CFB Grind Down - Week 3 Early Slate - Page 4
Memphis Tigers at Bowling Green Falcons – O/U 80
| Memphis Tigers | Bowling Green Falcons | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | -3 | 80.00 | 95.00 | 38 | 3 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 286.00 | 299.00 | Offense | 462.00 | 162.50 |
| Opp Def | 195.00 | 277.50 | Opp Def | 136.00 | 106.00 |
| Opp Def Rank | 51st | 118th | Opp Def Rank | 28th | 77th |
Memphis
This one is a DK-only game, and it carries the highest total of the day at 79, so it will attract a ton of attention. The problem with Memphis, is that outside of their QB, Paxton Lynch, it’s very tough to nail down where the production will come from. They have four solid RBs in Sam Craft, Doroland Dorceus, Jarvis Cooper, and Jamarius Henderson that they will hand the ball off to, and they even got their WRs in the mix last week with some sweeps. It’d be a strictly GPP-only play as it’s a pure dart throw, and your guess is as good as mine as to where their running production will come from. Gun to my head, I’d lean Cooper or Craft.
The safest play in this offense is Lynch. It’s come against bad competition but he’s shown improvement in the passing department, and Memphis hasn’t really utilized his legs yet, as he’s a weapon rushing the ball in the red zone due to his size (13 rush TDs last year). This Bowling Green defense is very porous and they’re playing at the fastest pace in the nation on offense, so there will be a ton of plays in this one, so Lynch certainly has big upside here. At WR, it looks like Mose Frazier is Lynch’s top option, and they even worked in a few carries for him as well last week.
Bowling Green
The safest way to get exposure to the Bowling Green offense is through Matt Johnson, as they can spread the ball around at times. He’s averaging over 450 passing yards per game, has tons of weapons at his disposal, and Bowling Green has run the most plays- per-game in the nation through two games. He’s my favorite option on DK, as he’s coming at a slight discount compared to the other top QBs.
At RB, Travis Greene and Fred Coppet have been in a timeshare, so they’re tough to target and this is really about the WRs for me. I think Roger Lewis will be on one of the keys this weekend, as he’s coming off of a huge 15-catch 200-yard performance, and with the high total, he’s going to have plenty of traffic on him. He’s a really talented kid, and former 4-star recruit that was originally committed to Ohio State before running into legal problems. He’s a guy I’m definitely going to get some exposure to, as his upside is too great to fade, but I do have questions about his consistency. Through two games he’s been very volatile, and that was also the case last year as he’d put up a big game, and then be quiet for a few games.
This Bowling Green offense isn’t your typical smaller school offense that has to force-feed Lewis the ball, as they have a ton of talent at wide receiver. Ronnie Moore and Ryan Burbrink have been productive, and then they have Gehrig Dieter, a transfer from SMU, as well as Robbie Rhodes, a former 5-star recruit and transfer from Baylor. Due to their price points on DK, the two that I’m taking a look at are Dieter and Rhodes as they are sub $4,000. Dieter is the safer choice of the two, and I think he’ll be fairly popular as he already has a 100 yard game under his belt and has scored in each game. Rhodes is a boom-or-bust option that I’d only look to as a cheap pivot in a tournament. He sat out last year due to his transfer and could easily leave you with a goose egg. However, he had offers from all over the country out of high school, and Bowling Green finally started to work him in a little bit last week, as he had 2 receptions for over 100 yards and a TD. He’s a very talented kid, so if he can get his head right and Bowling Green starts to incorporate him in the offense, then he’s a guy who can break off a big play.