CFB Grind Down: Week 4 Late Slate
Each week, one of our experts will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.
This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.
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Vanderbilt Commodores at Ole Miss Rebels – O/U 55
| Vanderbilt Commodores | Ole Miss Rebels | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.25 | 24.5 | 79.67 | 67.00 | 39.75 | -24.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 302.00 | 142.67 | Offense | 352.33 | 215.00 |
| Opp Def | 205.00 | 164.67 | Opp Def | 153.33 | 117.33 |
| Opp Def Rank | 58th | 79th | Opp Def Rank | 28th | 60th |
Vanderbilt
Vandy is projected to score just over two touchdowns by Vegas in this game, which is never a total you want to look for when targeting a team for fantasy. The ‘Dores are coming off a slaughtering of Austin Peay where Trent Sherfield put up monster numbers, but the passing game seems somewhat like fool’s gold, as it was Latevius Rayford who looked like the number one option in the first game. Despite allowing 37 points to Alabama, the Ole Miss defense did not allow a monster game from anyone and Alabama is light years ahead of Vanderbilt. Long story short, I will be avoiding the Vanderbilt attack here, and even though Ralph Webb’s price is a bargain price on both FanDuel and DraftKings and you know he will get the targets, I most likely will not be partaking due to the matchup.
Ole Miss
Primary Options
Chad Kelly ($8,400 FD, $7,800 DK) – Despite the fact that Vanderbilt’s defensive numbers look solid because of the 144 total yards they gave up to Austin Peay and 246 to Western Kentucky, Vegas is still seeing a blowout here, and I am with them on that. Kelly has been fantastic this year and has distributed the ball well to his top three WRs, who all make solid plays on this slate as well. I am expecting him to be slinging it across the field again, as the Ole Miss rushing attack has left a lot to be desired while Walton gets up to speed. Kelly might not be much of a dual threat, but he’s been not afraid to run it in when he gets to the goal line and has been tossing TDs like mad. He is not my favorite QB play on the slate, but I doubt you can go wrong using him.
Laquon Treadwell ($7,200 FD, $5,800 DK) – Treadwell may not have had any of the best fantasy games for this Ole Miss attack, but I still see him as the top dog in this offense and think you get get him at a reasonable ownership discount. He leads the receivers with 25 targets, and even though Core and Adeboyejo have had better games, Kelly looks Treadwell’s way more times than not. It is only a matter of time before we see a 10-reception, 150-yard, 2-TD game from the stud wideout. His price on FanDuel is not my favorite, but at $5,800 on DraftKings I love him in both GPP and cash.
Secondary Options
Cody Core ($6,700 FD, $5,400 DK)/Quincy Adeboyejo ($5,900 FD, $5,300 DK) – We’ve seen both guys price go up because of some huge games, but I still like them in this game. Both guys are way behind Treadwell in targets, making them need to use the targets they get for big play potential, which they have done so far. I like both in GPPs because of that but would almost rather have Treadwell than both, as I think the ownership level on these two will be a little higher than it should be. Both have great potential to have a solid game against a weaker pass defense in Vanderbilt.
Texas A&M Aggies at Arkansas Razorbacks – O/U 58
| Texas A&M Aggies | Arkansas Razorbacks | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32.5 | -7 | 78.00 | 67.33 | 25.5 | 7 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 260.67 | 227.00 | Offense | 305.33 | 171.00 |
| Opp Def | 232.67 | 103.33 | Opp Def | 175.33 | 161.67 |
| Opp Def Rank | 65th | 18th | Opp Def Rank | 29th | 62nd |
Arkansas
Primary Options
None – This is a tempo-up game for Arkansas as Texas A&M really loves to throw the ball around and they play a ton of possessions. I just cannot see anyone here as a 100% elite option. The passing game is a mess with no Keon Hatcher, and while I like Hunter Henry, I do not think Allen has what it takes to consistently get it to his receivers. I am expecting a heavy dose of Alex Collins, but the price just is not there to be an elite option in my eyes.
Secondary Options
Alex Collins ($8,700 FD, $8,500 DK) – We know the volume is going to be there and we know the game plan is to run it down the other team’s throats, but this game just does not appear to be one where Collins can be classified as an elite play. A&M is favored by over a touchdown here, and with one of the lower over/unders on the slate, I think the game flow could go poorly for Arkansas; they may be forced to throw more than they would like. Collins has not had the games that we expected without Jonathan Williams to pair with him, and while I really like him as a safe option in cash, I just do not know if his upside hits enough to warrant the price point.
Texas A&M
Primary Options
Kyle Allen ($8,800 FD, $7,700 DK) – I really like Allen here in this game as a guy with a really high floor and a high ceiling which can be reached in the right situations. Allen is a solid passer with a good group of wide receivers around him. I really like his price on DraftKings, as I think he has as much upside in this matchup as Adams, who is $1,300 more. We are going to see A&M throw the ball a lot against an Arkansas defense which was shredded by the Texas Tech passing game last week and I think Allen has a big game.
Christian Kirk ($6,500 FD, $6,000 DK) – Kirk has emerged as the #1 target for Allen in this offense, and while there are a lot of guys around him like Reynolds, Noil, and Seals-Jones, Kirk has nine more targets than any of the other guys through three games. He is only one target back from Noil in the red zone as well, showing that he is still a target in dangerous areas. I love him on both sites for this price and I think he is one of the top receiving options on the late slate.
Secondary Options
Josh Reynolds ($7,000 FD, $5,500 DK) – Due to the hefty price tag, I would not use Reynolds for cash games because there are other, better, safer options out there. I do love his activity in the red zone, however I think that a 5-catch, 60-yard, 3-touchdown game is a possibility, and at his price he would be extremely low owned. He is only a secondary option at this point as Kirk is clearly the #1 option and actually cheaper than Reynolds on FD, but sometimes you need to be different to take down that big tournament.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Toledo Rockets – O/U 60
| Arkansas State Red Wolves | Toledo Rockets | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.25 | 7.5 | 78.00 | 52.00 | 33.75 | -7.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 199.00 | 215.00 | Offense | 152.00 | 122.00 |
| Opp Def | 242.33 | 124.33 | Opp Def | 210.00 | 169.33 |
| Opp Def Rank | 121st | 54th | Opp Def Rank | 68th | 65th |
Arkansas State
Primary Options
J.D. McKissic ($6,200 FD, $4,600 DK) – With the tight cap on DraftKings scoring, I really like McKissic here as a bargain WR play and I do not hate him on FD either. He has had a 1,000 yard season before, and in a pass happy offense that gets to take on a Toledo team which is a step down in competition from Missouri (maybe) and USC (definitely), he should get his share of targets. Speaking of targets, McKissic has had 18 so far this year and has reeled in 17 of those, making him one of the better possession receivers in the game and a near lock for value on DraftKings. I expect Toledo to get out front and force Arkansas State to pass in this game, making the game flow extremely in McKissic’s favor, since the Red Wolves will need to move the ball somehow.
Secondary Options
None – I thought about writing up Knighten, but he is coming off an injury and I am not really sure how he will perform in this game. He will throw a good number of times but there are better options around his price point.
Toledo
Primary Options
Damion Jones-Moore ($4,500 FD, $4,500 DK) – Big disclaimer on this pick is that you must check Kareem Hunt’s status before plugging in Jones-Moore here. Hunt is a stud in the Toledo system and if he is out, Jones-Moore, who has been productive in time time without Hunt this year, will step into a great situation. I am a little bit worried because the Arkansas State run defense is fairly solid, however the teams they have played so far have not had very great run games. I am looking for Toledo to get out front early and pound the rock with Jones-Moore, and if Hunt sits DJM is one of my top plays on FanDuel due to the price.
Secondary Options
None – Ely is not an option to me and neither is Corey Jones, the #1 WR for Toledo. They just do not have a dynamic enough passing game to warrant their prices on either site, and if Hunt plays they go even farther down in my book.
Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats – O/U 43
| Missouri Tigers | Kentucky Wildcats | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 3 | 67.00 | 64.00 | 23 | -3 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 217.33 | 107.67 | Offense | 191.67 | 166.67 |
| Opp Def | 193.00 | 187.33 | Opp Def | 112.00 | 105.00 |
| Opp Def Rank | 39th | 77th | Opp Def Rank | 12th | 11th |
Missouri
Primary Options
None – This is one of the least attractive games of the night in my opinion. We have a total of 44 and a close game with two offenses which have looked dreadful in the early going, not to mention two defenses who have played solid. Mauk has been hot garbage so far, and while Missouri is likely going to get their stud running back back in this one, the workload is up in the air at this point.
Secondary Options
Russell Hansbrough ($6,300 FD, $6,700 DK) – Before plugging Hansbrough in, I would need some clarification on how many carries he is expecting to receive and how they plan to use him. As noted above, this is a fairly nightmarish matchup for fantasy points; despite Hansbrough being an extremely talented back, his price is not near minimum and I would really only consider him on FanDuel, and even then I would need assurances of 25 touches. It is best just to stay away from this situation.
Kentucky
None – This is an extremely low projected pace game, and with both teams really struggling to move the ball, I think defenses will dominate. I do not love the prices and in CFB we need upside to grab those 40 point performances. I think there is a less than 5% chance that a 40 point performance comes from anyone in this game, so I will mainly be fading. I like the talent that Stanley Boom Williams brings, but Missouri has been great at defending the run so far and I do not trust Towles whatsoever.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers – O/U 58
| Mississippi State Bulldogs | Auburn Tigers | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 2 | 67.00 | 62.67 | 30 | -2 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 314.67 | 174.33 | Offense | 157.67 | 171.67 |
| Opp Def | 172.67 | 270.00 | Opp Def | 164.33 | 171.33 |
| Opp Def Rank | 6th | 127th | Opp Def Rank | 36th | 74th |
Mississippi State
Primary Options
Dak Prescott ($8,600 FD, $8,900 DK) – When Prescott takes the field in almost any game this year, he is going to be a top DFS target despite his price. He is a bit better priced on FanDuel but it’s favorable on both sites. The Auburn defense has been shredded by LSU, and gave up large chunks of yardage to Jacksonville State. Prescott has a solid matchup here and will be forced to play the entire game as Vegas somehow has Auburn as a favorite in this one. If you are paying up for QB, Prescott’s dual-threat ability makes him a great option.
De’Runnya Wilson ($6,300 FD, $5,000 DK) – Wilson is my preferred play in this one for the MSU receivers, as he is still the #1 option in this passing attack despite the targets that Ross has received. Prescott is going to need to throw in this game and will look to Wilson a lot as this is the first real test for the Bulldogs. I am looking for Wilson to pay off his salary with a couple of touchdowns against an Auburn team that has been able to be attacked through the air.
Secondary Options
Fred Ross ($5,800 FD, $3,600 DK) – While I like Wilson a bit more, 25 targets is a bit hard to ignore from a guy on a team who is going to be pass happy in this game and has one of the top quarterbacks in the nation. Ross’ price is ridiculously low here on DraftKings where you need some value, and while I would not use him on FanDuel, I certainly could see him being used as a filler to rack up the receptions in a cash lineup.
Auburn
Primary Options
Sean White ($6,800 FD, $5,200 DK) – I would put White more as a secondary option on FanDuel, but I really love his price on DraftKings. Jeremy Johnson was absolutely awful and deserved to get pulled, so we get the first look at the freshman for the Tigers. White is a solid pocket passer with not much dual-threat ability but for $5,200 in this Auburn offense, who is still favored against Mississippi State even after the news that White would be starting, he makes a solid play. I find him more of a GPP play on FanDuel because of the advanced price over there, but with DK’s tight cap I do think he is usable in cash despite the fact that we have not seen a game from him yet. We only need 20 points to reasonably feel good about his performance and 200 yards and three total TDs is not out of the question here.
Secondary Options
D’Haquille Williams ($6,400 FD, $4,700 DK) – We are looking at a guy in Williams who has all the talent in the world and is really disappointing this year with the suspension and the lack of trust given to him by Malzahn. He is a very risky play, but with a guy coming in who is less of a dual threat and more of a pocket passer, Williams could seize the opportunity and run with it. Johnson has not been able to get his receivers the ball consistently, so if White comes in and plays well, I want to be the one to jump on the Williams bandwagon while his price is still low.
Ricardo Louis ($5,700 FD, $4,100 DK) – I think Williams is a fantastic GPP option, but if I am looking to stack a WR with White in cash and even in GPPs, Louis is my guy. He has the most targets on the team right now and is the guy this offense trusts, especially Johnson. I think Louis should continue to grab a lot of the targets and is a much safer play than the enigmatic Williams in this matchup.