CFB Grind Down: Week 5 - Early Slate- Page 4

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-03 20:27:55

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini – O/U 57

Nebraska

The Huskers’ draw a solid matchup with a below average Illinois defense and have a team total of 32 points. I’m most interested in their quarterback, Tommy Armstrong, as he has a solid price point and he’s seen a big uptick in volume and fantasy production this season. This isn’t the Nebraska offense of year’s past and Armstrong has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his past two games, and is also starting to get involved in the ground game. His favorite target has been Jordan Westerkamp, who has a receiving TD in each game this season. De-Mornay Pierson El, who is Nebraska’s second WR is expected to return from injury this weekend, but it sounds like he could be limited to just special teams duty. Terrell Newby had one big game earlier this year, but has otherwise been fairly quiet, so I’d primarily stick to Armstrong if you want some Nebraska exposure with a little Westerkamp maybe mixed in.

Illinois

Nebraska is 127th in passing yards allowed per game and the Huskers are favored, so Illinois could get the passing game working in this one. Despite Nebraska getting torched through the air, Wes Lunt has been very underwhelming at QB for the Illini, so he’s not a guy I’m looking at. I do think Josh Ferguson and Geronimo Allison are worthy of GPP consideration though. Ferguson is more of a DK play as he’s the rare RB that is better in PPR formats. He’s seen 20 carries in each of the past two games, and also has the ability to catch 5+ balls out of the backfield. Allison has been Illinois’ top WR this season and had double digit receptions in his last game.

Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys – O/U 50

Kansas State

This is the first time Kansas State has landed in the main slate, and they’re not the same team that we’ve grown accustomed to recently. They’re very young and lack talent at QB, as they lost their starter to injury, so I’d avoid their passing game. They’ve been a run heavy team on the year and it was freshman Justin Silmon that started to emerge last game with 24 carries and 119 yards. Most of the Kansas State faithful seem to feel he is the most talented back, so maybe we continue to see him featured. The worry is that Charles Jones seems to get a lot of red-zone work, so Silmon’s TD upside could be very limited, and OSU has been solid against the run. Overall this just isn’t an offense I want much to do with.

Oklahoma State

I’m off OSU as well as there are just too many moving parts here. They really spread the ball around at WR, so they’re all very risky. When they get inside the five, they’ve been bringing in their backup QB, J.W. Walsh, as a running threat and he’s now accounted for four TDs on the season, which really kills the value of their starting QB, Mason Rudolph, as well as hurting Chris Carson.

Washington State Cougars at California Bears – O/U 69

Washington State

OK, back to the good stuff. This game will be overshadowed by the Tech/Baylor game and UH/Tulsa game, but this one has a ton of potential to shootout. Last year this game combined for 119 points and Washington State threw for a ridiculous 734 yards and six TDs. Cal has shown some improvement in their pass defense, but they haven’t faced a top notch passing team yet and they did allow 300 yards passing to a run first QB in Jerrod Heard.

I really like the Washington State passing attack here, as they should be slinging it even more than usual as they try to keep up with Jared Goff and the Cal offense. Luke Falk is a solid option, but I’m more interested in their WRs Gabe Marks, River Cracraft, and Dom Williams. Cal has allowed 21 plays of 20+ yards this season, so a big play guy like Marks looks like a great option here. He already has a 14 reception game under his belt this season and is on his way to a big season. Cracraft is the PPR guy and had 11 receptions for 172 yards and three TDs in this matchup last year. Williams is the cheapest of the group, and is a frequent target in the red zone.

Cal

Cal features a future first round draft pick in Jared Goff and he threw for 534 yards and five TDs in this game last year. He’s not at the top of my QB list as the position is loaded, but he certainly makes for a fine option against a bad Washington State defense. He can really spread the ball around at WR, but Kenny Lawler has really emerged as his top target, especially in the red zone with six receiving TDs. Outside of Lawler, it can be tough as Bryce Treggs and Trevor Davis can be boom or bust options. I’ll have some exposure to Lawler, and Treggs and Davis are cheap FLEX options on DK if you need a cheap play, but they are volatile.

It looks like Daniel Lasco will return for this one, as he’s said to have practiced all week. As long as he’s 100%, he’s a guy that deserves consideration at $5,700 on DK in GPPs. He offers solid PPR upside and had 100 total yards and two TDs in this one last year. However, I’m always a little wary of guys in their first game back from injury, so he’s in the GPP-only category.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Rice Owls – O/U 72.5

Western Kentucky

This is a FD-only game, but it’s definitely not one to overlook as Western Kentucky games make for a ton of fantasy goodness. Baylor made quick work of this Rice defense, and WKU should see lots of success as they have a team total of 40 points.Brandon Doughty has bounced back from his tough season opener and has now topped 400 passing yards in three straight games, and he is a top option at QB whenever WKU lands in the game slate.

Doughty has a ton of weapons to use and the three primary names to know are Taywan Taylor, Jared Dangerfield, and Tyler Higbee. Taylor has put together back to back huge games with nine receptions and over 150 receiving yards, and is once again a great option. I think Dangerfield is right there with him for cash games and definitely makes the better tournament option. Most will choose Taylor, as he’s averaging more FPPG this season, but Dangerfield was the top dog last season, and has been limited by injury this year. He finally looked fully healthy last weekend and responded with 11 receptions for 148 yards and a TD. Finally, Tyler Higbee is a great option at TE and I’d look to get either him or Jaylen Samuels into your lineups. He did put up a goose egg in the first half last weekend, so I’m a little concerned about Dangerfield’s return cutting into his production, but he came through in the second half for two receiving TDs.

Finally, the RB situation for the Hilltoppers is a spot to monitor. D’Andre Ferby was the guy last weekend as he’s replacing Leon Allen, who is out for the season. However, Anthony Wales could return from injury this week, and he’s a guy I’d expect to eventually overtake Ferby. Wales is very cheap at just $4,900 and the Western Kentucky coach was “hopeful” he could return this week. If word comes out that he’s a full go, he makes for great tournament punt, as Rice is allowing 7.0 YPC and Wales had some productive games last season. If Wales sits again, Ferby is once again a viable play.

Rice

Western Kentucky features an explosive offense but an exploitable defense, so the Owls are in play as they have a team total of 32.5. They have a solid dual threat QB in Driphus Jackson and I’m expecting a solid game out of him, as Rice won’t be playing up in competition in this one like they did recently with Baylor and Texas. I think he’ll be very low owned and he could surprise, but given the depth at QB in this slate, he’s a tournament flier only.

Jowan Davis appears to the lead back for the Owls, but Darik Dillard also gets involved. Davis did run for almost 1,000 yards last season and is just $5,400 on FD. The situation is too murky for me in cash games, but I’ll take a shot on a few of these Rice players in tournaments as I expect them to be the lowest owned team out of the projected shootout games. Dennis Parks was a minimum price special last weekend, and came through with a TD. It looks like he was benched for an unknown reason last weekend, and I can’t find any information as to why. Maybe it was just due to a blowout. He’s not minimum price anymore though and at his price point I definitely wouldn’t use him for cash, but he could be worth a tournament flier.

Kansas Jayhawks at Iowa State Cyclones – O/U 57.5

Kansas

This is the DK-only game, and there one’s play from the Jayhawks that is worth a look. Kansas is a flat out bad football team, but Ke’aun Kinner has been their lone bright spot. He’s accounted for five TDs, and has topped 100 rushing yards in two games this season. He saw some work in the passing game last weekend and he’s Kansas’ main offensive weapon. Kansas is expected to be trailing here, so game flow could be a concern with a RB, but I think he’ll still see his touches as Kansas really can’t move the ball without him. Iowa State has been very leaky against the run, as they’re allowing 5.5 YPC and are 97th in rushing yards allowed per game.

Iowa State

Iowa State is the more intriguing team in this matchup as they have a sneaky team total of 37 points. Kansas has been a defensive sieve, so I don’t mind a few of these Cyclones in this spot. I expect S.B. Richardson to be very low owned at QB, and he’s a guy who can pop for a 30 DK point game every now and again. He has a deep WR corps to throw to, and this Kansas defense is really bad, so three TDs and 300 passing yards wouldn’t surprise me. They are deep at WR so it’s tough to target any of these guys, but I do like Allen Lazard’s talent level. It hasn’t quite translated into production yet, but he is leading them in receiving and is just $4,100, so I don’t mind him as a Flex play in tournaments.

Mike Warren took over as the lead back for Iowa State and had 21 carries for 126 yards against a very solid Toledo run defense. He’s just $4,400 on DK and is expected to continue to draw the start. Kansas is allowing 5.5 YPC and are 123rd in rushing YPG allowed, so he’s value option that is playable in both cash and GPP formats for me.

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