CFB Grind Down - Week 4 Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-09-28 19:43:24

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

NOTE: I’ve focused on pricing at DraftKings, FanDuel as well as the early games that FantasyAces included in their early slate this week. All three sites are running live events and have some great tournaments out there so be sure to jump in on all three sites. FanDuel will be referred to as “FD”, DraftKings as “DK”, and FantasyAces as “FA”.

Bowling Green Falcons at Purdue Boilermakers – O/U 75

Bowling Green

Bowling Green games are proving to be fantasy gold this year, as they have a high flying offense, a bad defense, and play at a great tempo (third-highest plays per game so far). The result is a lots of points, and a Vegas total of 75 like we have here. The Bowling Green offense has lit up everyone they have faced, including Tennessee, and Purdue was torched by an average Virginia Tech offense for 51 points last weekend. The Bowling Green passing game should continue to produce huge numbers, and their QB, Matt Johnson, has thrown for at least 400 passing yards in each of his first three games. I prefer the dual-threat QBs in Patrick Mahomes and Trevone Boykin as my top-two options, but Johnson is right there with Seth Russell as the number-three QB on my board, and you’re getting a nice discount on him at FD.

They’ve split carries at RB, so I’m not overly interested in either Travis Greene or Fred Coppett, and the prime target here is Roger Lewis in the passing game. He’s put together back-to-back 200-yard receiving games, and is seeing a ton of targets as he’s averaging over 12 per game. He won’t come cheap, but he’s one of the elite WR options on this slate. I started the week off very high on him, but have cooled on him a little bit. My current plan of attack is to get some exposure to him in GPPs because, as we’ve seen the last two weeks, he has enormous upside, but likely fading him in cash games. The reason I’ve cooled on him a little bit, is that reading through some articles previewing this game, the Purdue coach specifically mentioned limiting the Bowling Green long pass plays, not showing man coverage and then “rallying up on the underneath throws”. Based on those thoughts, we could see a lot of safety help on the outside as Purdue tries to force Bowling Green into longer, more sustained drives. With that in mind we could see a few more receptions go to the Bowling Green slot WRs in Ronnie Moore and Ryan Burbrink, so I think they are sneaky options in tournaments.

Purdue

Purdue is normally a team I’d ignore, but Bowling Green’s pace and poor defense puts some of them squarely on my radar. The problem is that there is a great deal of uncertainty here, so I’m mixing them in more in tournaments than in cash games. The first guy to talk about here is David Blough, who was just elevated to QB1. He’ll be making his first start, but he has a solid high school pedigree and was an Elite 11 QB out of high school. He’s too expensive on DK, but he’s just $5,300 on FD and minimum price on FA, he did get my attention, as he really lets you load up at WR and RB in a GPP. I’d expect Purdue to try to ease him in here by leaning on the running game, so I’m not expecting 40 pass attempts or anything like that. However, at this price point, all you need is 250 passing yards and two TDs, and given Bowling Green’s defense and high pace, as well as Purdue’s team total of 35, I think that’s doable. Given the high-upside QBs on the board, and the uncertainty with him making his first start, I think he’s too risky for cash games, but I’ll have some exposure to him in tournaments on FD and FA.

With Purdue breaking in a new QB, this looks like a solid spot for the Purdue RBs. The problem is that it’s tough to figure out whether to target D.J. Knox or Markell Jones here. Knox is listed as their number-one on the depth chart and I’ve seen nothing to change that, but his carries have gone down each game, while Jones, a true freshman, has been productive. Both are fairly cheap around the industry, but their volume certainly isn’t secure. With that in mind, I don’t mind taking a shot with one of them, but I’d do so in only in a tournament.

The last two Purdue players worth a mention are their WR Deangelo Yancey and Danny Anthrop. Anthrop was Purdue’s top guy, but tore his knee up last season, while Yancey is their big-play WR. Anthrop* is expected to play but is still limited in practice, so I’ll give the edge to Yancey here. Both are potential cheap handcuffs to Blough in a tournament, and while Purdue is planning on slowing tempo, if Bowling Green jumps out on them they’ll have no choice but to take to the air.

LSU Tigers at Syracuse Orange – O/U 46

LSU

The real question here, is how long Syracuse can keep this competitive, as they are down to their third-string QB who is a walk-on. The spread on this one is only 24 and LSU has a cake matchup next week against Eastern Michigan, so as long Syracuse doesn’t start throwing pick-sixes, I think three quarters of playing time is a fair projection. That is important to consider, because Leonard Fournette is looking like a legit Heisman contender as he’s run for three TDs in each of his first two games. He’s already steam-rolled Mississippi State and Auburn, and should run wild against an over-matched Syracuse defense, even if he plays on 2.5 to three quarters. It is worth noting that Syracuse comes into this game with a top-five rushing defense as they’re allowing just 1.9 YPC. However, I’m taking those stats with a grain of salt, as they’ve faced Rhode Island, Wake Forest, and Central Michigan, and this LSU run game is obviously a different beast. On FD he is still very affordable, so he’s an elite option. On DK and FA, he’s priced up and it’s little tougher to squeeze him in. If I’m spending up this week I prefer to spend for one of the high-end QBs playing in competitive, high scoring games, so he’s more of a GPP option for me on those sites.

The only other option in this one for me is LSU WR Travin Dural, who I like as a high-upside tournament play this weekend. He’s priced too high for my liking on FD, but on sites like DK and FA he’s cheap and I like him as a WR3 or Flex. He’s LSU’s big-play threat and averaged 20 YPC the past two seasons. With teams likely focusing more attention on Fournette, I think he busts a big play or hopefully two here. The risk comes in that if he doesn’t break a long TD, there isn’t much volume to fall back on due to LSU’s run-heavy offense, so you’ll likely be sitting on four receptions for 20 yards. Due to holding calls, he had a 79-yard TD run, as well as a 37-yard TD reception called back against Mississippi State, and if those TDs had stood, we wouldn’t be getting this cheap price point. Also playing in Dural’s favor is the fact that Syracuse is dead last in passing yards allowed so far this year, allowing over 400 YPG.

Syracuse

The Orange have a team total just over 10, and as mentioned, are down to their third-string QB who is a former walk on. This is a talented LSU defense and this is a complete avoid.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils – O/U 56

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech has a team total of around 33 points, so there should be a decent amount of points. The problem is that they are always a tough team to break down, as really no one is guaranteed solid volume outside of their B Back, Patrick Skov, who has been their one consistent back this season. He was on the receiving end of two TD passes last week, but he’s not a guy who is usually heavily involved in the passing game so that’s not something I’d count on going forward. He still has a solid price point around the industry, particularly on FD where is sub-$6,000, and that is where I’m most likely to get exposure to him. He is their go-to guy around the end zone and already has five rushing TDs on the season, so he’s a nice bet to grab you a cheap rushing TD there.

Outside of Skov, there just isn’t much to like here, as the volume of their other RBs is too difficult to predict. Justin Thomas is interesting, as based on previous years, Duke hasn’t keyed on stopping the QB in the option game. Last year the Georgia Tech QBs combined for 149 rushing yards and two TDs against Duke, and the year prior, their QB had 76 rushing yards and a TD to go with four passing TDs. However, his price really hasn’t moved, so he’s not coming at a discount, which makes it really tough to roster him in anything but a low dollar GPP.

Duke

Duke ran into the buzzsaw that is the Northwestern defense last week, and only has a team total of around 23 points here, so there’s nothing to be overly excited about. They’ve spread the ball around at WR and don’t have a top-notch RB, so the only guy worth a look here for me is their QB, Thomas Sirk. He’s actually their leading rusher on the year in terms of yardage, and Duke is leaning on him heavily as he had 39 pass attempts and 16 rush attempts last weekend. He’s averaging almost 13 carries per game, and that type of usage in the running game and passing game is tough to find at his price point. The matchup against Georgia Tech isn’t great, but it’s also not one I’m necessarily scared of either. Georgia Tech really struggled against the run last year, and was gashed by Notre Dame last weekend. There are some high-end QBs that I’m focusing in on this week, so he’s not at the top of my list, but he’s in play as a cheaper QB2 on two-QB sites, and is a tournament option on FD.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan State Spartans – O/U 54

Central Michigan

Central Michigan has a team total under 14 points, and with all of the other high-scoring options,* they are a an easy fade for me. The only potential play here would be Devon Spalding on DK as he’s very cheap, and he saw 30 touches last week due to an injury to Martez Walker. This Michigan State run defense is salty so he’s still risky, but volume could carry him here if Walker sits again. If Walker plays then this is a complete fade.

Michigan State

Michigan State should roll here as they carry a team total of 40 points, but the only guys on my radar are their WR, Aaron Burbridge and their TE, Josiah Price. Burbridge has stepped in the WR1 role and has been a fantasy monster with 100 yards receiving in each game, and four TD receptions. His monster game last week did bump his price, so he’s a GPP option for me as I do have him behind guys like Docston, Grant, Coleman and Lewis. Price is one of the better TEs in CFB and makes for a solid target on FD, but I’d prefer just to go grab Tyler Higbee.

As far as other options go, their QB, Connor Cook just doesn’t carry the upside I’m looking for, and isn’t particularly cheap. The same is true at RB as Madre London and LJ Scott can cap each other’s upside.

Brigham Young Cougars at Michigan Wolverines – O/U 44

BYU

This game is sitting at a total of 44 points, and given the other options in this slate, there’s just not a compelling reason to get much ownership here. Michigan has a rock solid defense and doesn’t play at a high pace, so there’s not a lot here for BYU. They finally had a RB emerge in Adam Hine, as he had solid day last weekend, but I’ll wait for a better spot and don’t fully trust him yet. Their QB, Tanner Mangum is seeing solid volume, and their top WR, Mitch Matthews, finally had a solid game, but given this total and Michigan defense, there just isn’t much upside that I see.

Michigan

Coming into last weekend, BYU was thought to have a tough run defense and be vulnerable to the pass. However, Josh Rosen struggled and Paul Perkins ran all over them for over 200 rushing yards. I still think this is a solid BYU run defense, and De’veon Smith isn’t Paul Perkins, so I’ll stay away here and see if Smith can finally show any consistency. Amara Darboh and Jake Butt have both come back down to earth after their big openers, as their QB, Jake Rudock, can’t be counted on from a week to week basis. I don’t mind Butt on sites where a TE is necessary, but he’s not my top option, and overall this doesn’t profile as a game you need exposure too.

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