CFB Grind Down: Week 4 - Page Two

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-09-25 22:20:43

Hawaii Warriors at Wisconsin Badgers – O/U 50

Hawaii

None – I do not trust Wittek here against the Wisconsin defense as this game has a low total and Wisconsin is favored by 25. Yes, Hawaii was solid in their last game but they are only projected to score around 13 points in this one which means no upside and no big play ability. Hawaii is traveling a good number of time zones to play at 8pm Eastern and I just want nothing to do with them against a Wisconsin team who should roll.

Wisconsin

Primary Plays

Dare Ogunbowale ($6,600 FD, $4,700 DK) – Ogunbowale has outgained Deal on three fewer carries since taking part of the timeshare without Clement, and with Clement gone for a few more weeks, he should continue to receive a good number of carries each week. Ogunbowale is cheaper on both sites, is a better runner in my opinion and is active in the pass game, being the third-highest targeted player on the Badgers. I think the choice is simple here and despite the timeshare, I am looking for Ogunbowale to make value fairly easily.

Secondary Plays

Alex Erickson ($6,400 FD, $4,800 DK) – Erickson is the clear #1 WR in the Wisconsin passing game and while he does not have huge upside, he has a nice floor as Stave continues to throw him the ball. Wisconsin will continue to be a run-first team but Erickson’s 24 targets through the first three games and six red zone targets are good numbers that make me want to use him, especially on DK at that price. On FanDuel, I like a few guys more around that same price range, so I dropped Erickson to a secondary play.

UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats – O/U 66

UCLA

Primary Plays

Paul Perkins ($9,200 FD, $8,400 DK) – We have got to the point of the night where the RBs take center stage, as there are a few really solid matchups for these backs. Perkins is an absolute workhorse for UCLA and when Rosen struggles, the Bruins ride Perkins into the night. I am waiting another week on Rosen to see what he does so if I am choosing a UCLA player to do damage in this one, it is Perkins.

Secondary Plays

Jordan Payton ($7,000 FD, $5,700 DK) – Payton is the #1 target for UCLA based on the 19 targets he has received so far, and despite the Bruins spreading the ball around pretty well, he is still the go-to guy. I am not huge on Rosen in this one, and I am most likely going to be fading him in my lineups. Payton is a top target in the red zone for UCLA and should be one of Rosen’s targets for TDs, if they are not going to Perkins.

Arizona

Primary Plays

Nick Wilson ($8,200 FD, $7,500 DK) – At home, with no Myles Jack on the other side, with a solid offensive line and being the workhorse back in a solid offense, I would take Wilson over Perkins any day in this spot. I also think that Wilson could be the top RB on the slate based on price. He disappointed in the first week, but got back on track the next two weeks, and I think we see another 20-carry, 150-yard, 2-touchdown game out of the Arizona RB.

Secondary Plays

Johnny Jackson ($3,000 DK) – For whatever reason, Jackson is not available on FanDuel but I really like his $3,000 price point on DraftKings. You cannot expect the senior to continue putting up the target numbers that he is (leading the team with 22 and having five targets in the red zone), but he is a major part of this offense and is minimum salary here, which should open up a lot of opportunities for other guys. Jackson has caught a TD in every single game, and while the ‘Cats offense has a lot of guys in Phillips, Richards, Jones and even Grant, Jackson is the cheap way to get good exposure.

Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks – O/U 68

Utah

Primary Plays

Devontae Booker ($9,700 FD, $8,800 DK) – You are going to have to pay for Booker, but what you are paying for is consistency, carries, a high team total and a solid offensive line. At 5 yards per carry, the 30 carries Booker gets are good enough to get 150 yards and usually 2 touchdowns with a few catches out of the backfield. Against a high tempo team like Oregon, Booker is going to get all he can handle. Utah has a solid over/under in this game and is expected to score around 30 points, which means those points have to come from somewhere. With no other reliable option, Booker is the guy. Good luck fitting him in, but he has the highest floor and highest ceiling of any RB on the late slate.

Secondary Options

None – Booker is basically the be-all end-all of this offense, as we are not even sure that Wilson is going to start and Covey is not a reliable WR for $4,500. With Booker getting a ridiculous number of the offensive play calls, it is recommended to use him or fade this team.

Oregon

Primary Plays

None – Someone will score for this team, I am just not going to be the one to predict who will score. Vernon Adams is too expensive for my liking especially after missing a week and I cannot bring myself to use Royce Freeman when I could have Booker or Wilson for similar prices. Utah has a solid defense and outside of Freeman, there really is not anyone who I love on this offense.

Secondary Options

Royce Freeman ($9,100 FD, $8,700) – Despite not being one of the top options in cash, I think there is merit in using Freeman as a GPP option. Freeman has an extremely high upside, one we have not seen yet due to only having 10 carries against Georgia State and being essentially bottled up against the tough MSU run defense. We somewhat saw his upside in the first game with 180 yards and 3 TDs, but if we are expecting that half the time against Utah’s run defense, I think we will be disappointed.

USC Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils – O/U 63

USC

Primary Plays

Juju Smith-Schuster ($8,200 FD, $7,500 DK) – It is probably criminal in 35 states to have Juju priced this low on each site. He is an absolute monster WR with great hands and big play ability every time he touches the ball, not to mention he has a stud QB throwing him the ball. We have a huge over/under in this game and Juju is my favorite play of the day. He is going to be highly owned, but fade him in cash at your own risk, as he has 10-catch 200-yard 3-TD upside in this game against a vulnerable Arizona State secondary.

Secondary Plays

Cody Kessler ($8,900 FD, $8,700 DK) – I am high on Kessler but I am not sure I love his price. I really like using dual-threat QB’s and Kessler just does not bring that option. That being said, he is one of the best pure pocket passers in the game and has the ability to get it to any of his WR’s on a whim as shown by the first few games. His upside is somewhat limited because of the unlikelihood he actually takes off with the ball, but the floor is certainly there. I like Tre Madden as well, but I want some clarity on his calf/hammy before marking him as a solid play.

Arizona State

Primary Plays

Demario Richard ($7,900 FD, $8,000 DK) – I think his price on DK is right where it should be, however, the price on FD is extremely cheap for the upside he provides. He is the #1 option in the running game as shown by his domination in carries and he is also an option in the passing game with 16 targets. His upside is extremely high here at home against USC and he joins the ranks of the stud RBs worth using as high-dollar options in the later late games.

Secondary Plays

D.J. Foster ($7,100 FD, $6,700 DK) – Keep an eye on Lucien’s status as he makes a solid cheap play if he plays, but if he does not, give a bump to both Foster and Richard as they will be targeted a ton by Bercovici. Foster has not had a breakout game yet, but the former RB has the speed and power to make an impact considering that he is still getting some carries as well.

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans – O/U 56

Fresno State

Primary Plays

Marteze Waller ($6,800) – A DK-only game has Fresno hanging in this game with San Jose State despite potentially playing without their QB Greenlee. If Fresno are forced to play Ford Childress at QB, I can only imagine the volume Waller would get considering he has averaged 22 carries per game in his first three games. Waller is a small guy and not overpowering, but he is a workhorse and is quicker this year than the last few years. He is facing a defense in San Jose State that allowed Storm Woods to rush for 151 yards on 17 carries. The SJSU rush defense is not a good unit and Waller is a top play on this slate.

Secondary Plays

None – With Greenlee’s status up in the air, I would not consider any of the Fresno WR’s despite the fact that they have thrown the ball a lot. This is going to be a game dominated on the ground and Waller is the play.

SJSU

Primary Plays

Tyler Ervin ($7,600) – I love Ervin in this game as he has been the back for SJSU who has done all of the damage in the early part of the season. We’re talking about three straight games over 30 DraftKings points and averaging around 18 carries per game. I am a little concerned about his workload, as they will most likely get Thomas Tucker back from an ankle injury and the flu, and he is an extremely talented back himself. Watch the situation closely, and with SJSU favored against a below average Fresno State defense, if Tucker sits, it is all in on Ervin who is a threat in the passing game as well.

Secondary Plays

Tyler Winston ($5,200) – I do not usually like to use TEs on DraftKings, so while Freeman is somewhat of an option I am still staying away from him even at $3,800. If you need salary space though, he could be a solid option, but I like Winston, who is the top WR in the SJSU passing attack. I am really not sure what to make of the SJSU passing attack with Potter injured, so I will most likely be staying away from Winston as well.

Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats – O/U 50

Ball State

Primary Plays

None – I cannot really get on board with any of the plays from Ball State here as Northwestern has a top defense in the nation. We look for upside with most of the guys we roster as we want those huge 6x and 7x type salary games from our guys and I just do not think that any of the Ball State players are going to bring that upside here. That means it’s hard to recommend anyone here as a truly “elite” play.

Secondary Plays

Riley Neal ($3,900) – If you need some value at QB, you could do a lot worse than Riley Neal. The new starter for the Cardinals has actually looked competent in his time out there and is one of the cheapest QBs I have ever seen. He is still playing the Northwestern secondary but with targets like Jordan Williams and Kevonn Mabon out there, he has some chances to put up some points. Both of those WRs are extremely cheap making an interesting stack possibility in GPPs as well.

Northwestern

Primary Plays

Justin Jackson ($6,700) – Northwestern loves to keep the ball on the ground and beat down the defense, and they will do that all day with Justin Jackson here. I think Jackson has one of the top upsides of the day for the $6,500 range as he will carry the ball 20 times and has a shot at 8 yards per carry against a weak Ball State run defense who has allowed some huge games on the ground so far this year. The price point is awkward, but Jackson is the guy I like from Northwestern.

Secondary Plays

Clayton Thorson ($5,700) – If you need value from the QB spot, I think Thorson brings it. He is not a high upside guy, but he is somewhat of a dual threat with some running ability and can easily pick up 3 TDs with at least 1 on the ground. He only needs about 25 to reach value and a 200-yard passing, 2-rush TD, 50-rush yard game accomplishes that against a poor rush defense.

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