CFB Grind Down - Week 4 Early Slate Page 4
Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators – O/U 48
| Tennessee Volunteers | Florida Gators | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23.25 | 1.5 | 80.33 | 67.00 | 24.75 | -1.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 189.00 | 246.00 | Offense | 238.00 | 170.00 |
| Opp Def | 200.00 | 58.00 | Opp Def | 236.67 | 158.00 |
| Opp Def Rank | 44th | 2nd | Opp Def Rank | 111st | 44th |
Tennessee
Last year this was 10 to 9 snooze fest, and while I’m expecting more points than that, Vegas does have this one pegged as one of the lower-scoring games on the day. This will be a much different Tennessee team, as Joshua Dobbs didn’t play in this one last year, and they’ve added Alvin Kamara at RB as well. Dobbs and Jalen Hurd are great players, but they aren’t cheap and Florida is just loaded with athletes on defense, so I’ll pass on the Vols this week.
Florida
Florida hasn’t looked great offensively and is really spreading the rock around, so they’re another team that I’m largely just avoiding. Treon Harris did get suspended, so this will be Will Grier’s show at QB in this one. He did run for 60 yards and a TD, but struggled in the passing game and hasn’t thrown for more than 175 yards this season. He’s a young kid that is going to be good down the road, but this isn’t the spot for me to jump on with him. They’ve taken a committee approach at RB and WR, so I’ll pass there.
California Bears at Washington Huskies – O/U 61
| California Bears | Washington Huskies | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.75 | -4.5 | 75.67 | 61.33 | 28.25 | 4.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 353.33 | 209.67 | Offense | 281.33 | 107.00 |
| Opp Def | 174.67 | 93.00 | Opp Def | 235.67 | 188.33 |
| Opp Def Rank | 20th | 37th | Opp Def Rank | 91st | 98th |
California
Jared Goff looks like a future top-10 NFL draft pick, but Washington isn’t a pushover and there are just other QBs in better spots for me this weekend. He’ll spread the ball around offensively, but his top target in the red zone is clearly Kenny Lawler, who has five receiving TDs on the season. Lawler brings good size at 6’3’‘,and Goff often will let him go up and make a play over smaller cornerbacks in the red zone, which is what happened against Texas last weekend.
Lawler is a solid option, but the big news will be the status of their starting RB, Daniel Lasco. Lasco missed their game against Texas with an injury, and Vic Enwere drew the start. He’s a bigger back and got the goal line work, which produced two rushing TDs as well as 73 rushing yards. He’s still minimum price on FD, so if Lasco sits, then he’s a tremendous value play that lets you load up everywhere else, and he’s cheap on FA and DK as well.
Washington
I’m not sure exactly what the Cal secondary is or isn’t teaching, or maybe they aren’t identifying the correct recruits, but this Cal secondary is once again a full-on target. They finished dead last in passing yards allowed the past two years, and this year looks to be more of the same as they allowed 360 yards passing to an unproven passer in Jerod Heard. Heard is a dynamic runner, but he still has a ways to go in the passing department, so that yardage total tells me this Cal secondary is in for another long year.
Washington QB Jake Browning struggled against Boise State as it was his first start as a true freshman. However, he’s bounced back strong as he’s thrown for over 300 yards in each of his last games, with five total passing TDs. Given the matchup, I could easily see him throwing for 300 yards and three TDs here, and he’s a rock solid option in that mid-tier price range around the industry. It’s tough to nail down a WR to pair him up with, as no WR has stepped up as a true number one. Jaydon Mickens (10/212) has had his moments in the past and is a big-play threat, but Dwayne Washington (14/204/2), who is a RB, has actually led them through two games. I’d prefer to roster Browning by himself as I don’t full trust any of these guys, but in a large field tournament I don’t mind pairing him with Mickens. They have an okay TE in Joshua Perkins and he’s a guy I’m looking to as a cheap, minimum-price TE on FA. At RB, I’ll be staying away as they were RBBC against Boise, and while Myles Gaskins leads them, almost all of his production came against an FCS team in Sacramento State.