CFB Grind Down - Week 4 Early Slate Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-25 18:52:20

Indiana Hoosiers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons – O/U 56

Indiana

I had a ton of Jordan Howard last weekend, and while the rushing numbers were there (203), he was kept out of the end zone for a second straight week. He now has 362 rushing yards over his last two weeks, and is averaging 29 carries per game, but has zero rushing TDs. That is due to change as Howard is too good, and I think it’s mostly just short-term variance, as his QB, Nate Sudfeld is eating up a ton of TDs on much less volume, and he lost a TD to his backup RB last week. Wake Forest is allowing only 3.7 YPC, but they haven’t faced anyone, so I wouldn’t shy away from Howard here. He’s a guy I’m targeting more on FD as the cap is a bit looser there, and he makes for a solid tournament pivot off of Leonard Fournette, who will probably be very high owned.

Indiana’s passing game does have some upside, but Nate Sudfeld is too pricey for me, and if I’m paying his price then I want 40 or more passes/touches from my QB. Ricky Jones has continued to be his favorite option, and is an ok option, but I’d prefer to either spend up to the top end WR or go with some value.

Wake Forest

The big question in this one is whether Wake Forest QB John Wolford will be able to play in this one. It sounds like he’s going to miss this one, and that Kendall Hinton will draw the start. Hinton is a true freshman that is much more of a runner than a passer at this point in his career. In relief of Wolford last week, he ran for 101 yards and two TDs, but struggled in the passing game as he was picked twice. I wouldn’t pay $7,100 for him on FD, but if you need a cheap QB2 on DK or FA, he’s in play, as he should see success running against a porous Indiana defense. However, Indiana has been better against the run than the pass, as they are second to last in passing yards allowed per game at 383 YPG, so his strength will be up against their strength.

Given Indiana’s poor pass defense, a guy like KJ Brent at just $3,400 on DK is interesting, and their TE Cam Serigne is a solid red zone target. However, if Hinton draws the start, it is a big knock to them as I don’t trust him in the passing game, so they’d be GPP only for me.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Boston College Eagles – O/U 47

Northern Illinois

This is another game with a total under 50 that I’m not very excited about. Northern Illinois gave Ohio State all they could handle last weekend, and Boston College did the same to Florida State, as both teams’ defenses looked rock solid. Boston College has been a very good run defense each of the past few years, and they held their own against FSU last weekend, so they’re a team I typically avoid. The NIU RB Joel Bouagnon sees solid volume, but I’ll wait for a better spot to use him. The same is really true for the rest of this offense, as Boston College just grinds you and plays very slow. Kenny Golladay had a huge first two weeks before being shut down by Ohio State, so I don’t mind taking a shot with him, but he’s not at the top of my list.

Boston College

BC lost their starting QB, Darius Wade, to season ending injury, and it sounds like both Troy Flutie and Jeff Smith are competing for the starting job as BC has not named a starter yet. Smith is supposed to have some elite running ability, but given the uncertainty as to whether he’ll even start and this tough matchup, I’ll avoid the situation. I had high hopes for Jon Hilliman coming into the season, but he’s in a four way time share so I’ll just avoid the entire Boston College team here.

Maryland Terrapins at West Virginia Mountaineers – O/U 57

Maryland

Caleb Rowe had a productive fantasy day against South Florida, but he’s thrown five interceptions in his past two games, and overall, I’m not a fan of any of these Maryland QBs. Brandon Ross has solidified himself as the top option at RB and has two TDs on the season. However, game flow is expected to be working against him here as the Terrapins are 17-point underdogs, and when they got down to Bowling Green, he only logged eight carries.

The one player worth a look here would be Levern Jacobs at just $4,200 on DK. I have questions about his QB play, but he’s a talented kid and is coming off of a 100-yard receiving game. Unlike Ross, game flow should be working for him as Maryland should be playing catching up and passing in the third and fourth quarters.

West Virginia

West Virginia has a high team total of around 38 points, and for the most part, their skill position players are very cheap around the industry. My two favorite plays from this game are their young, big-play wide receivers Jovon Durante and Shelton Gibson. Both are very cheap on FD and DK and provide great salary relief. The problem is nailing down which one to target. Bowling Green lit up Maryland in the passing game and picked on the cornerback opposite of Will Likely, so whoever gets that matchup is the one to target. The problem is that we don’t have stats in CFB like we do in NFL that give us guidance on how often a WR lines up where. Both have been very productive to start the year and have a receiving TD in each game, and I’ll have exposure to both on Saturday. As far as their QB Skyler Howard goes, he’s a DK-only play for me as he’s only $6,800 there, but he’s expensive on both FD and FA so I wouldn’t touch him there.

WVU has been RBBC to start the year, but Wendell Smallwood has been much more productive than Rushel Shell to start the year, so he’s the guy to look to. He saw 19 touches last game, and has eight receptions on the season, so he’s a solid option on a PPR site like DK at just $4,900, and he’s cheap on FD as well at just $5,400.

Rice Owls at Baylor Bears – O/U 74

Rice

Rice is expected to get hammered here as Baylor is 35-point favorites, but Rice does have a team total around 21, so there should be a few TDs here to chase. Given the game flow, I’ll stay away from the Rice running game here. I think their QB, Driphus Jackson, is solid, but he’d only be worth a look as a long-shot, cheap QB2 on DK in a GPP.

The most interesting guy here is Dennis Parks, and he really opens up salary cap on FD as he’s minimum price. He missed the first week with injury, but has eight receptions in each of the past two games, and found the end zone twice last week. Rice should be throwing in the second half and he should see some garbage time against Baylor’s backups. Based on that he’s one of my favorite punt options on FD, and really lets up you load up on those high-scoring games.

Baylor

Baylor has a team total of 54 here, and the only real question is how much damage their starters can do before they hit the bench. They do open up Big 12 play next week against an improved Texas Tech team, so as long as the game is well in hand (which it should be), I’m not expecting to seem their starters in the fourth quarter at all.

Their QB, Seth Russell, has huge upside, and on most weeks he’d be a terrific target. However, I’ll side with both QBs in the TCU/Texas Tech game as that game has a total of 80, and is expected to be a four-quarter battle. Russell has already shown he has six-TD upside even in blowouts, so he’s certainly in play for GPPs, but prefer Mahomes and Boykin for cash games.

Corey Coleman is the most expensive WR on the board as he put up four TDs last weekend, and a secondary like Rice is just no match for him. He has at least 178 receiving yards in each game, and is basically a long TD waiting to happen. You’ll have to work to fit him in, but even in a blowout, he’s in the top group of WRs to consider. Outside of Coleman, it gets a little tougher, as both KD Cannon and Jay Lee have the ability to go off. I’d lean Lee’s way, but think both make for high upside tournament options, but wouldn’t go there in cash due to the blowout.

It sounds like backup RB, Devon Chafin, will miss this one so don’t roster him, but Baylor still has three RB they can and will use. Shock Linwood is their top option, but Johnny Jefferson and Terrence Williams are also expected to see carries as well. All three actually topped 100 rushing yards last weekend, and it’s just a tough situation to navigate this weekend.

Western Michigan Broncos at Ohio State Buckeyes – O/U 60

Western Michigan

Western Michigan has some talent offensively as they have two legit wide receivers in Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis. Braverman has at least 13 receptions in EACH of his three games this season, while Davis is the big-play guy. They also have a RB in Jarvion Franklin who had 1,500 rushing yards last season. The problem is that this Ohio State defense is legit, and these Western Michigan guys won’t come cheap. OSU locked up another solid MAC team in NIU last weekend, and with a team total of just 14 points, I don’t think this is the week to target these guys. Braverman is discounted on FD, so maybe you could take a shot there, but he’s better on a full-PPR site like DK.

Ohio State

Luckily I haven’t been on the Ohio State-train too much this year as there was just too much uncertainty for me. They’ve really struggled offensively since their opener, but the price point on Cardale Jones has finally dropped. Urban Meyer came out and named him the starter, and my gut tells me he gives Cardale a longer leash this week, as he needs to get this offense on track and the rotation at QB hasn’t worked yet. This Ohio State offense is too talented to keep on struggling like this, so they’ll get on track sooner rather than later. I’m not coming off of Mahomes or Boykin in cash games on FD, so he’s a GPP only play there, but I think he’s a high-upside QB2 option on DK.

If it’s not Cardale going off then it’ll be Ezekiel Elliot, as I’m thinking this Buckeye offense gets back on track this weekend. The carries are still there as he’s averaging 25 carries per game over his last two games. Western Michigan is coughing up 6.6 YPC this season, which is 122nd in the nation, so Ohio State should be able to do whatever they want on the ground.

It’s tough to nail down the OSU WRs as they don’t really force-feed any one. Braxton Miller and Michael Thomas are their top two options, but I wouldn’t trust either one in a cash game.

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