CFB Grind Down Week 6: Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-11 17:01:34

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

For this article I will refer to the pricing of FanDuel (“FD”), DraftKings (“DK”), and Fantasy Aces (“FA”)

Check out varncass’ expert breakdowns of the games from the late slate here.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Iowa Hawkeyes – O/U 44

Illinois

Illinois checks in with one of the lower team totals on the day at just under 17 points, and will likely be without one of their top weapons in Josh Ferguson. Illinois has been disappointing offensively, so this team is a stay-away for me as there just isn’t much upside. If I was taking someone it would be Geronimo Allison as he’s seen a bunch of targets that have started to translate into solid production recently, but that came in two solid matchups, so I’ll be fading the Illini here.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Iowa

I typically avoid the Iowa offense as there’s just not a lot to get excited about but they’re getting a solid matchup with Illinois and have a team total of around 28 points. The guy I’m most interested in is Jordan Canzeri as he’s cheap around the industry. LeShun Daniels surprisingly beat him out to start the year, but Daniels hurt his ankle and hasn’t looked the same since he returned. Canzeri has taken full advantage as he’s run for at least 100 yards in three of his last four games. He’s a solid receiver out of the backfield and he has at least 19 touches in four straight games. Illinois has been solid against the run, but I’m not buying it yet as they haven’t faced any run-heavy teams to date. UNC is the best running team they’ve faced, and UNC steamrolled them for 250 rushing yards, so Canzeri is a guy that I think is targetable in all formats.

For the most part, I’d just stick to Canzeri here and call it day as the Iowa passing game is nothing to write home about. They typically throw it 25 times or less, so there’s just not a ton of upside. However, if you’re looking to get weird in a low-dollar tournament, the Iowa QB, C.J. Beathard, and his favorite target, Matt Vandeberg, have been solid at times. I don’t think Beathard is very good, so he’s a guy you have to pick your spots with, as a good defense like Wisconsin ate him up last weekend. However, in their other four easier games he produced at least 19 DK points in each, and does offer some rushing upside. Given this easier matchup with Illinois, he has the ability to surprise with a solid game at what will be low ownership. If you’re running multiple lineups I don’t hate him as a QB2 in a large-field GPP on DK, but I certainly wouldn’t invest heavy in him. If you’re going the Beathard route, you might as well grab a cheap handcuff with his top target, Vandeberg. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside, but he has recorded at least six receptions in all but one of his games, and has two TDs on the year.

Elite Options – Jordan Canzeri

Secondary Options – Matt Vandeberg, C. J. Beathard

Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State Buckeyes – O/U 54

Maryland

Maryland is an easy team to fade as it sounds like their head coach will be fired after this one, and they’ve totaled six points combined in their last two games. Given their matchup with the Ohio State defense, their team total of 10 might be generous, and this is a team to just avoid.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Ohio State

The Buckeyes were able to escape last weekend against Indiana as Ezekiel Elliott saved the day, but overall, this offense has continued to disappoint. I was on Cardale Jones a little bit last weekend as he had a quality matchup with Indiana, and he failed to produce again. Now there are rumors that J.T. Barrett could start to see time in red zone packages. If that’s the case then that really hinders whatever upside Jones had left. The matchup is great, but given the way he’s playing, as well Barrett potentially coming back into the picture, I don’t think Cardale is playable other than a large-field GPP dart-throw.

Elliott busted loosed with a monster game last weekend, and draws another prime matchup against a Maryland team allowing 236 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. He’s one of the elite options on the board at RB, and the only concern is whether he gets a full workload as Ohio State are 33-point favorites. Outside of Elliott, the only guy really on my radar is Michael Thomas on DK and FA, where he is really cheap. Maryland has been victimized by the big play in the passing game, and Thomas presents some big-play ability. He’s scored a TD in four of his five games this year, and this sets up as a nice spot to make that five of six games. Braxton Miller is a big name, but outside of the season opener against Virginia Tech, he’s really struggled to get going. He’ll need to put together another quality outing to get back on my radar.

Elite Options – Ezekiel Elliott

Secondary Options – Michael Thomas, Cardale Jones

Indiana Hoosiers at Penn State Nittany Lions – O/U 54.5

Indiana

I don’t love this spot for Indiana as they’re fresh off a near home upset of top-ranked Ohio State that likely saw them extend a lot of energy. Now they must travel on the road to face a physical, but plodding Penn State team, so I worry about a letdown. Penn State hasn’t faced a great schedule but they are top 20 against both the run and the pass, so I’m not heavily targeting any Hoosier here.

The one situation to monitor is the status of Jordan Howard. He dressed for practice on Wednesday but his status is still up in the air. It sounds like Howard will play but be sure to double check closer to kick off. His backup, Devine Redding, saw 30 carries in relief of Howard last weekend, and gets plenty of work around the goal line. If Howard is ruled out, he’s a potential source of value but there are others in his price range that I prefer. If Howard does play, he is very cheap on FD and DK so he’s worth a look despite the tough matchup.

Elite Options: None

Secondary Options: Jordan Howard/Devine Redding

Penn State

For me, this one really boils down to the status of Penn State freshman RB, Saquon Barkley, and it’s one that is going to take some close monitoring. FD and DK both have him listed as out and I’ve seen him downgraded to doubtful in some spots. However, I’ve also read that he took some reps in practice on Wednesday and PSU coach James Franklin said he looked “awesome”. This is a situation that we may have to monitor until warmups but luckily this game kicks at 11 so hopefully word trickles out prior to lock. If he’s cleared to play, I love his price and his matchup. He’s been phenomenal this year as he is averaging almost 9 YPC. He was set to pass up Akeel Lynch as the primary back, and now Akeel Lynch is out as well. Indiana was gashed by Ezekiel Elliott last week and I think Barkley easily pays off his salary IF he plays. If Barkley sits, Nick Scott would likely draw the start but it’s likely to be more of a RBBC as Scott only saw 12 carries last weekend.

Indiana is 124th in the country in passing yards allowed per game which leads us to the ever-disappointing Christian Hackenberg. He’s produced more than 11 fantasy points only one time this season, and despite Indiana’s porous secondary, he’s really hard to roster. If Barkley is out, theoretically I’d expect Hackenberg to get a usage bump, although that didn’t happen last weekend. If you’re just trying to load up at WR or RB on DK or FA, I don’t hate him as a low-dollar option, but I’d be prepared to be disappointed. I’d be more inclined to get exposure to the PSU game via Chris Godwin. He’s emerged as Hackenberg’s favorite target with at least four receptions in each game and is cheap around the industry. Given Indiana’s poor secondary, he’s in play as a cheap WR3. If you need a punt option at TE on FD or FA, Mike Gesicki did get into the end zone last weekend.

UPDATE – Saquon Barkley is not dressed so get him out if you had him in. Nick Scott should see the biggest boost

Elite Options – Saquon Barkley (if he plays)

Secondary Options – Chris Godwin, Mike Gesicki (FD), Christian Hackenberg (DK & FA)

South Carolina Gamecocks at LSU Tigers – O/U 50

South Carolina

Due to the scary flooding in South Carolina, this game has been moved to Baton Rouge which is always a tough place to play. There’s not a whole lot to like with this South Carolina offense as they’re back to starting former walk-on, Perry Orth, who is not a good QB, and have been unable to get their ground game going. Due to their issues at QB, they have been unable to get their star WR, Pharoh Cooper going. The Gamecocks will likely try to find creative ways to get him the ball via the Wildcat or quick screen plays, but Orth getting the start at QB really kills his upside, even at his reduced price point. This LSU defense hasn’t been great in their past two games, but there’s so many quality WR options that taking a risk on Cooper seems unnecessary.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

LSU

The LSU offense is a one man show, but luckily for the Tigers that one man show is really really good. Leonard Fournette has been simply other-worldly as he has 200+ rushing yards in three of his four games, as well as three rushing TDs in three of four games. Given all the issues that South Carolina is facing, one might expect a blowout here, but LSU hasn’t been able to put away Syracuse or Eastern Michigan, so that’s not really a concern of mine. Due to poor QB play, Fournette has 26 carries in each of those cupcake matchups, so he should be in line for 25+ carries again here. That volume should translate into another huge outing as South Carolina is allowing 4.9 YPC on the season. He’s tougher to fit on DK, but on FD you can make it work as I’m expecting him to hit the 200 yard mark again.

I got cute a few weeks ago with LSU big-play WR Travin Dural, and quickly learned the errors of my way. Their passing game is a nightmare, so just stick to Fournette, who is the top RB on this slate.

Elite Options – Leonard Fournette

Secondary Options – None

Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns – O/U 61

Oklahoma

It’s Red River Rivalry week in Dallas this weekend, but this one could be very one sided as the Horns are in disarray. Meanwhile, the Sooners are rolling, and the move to the Air Raid has really benefited Baker Mayfield. He’s already produced 17 total TDs in only four games played, and brings some sneaky running ability to the table. This Texas secondary is very young as they’re playing some true freshman, and they were picked apart last weekend by Trevone Boykin. OU has a team total approaching 40 here so Mayfield looks poised for another big day. He’s a top five option at QB in this slate, and comes at a solid discount on DK.

Mayfield’s top targets at WR are Sterling Shephard, Dede Westbrook, and Duron Neal. He’s spread the ball around some, which isn’t great for our purposes, but Shephard remains his top option. Shephard is coming off of a quiet week, but that has resulted in a price drop on DK so he’s a solid option. He operates a good deal out of the slot and Texas was destroyed by TCU slot WR, Kevontae Turpin, last weekend. Westbrook has been trending upwards and is coming off of his first 100 yard receiving game. I don’t like him for cash games, but don’t mind taking a shot with him as a cheap WR3 in tournaments.

On sites where you need a TE, Mark Andrews is my favorite option on the slate. He can really run for a TE as he’s averaging 20 YPC and is a big target down the seam. He doesn’t see a ton of volume, but he has three TDs in his past two games, and I like his odds to break loose against Texas’ young secondary.

The one guy who continues to struggle in the new offense is Samaje Perine. His volume is down from last year, and he’s only topped 100 rushing yards one time this season. To me, he’s a back who is better suited to run out of the i-formation as opposed to the spread, so it’s been a tough transition for him. He has the ability to be a force in the red zone as he’s a very powerful runner, so a multi-TD game is probably coming soon. Based on that he’s GPP playable, but not in cash games for me. Another reason for Perine’s struggles has been the emergence of Joe Mixon, who was suspended all of last year. He’s a big-play threat and OU will try to get him some targets out of the backfield so I prefer him on a PPR site like DK. I prefer to target more volume at RB so he’d strictly be a large field GPP play.

Elite Options – Baker Mayfield, Sterling Shephard, Mark Andrews

Secondary Options – Joe Mixon, Dede Westbrook

Texas

On paper this looks really bad for Texas as they were embarrassed last weekend, seem to be having disagreements within the locker room, and now face a quality OU team. However, this is a big rivalry game, so I’m guessing we see a better effort out of them than we saw last weekend – for Charlie Strong’s sake that better be the case.

This is a Texas offense that lacks talent so the only guy worth a brief look is Jerrod Heard. After his monster game against Cal, he’s really come back to earth and has been terrible the past two weeks. Teams are really game planning for him in the run game, and are forcing him to beat them through the air – which he’s been unable to do. Further making things worse for him is Texas lacks talent at WR for him to throw to. However, his struggles have resulted in a very cheap price point, and as we saw in his first two games, he does possess solid running upside. He’s strictly a boom or bust GPP option as his floor is very low, but I don’t hate taking a shot in a GPP on a two-QB site.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jerrod Heard

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