CFB Grind Down - Week 3 Late Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-21 13:10:38

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs – O/U 52.5

South Carolina

It’s been a rocky start to the season for the Gamecocks as they were able to scoot by UNC in the opener, but then lost to Kentucky at home last weekend. They had some issues offensively with their young QB, Connor Mitch, and he was unfortunately lost for the season early in the game against Kentucky. That leaves them with a former walk on in Perry Orth, and he’s a guy that I have little faith in. Orth isn’t on my radar and I also have my questions about how much you can trust him to consistently get the ball to Pharoh Cooper, who is one of the most electric wide receivers in the country. Cooper is expensive on both sites so he’s a GPP only play for me due to the tough matchup and his issues at QB. On the plus side, SC will look to force him feed him the ball and will probably start getting him involved in quicker passing plays to take the pressure off their QB, and he will line up as wildcat QB occasionally. He was able to produce 9 receptions for 100 yards last week against Kentucky, but this is a big step up against a top 10 Georgia team.

Brandon Wilds looks to be securing his grip as the lead back ahead of David Williams, but he’s too expensive for my tastes as I don’t trust this SC offense and they have a team total of just around 17. Overall there are a lot offenses I’d rather target so I’ll mostly pass.

Georgia

I love the way this games sets up for a guy like Nick Chubb and think we could see his first monster game of the year. He was limited in a blow out in the season opener, and last week he had a huge yardage output but the TDs just didn’t fall his way. As you can tell I don’t have much faith in the Gamecock offense and I think that is going to lead the pounding Georgia offense dominating time of possession and really wearing on the South Carolina defense. Georgia doesn’t play at a fast pace or throw it around a ton so South Carolina should keep it close enough for Chubb to see 4 quarters of action against what I expect to be a tired defense in the 4th. South Carolina had issues stopping the run last year and that has continued into this season as they’ve allowed 5.9 YPC through their firs two games. Now they must try to deal with Nick Chubb and his 8.8 YPC, and I don’t envision that going well. The DK cap is tight in the night slate as well so he’s tough to fit there, but he’s a guy I want exposure to everywhere else.

Outside of Chubb, there’s not a whole lot else I like on Georgia. They’re a very run heavy team so the volume just isn’t there for their QB, Greyson Lambert, or their passing game in general. I may have a little exposure to their top WR, Malcolm Mitchell. The volume concerns me, but he’s a talented kid and South Carolina is likely to be down their top cornerback in this one.

Colorado Buffaloes at Colorado State Rams – O/U 57

Colorado

Colorado is a tough team to nail down as they’ve been more run heavy than I had envisioned coming into this season, and Sefo Liufau hasn’t topped 175 passing yards in a game yet. On a site like Fanduel, there are much better options in his price range, but on DK he’s sitting at $6,300 and you’re probably going to have to begrudgingly take a shot with a sub $6,500 QB. I don’t feel great about it, but he’s had big days in the past, is getting solid usage in the running game and has a top WR in Nelson Spruce to throw to. Speaking of Spruce, Sefo’s struggles have affected him as he’s had a slow start to the year as well. The good news is that when Colorado does throw, the targets have still been there as he has 21 through two games. He’s still expensive on FD, and I think I’d prefer to spend at RB rather than spend $8,500 on him there, but he is down to $7,200 on DK. He also had a big game in this one last with seven receptions for 102 yards and two TDs.

The surprise for the Buffaloes has been Michael Adkins II as he’s scored three TDs, averaged over 20 carries per game, and been productive from a yardage stand point. There’s no denying he’s been productive but I have a mental roadblock when it comes to the CU running game as they’ve just been so bad and unpredictable in recent years. I don’t mind the play, but I’m not sure I’m ready to buy in quite yet.

Colorado State

The big news to monitor in this one will be the status of CSU’s star WR, Rashard Higgins. He missed last week’s game with an injury, but it sounds like he’s expected to play in this one. He’s one of the best in the game when he’s fully healthy, but the question is how close is he to 100%. I tend to play it safe in CFB, especially when it comes to high priced guys, so he’s not a guy I’m considering for cash games. However, his injury status could leave him lower owned than he should be in tournaments. Nick Stevens is expected to remain the starter at QB, but he was pulled in his last start and the back up could see a few series so it’s a stay away for me. There is still some uncertainty for me in the Rams backfield as they did get Treyous Jarrells back last week, but Dalyn Dawkins remained their top option. I’m going to give this situation another week or two to see if someone really emerges in their backfield. Really this one just boils down to the health of Higgins. If he does happen to sit, then their number two WR, Joe Hansley, would get a bump and he’s fairly cheap around the industry.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Arkansas Razorbacks – O/U 70.5

Texas Tech

This one features the highest total on the slate and it’s due to the presence of Texas Tech. They are going to throw the ball over the yard, and have been putting up silly yardage totals against lesser competition. They also have continued to be a disaster on defense so the Razorbacks are definitely on my radar.

The big question to answer is whether Patrick Mahomes can keep up his electric start as he has ten total TDs through two games and is averaging almost 400 passing yards per game. Those stats came against Sam Houston State and UTEP, and this one will come on the road in a night game against stiffer competition. I’m not sure that he’s worth stretching your cap on DK, but I’ll have exposure to him on FD, as I was expecting him to be over $9,000. It’s come against bad competition but his usage has been terrific in Tech’s pass heavy offense and he’s also being utilized in the run game inside the 10. His favorite targets at WR are Jakeem Grant and Devin Lauderdale, and Ian Sadler will sometimes sneak in there. Lauderdale is affordable on both FD and DK, and Grant is cheaper than I thought he’d be on FD as he’s just $6,400. It’s a jump in competition but there is volume here as Tech will be one of the more pass heavy teams in the nation.

Their starting RB is Deandre Washington and he can be extremely volatile due to the pass heavy nature of the offense he plays in. He’ll explode every now and again and has big play ability so I’d be most likely to roll the dice on him on DK where he is $4,900.

Arkansas

I think this Arkansas running game is in a similar position to the spot that the Washington State passing game found themselves last week. They’re coming off a disappointing performance so people are bailing, but the spot is prime for a bounce back. Bret Bielema’s running game is a proven commodity similar to Mike Leach’s passing attack, and my guess is that Arkansas’ focus this week was getting their run game on track. They’re coming off on embarrassing loss to Toledo that saw their QB, Brandon Allen, have to take to the air 53 times. They were 0-3 last year when he had to throw it 40 times or more so they’re a team that is dead in the water when they can’t get the ground game going. Bielema knows this and they’ve also lost their top WR, Keon Hatcher, for a few weeks.

I’m expecting a heavy dose of Alex Collins in this one and love him this weekend as a bounce back play. Tech changed defensive coordinators in the offseason, but the results haven’t changed much as I think they have a personnel problem. So far this season, Tech has allowed 45 points to Sam Houston State, including including 317 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs, and followed that up by allowing 160 total yards and two TDs to UTEP RB, Aaron Jones. That’s a problem as this Arkansas offensive line is massive and mauled Tech last year. Arkansas ran for 438 rushing yards and 7 TDs, with Alex Collins accounting for 212 yards and 4 TDs so I’m expecting the Arkansas run game to get back on track here in a big way.

I’m not looking at Brandon Allen but I don’t mind two of his pass catching options in Hunter Henry in all formats, and maybe Jared Cornelius in tournaments. With Keon Hatcher out, there will be a void to fill in the Arkansas passing game and I’m still expecting them to throw it 25 to 30 times. Henry is the hands down top TE play in the late slate on FD and I don’t mind him on DK as you could see him emerge as Arkansas’ top receiving option. Cornelius and Drew Morgan will start at WR, and I’ll give the edge to Cornelius if I’m going that route. Arkansas will take some play action shots deep to keep the defense honest so he has some big play potential and is just $4,500 on both FD and DK.

California Bears at Texas Longhorns – O/U 58

California

With Texas struggling, Cal actually enters this game as 6.5 point favorites. This Texas defense hasn’t looked as good as did last year, and the Bears do have a 33 point team total so they should be on your radar. The options on the Cal offense really boils down to just their QB, Jared Goff, and their RB, Daniel Lasco, as their WRs are just to tough to predict. If I was throwing a dart it’d probably be Kenny Lawler but that’s a GPP only play. Due to weak competition, Goff hasn’t really had to cut loose this year yet, but he threw for almost 4,000 yards last year along with 35 passing TDs. He won’t come cheap, but I’m expecting an uptick in volume due to the tight spread and this Texas secondary has been vulnerable so far.

Lasco only got 5 carries in the opener as they destroyed Grambling State, but he had 19 carries last week, and he’ll be the lead dog for the Bears. He had 33 receptions last year so he’s a guy Cal will get involved in the passing game, and at $6,300 he’s certainly in play on a PPR site like DK. He’s also from Texas so this is probably a “friends and family game” for him for those narrative street guys out there.

UPDATE – I missed that Lasco is questionable for tomorrow so that is a situation to monitor. If he sits Vic Enwere sounds like he’ll grab the start.

Texas

As a whole this Texas offense is not going to be one that I’ll be getting much exposure to this season. They did score 42 points last week, but they were aided by a special teams TD and turnovers as they had under 300 yards of total offense. For some reason, Jonathan Gray has just not been involved offensively for the Horns and he’s a complete stay away right now. The one player that I am intrigued about here is Jerrod Heard. He was the surprise starter last weekend and performed well as he threw for 120 yards and two TDs, while rushing for 96 more yards. He only attempted 7 passes so volume in the passing game is a concern, but we’re really rostering him for his legs as he can really move. He’s cheap on both DK and FD and he’s a guy I’ll have exposure to, especially on DK. Cal hasn’t been tested this year, but they’ve featured one of the worst secondaries in the nation the past two season so if Heard can connect on a few deep balls, his legs should propel him to a solid fantasy outing.

Texas has 13 TOTAL receptions on the year so I wouldn’t go crazy trying to handcuff Heard with one of his WR, as its really about his running ability. John Burt is a freshman who has some big play ability on the outside and *Daje Johnson * has some big-time speed as well so they could get deep against this questionable Cal secondary, but those are very deep and risky GPP plays as they provide very little volume.

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats – O/U 52.5

Florida

I’m more curious to watch this game than I am to roster players from this one as there are a lot of moving parts here. Both Florida QBs, Treon Harris and Will Grier are expected to see action so it’s an easy stay away for me. Their top RB, Kelvin Taylor, was dropped to 3rd on the depth chart, but that sounds like it was primarily due to his throat slash gesture (f you haven’t seen the video, Florida head coach Jim McElwain REALLY hates that gesture because he lost his freakin mind). I’d still expect him to get the majority of the carries but he hasn’t topped 16 carries on the season.

They’ve involved a lot of different wide receivers as well and their leading receivers are currently their third string TE, DeAndre Goolsby, and their second string receiver, DeMarcus Robinson. McElwain is moving guys up and down the chart so it’s tough to put too much stock in their depth chart. Overall I’d just stay away here, but Goolsby would be the one guy I’d give a look in tournaments on FD.

Kentucky

The Florida defense disappointed last week against Eastern Carolina as they allowed 330 passing yards and three TDs. However, they’re a talented group, feature one of the nation’s best corners in Vernon Hargreaves III, and are a team I typically just avoid. Stanley Boom Williams is averaging over 10 YPC this season, but unfortunately he only has 24 carries on the season. I’ll avoid their QB, Patrick Towles, in a matchup like this as well. Their leading WR to date, Garrett Johnson, is only $3,800 on DK, but he’ll need to avoid the matchup with Hargreaves.

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