CFB Grind Down - Week 3 Late Slate Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-18 22:03:51

Pittsburgh Panthers at Iowa Hawkeyes – O/U 47

Pittsburgh

Typically the late slate features some high scoring Pac 12 shootouts but that’s not really the case this week, and this game certainly doesn’t fall into that category. It carries a total of only 47, and there’s not a lot to like here. Nate Peterman could be taking over for Chad Voytik at QB this weekend, but it sounds like we may not know the final answer until kick off. There’s not much upside here anyway so it’s a situation to avoid. Pitt unfortunately lost their All American RB, James Conner for the year, so Qadree Ollison will be manning the backfield. He’s not the talent that Conner is but volume should be there on a week to week basis. This is a very tough matchup though as Iowa typically fields a strong run defense and that has been the case this season as well.

They still do have a game breaking talent in Tyler Boyd on the outside, and when they do pass he is their first, second and third option. He had 10 receptions for 153 yards in this matchup last year and should be low owned in tournaments due to the low total. He’s not a cash game play for me though.

Iowa

I’m equally unenthused about the Iowa offense here. C. J. Beathard has been very productive so far this season as he has four passing TDs and two rushing TDs, but he’s doing so on low pass volume, which does worry me. He does seem to be getting in the mix for 8 to 10 carries as well. He’s not a play on FD for me as I worry whether his TD ratio is sustainable, but on DK with that tight cap, he’s in play at $6,500. Matt Vandeberg has been by far his favorite target and has 15 receptions on 17 targets this year, including two TDs. This isn’t a game I want a ton of exposure to, but he is still sub $6,000 on both sites.

Iowa typically is a run heavy offense and the question here will be the availability of Leshun Daniels, who is listed as questionable. If Daniels sits, then Jordan Canzeri will draw the start and he’s been productive to start the season. This will be a much tougher test though as Pitt has a much better run defense than Illinois State or Iowa State. I probably won’t have him, but I do understand the play if Daniels sits.

Southern Methodist Mustangs at TCU Horned Frogs – O/U 66.5

SMU

Matt Davis has looked terrific in Chad Morris’s new offense at SMU, and he’s getting a ton of work in the ground game as he’s averaging over 20 carries per game and 120 rushing yards. However, that has elevated his price point, and this is a tough spot against TCU with SMU holding only a 14 point team total. When SMU gets into conference play, he’s a guy I’ll look to roster often, but given his price point and matchup this week, I’ll be staying away from him as well as the rest of the SMU offense.

TCU

The big question here is whether SMU can keep this one competitive enough to keep Trevone Boykin and the TCU starters in the game for 3 quarters. They were able to do that against Baylor, and the Baylor offense went off as a result. Seth Russell had 6 TDs and 420 yards of total offense, while Corey Coleman and KD Cannon each topped 100 yards.

TCU has some similar talent here so Trevone Boykin, Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee are interesting if you can stomach the blowout risk. I’m typically a little more cautious in blowout games that occur the week before a team starts it’s conference schedule, as coaches tend to play it a little more cautious. That is the situation TCU finds itself as they head to Lubbock next weekend. I’ll sprinkle them into some tournament lineups, and given how Baylor got deep against SMU in the opener, a speedster like Listenbee becomes very intriguing and he’s the cheapest of the bunch. I’ll avoid their starting RB, Aaron Green here as I worry about his workload, but maybe his backup, Kyle Hicks, grabs you a cheap TD on DK.

Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans – O/U 50

Stanford

As is typically the case with Stanford games, they’re holding down the total here as this game has a total of just 50, which is very low for a USC game. Overall this offense just doesn’t excite me especially in a tough matchup with USC on the road. I’ll give Christian McCaffrey a look in some spots down the road, but this isn’t the spot for me and I’ll be fading the Cardinal.

USC

USC is going to be an offense that puts up a lot of points this year, but this isn’t a great spot for them. They are all expensive and this game will likely feature their lowest total of the year, so it could be tough to pay off their high price points. Stanford isn’t quite the defense they were last year, but this is still a solid group. Stanford has held the Trojans to just 20 and 13 points the last two years, as these games have been very low scoring. I’d be most intrigued by JuJu Smith as he’s a big-time talent, and he’ll finally see 4 quarters of action here. With most probably staying away due to the matchup, he becomes an interesting GPP option.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions – O/U 46

Rutgers

Things couldn’t get much worse for Rutgers right now, they’ve had multiple suspensions just prior to the season and then last weekend after their loss, their star WR, Leonte Carroo apparently had a domestic disturbance and has been indefinitely suspended. To top it off, their head coach was basically involved in academic fraud and has been suspended for three games. They have no depth in the secondary, no star WR, no head coach, THEIR PETS HEADS ARE FALLING OFF!

Penn State is a mess offensively but they feature a solid defense and with all of their issues, I’ll be fading this Rutgers offense. They do have a few talented backs but they’re RBBC so this is a complete avoid for me. With Carroo suspended, Janarion Grant would likely be the biggest beneficiary.

Penn State

As mentioned Rutgers is in complete disarray and is very thin in their secondary due to suspensions. I had written off Christian Hackenberg completely, but Rutgers is doing their best to try to draw me back in here. I’m not sure I’m biting but I may hae a GPP team with him on DK due to tight pricing, although I’m sure I’ll regret it. He did throw for 300 yards against Rutgers last year (but no TDs) and he falls into that cheap QB option that you might have to roll on DK. Chris Godwin has been the most productive Penn State wideout so far this season and Hackenberg’s favorite option so he could be emerging as the top option in their passing “attack”, which isn’t saying much. Still he’s just $3,900 on DK and $4,800 on FD so he’s a guy I’ll have some exposure to as a cheap tournament play against a bad secondary.

Due to DK’s strict pricing, I was initially a little intrigued with Akeel Lynch at $4,700, but he hasn’t been great this year and was out-performed by his backup Saquon Barkley last weekend.

Wyoming Cowboys at Washington State Cougars – O/U 64.5

Wyoming

This game features a solid total of 65, and Wyoming is expected to at least keep it within shouting distance as they are 24 point under dogs. The guy with the most intrigue here is Brian Hill who is now sitting atop their depth chart at RB as he ran for 242 yards and 2 TDs last weekend. Do keep in mind that came against Eastern Michigan, who is probably the worst run defense in the entire nation. Still he was very productive last season when he had the opportunity and he is cheap on both sites. He’s a solid play and I think he’ll be a fairly popular value pick. My main concern with him is whether Wyoming will stick with their running game if/when Washington State runs out to a big lead on them.

Their starting QB, Cameron Coffman, will return from injury and while he’s not available on FD, he is a GPP option on DK due to the fact that he’s sitting at the bare minimum price of $4,000. He’s a transfer from Indiana and he put up 18 points in their opener. I wouldn’t peg him for that much production here, and he is risky, but the Washington State defense isn’t great, and he could get your 12 to 15 points on DK. With Coffman playing in the opener, Tanner Gentry had a huge day with 176 receiving yards and a TD so he looks like Coffman’s favorite target, and is minimum price on FD, and $4,700 on DK.

Washington State

There’s not a lot to be said about Washington State other than get exposure to their passing game. The Washington State passing attack got back on track last weekend as Luke Falk threw for almost 500 yards and four TDs, and both River Cracraft and Gabe Marks topped the century mark in receiving yards. Marks is leading the team with 27 targets and is stepping up nicely into the shoes of departed WR, Vince Mayle. His price is on the rise a little bit, but it’s easy to squeeze him in there on FD. I prefer Cracraft on a site like DK as he’s better suited to the PPR format. The third WR to know here is Dom Williams, and he’s the cheapest of the group. I’d expect their passing game to keep on rolling and Falk makes for safest high end option at QB as he’s probably a lock for 400 passing yards here

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