CFB Grind Down: Week 5 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-10-04 19:08:53

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Due to Hurricane Joaquin, the Michigan/Maryland game has been moved up from 8 PM to noon, which results in all players getting zero points. It was not one of the better games to target anyway, so we do not have to be sad – just filter it out.

Looking for the early slate of games? Check out our breakdown from a25smith here.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Tennessee Volunteers – O/U 55

Arkansas

Elite Plays

Drew Morgan ($5,700 FD, $4,700 DK) – Morgan has stepped into the leading receiver role without Keon Hatcher, and produced eight for 155 and a TD in the last game against Texas A&M. It is time to believe that Arkansas is more of a passing team than they were last year, so even without Hatcher, the receivers are going to get their targets. Morgan’s price is too cheap for this situation right now, and while I am a little concerned about him only having one red zone target through four games, he has managed to score three touchdowns in the four games.

Secondary Plays

Hunter Henry ($3,200 FD, $4,200 DK) – Henry is probably the only tight end I will likely be using in the late slate outside of Walley on FanDuel, as he is the most targeted receiver on the Razorbacks and is affordable. It pains me to use a TE on DK, so I do not like the price at $4,200, but I could see him as a GPP play against a Volunteers’ defense which allowed Florida to throw all over them, and has not been able to stop the pass this year. Allen has proven to be a decent QB at this point, so I am not completely fading the Arkansas passing game this year.

Alex Collins ($8,300 FD, $7,600 DK) – While I am not on Collins big this weekend against Tennessee, they have given up 145 yards per game rushing this season, and a guy who gets 27 carries per game in a rush heavy offense is always in play in some aspect. While I am not using him in cash, and I doubt he will be highly owned at this price (see Fournette, Leonard), I can see the argument of plugging him in if you have the space.

Tennessee

Elite Plays

Jalen Hurd ($7,500 FD, $7,000 DK) – Like Collins, Hurd is an absolute workhorse back, getting at least 23 carries in every game which has not been a blowout. Hurd finds the end zone like my dog finds the trash and the only thing that is keeping me away from him is the strength of Arkansas defense which is stopping the run. Arkansas hasn’t played a great rushing team yet (Toledo was without Hunt), but they still are allowing under 100 yards per game and the offenses like A&M and Texas Tech are still able to move the ball.

Secondary Plays

Joshua Dobbs ($8,900 FD, $8,000 DK) – Dobbs is always in play because of his rushing ability, but I really am not that high on him. He has been efficient passing-wise, but Hurd is taking a lot of his TDs in the red zone and Dobbs’ upside comes with his legs, which is the strength of the Arkansas defense. He certainly is not a bad play – Tennessee is favored and should score points in this game, it’s just the price and matchup that make some of the other QBs much better options.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at LSU Tigers – O/U 61

Eastern Michigan

Elite Plays

None – EMU is projected to score eight points here. On FD, I would never consider their players in this game as the 4,500 min salary is too high and their upside is too low. DraftKings is a little different with some tighter pricing, and all of the skill position players being min salary. There really is only one option in my eyes, and it is not a good one. See below.

Secondary Plays

Darius Jackson ($5,900 FD, $3,600 DK) – I would not consider Jackson on FD, but there is something to be said about his 3,600 price on DraftKings. Likely, he will get at least a quarter against the LSU B and C team, possibly more, and for a guy who receives about 15 carries per game and has shown burst in the previous games, I hate to say you cannot really just ignore him here. You can on FD as the Eagles are only projected to score eight points, but there certainly can be an argument for him on DK, especially since he has been active in the passing game as well, which may be the best way to attack this LSU defense and get him some space to work with.

LSU

Elite Plays

Leonard Fournette ($10,000 FD, $9,800 DK) – This is a very interesting situation. Fournette has been absolutely incredible in the first few weeks, and by no stretch of the imagination can EMU stop him here. Fournette is an absolute truck and EMU is the worst rushing defense in the nation, by far. If Fournette was guaranteed to play three quarters, his price would be a bargain but the fact of the matter is there are rumors that LSU wants to limit his workload so when this game is 30-0 or worse at halftime, we may never see him again. The good part of that, is that he could potentially have 300 yards and four TDs at that point. Fade at your own risk – Fournette is a special talent and the EMU rush defense is about as awesome of a matchup as you could hope for.

Secondary Plays

None – With the big blowout, I cannot get on any guys like Dural or Dupre. The downside is just too great considering they are only going to have to hand it off to Fournette and let him do his work. I would not be surprised if LSU threw the ball less than 10 times this game.

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida Gators – O/U 51

Ole Miss

Elite Plays

Jaylen Walton ($6,500 FD, $4,700 DK) – Not as big of a fan of him on FanDuel as I am on DraftKings, but I still think he makes a viable play. Despite the fact that Florida’s rush defense is stout, Walton is finally up to full strength and is being used as the workhorse back for the Rebels now. I can see the Rebels leaning heavier on the run as the Gators pass defense has been great in their first few games, and Kelly looks to be cooling off from his hot start. The price on DK is too good to pass up, and I think he is viable on FanDuel as well, with his talent and potential usage in this game.

Secondary Plays

Ole Miss Passing Game – Kelly is cheap and makes a solid QB start despite Florida’s solid secondary. Kelly will throw the ball all over the place and at 6,900 on DK is tempting. I like Prescott and Allen more on FD for around the same price. Treadwell is the clear number one here with double the targets of Core so at $5,400 on DraftKings he makes a great play. I would stray from Stringfellow and Adeboyejo in everything but GPPs, and both make extremely risky plays at that.

Florida

Elite Plays

None – I am having a hard time finding anyone I really like on Florida. Despite Grier passing 42 times last week, I highly doubt it happens again this week as the Gators don’t go out looking to sling it around to multiple WRs. I expect that Robinson is going to have a monster game one of these weeks, but I feel better about the Florida rushing attack here than any WRs.

Secondary Plays

Kelvin Taylor ($7,000 FD, $5,200 DK) – A borderline play here; Kelvin should get around 20 carries again today and will likely reach the end zone at least once. The price on DK is fair, and the price on FD is harsh, but can be worked. Ole Miss has actually given it up on the ground this year with 155 yards allowed per game, and while I am scared about game flow, I see Taylor having a decent game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies – O/U 63

Mississippi State

Elite Plays

Dak Prescott ($8,300 FD, $7,900 DK) – Prescott’s price is ridiculously low here, and despite actually being a dog in this game, still comes in at the top of the QB ranks today. There really is not a QB to pay up for on this slate and Prescott is the guy that I will try to roster in a lot of lineups. I am mainly looking for his rush upside as A&M has been solid against the pass this year, and if Prescott has his 100-yard rush and two-TD game like we were expecting out of him, he should make salary and give you one of the top scoring QBs for a little less than premium. Game flow won’t matter here, as Prescott is going to have the ball in his hands constantly and will put up yards and points.

Secondary Plays

De’Runnya Wilson ($6,300 FD, $4,600 DK) – We have not seen Wilson’s upside yet, and I doubt we see it here today. The good thing? He should get the benefit of game flow and should be looked to in the end zone as the top target for Prescott. I like Fred Ross too, but unless you’re using him on DK for the full PPR bonus, I am a little bit wary. Prescott is the guaranteed points play here, and anyone else is a risk.

Texas A&M

Elite Plays

Christian Kirk ($7,300 FD, $6,300 DK) – Kirk has been a straight stud since the beginning of the year. Never going below 14 fantasy points and actually having his best games against the best competition. His price refuses to rise on DK, and with the amount of targets he is getting from Kyle Allen, he makes a plug-and-play at this point. The rest of the A&M receiving crew is risky, while Kirk is the best bet you can get. At these prices, he is going to be highly owned, but fade at your own risk.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Allen ($8,900 FD, $7,500 DK) – Allen is right on the border of Elite and Secondary here, but I am bumping him down because I do not like his price on FanDuel, and it is somewhat difficult to get him with Prescott on DK. Allen is a solid passer with good volume and no rush upside. He has been efficient so far this year, and we have not seen his passing upside yet, which could be tested here against the Bulldogs. In MSU, Texas A&M is facing arguably the best pass defense they have faced all year, so this should be a test for Kyle, although I am still seeing around 300 yards and two TDs with solid game flow.

Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins – O/U 60

Arizona State

Elite Plays

None – No Myles Jack? No problem, as UCLA dismantled Arizona and kept Nick Wilson to 136 and no scores, but allowed Randall, the backup, to go over 100 and score. The rushing attack is the one I want to look at here, as Arizona was able to find some lanes to attack, but with ASU as a 14-point dog and a low total here, I am not sure the upside I am looking for is here.

Secondary Plays

Demario Richard ($7,300 FD, $7,500 DK) – I love the price and the workload for Richard, who is involved in the passing game some as well. I am just not sure where this game goes in terms of flow. I can see Bercovici having to air it out against a tough UCLA secondary, which takes down Richard’s upside. Richard is an electric playmaker and UCLA is missing their best linebacker, but still, Vegas does not see this game as good for ASU.

UCLA

Elite Plays

Paul Perkins ($8,200 FD, $7,700 DK) – If you want to use Richard, I would pay up the extra little bit on both sites and just roster Perkins. The game flow should be in his favor with the 14-point spread. He has received an average of 25 carries in the last two games and is an absolute touchdown machine for this offense. I trust Perkins a lot more than Rosen, and they should feed their star back the ball with a lead late in the game. Perkins is one of my favorite RBs in the slate (outside of Fournette, of course).

Secondary Plays

Jordan Payton ($7,300 FD, $5,600 DK) – As noted above, I do not trust Rosen at this point, and I like guys like Prescott around the same salary a lot more. Payton is by far Rosen’s favorite target, and is coming off his best game with a ton of confidence. Arizona State’s pass defense has been solid but Payton will get his, I am just not sure I can stomach the price with other solid options in his range on both sites.

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