CFB Grind Down: Week 5 - Early Slate - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-06 19:43:45

Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers – O/U 47

Iowa

This is another game with a low total and one I’d feel very safe fading completely as both teams play very slow and don’t have explosive offenses. If I’m rostering a player from one of these lower scoring games they need to be cheap and I’m just not seeing it here. There are questions at RB for Iowa; Leshun Daniels could return which would hurt Jordan Canzeri, and Wisconsin isn’t typically a team to target with a ground game. The Iowa passing game is never one to get too excited about, and although C.J. Beathard is somewhat cheap, I’ll pass.

Wisconsin

This is another offense that I’m avoiding as this just looks like a 20-14 type of ball game. The Wisconsin passing game is one I never target, but their running game usually makes for a great target. The problem is that Corey Clement is out and Taiwan Deal and Dare Ogunbowale are splitting carries and have alternated big weeks, so it’s tough to nail down which one to roll with. I’d be more inclined to take a shot with one of them if the matchup was better, but Iowa has been solid against the run, allowing only 3.0 YPC on the season. I’d expect to see them each with 16-20 carries, and you have to hope the one you roll with is the guy who gets into the end zone.

UPDATE – I’m mostly rolling with Tyler Higbee and Jaylen Samuels, but if you need a TE punt on FD, Austin Traylor is just $2,300 and has scored a TD in each of his past three games. He won’t see near the volume of those other two, but Wisconsin is looking his way in the red-zone so maybe we can pry another TD out of him this week.

Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane – O/U 81

Houston

Now we’re talking. This one will be loaded with offense as it carries a total of 80, which is the second highest on the slate. The Cougars have looked very good under Tom Hermann, who was previously the OC at Ohio State, and knocked off Louisville earlier this year. They have a team total of 43 points and the great thing is that they’re a fairly easy team to nail down.

Greg Ward, Jr. has been fantastic this season and finds himself in a great spot against a weak Tulsa defense. He’s thrown for eight TDs and has double figure rushing attempts in each game this season, as well as at least 90 rushing yards in each. Tulsa in particular has been abused by dual threat QBs, as they allowed 360 total yards, including 97 rushing yards, to Jaquez Johnson, and 572 total yards, including 85 rushing yards and two TDs, to Baker Mayfield. Ward is on a different level as a runner than both of those QBs, so he should see plenty of success on the ground. His top target by a wide margin is Demarcus Ayers, who has at least eight receptions in each game this season, and even gets a few carries a game as well. Both are guys I’d look to get exposure to this week.

Their RB Kenneth Farrow has had a slow to start to the season and has yet to reach the end zone, but I think that changes this week. His struggles have led to a cheap price point around the industry, so I think he’s a solid target in cash games and tournaments. He was a workhorse in UH’s one close game as he had 27 carries, and this Tulsa run defense is 119th in rushing yards allowed per game. He had 14 rushing TDs last season, so I’m expecting him to start getting into the end zone – starting with this game.

Tulsa

This UH defense appears to be a solid group, but it hasn’t mattered who Tulsa has played; they’ve produced big point totals no matter the opponent – just ask Oklahoma. Both teams are in the top 10 in plays per game, and UH has the 118th-ranked passing defense coming into this one as they’ve allowed 313 YPG. That’s a great sign for the high flying Tulsa passing attack which is led by Dane Evans. This QB slate is loaded, so he’s not at the top of my list, but he’s a guy I want some exposure to and he’s coming at a solid discount to the rest of the upper tier QBs. He doesn’t possess the running upside of Ward or Boykin, but he has thrown for 400 yards in two of his three games and is throwing to an elite set of wideouts in a QB-friendly offense.

His WRs to know are Keevan Lucas, Keyarris Garrett and Joshua Atkinson and all are in play. Lucas is the top dog, but he’s been the focus of opposing defenses over the past two games, which has opened up Garrett and Atkinson on the outside. He’s already piled up five TDs on the season, and with the success of Garrett and Atkinson, teams should have to play him more straight up. He’s easily a top five option at WR on a loaded slate. Dropping down a little, Garrett is producing big numbers and torched OU when they paid too much attention to Lucas. For me, he’s more of a GPP target as a pivot from the popular Evans/Lucas stacks. Finally, if you need some salary relief, Atkinson provides cheap exposure to the Tulsa passing game. He’s produced back-to-back 100 yard receiving games and his price is still very fair. He is the third option here, so his volume isn’t as guaranteed, but he’s a fine option as a WR3 or flex.

This entire Tulsa offense is in play and that includes their RB Zack Langer. D’angelo Brewer also gets some work, but Langer is the guy in the red zone and has been the workhorse of late. He’s notched 30+ carries in back-to-back games, and with the high total in this game, a multi-TD game is definitely in play.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats – O/U 40

Minnesota

The Minnesota offense is an easy fade for me, as they have been very underwhelming and this Northwestern defense has been great to start the year. Their team total is under 20, so I’d just cross them off you list and save yourself sometime to dig into the higher scoring games.

Northwestern

Northwestern is basically in the same boat as Minnesota, as this game has a total of 40. Northwestern does have one player worth a mention in Justin Jackson, as he’s sees huge usage and is cheap. He has at least 30 touches in each game this season, and has topped 35 touches twice. Minnesota is a solid defensive unit, but that is some elite usage for Jackson. His price is low due to him being kept out of the end zone, but the TDs will come at some point, and when they do he is going to blow away his value. His ceiling is capped by this slow paced game, but I could see him producing 100 rushing yards and a TD here as well as chipping in a few receptions.

Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina State Wolfpack – O/U 50.5

Louisville

Louisville has been one of the more disappointing teams on the season and they’ve had ongoing issues at QB. For now they seem to have settled on Lamar Jackson, who does bring some rushing upside to the table as he’s topped 100 yards rushing twice this season. This North Carolina State defense is still a mystery as they haven’t played anyone and Jackson is still cheap. The risk is that he’s still an erratic passer and Bobby Petrino has had a quick trigger pulling QBs this season. This game is also expected to be relatively low scoring and we’ll have to monitor the hurricane, which could make this a complete fade.

The other players worth a brief mention are James Quick and Brandon Radcliff. Quick is their top WR and has missed most of the season due to injury. He returned last week and scored a TD, but his upside is capped due to Jackson’s erratic passing. I was high on Radcliff coming into the season, but the production just hasn’t been there, and Jackson seems to call his own number in the red zone, and scoring TDs was Radcliff’s strength last season.

North Carolina State

North Carolina State has played absolutely no one, so they’re still a mystery, but they have some cheap options to help fill out our lineups. Jacoby Brissett has played very well at QB this season and does offer some running upside. I’m a little leery of him as he was very up and down last season, so I’d like to see him prove it against solid competition before jumping on board. He is very cheap though, so I don’t hate him as GPP play or as a cheap QB2 on DK.

At RB, I’m expecting Matt Dayes to be very popular on FD as that 30.1 FPPG sticks out like a sore thumb at just $5,100. Shadrach Thornton was just booted from the team, so Dayes should see all the work going forward. He’s run for 100 yards in each game this year and has six rushing TDs, while also seeing some work in the passing game. Those games came against very poor competition, so I definitely wouldn’t expect that type of production. However, at his price point on FD, we don’t need that production and he’s a great source of salary relief to let you spend at QB and WR.

The other player to know here is their “TE” Jaylen Samuel. I have TE in quotations because if you go and watch film on this guy, he doesn’t look anything like a TE, and they don’t utilize him as a typical TE. They get the ball to him on jet sweeps, wide receiver screens, and he gets handoffs out of the fullback position. He’s already produced five rushing TDs, as well as three TD receptions on the season, and is basically a cheat code at TE on FD. For cash games on FD, I’d recommend paying up to him or Tyler Higbee, as their upside laps the field.

Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders – O/U 88

Baylor

Texas Tech is involved in the game of the week again and this one is expected to be even higher scoring than last week’s game, as it checks in with an absurd total of 90. Baylor is similar to TCU, but they’re even deeper at WR, and they’re going to light up the scoreboard here. This one will be in Arlington, so this isn’t a true road game for Baylor, and I wonder whether Tech can bounce back after last week’s near upset of TCU. I wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor topped 60 here and Seth Russell is the top option at QB for me. He’s thrown 15 passing TDs in only three games, as well as seeing limited action due to blowouts, and Tech has the 105th-ranked passing defense. He also brings some dual threat ability to the table; six total TDs with 400 passing yards is not out of the question here.

He has three elite WR to throw to in Corey Coleman, Jay Lee and K.D. Cannon, and like the Tulsa WRs, all are in play here. Coleman is the top option on my board as he’s electrifying (17/460/8 in only three games) and Josh Doctson just put almost 300 yards receiving on the Red Raiders. Lee is Baylor’s number two option and I think he’s cash and GPP playable since he’s very cheap. I don’t mind pairing him up with Coleman and just stacking Russell/Coleman/Lee either. If you’re struggling to fit Coleman, Lee provides cheap exposure to the Baylor offense. Cannon is a little bit riskier in my opinion as he hasn’t seen the targets that Lee and Coleman have and is dependent on the big play. For that reason, he’s GPP only for me, but he’s very talented and has the ability to put up 120 yards and two TDs on just three receptions.

The Baylor running game is the tougher situation to nail down as they’re very deep. They’ve been in a lot of blowouts and they have four solid RBs, so they haven’t leaned on Shock Linwood too hard. The question here is whether they’ll start to lean on Linwood more now that they enter conference play, or whether they’re going to continue to get Johnny Jefferson, Terrance Williams and Devin Chafin (who could return this week) involved. It’s a tough question to answer, but if Linwood sees 20+ carries in this one he has big upside here, so he’s a guy I’d look to get some exposure to.

Texas Tech

The big question in this one will be the status of Patrick Mahomes who turned his ankle in the TCU game and is listed as questionable. I’m expecting him to play, but with all of the other elite options, it’s risky to roster him unless we get 100% word he is playing, and even then he’s not at the very top of the board. If it’s announced that he’s out, his backup Davis Webb is cheap on FA.

Tech’s top WR is Jakeem Grant, as their other WR (Devin Lauderdale and Reginald Davis) can be tough to predict. Tech should be throwing early and often trying to keep up Baylor, so Grant is a top 10 option at WR this weekend.

Deandre Washington came through with a monster game against TCU as he ran for 188 yards and four TDs. Due to that performance, his price is a little juiced on FD and FA, but he’s still very affordable on DK. He can be volatile due to Tech’s pass heavy offense, but he’s in a solid spot, as Tech will continue to lean on him more in the red zone if Mahomes is still hobbled. Mahomes has four rushing TDs on the season, so with him not at 100% they turned to Washington. As long as Mahomes isn’t fully healthy , Washington is cash and GPP playable for me on DK. If you need a cheap flex in a GPP on DK, Tech’s backup RB, Justin Stockton, can absolutely fly and is a big play waiting to happen. They tend to throw him a couple of screens each game and try to get him into space, and at $3,400 he only needs to bust one of those.

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