tournament lineups, as this is his first start and WKU could decide to lean even heavier on the pass.

After struggling in the opener, Brandon Doughty was back to his usual self as he threw for over 400 passing yards. The passing TDs haven’t been there yet this season, but they should be coming, and I’m expecting him to finally top the 40 pass attempts mark this weekend. I have him behind Matt Johnson on DK, but he’s one of the top QB options on this slate if you can swing his price tag. Nailing down his top WR is trickier. Jared Dangerfield was the top returning receiver and should eventually be the guy, but he’s working his way back from injury. In CFB, it’s tough to know when a guy is 100%, so there is some uncertainty here. This is a situation you’ll have to monitor up to kickoff, but the WKU beat writer seems to think he’ll be fine. If he is good to go, then he makes for a great upside play on DK at just $5,800. If he is still limited, then Taywan Taylor and Antwane Grant will continue to see a boost, with my preference lying with Taylor.

The guy who has really stepped up in Dangerfield’s absence has been their TE, Tyler Higbee. Through two games, he’s averaging almost 100 YPG, which is very rare for a TE in CFB. He’s clearly the top option at TE on the FanDuel slate, and he’s been good enough that he’s a solid option on DK where no TE is even required.

Indiana

If I’m spending up on one skill position player in this slate, it’s Jordan Howard for me. He’s tough to fit on DK, but I’ll try to squeeze him into a tournament lineup or two, and I’ll have a boatload of him on FD. Western Kentucky has a great offense, but unless you’re Vanderbilt, they’re a defensive sieve. Through their first two games, they are allowing 5.5 YPC, while Howard has rushed for 150 YPG and had 27 carries last weekend. He tore this WKU defense apart last year when he was at UAB, as he gashed them for 183 rushing yards and two TDs, and I’m expecting another similar dominating performance in this one.

Given the poor WKU defense, Indiana’s QB, Nate Sudfeld, is in play for me, but Indiana has been more run heavy this year, and his passing volume has been in the lower 30’s. At this price point, I think there are better targets who play a bigger role in their offense, but don’t mind him as a tournament play. I’m more likely to get exposure to the Indiana passing game through their wide receivers, Simmie Cobbs and Ricky Jones. The primary issue is figuring out which one to roster, and I’ll get exposure to both in GPPs as I’m not quite sold that Jones has solidified himself as the true number-one option. I would definitely lean to Jones in cash games, and think he makes for the safer play, but Cobb is coming at a discount, which is key on a site like DK. Cobb was thought to be the number-one option coming into the season, but has been outproduced by Jones, primarily due to a big Game 1 from Jones. Through two games, Jones has 15 targets compared to Cobbs 11, so we are still dealing with a small sample size, and I don’t mind saving here and pivoting to Cobbs in tournaments.

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