CFB Grind Down Week 6: Early Slate - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-10 12:22:29

Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – O/U 54

Navy

Navy is another triple option team that can be tough to nail down and they draw a tough matchup with the Irish. Navy’s QB Keenan Reynolds can be really fun to roster for the Midshipmen as he gets a ton of work in the running game and can see 25+ carries a game as well as a ton of goal line work. He did score three rushing TDs against the Irish two years ago, but overall Notre Dame has really looked to take him away in the run game as he has 40 carries for only 100 yards in their last two meetings. Like most triple option teams, they really spread the carries around outside of Reynolds, but Chris Swain has been their top option outside of Reynolds.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Keenan Reynolds

Notre Dame

The big question for Notre Dame will be how they respond to their first loss of the season, as Navy has given them all they can handle the past few years. If they come out lethargic they’ll be in a dog fight, but overall the talent edge should be too big for the Irish. Deshone Kizer is coming off of a huge fantasy game against Clemson, but I think that was more due to game flow as they were playing from behind. He’s an ok option as he does offer some running upside and is throwing to one of the best WR in the country in Will Fuller. I certainly wouldn’t pay his price on FD, but on DK he is only $6,200 so that’s not a terrible price for a cheap QB2. Overall, I’d primarily just stick to Fuller and C. J. Prosise here.

Prosise was shut down by a stout Clemson front seven, but was still able to contribute in the passing game to salvage his day. Prior to that game, he had recorded three straight games of 150+ rushing yards and this looks like a good game for him to get back on track. If you can’t get all the way up to the guys like Fournette and Elliot, then Prosise makes for a solid cheaper target to anchor your RBs and allows for a more balanced lineup. Fuller didn’t have a receiving TD last week for the first time all season, but he was playing in terrible weather so I expect for him to start racking up TDs again this week. He’s one of the best in the country and Navy just doesn’t have anyone that can matchup with him.

Elite Options – Will Fuller, C. J. Prosise

Secondary Options – Deshone Kizer

Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan Wolverines – O/U 35

Northwestern

There are some ugly looking Big 10 games on this slate, but this one takes the cake as it carries a total of just 35 points – which is low even by NFL standards. That screams easy fade on both sides of the ball as these are two plodding offenses, but two very good defenses. I honestly wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Baylor put up more points in the first quarter than both of these teams combined put up in a full game.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Michigan

To repeat the total in this one is 35 points and both defenses are rock solid. I’d avoid Michigan as well with the sole exception being Jake Butt, who is in play on sites that require a TE.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jake Butt (FD and FA)

Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders – O/U 74

Iowa State

I think this one has some fantasy potential on both sides. The Cyclones have a solid team total of 31 points so they’re a team worth targeting. Mike Warren has been the breakout performer for the Cyclones recently as he’s taken over as the lead RB. He’s coming off of a monster game against KU so I expect him to be popular here as well. Texas Tech jumping out to a quick lead worries me a little here, but the Texas Tech defense has been so bad that Iowa State could easily keep up with them here. They’re allowing 5.7 YPC on the season which is tied for 116th in the country. There are quite a few guys I like in the value range at RB, so I’ll rotate Warren in there with guys like Saquon Barkley (if he’s healthy), Travis Greene, and Jordan Canzeri.

I think Sam Richardson will go very low owned and I think he makes for a solid tournament option. I don’t trust him enough for cash games, but he occasionally puts up that big game and he does offer some running upside. Given Tech’s potent offense but porous defense, this potentially sets up as one of his big games. He has a solid group of WR to throw too, and in this matchup last year he threw for 300 yards and two TDs last year, while also adding 50 rushing yards. He can spread it around so you don’t have to handcuff him with a WR, but Allen Lazard has been his top target and is their most talented wideout. He’s a former top 100 national recruit and a big target at 6’5.

Elite Options – Mike Warren

Secondary Options – Sam Richardson, Allen Lazard

Texas Tech

Texas Tech finally gets a break as they’ve had to face Baylor and TCU in back to back weeks. They have a high team total of 43 points and Patrick Mahomes is once again an elite option at QB this weekend. Mahomes is around $1,000 cheaper than the top QBs this weekend, and he offers similar, if not more upside. What really sets him apart isn’t the fact that he’s in an Air Raid offense, but the usage in the red-zone running game that he’s getting. He’s going to throw it 40+ times a game, but he also has six rushing TDs on the season.

Figuring out who Mahomes will be throwing the ball to is the tougher part here. Jakeem Grant is their top option and should continue to see solid usage. Beyond Grant, things get really murky. Ian Sadler will be out through October, and Devin Lauderdale is listed as questionable. Both Tony Brown and Zack Austin emerged in their absence last weekend as both topped 100 receiving yards. Brown stepped in for Lauderdale so his usability is more tied to Lauderdale than Austin. My guess is one of those guys comes through with a solid game at a cheap price point, but it’s really a coin flip as to which one. If Lauderdale sits, I’ll give the slightest edge to Brown.

Deandre Washington can be very hit or miss at RB for Tech, and last week he was a miss as Baylor stuffed the run and then jumped out to a big lead on Tech. Iowa State has struggled against the run at times this year so I don’t mind him as a tournament option as he has certainly flashed upside this season. He ripped ISU in this matchup last year as he ran for 186 yards and a TD.

Elite Options – Patrick Mahomes, Jakeem Grant

Secondary Options – Deandre Washington, Tony Brown/Zach Austin (if Lauderdale is out)

Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers – O/U 55

Georgia

This is one is expected to be a very competitive game as Georgia is only a three point favorite as they head to Rocky Top. I’ve never been a fan of Greyson Lambert as a fantasy option and he’s a guy I’m unlikely to ever roster this season. The only option in the Georgia passing game that I ever consider is Malcolm Mitchell. It’s a run-heavy offense, but he is their top option when they do pass the ball. Overall, I’d just stick to the running game as they have two great backs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.

Tennessee has struggled to contain the run at times year and is 72nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Alex Collins battered them for 150 rushing yards and two TDs, and I think Chubb could be in line for similar production here. Like most weeks, Chubb is a top-five option at RB, and comes at a solid discount from Fournette. He has a very talented backup in Michel, but my problem with Michel is his lack of volume due to Chubb. Georgia does look to get him around ten touches per game, and he’s talented enough to turn that into solid production. However, there are other spots I’d prefer to target with more secure volume.

Elite Options – Nick Chubb

Secondary Options – Sony Michel, Malcolm Mitchell

Tennessee

This is a game where Tennessee really needs to pull off the upset as their season is bordering on getting away from them. They do have a very soft schedule down the stretch so if they can pull this one off, they could still have a solid season. However, they just kicked their leading WR, Pig Howard, off the team and this is a solid Georgia defense. Given the matchup, I’d lean towards the Vols being GPP-only plays, but we are getting some solid discounts on both their QB, Joshua Dobbs and their RB, Jalen Hurd in some spots. Hurd was kept out of the end zone last weekend, but gets a ton of work in the red-zone and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get back into the end zone this weekend. Dobbs is still developing as a passer and doesn’t have a go-to WR so he’s a guy that you’re rostering more for his legs than his passing ability. Overall I’m just kind of ambivalent towards Dobbs, and probably will have little to no exposure to him. On a site that requires a TE, Ethan Wolf is in play, but I’d prefer him more on FA where he is cheap, as opposed to FD where he is still $3,000.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joshua Dobbs, Jalen Hurd, Ethan Wolf

Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats – O/U 61

Oregon State

This game checks in with a solid total of 61 points as well as a spread under ten points. I’ve been impressed with Oregon State’s true freshman QB, Seth Collins so far this season. He’s a really athletic kid and offers solid upside in the running department. My main concern with him is that I’m leery of rostering freshman QBs on the road. He really struggled in his one road start this year, but that did come against a quality Michigan defense. He’s improved his passing each week and this Arizona defense can be exploited through the air as they are 90th in passing yards allowed per game. He’s a guy I don’t mind mixing in if you’re running multiple lineups on DK – but I wouldn’t go crazy. I was able to watch some of their last game against Stanford, and he really seemed to lock in on Jordan Villamin. Villamin is a really big target at 6’5 , and Collins seemed to be more comfortable looking his direction as opposed to the smaller Victor Bolden. Given Arizona’s struggles against the pass, Villamin presents some upside and is just $4,100 on DK.

There’s not much else to mention on Oregon State, but they do have a TE Ryan Nall who could be a factor as a goal line running back going forward. He’s not available on FD, but he is a cheap option at TE on FA, and had 5 carries for 29 yards and a TD against Stanford.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Seth Collins, Jordan Villamin, Ryan Nall (FA)

Arizona

Oregon State has been a solid pass defense so far this season, but they could be overrated in that department as they really haven’t faced a pass heavy team yet. However, they have struggled against the run as they’ve allowed 5.0 YPC and 218 YPC. It’s tough to pay Nick Wilson’s price tag on FA or FD, but on DK he’s just $6,400, which is a pretty elite discount from where he was earlier this season. He was stuffed by a quality Stanford run defense, but ran for at least 136 yards in each of his three previous games. Outside of Wilson there’s not a lot I’m looking at. Anu Solomon is expected to return from his concussion, and he’s just $7,100 on DK, if you’re not buying into Oregon State’s pass defense. Arizona has really spread it around at WR so I’ll avoid playing the guessing game there as Cayleb Jones hasn’t produced like he did last year.

Elite Options – Nick Wilson (DK)

Secondary Options – Anu Solomon (DK)

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