CFB Grind Down: Week 5 Page Three
Hawaii Warriors at Boise State Broncos – O/U 54
| Hawaii Warriors | Boise State Broncos | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.25 | 25.5 | 60.00 | 76.00 | 39.75 | -25.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 199.75 | 97.00 | Offense | 265.25 | 170.50 |
| Opp Def | 238.50 | 44.25 | Opp Def | 191.25 | 223.00 |
| Opp Def Rank | 65th | 1st | Opp Def Rank | 20th | 112nd |
Utah State
None – Pretty easy to continue to fade Hawaii here as they are only projected to score 14 points on Boise State. Pedroza or Kemp are interesting GPP plays, but extremely risky and I would not touch a Hawaii RB in this one. Keep away.
Boise State
Elite Plays
Brett Rypien ($6,600) – I really think cheap is the way to go at QB on this slate, as you can get exposure to decent passing offenses with solid over/unders. Rypien was not really forced to air it out against Virginia, but did anyways throwing for three TDs and over 300 yards. He looked really good in that game and I expect it to continue today against a Hawaii defense that is much worse than Virginia’s. He is cheap and has a great target in Sperbeck to get the ball to. I think he hits value a good number of times in this one.
Secondary Plays
Thomas Sperbeck ($6,300) – A guy who put up some solid numbers in the last couple of years gets Rypien in and has a rejuvenation in stats. He is the #1 option in this offense despite Williams-Rhodes having more targets, and I am looking for him to continue his rejuvenation against Hawaii. Generally, I would like McNichols here more, but I think it is a perfect opportunity against Hawaii to get Rypien more comfortable with the offense and I still think we see at least 30 pass attempts. McNichols is expensive and has not hit value once yet at this price this year. I like others at the same price more, despite how good he is.
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs – O/U 54
| Fresno State Bulldogs | San Diego State Aztecs | ||||
| Rd. Proj. | Rd. Spread | Pace | Pace | Hm. Proj. | Hm. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.75 | 8.5 | 71.50 | 65.50 | 31.25 | -8.5 |
| PaYd/G | RuYd/G | PaYd/G | RuYd/G | ||
| Offense | 192.50 | 150.00 | Offense | 154.50 | 139.75 |
| Opp Def | 257.00 | 140.25 | Opp Def | 254.00 | 190.25 |
| Opp Def Rank | 115th | 57th | Opp Def Rank | 91st | 113rd |
Fresno State
Elite Plays
None – I am not big on Fresno here as they should be held to under 25, and despite Greenlee’s return, the QB situation is still a mess. The receivers are all cheap, so if you want a guy like KeeSean Johnson I would not blame you, but I think we can find solid value elsewhere.
Secondary Plays
Marteze Waller ($5,300) – Game flow is against him and he has not been great this year, but he will continue to be fed the ball again and again and again, and should be a solid cash game play if you need a cheap RB. I cannot see him getting any less than 10 points, but I also cannot see him going over 25 due to game flow and a solid SDSU run defense which allows under 140 yards per game. Be careful with Fresno.
San Diego State
Elite Plays
Donnel Pumphrey ($8,600) – Pumphrey has faced some decent defenses so far this year, and now gets a Fresno State defense who is allowing around 200 rush yards per game. There should be a lot of holes to rush through tonight for Pumphrey, and with game flow looking to go in the right direction, I really like him here. I am not big on any of the other SDSU guys as a workhorse back, and not a big passing team will have the lead and continue to hand it off again and again to their big back. Use Pumphrey, or no one at all.