CFB Grind Down: Week 5 Page Two

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-10-03 03:39:20

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Clemson Tigers – O/U 54

Notre Dame

Elite Plays

None – I am finding a hard time liking a ton of players here. Notre Dame is facing probably the lowest total they will see all season here, and the prices are all fairly expensive. We’re looking at the Irish playing away from home against a top-five defense in the nation. We can find better elite plays here.

Secondary Plays

DeShone Kizer ($7,800 FD, $5,700 DK) – I do not like Kizer’s price on FD, but I really like it on DK. He is probably one of the cheap QBs you need to really fill out your roster, and I would waver on placing him in the elite category on DK despite the low total. Kizer has imposed himself on this offense and is more than capable of making plays. It helps that he has one of the best WR’s in the nation in Will Fuller to throw to, and he can do it with his legs as well. The defense is scary, but he will put up some points.

Will Fuller ($7,700 FD, $6,900 DK) – If Kizer is in play, Fuller certainly is around the same price point. Fuller is the #1 target in this ND offense and is a top-five WR in the nation based on talent and ability. He has already put up 6 for 131 with a late TD against Georgia Tech with Kizer at the helm for a bit, and will be looked to early and often here. Like I have said multiple times, the matchup is scary, but the ability is definitely there.

Clemson

Elite Plays

None – Just like with Notre Dame, this could be one of the lowest totals Clemson sees all season. This is a great matchup to have on prime-time, but not such a great matchup for fantasy. Watson is the most expensive QB on both sites, and it is going to be hard to fit him in (and hard to rationalize it without Mike Williams). Clemson has a lot of talent in the offense, but Watson’s upside goes away without Williams, and Scott is not a guy who can step into that role. Be careful with him, as I like Kizer for much cheaper.

Secondary Plays

Artavis Scott ($6,700 FD, $6,600 DK) – Scott is going to catch probably 10 balls in this game, but I doubt that he will get a ton of yards. Scott is not the deep threat that Williams and a few others are, and will post up in the slot most of the game making Watson throw short little passes. I like Scott more on DK, and really do not like him a whole ton on either site, but I think there is merit to him hitting 25 points on DK with a couple of TDs and a gaudy catch number.

Oregon Ducks at Colorado Buffaloes – O/U 70

Oregon

Elite Plays

Royce Freeman ($9,000 FD, $8,100 DK) – Freeman makes a top target here against the Buffs who are expected to give up 40 points to this Oregon offense, even with the struggles that Oregon has had, which says to me that Freeman is going to have a monster game. The starting QB is still up in the air, but one thing is certain: Oregon is going to feed their stud RB. He still managed a nice fantasy day even against a stout Utah defense, and will run wild against Colorado.

Secondary Plays

Bralon Addison ($6,000 FD, $5,300 DK) – Addison has the most targets on Oregon, and with the uncertainty of the Oregon QB situation, I expect him to be lower owned than he should be. No Marshall should increase his value a bit, and despite not knowing who will start, both guys can get Addison the ball. Addison has monster upside with his speed, and if you are looking for a solid GPP guy, Addison is one of my favorites.

Colorado

Elite Plays

Christian Powell/Phillip Lindsay – This is assuming that Adkins is out of this game, and at the writing of this, he is questionable. Lindsay and Powell would likely split reps here, and while Colorado has recently not been known as a rushing team, they have done a lot of it this year, and extremely successfully, too. Colorado is going to score some points against a poor Oregon defense, and at min price for both of these guys and cheap prices on FanDuel, I can really see them hitting value and paying off. If Adkins is good to go, I love the price on both FD and DK, and he should be a great play as well.

Secondary Plays

Nelson Spruce ($7,800 DK, $6,400 FD) – Spruce has been extremely consistent and remains Liufau’s top target. While I expect a lot of carries to be given to Powell and Lindsay if Adkins sits, I think game flow and the less-experienced RBs will end up with Liufau throwing a bit more, and when he does, he will be throwing to Spruce. Oregon has been one of the worst pass defense teams in the nation this year, and despite it being a step “up” in competition, Colorado will still score points and Spruce is a solid target.

Sefo Liufau ($8,200 FD, $5,600 DK) – While I am not sure I would consider Liufau on FanDuel at that price, as it being a one-QB site and there are other, better, cheaper options; I am definitely considering him on DK at $5,600. With Kizer, he is one of the cheapest options that you can reasonably expect to make value and playing from behind should have him air it out a bit more. We have all expected more from him and the Colorado passing game this year and against Oregon who has allowed over 300 yards per game passing this year, Liufau is definitely in play.

Arizona Wildcats at Stanford Cardinal – O/U 62

Arizona

Elite Plays

Nick Wilson ($8,200 FD, $6,800 DK) – I like Wilson’s price here and I love the volume he is going to get. No matter if Solomon plays or if Randall plays, Wilson is going to get the rock over 20 times in this game, and while Stanford is a solid rushing defense, UCLA is not much different in the long run. Wilson should again eclipse 100 yards rushing fairly easily, and the only issue is if he reaches the end zone. The problem I see here, is that game flow might not go his way, and that if Solomon does not start, Stanford can key in on stopping the run. Stanford’s defense is not what we think of them in years past, but they are still a decent unit.

Secondary Plays

Arizona Passing Game – With Solomon playing, generally someone in the Arizona passing game is a play. My guy would be Cayleb Jones, and with a couple of poor games under his belt, his price is at the point where I really think he is one of the better plays (assuming Solomon starts). The problem here is that we might not know about Solomon until later Saturday, so play with caution. Also somewhat in play is Randall, the senior QB with a lot of running ability. If Randall starts, the passing game is out, and look at Randall for a little bit of cap relief.

Stanford

Elite Plays

Christian McCaffrey ($7,800 FD, $7,100 DK) – This is definitely a slate to spend up on RBs, as there are are ton of good RBs with solid matchups and with monster potential. McCaffrey got 30 carries last time out and there is no reason why he should not approach that today as well. The problem I see, is if Randall starts, this will be a quick game with no passes and the amount of possessions will be extremely low, making me not that excited to target these guys. That being said, I love the price for guaranteed volume for McCaffrey, and if Wright and Barry Jr. ever stop vulturing his TDs, he should put up a monster total.

Secondary Plays

None – I am not a big fan of the Stanford passing game but because the Arizona defense gives up a lot of their yards through the air, I had to look at them. Hooper is too expensive on FD for me and I am not using a 4k+ TE on DraftKings which makes Cajuste the only guy I would consider using and he has not shown anything this year as Hogan has not been good. I am avoiding this situation.

Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies – O/U 49

Colorado State

Elite Plays

Rashard Higgins ($7,300) – Higgins is a top 5 wide receiver in the nation and every game that he has played he has produced. I am hoping he is 100% here because a 100% Rashard Higgins is not someone that even the strong Utah State defense wants to deal with. Higgins is averaging over 10 targets per game that he plays and is the clear #1 WR with massive upside on this slate. He is one of my favorite WR plays despite the low CSU total .

Secondary Plays

Dalyn Dawkins ($4,300) – Make sure to watch his status, but I expect that he is going to play in this one. I really like Dawkins price as he should get a good number of carries despite the success that Oden is having. Dawkins is also active in the passing game with 17 targets on the year despite missing a good amount of time and makes the better play than Oden right now. If Dawkins is forced to sit which it does not look like he is, go ahead and roll Oden. I am a little concerned about the strength of this Utah State defense, but the pricing here should make Dawkins able to hit value.

Utah State

Elite Plays

None – Keeton’s injury means that Kent Myers will get the start here and I have no idea what to think of Myers. I am taking a wait and see approach with this situation and with no real solid running backs, I cannot really find a guy on Utah State I love. There should be value here though as Utah State has played some tough defenses to start the season – I am just not sure if I trust this offense as it is an unknown right now.

Secondary Plays

Hunter Sharp ($5,500) – Sharp would be an elite play if not for Keeton’s injury concern. Sharp had 11 targets in his first game back from suspension against a Washington defense that Utah State struggled to move the ball against. He will no doubt be one of Myers favorite targets and should reach 10 targets again, but can Myers get him the ball? We will find out. I love the price here and think he hits value a good number of times at this price, but it is definitely a riskier pick.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders – O/U 49

Vanderbilt

Elite Plays

Trent Sherfield ($5,100) – Sherfield is the clear #1 here with his 41 targets through 4 games and has put two solid games together in a row. Sherfield makes a great play for the price tonight as I think he has around a 5 catch for 50 yard floor. There is nothing special about Middle Tennessee State’s defense, but there really is nothing that they are too poor at either making thme a middling defense that Vandy should be able to move the ball against fairly well. I am not a fan of this Vandy team and I think they lose here which boosts Sherfield as game flow should go his way.

Secondary Plays

Ralph Webb ($6,000) – Most RB’s that you can pencil in 25 carries against a middling rush defense should be at least considered in some ways. I am on the fence about Webb again this week and I think he hits his 80 yards and a touchdown pretty easily. I could see a rare, maybe 5-10% likely situation where he goes for 200 and 2TDs but I am not risking that in a lot of lineups. Webb is a solid cash game play, and that is about it.

Middle Tennessee State

Elite Plays

Brent Stockstill ($6,100), Ed’Marquess Batties ($6,200), Richie James ($5,900) – Not household names for any reason, Stockstill Batties and James have MTSU as favorites here over an SEC team. Stockstill has been a great QB in the first few weeks with a ton of attempts and has been extremely accurate. He has slung the ball all over the field and given it to his top 2 receivers religiously. I could definitely see a Stockstill stack this week with Batties and James as the prices are solid and I would expect MTSU to continue to pass. The targets are there and these guys have been some of the better fantasy performers of the year, albeit in poor games. Vandy’s defense is OK so I would not recommend going all-in here, but I certainly see the merit in using these guys.

Secondary Plays

None – I am concentrating on the pass game in this one as I think that MTSU continues to throw the ball even while ahead, and if they get behind they will throw. Jordan Parker is extremely cheap but outside of one game where he averaged 10 YPC on 14 attempts, he really has not done much.

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