CFB Grind Down: Week 5 - Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-05 15:55:14

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

NOTE – I’ll be focusing on the pricing at FanDuel (“FD”), DraftKings (“DK”), as well as the main slate on FantasyAces (“FA”).

Looking for the late slate of games? Check out our breakdown from Varncass here.

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies – O/U 49

Pittsburgh

This game checks in with a very low total of 46.5 points, and with all of the other high-scoring games, there’s just not a lot to like here. Virginia Tech has really struggled with their run defense as they are 106th in rushing yards allowed per game. However, Pitt lost their All-American RB, James Conner, in the first game of the season, and have struggled to run the ball since then. They listed three co-starters at RB on their depth chart (Chris James, Darrin Hall and Qadree Ollison), so it doesn’t look like there will be enough volume to warrant a look here, especially given the low total. Their QB play has been bad, which has affected their one remaining star, Tyler Boyd. He’s really talented and has double digit receptions in each of his two games this season, but other WRs at his price point are just in much better spots this weekend.

Virginia Tech

Pitt has been very good defensively to date as they are top 20 in both rushing yards allowed per game as well as passing yards allowed per game (although they haven’t played a great schedule). Virginia Tech is RBBC so cross them off the list, and the only three players worth a quick mention here are their QB, Brenden Motley, their top WR, Isaiah Ford, and their TE, Bucky Hodges. Motley has actually been pretty solid since taking over as starting QB for the Hokies. He has been a major factor in the run game with double digit carries in two straight games, and continues to be cheap around the industry. He’s not a guy I’d use on a single-QB site like FD, as I don’t like this slow paced matchup. However, he’s still just $5,700 on DK, so he’s in play as a cheap QB2 if you need salary relief.

His favorite WR continues to be Isaiah Ford. I’d pass on Ford on FD, but on DK he’s still cheap and has hit at least 4x salary in each of Motley’s starts. Finally, Bucky Hodges is typically a solid option at TE on a site like FD, but the problem is that there are two great options on FD that are in much better spots than he is (Jaylen Samuels and Tyler Higbee).

Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs – O/U 71.5

Texas

As mentioned, this slate really breaks down into some games you want to target and some you want to avoid. This is one of the games to target as it checks in with a total of 71 points. TCU has run the fifth-most plays per game, so this is a pace up game for the Horns as they have team total of 28 points against a TCU defense that is absolutely depleted due to injuries. The problem is that outside of their QB, Jerrod Heard, there’s just not a lot target here. Their starting RB, Jonathan Gray hasn’t topped 11 carries on the season, and Heard is still a work in the passing game as their leading WR, Daje Johnson, has only 13 receptions for 196 yards on the season.

Heard is intriguing, though, since he was solid in his first start, spectacular in his second start, and underwhelming in his start last week. Given his struggles last weekend, his ownership should be down, and while he’s still a work in progress in the passing game, he does bring dynamic upside in the running game. In his three starts, he’s averaging over 17 carries per game, but the problem is that last weekend Texas started to use their backup QB, Tyrone Swoopes, in short-yardage situations as a running QB. Swoopes vultured a 4th-and-goal rush TD, and if Texas continues to use Swoopes near the goal line, it’s a big hit to Heard’s fantasy upside, as we’re obviously rostering him for his rushing upside. With some more proven commodities at QB this weekend, I think he’s a risky cash game play, but a high upside GPP play, especially as a QB2 on DK or FA, as the TCU defense has been carved up by both SMU and Texas Tech in their past two games.

TCU

TCU came through in a big way last weekend as they put up 55 points, and Trevon Boykin, Josh Doctson and Aaron Green all had huge fantasy days. Boykin is in play each and every week as he’s one of the best in the country, and this week is no different; this Texas defense has taken a big step back this year and TCU has a team total of almost 43 points. With the TCU defense struggling, TCU knows it is going to have to win shootouts, and Texas is bringing the 97th-ranked passing defense to town. This slate is loaded at QB and I’m currently giving the slight edge to Seth Russell and Greg Ward, Jr., but it’s really just splitting hairs among this top group of QBs.

Like the TCU defense, the TCU WR group has suffered a ton of injuries – they’ve lost Deante Gray, Ty Slanina and it sounds like Kolby Listenbee could miss this game this weekend. As a result, Boykin just locked in on Josh Doctson last weekend, even when he was covered. He saw massive volume as there were times when Boykin just threw it up and let Doctson go make a play. As a result he set a Big 12 record with 18 receptions for 267 yards and three TDs. TCU will still be thin at WR, so he’ll continue to see insane volume and is my number two WR on the day behind Corey Coleman (again these WR and QB in these high scoring prolific offenses are neck and neck, and you’ll want to get exposure to them by running a few lineups in GPPs). In terms of where to look beyond Boykin, a lot will depend on the status of Listenbee, so that is an injury we need to monitor. If Listenbee sits then Jarrison Stewart and Desmon White would look to be the biggest beneficiaries. I’d look to them more as very cheap FLEX options on DK or FA as opposed to using a valuable WR spot on them on FD.

Aaron Green’s usage has really ticked up of late, as he’s had two rushing TDs in each of his last two games, and had 30 total touches last game. With all the injuries to the TCU WR group, he’ll likely continue to see heavy usage to take some of the burden off of Boykin. Given the expensive QBs and WRs today, he’s not a must for your cash games, but he’s a guy I’ll look to get some exposure to in tournaments.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma Sooners – O/U 58.5

West Virginia

I think this is one of the more interesting games of the day as it features two offenses that have been very potent, but two defenses that are by no means pushovers. Vegas is expecting a decent amount of points, but nothing crazy like some of the other games in the slate. We should see plenty of possession as both teams are ranked in the top 15 in plays per game. This will be West Virginia’s first true test of the season because they’ve played an easy schedule to date. However, they have some skill on offense and they all continue to be underpriced around the industry. Their QB, Skyler Howard, isn’t that high on my list on FD, but on DK he’s still sub $7,000 and a viable QB2.

OU’s pass defense was very poor last season, and they were shredded by the one good passing team they’ve faced this season (Tulsa). That puts their two top WRs, Shelton Gibson and Jovon Durante, in play for me. The problem here is that it’s difficult to know which one will go off. Last week all the action went to Gibson and he’s been their big play guy on the season. Durante never really had a chance to get going last weekend as West Virginia jumped all over Maryland, but he was very good in his first two games. He’s particularly intriguing on DK, where his price has dropped all the way down the $3,500.

At RB, Wendell Smallwood has been the more productive RB, so I’d target him over Rushel Shell. He’s still cheap on both FD and DK, so he’s a viable RB2. I’m still trying to figured out how much exposure to him I want though as I’m not sure what to make of this OU run defense. They looked really good against a solid Tennessee running game, but then were gashed the next week by Tulsa on the ground. That may have been OU simply having a letdown game, so I’ll get some exposure to Smallwood, but I’m not going to go overboard since I’m somewhat leery here.

Oklahoma

We’re not getting the cheap price points on the Sooners that we are on West Virginia, so they’re a little more difficult to target, as the UH/Tulsa game and Baylor/Texas Tech are my top priorities if I’m spending. Baker Mayfield does have a solid price point on DK at just $8,300 and he’s been great, averaging over 40 DK PPG this year. He’s surprisingly slippery in the run game and has averaged 13.5 carries per game over his last two games. West Virginia has allowed the least passing yards per game in the nation so far, but it’s hard to put too much stock into that as they haven’t faced a quality passing unit yet. I think Mayfield makes for a solid option on DK, but on sites where he’s priced there with Russell, Boykin and Ward, then I’d prefer those guys over him this week. His top receiving option is Sterling Shepard, who will have some big weeks in the pass happy Big 12, but this week he falls well behind some of the other top receiving options for me. They have a solid young TE in Mark Andrews, but on FD it’s either spend up to Jaylen Samuels/Tyler Higbee or punt the position for me.

The guy who has been hurt the most by the move to the Air Raid has clearly been Samaje Perine. His backup, Joe Mixon, is stealing some work in the passing game, and he’s not seeing those 30 carries a game that he saw last season. He did show some signs of life against Tulsa, so maybe he’ll start to get rolling, but he’s a tournament-only option for me this weekend. Baker Mayfield has four rushing TDs on the season, while Perine only has two, so at some point I’d expect that to start to even out.

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan State Spartans – O/U 57

Purdue

David Blough and DeAngelo Yancey were kind to me last weekend, but this is a pretty easy team to fade this weekend. They have a team total of just 17 points and I’ll just avoid this Michigan State defense here. Michigan State has been vulnerable to the pass, so maybe Yancey breaks a big play, but there are just too many other WRs in great spots to take that risk this weekend.

Michigan State

The Spartans have a solid team total of 38 points, but with the exception of Aaron Burbridge, they’re just not an exciting fantasy team. Their QB Connor Cook is a pro prospect but this isn’t a pass heavy offense like others around the country, and he’s never overly cheap. As a result he tends to lack upside and is a guy that I rarely roster. Their running game has been one to look to in the past, but Madre London hasn’t topped 18 carries this season and has been pedestrian. The two plays that do garner weekly attention are their TE, Josiah Price, and the aforementioned Burbridge. Price is a solid option at TE, as Purdue is the 103rd-ranked pass defense in the country. I like the upside of Samuels and Higbee better though. Burbridge is a different story as he has flashed that big upside with a three-TD game, and has topped 100 receiving yards in three of his four games. He’s coming at a nice discount compared to the other Air Raid WRs, and makes for a solid pivot in tournaments.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Missouri Tigers – O/U 42.5

South Carolina

This game has the third-lowest total on the slate so we don’t want to go too crazy, but there could be some value to dig into. South Carolina has turned to true freshman Lorenzo Nunez, and he had a solid afternoon in his first start as he ran for over 100 yards and threw for two TDs against UCF. The problem is that Missouri has been solid defensively this year; they are 22nd against the pass and 16th against the run. More importantly, Nunez’s big game resulted in a price bump, so he’s not very cheap. If I’m rostering a player from this one, he needs to be dirt cheap, and Nunez isn’t.

The QB play this year has really hurt their star WR Pharoh Cooper, and although he’s electric, I can’t’ go there this weekend given the low total. It looks like their starting RB Brandon Wilds could miss another game, but no RB stepped up in his absence and Nunez will see plenty of volume in the run game after he had 18 carries last weekend.

Missouri

I’d be more inclined to take the value on Missouri as opposed to South Carolina for a few reasons. The first is that South Carolina is the weaker defense in my opinion and has been average against the pass and the run. The second and more important reason is pricing. Nunez’s price is up as he started last weekend. Missouri’s starting QB, Maty Mauk, is suspended for this game, but that news wasn’t announced until after salaries were released. As a result, his replacement, true freshman Drew Lock, is dirt cheap on FD, DK, and FA. Now, don’t get me wrong, he’s certainly risky, and given the high point totals that the high end QBs are likely to produce, I don’t think he’s cash game viable, especially on FD ( I’m a little more open to him on two-QB sites but it’s still risky). However, he really lets you load up at RB and WR, and this proved to be an effective strategy last weekend with David Blough. I do think Blough was in a better spot against Bowling Green, but Lock has looked solid so far this season and he was highly regarded out of high school. He was an Elite 11 QB, a top 100 recruit in the country, and according to 247sports held offers from Ohio State, Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee. I’m not sure he can be much worse than Mauk was, and Mauk averaged 16 DK PPG, which is 4x Lock’s salary. I probably wouldn’t handcuff him with a WR, but if you’re looking to do so I’d lean to J’Mon Moore, and that duo is certainly very cheap on both FA and DK (don’t pay $6,400 for Moore on FD).

The last interesting piece for Missouri is their RB, Russell Hansbrough. He’s actually a really talented back that has been slowed by injuries this season. He returned last week but didn’t get a full workload, but he’s reportedly feeling the best he has this season, so maybe he gets the full workload in this one. He was a 1,000 yard back last year despite splitting carries, and he’s particularly cheap on FA. I’d do a little more digging closer to kick to see if he’s ready for a full workload, as South Carolina has been vulnerable on the ground allowing 5.2 YPC on the season.

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