CFB Grind Down Week 6: Early Slate - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-09 20:04:57

Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks – O/U 77

Baylor

This game carries a total of 78.5, and Baylor has a team total above 60, which is nuts. On paper that screams load up on Baylor, but the problem is Kansas is absolutely terrible and the spread on this one is 45 points. It’s very likely the Baylor starters hit the bench very early in the third quarter, so volume does become a concern. For NFL guys who are reading this, it’s similar to how Julio Jones put up a dud despite his team scoring a billion points last weekend. Some times teams are just too bad and things become wacky – which is a possibility here.

Baylor has been blowing everyone out all year long, and their QB Seth Russell has only had to attempt 39 total passes in his last two games combined. Luckily for us, he’s a guy who doesn’t need huge volume in the passing game as he’s still managed 10 passing TDs in those two games, and also added two rushing TDs. He has elite GPP upside, as Baylor will be able to do whatever they want. I don’t think he’s a must play for cash games as his lack of playing time could lead others to have similar production, but I do think he has the highest upside on this slate and is an elite tournament option.

Baylor has an elite WR in Corey Coleman and two very good WR in Jay Lee and KD Cannon. The problem is that there’s probably not going to be enough volume or playing time for all three of them to eat. I’m not as worried about Coleman as he’s put up 10 TDs in his last three games, which have been blowouts, and is the first read. There is absolutely no one on KU that can stop him, and he should be able to get his. Given the spread I don’t think he’s a must for cash games, but he’s a guy I’d at least want some GPP exposure too. Lee and Cannon are a bit of a different story as Lee has only recorded five total catches the past two weeks, and Cannon only four. They both have the ability to break a long TD, but given the lack of volume, they’re in GPP-only territory for me.

Shock Linwood busted out for a huge game last weekend as he ran for 221 yard s and two TDs. The Baylor ground game should see plenty of success again as Kansas is allowing a ridiculous 278 rushing YPG and 5.7 YPC. He’s not cheap so I prefer some of the volume safety with other RBs in his price range for cash games, but certainly won’t argue with him as a GPP play. The guys I’m watching here are Devin Chafin and Johnny Jefferson as given the likelihood of the extreme blowout, the Baylor backup RBs become very interesting. Chafin has missed the last two weeks and is listed as questionable. If he sits then Jefferson will serve as Linwood’s primary backup, and then should see the majority of the work in the third quarter before giving way to Terrance Williams. A few weeks ago, Linwood, Jeffferson, and Williams each ran for 100+ against Lamar so the Baylor backup RBs do offer some upside. If Chafin is declared out then Jefferson is a guy I’ll get some exposure too.

Elite Options – Corey Coleman, Seth Russell

Secondary Options – Jay Lee/K. D. Cannon, Shock Linwood, Johnny Jefferson (if Chafin out)

Kansas

This game has a total of 78, but KU is only predicted to score around 16 of those points, so this is a situation to mostly avoid. The smart play here is to just avoid Kansas entirely as they’re more than likely to disappoint. If you want an extreme punt on a two QB site like DK or FA, Ryan Willis will draw the start and is basically bare minimum. He’s starting due to injuries, so there’s not much risk of him being pulled, opening up the possibility of garbage time here. I’d expect to see Baylor’s backup defense for the majority of the second half so maybe he’s able to cobble together enough garbage time stats to pay off his minimum price tag. He’s a true freshman making his first start against a top-five team so it’s definitely extremely risky, but you would be able to load up at RB and WR. The more likely scenario is that he scores single digit fantasy points, but if he can get 200 yards and two TDs he’s fine for his salary. Kansas’ top WR has been Tre’ Parmalee but again this is a situation that we don’t want very much exposure too.

Ke’aun Kinner has had his moments for the Jayhawks this season and has topped 20 DK points three times. His price is down to $4,200 so he’s certainly cheap but I don’t love the matchup here. Baylor shut down the Tech running game last weekend and is allowing only 3.3 YPC on the season. Kansas is also likely to be playing from way behind so it will be tough for him to get 20 carries.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Ryan Willis (GPP punt)

Massachusetts Minutemen at Bowling Green Falcons – O/U 78

UMASS

This game has been included on both FD and DK, and is a great game to target as it has a Vegas total of 79. UMASS is a pass-heavy team and are two-TD underdogs, so I’d expect them to air it out here as they try to keep up with the high-octane Bowling Green offense. The good news for UMASS, and us, is that Bowling Green is 111th in passing yards allowed so the UMASS passing game makes for a great target.

Blake Frohnapfel has attempted at least 40 pass attempts in each of his past three games, and has produced two solid fantasy outings in two of those three as he was shut down by a superior Notre Dame team. I’d expect a minimum of 40 pass attempts in this one, and I think he’s in line for a 300-yard passing day with multiple TDs. At sub-$7,000 on FD, I think he’s in play in all formats as he allows you to fit a stud WR or RB. In this matchup last year, he threw for 589 yards and five TDs.

His top target, Tajae Sharpe is also one of my top targets on the day. He has racked up double digit receptions in three of his last four games, and according to the player stats page leads the nations in targets (66). I think both Corey Coleman and Roger Lewis have more upside, but in terms of just pure cash game safety it doesn’t get much better Sharpe. He also comes at a steep discount compared to those two on FD and he brings extra upside this weekend due to Bowling Green’s fast pace and porous pass defense. He lit this defense up last year with 13 receptions for 179 yards and two TDs.

Marken Michel has been Frohnapfel’s second favorite target and is coming off of a monster game against FIU. If you can’t fit Sharpe, he’s a cheaper option to get exposure to the UMASS passing game. The other guy to know in this passing attack is Rodney Mills. He’s missed the last two games with injury so it’s a situation we’ll have to monitor. He’s one of the better TE options on the slate on FD, and he’s bare minimum on DK. Frohnapfel has been known to use his TE frequently, and Mills does have a 100-yard receiving game under his belt this season.

Elite Options: Blake Frohnapfel, Tajae Sharpe, Rodney Mills (check his health)

Secondary Options: Marken Michel

Bowling Green

Bowling Green has a team total of 46 points so they’re one of the better teams to target. UMASS has struggled defensively this year, especially against the run as they’ve allowed 216 rushing YPG and 5.6 YPC. Bowling Green is one of the elite offenses in the country and features one of the nation’s best passing attacks. Matt Johnson has thrown for at least 400 yards in four of his five games and has topped 50 passing attempts twice. He has an elite set of WRs to throw to, and he’s a great bet to surpass 400 passing yards here as well.

Last year in this matchup, Bowling Green had three receivers top 100 yards as Roger Lewis had nine receptions for 148 yards and a TD, Ryan Burbrink had 11 receptions for 132 yards and a TD and Ronnie Moore 9 receptions for 109 yards and a TD. Lewis is their top wideout and has tournament-winning upside. He’s produced 200+ receiving yards in three of his five games this season, and is a guy that you always want at least some GPP exposure too. He’s a guy who can be boom or bust as Bowling Green has other WRs to spread it around too, but he’s their lead dog and top-three WR option on the slate. After him, there are three guys that Johnson will spread it around to: Burbrink, Moore and Gehrig Dieter. One of them likely puts up a solid outing here, but it’s always tough to nail down which one as they alternate big games.

The forgotten man in the Bowling Green attack and a guy who could go low owned is Travis Greene. He started off the year in a time share, but he’s gradually working himself into a larger role and had 17 carries last game, while Fred Coppet only had 10. He’s also seen some decent work in the passing game, and as mentioned above UMASS has been dreadful stopping the run. I think he’s better served as a GPP play due to some uncertainty around his volume, but I really like his upside for tournaments as he has multi-TD upside given Bowling Green’s team total. He’s a guy I’ll have some exposure to him as he’s at an affordable price point.

Elite Options- Matt Johnson, Roger Lewis, Travis Greene

Secondary Options- Gehrig Dieter, Ronnie Moore, Ryan Burbrink

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Clemson Tigers – O/U 54

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech enters this game on a three game losing streak and this is a tough spot for them to break that losing streak. They’re a triple option offense that can be tough to nail down outside of their QB, Justin Thomas, and their B-back, Patrick Skov. Outside of Thomas and Skov, their volume is very tough to predict and I’d stay away. Overall I don’t really like this matchup as Clemson is a top 20 ranked run defense, and outside maybe of a Thomas share in a GPP, I’ll probably fade the Yellow Jackets this weekend.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Thomas, Patrick Skov

Clemson

I like the Clemson offense more than I do Georgia Tech as they are more predictable and have a team total just above 30. They are led by their QB, Deshaun Watson, who hasn’t had that huge game yet this season – but I think this is a nice spot for it to happen. He’s had two blowout games and last weekend he was in a monsoon so that’s three of his four games where he was in a tough spot. Georgia Tech has struggled defensively this year and a dual threat QB in Marquise Williams had a big day against them last weekend. To me this sets up as a spot where Watson finally busts out at an affordable price point on a sites like DK and FA.

Georgia Tech has really struggled against the run allowing 5.2 YPC so I’m liking both Watson and the Clemson RB Wayne Gallman to have solid days on the ground here. Gallman often goes overlooked but he’s affordable around the industry, and has at least 22 carries in each of the past two games. At WR, Clemson has struggled to replace Mike Williams so I’m not messing around with anyone outside of Artavis Scott, who I think is due for a breakout game. He has TDs in three of his four games and is Watson’s go to option.

Elite Options – Deshaun Watson, Artavis Scott

Secondary Options – Wayne Gallman

Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers – O/U 48

Wisconsin

This game is expected to be close but it also checks in with a total of just 48 points so there’s not a lot I’m really liking here. Nebraska has really struggled against the pass as they are next to last in passing yards allowed per game, but have been very good against the run as they are top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game. It still remains to be seen how good their run defense is as they really haven’t a good running team yet. The problem is that with Corey Clement hurt, Wisconsin is splitting carries between Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal so even if you think the Nebraska run defense is overrated, it’s tough to nail down which one to target.

I’m never a fan of the Wisconsin pass game so it’s tough to attack Nebraska’s porous pass defense here. On FD, where you have to roster a TE, Troy Fumagalli is expected to draw the start as their starting TE, Austin Traylor is injured. Wisconsin utilizes their TE effectively in the red zone so he could grab a receiving TD. Wisconsin’s top WR Alex Erickson is questionable for this one due to a concussion and if he sits you’ll probably see a guy like Robert Wheelwright step into his place.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Troy Fumagalli

Nebraska

Wisconsin is typically a team I avoid targeting as they play ball control offense and then are solid defensively. They’re a top 20 rush defense and a top 30 pass defense on the season, and this just isn’t a spot where I’m looking to get exposure to the Nebraska offense. Their running game has been non-existent of late so Terrell Newby is off the table, and they’ve leaned more on the passing game this season. Tommy Armstrong has had his moments this year, but I’ll wait for a better spot to deploy him – although he is very cheap on DK. He’s coming off of a clunker against Illinois so overall I think it’s best to avoid him. His top target this year has been Jordan Westerkamp, but they did get De’Mornay Pierson-El back from injury, so it will be interesting to watch the targets going forward. Pierson-El is minimum price on DK, and there is talk of Nebraska getting him more involved offensively, but this just really isn’t the matchup where I want to jump on board.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers – O/U 46

Minnesota

If there’s a theme of the week, and this is really the case a lot of weeks; fade the Big 10. Before I get hate from the Big 10 fans, it’s not that I think the conference sucks, but it’s just not a fantasy-friendly conference. The league as a whole plays at a very slow tempo, likes to run the ball, and then plays solid defense, which leads to lots of low-scoring games. This is another one of those games, and there’s not a whole lot to love here. If I’m picking a side here, I’d definitely side with Minnesota though as I think Purdue can be taken advantage of defensively, as they are 83rd in passing defense and 92nd in rushing yards allowed per game. The problem is that Minnesota is not very explosive offensively.

The Minnesota pass game has really struggled this year as Mitch Leidner is a better runner than he is a passer. It sounds like he’s a little beat up, and he was pulled last game against a really good Northwestern defense. He’s expected to remain the starter and occasionally offers some upside with his feet, but he’s strictly a GPP punt on a two-QB site. His favorite target has been K.J. Maye, but that’s not saying much as this is a run first offense.

The guy I’d be most interested in here is Rodney Smith, but I’m a little concerned about his workload last game. He was seeing a really solid workload in Weeks 2 through 4, but only had 11 carries last weekend as he split carries with Shannon Brooks. That could be largely the result of a lock down Northwestern defense but it’s still concerning. If I knew he’d get the workload that he did earlier this season then I’d like this spot for him, but given the uncertainty he’s a GPP only option at best.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Rodney Smith, Mitch Leidner (QB punt on two-QB sites), K. J. Maye

Purdue

Minnesota leaves a lot to be desired offensively but they’re a rock solid defensive unit so I’d just fade Purdue here. I don’t trust their young QB, David Blough against a solid defense so that takes their passing game off the table. The one interesting note from last game was that Markell Jones had 22 carries compared to DJ Knox only getting two carries, so maybe the time share is over. That’s something I’ll keep an eye for down the road though as Minnesota is allowing under 4.0 YPC so there’s other value backs that I prefer

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Markell Jones

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