CFB Grind Down Week 7 - Early Slate - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-17 14:34:43

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Mississippi State Bulldogs – O/U 58

Louisiana Tech has been potent offensively this season as they have at least 27 points in each game this season and feature one of the nation’s better backs in Kenneth Dixon. This is a tough spot though as they head on the road to face a SEC team and have a team total of only 22 points. Jeff Driskel has been surprisingly good this year, but he struggled in his time against SEC opponents when he was Florida so I’ll be avoiding him here. Trent Taylor has been Driskel’s favorite target this year and he already has games with 12 and 13 receptions on the season. He’s not particularly cheap so he’s a GPP only option for me, but Louisiana Tech should be playing from behind so he should get plenty of opportunities against a Mississippi State secondary that is just average.Paul Turner is the other WR that gets some looks but if I’m going this route I’d prefer Taylor.

Dixon is a RB that I love to target whenever he appears on the slate as he is contributes in both the running game and the passing game. However, I’ll pass this week as he’s expensive and he missed last week’s game with an injury. Kansas State was able to control the Louisiana Tech running game and I’m not sold that they can open up holes for Dixon here.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Kenneth Dixon, Trent Taylor

Mississippi State

Mississippi State has taken a step back from last year’s breakout season. They lost a lot along their offensive line as well as their top RB, and it’s really affected them offensively. Dak Prescott has been good but not the same elite level fantasy producer that we saw last season. He was sick last week, but he’s expected to be fine for this week. However, if there’s a week for him to regain last year’s form this is the week, and I think we could see his best game of the year. This game is expected to be competitive as the spread is around two TDs, and Louisiana Tech is 96th in passing defense. Curiously he hasn’t been very effective on the ground, but he finally had a solid rushing game against Texas A&M so maybe that will get him going in the ground game.

Mississippi State has not been able to replace Josh Robinson from last year and they are RBBC so that is a situation to avoid. They have two solid WR in De’Runnya Wilson and Fred Ross who are worth a look given Louisiana Tech’s struggles against the pass. In terms of yardage, Ross is actually leading them in receiving this season, and I’d lean his way on DK where he is cheaper. On a site like FD, I’d prefer Wilson as they are similarly priced and Wilson is the bigger TD threat.

Elite Options – Dak Prescott

Secondary Options – De’Runnya Wilson, Fred Ross

Ole Miss Rebels at Memphis Tigers – O/U 64

Ole Miss

This is a nice spot for the Ole Miss offense as they are going on the road against a suspect defense and are only 10-point favorites. Memphis brings a quality offense to the table, which should mean the Ole Miss offense sees all four quarters. Memphis has been particularly bad against the pass as they are dead last in the nation allowing 356 passing YPG. That puts Chad Kelly squarely on my radar, especially on DK where he is just $7,400. He’s thrown for at least 320 yards in four of his six games, including their win over Alabama, and I’m expecting another 300 yard day against this porous secondary.

He has some solid targets at WR, with his top option being Laquon Treadwell. Treadwell is working his way back from a season ending injury last year and seems to be rounding into form as he’s topped 100 receiving yards in two of his last three weeks. On DK, he’s solid a mid-tier play at just $5,700. Quincy Adeboyejo has had his moments but three of his TDs came in one game against Fresno State so I’ll likely just stick to Treadwell here. Evan Engram was expected to be one of the top TE options this season but he doesn’t seem to have a great connection with Kelly and has missed some practice this week – so make sure he is good to go if you’re looking his way.

Jaylen Walton is expected to return after sitting out last week’s game. He’s been average at best this season, but this is a solid matchup and he’s cheap around the industry. I wouldn’t play him on FD, but he’s in play as a flex option on DK.

Elite Options – Chad Kelly, Laquon Treadwell

Secondary Options – Jaylen Walton, Evan Engram

Memphis

This is a similar spot to Louisiana Tech as Memphis is a quality offense, but they’re playing up in competition against a power five team. Not only is this an SEC team, but this is one of the elite defenses in the country so I’ll fade Memphis here. They are RBBC and will spread carries around so I’d avoid their RB in this matchup. Paxton Lynch has been very impressive at QB this year, and Memphis does have a team total of 27 points, which did surprise me. Overall, I just don’t like to mess with this Ole Miss defense so I’ll wait until Memphis gets back into conference play to target these guys.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Paxton Lynch

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at East Carolina Pirates – O/U 77

Tulsa

This is a quality game to target as it has a total of 77 points, which is second highest on the day. Tulsa has been a fun offense to target all year long, and this week should be no different. They lead the nation in plays per game which is what we love to see in DFS. Dane Evans is their QB, and while I don’t think he’s that great of a QB, he does play in a great system for fantasy production. He’s thrown for at least 320 yards in every game this season, but does have just 10 passing TDs on the year. He’s a solid option as Tulsa is expected to be trailing and he should be in line for another big day in terms of passing yards.

Unfortunately, Tulsa is down their top receiving option as they lost Keevan Lucas for the season. That leaves Keyarris Garrett and Joshua Atkinson as the top two options, and opens up some potential production from Justin Hobbs. Atkinson in particular has come on very strong with at least 100 receiving yards in four straight games, and on a site like DK I’d take the $1,500 discount on Atkinson from Garrett, but I’d go Garrett on FD where they are the same price. Hobbs isn’t available on FD, but he’s just $3,900 on DK. With Lucas out, he looks like he might be the guy to step up as the third WR as he operated out of the slot and had five receptions for 82 yards and a TD last week.

Zack Langer continues to be a force in Tulsa’s new offense as he’s seeing big volume as well big usage inside the red zone. He already has 10 TDs on the season and has at least 28 carries in three of his last four games. East Carolina has struggled against the run as they’re 85th in rushing yards allowed per game. He’s still very fairly priced on both FD and DK and makes for a nice mid-ranged play in this expected shoot out.

Elite Options – Zack Langer, Keyarris Garrett, Joshua Atkinson, Dane Evans

Secondary Options – Justin Hobbs

East Carolina

East Carolina is in a great spot against a Tulsa defense that is 110th against the pass and 122nd against the run. However, the problem is that from what I have seen they are expected to play both of their QBs, Blake Kemp or James Summers, which is really makes them both very risky options. However, if we get word that one will see the lion’s share of the snaps then they are clearly in play. Summers in particular is still minimum price on FD and has produced five rushing TDs in his past three games. I certainly wouldn’t go there in a cash game, but taking a shot on one GPP team could be worth it. The Summers/Kemp timeshare also affects ECU’s WRs as Kemp is a much better passer where Summers is much more a runner. If I knew Kemp would get most of the snaps then I’d be all over Isaiah Jones on both sites. He’s a target monster when Kemp is in the game and has big upside against this porous Tulsa secondary.

Chris Hairston is ECU’s lead RB and while four of his six rushing TDS did come in Week 1 against Towson, he has scored in each of his past two games. He’s hovering just above 5K on both sites, and given Tulsa’s weak run defense, could be in line for 80 yards and a TD here.

Elite Options – Isaiah Jones

Secondary Options – James Summers/Blake Kemp, Chris Hairston

Pittsburgh Panthers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – O/U 49

Pittsburgh

This is a FanDuel only game that checks in with a total under 50 and given some of the other high totaled games, this isn’t a spot where I want too much exposure. Pitt has continued to get very average play at QB, which really hurts the prospects for their star WR Tyler Boyd. Despite his drop in production, he’s still expensive on FD at $7,300 and that’s just not a price I can pay given his current situation.

This game sets up nicely for the Pitt ground game as Georgia Tech is allowing 5.1 YPC. However, Qadree Ollison lost a fumble on the goal line last week, which opened up playing time for Chris James. James responded with a solid game and they are both listed a top the depth chart with an “or”. You could take a flyer on one of them as the matchup is solid, but right now it’s uncertain as to who is going to get the majority of the carries.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Tyler Boyd, Chris James/Qadree Ollison

Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech is typically a tough team to predict as they’re a triple option team that can really spread the carries around. That is especially true right now as they are in the midst of a four game losing streak and could be changing things up. Their starting B Back Patrick Skov only had two carries last week, while true freshman Marcus Marshall received 11 carries. I haven’t seen any news declaring Marshall the starter, but it’s a situation to monitor as the B back position can be very productive.

Overall, this game is better to just fade as Pitt has been very strong against the run allowing only 2.6 YPC. Justin Thomas did have a solid day against Pitt last year so maybe he’s worth a GPP dart throw as he can have random big games.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Thomas, Marcus Marshall

Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami (FL) Hurricanes – O/U 52

Virginia Tech

The Hokies are another team that is in a state of flux as we’re going to have to wait to see if Brenden Motley or Michael Brewer draws the start at QB. Outside of one bad game against Pitt, Motley has been very good filling in for the injured Brewer, and is dirt cheap at $5,500 on DK. If Motley gets the start, he’s a nice option against a Miami team that has struggled against the run (95th) and the pass (95th). Brewer is cheap as well on DK, but I prefer the upside of the dual threat ability of Motley so I’m hoping it’s Motley drawing the start

Motley has shown a nice connection with Isaiah Ford, who is still cheap on DK and is coming off of a three TD game last weekend. If Brewer returns, I’d give a stronger look to Bucky Hodges on FD as he was expected to be one of the better TE options this season, but hasn’t been great with Motley under center.

Virginia Tech has been RBBC all year long but just named Travon McMillian as the starter for this weekend. He had a nice game last weekend but still only had 11 carries so I’d like to see signs that he is getting 18+ carries before I fully jump on board.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Brenden Motley/Michael Brewer, Isaiah Ford, Bucky Hodges, Travon McMillian

Miami

Brad Kaaya is coming off a huge game against FSU last weekend, but the Hokies have been great against the pass this year as they 11th in passing yards allowed per game. There may be some spots later this year to fire up Kaaya but this doesn’t profile as one of those spots. Rashawn Scott has continued to be their leading WR on the season and Stacy Coley had a big game last weekend. However, Coley also banged his hip up and this Virginia Tech secondary has been tough so they’re not high on my list.

Virginia Tech has been vulnerable against the run though as they’re 98th in rushing YPG are also allowing 5.2 YPC. Given those difficulties as well as the tight spread, this looks like a solid matchup for Joseph Yearby who has topped 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Joseph Yearby

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