CFB Grind Down Week 7 - Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-21 03:54:33

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

NOTE – I’ll be focusing on the games included on FanDuel (“FD”), DraftKings (“DK”), as well the early games that have been included in the slate on FantasyAces (“FA”).

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks – O/U 75

Texas Tech

We’re getting started with one of the best teams to target on the day as the high flying Texas Tech offense will face an overmatched Kansas team. Tech has a team total of 53 points, which is highest on the day, so they’re a team to get exposure to as the Jayhawks can’t stop the run (118th) or the pass (125th). Kansas is so bad that a blowout is always a concern, but the bad Texas Tech defense could easily cough up a few scores, and allows the Tech starters to stick around for three quarters.

The Tech offense all starts with Patrick Mahomes and he’s right there at the top of the list of QBs today. I’ll give Seth Russell the slight edge, but Mahomes is a guy I want exposure to. He’s topped 400 yards of total offense in each of his past three games, and has at least three TDs in each game this season. His top target is Jakeem Grant, who is coming off of a huge game last weekend, and is still too cheap on FD. However, outside of Grant, things get really murky and there’s no clear-cut second option. Zach Austin and Tony Brown had big days two weeks ago, then last week it was Jonathan Giles. They’re going to play a ton of WRs, and outside of Grant, it doesn’t look like they’re looking to scheme the ball into any one WR’s hands. Devin Lauderdale has missed the last two weeks with an injury so maybe he can reassert himself as the second option, but I’ve also seen some reports that Tony Brown will still see some playing time.

Their running game is more clear cut as DeAndre Washington is their top back, and Justin Stockton their number two, and I think both are in play. Washington can be a volatile option as he typically only sees around 12 to 14 carries in Tech’s pass-heavy attack, however, he also gets solid work in the pass game. He’s topped 20 FD points in three of his five games this season, and this KU defense is allowing 5.8 YPC, and apparently only has three DTs with any experience available for this game. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he had another day with 100 yards of total offense and two TDs. With Stockton being a backup, he’s a guy that I mostly prefer for GPPs, but even in close games, Tech looks to get him 7 to 10 touches a game, as he’s a big play waiting to happen. With Tech being 31-point favorites, he should see some carries in the second half, and with his speed combined with KU’s bad defense, I think he busts a long TD here. One thing that could lead to more running from Texas Tech than normal is that David Beaty and Kliff Kingsbury are friends and were on staff together at Texas A&M, so you could see Kliff run it a little more than normal if Tech gets up big.

Elite Options – Patrick Mahomes, Jakeem Grant, DeAndre Washington, Justin Stockton

Secondary Options – Devin Lauderdale

Kansas

Picking on the Tech defense has been very profitable this season, but Kansas is so bad that there really isn’t anyone to hang our hats on. Ryan Willis will get another start for the Jayhawks this week, and he’s a true freshman who was fourth on the depth chart at the start of the year. He’s basically minimum price around the industry, so you don’t need a whole lot of production from him if you want a punt at QB, but there’s a solid chance that he puts up single-digit fantasy points again.

At the skill positions, Tre Parmalee, their leading WR, missed last week’s game with a concussion and their leading RB, Ke’aun Kinner, only had two carries because he was banged up. I haven’t seen any final confirmation on Parmalee outside of KU is hopeful that he can return this week, and I haven’t seen an update on Kinner. Given the bad KU offense they’d be risky options even if they were fully healthy, so they’re very risky options given their health.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Ryan Willis

West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears – O/U 78

West Virginia

I think you could just create a DFS roster with only Big 12 players for the rest of the year and still be profitable, as the conference is just loaded with high-powered offenses and weak defenses. This game checks in with the highest total on the day at 78 points, with West Virginia projected to score around 28 points.

I personally don’t think Skyler Howard is that great of a QB, and he’s struggled as the competition has increased in recent weeks. However, this game does set up for him to be throwing a ton as West Virginia should be playing catch up and Baylor is 86th in passing yards allowed per game. My guess is that WVU tries to run the ball more in the first half and control the clock, which is what they did last year as they had 50 rush attempts to 35 pass attempts. However, they were leading last year, whereas they should be trailing this year and forced to the air eventually. Overall Howard is a guy I have in the GPP or QB2 territory.

His top targets at WR are Shelton Gibson and Jovon Durante with Gibson gradually emerging as his preferred option. Gibson has at least 80 receiving yards in four of his five games, and has five TDs on the year and makes for a solid target, especially on DK at just $4,700. Durante has been much more volatile so he’s a cheap GPP only play if you need salary relief.

I’m expecting WVU to come out and try to establish the run as they certainly don’t want to get into a shootout with Baylor. Wendell Smallwood and Rushel Shell basically split carries as each had 19 last week, but Smallwood has been more productive and gets more work in the passing game so he’s my preference. Smallwood has at least 19 carries and 100 yards in each of the past three weeks, and if (when) Baylor jumps out then he’s the back more likely to be in there as he’s been a factor in the passing game all year long. One thing to keep in mind though is that despite the high total here, this isn’t a great matchup for the WVU run game – Baylor has been very stingy against the run as they’re allowing under 3.0 YPC on the season.

UPDATE – It appears that Smallwood has an ankle injury, but he’s expected to play throughout, so just something to keep in mind if you’re going that route.

Elite Options – Shelton Gibson

Secondary Options – Skyler Howard, Wendell Smallwood, Jovon Durante

Baylor

In terms of team totals, Baylor is second behind only Texas Tech, and has a team total of almost 50 points. Even more exciting is that we might actually see the Baylor starters play the fourth quarter for a change. Seth Russell has averaged 36 FD and 38 DK points despite the fact his playing time has been limited due to blowouts, and is once again the top option at QB on the day. West Virginia lost their All American safety Karl Joseph for the season, which is a major hit to their secondary. Outside of Oklahoma they haven’t faced a big time passing attack, and Baker Mayfield threw for 320 yards and three TDs against them. Russell can also get it done with his legs as he has also has four rushing TDs on the season and has arguably the nation’s top set of WRs to throw to.

That WR corp consists of Corey Coleman, Jay Lee and KD Cannon. Coleman continues to be ridiculously good as he already has 13 receiving TDs on the season and has 100 receiving yards in every game this season. He’s the top option at WR on this slate and a guy you want some exposure to, as he has GPP winning upside. Lee and Cannon have seen their prices drop on DK and FA as they’re the guys that have been hurt most by the string of Baylor blowouts. Coleman is the top option and gets to eat first, so their opportunities have been limited due to playing time and Baylor running the ball in blowouts. With this game expected to be at least somewhat competitive, I think we see one of them emerge with a solid day. I’ll give the slight edge to Lee, but it’s tough to nail down which one to target.

Due to their blowouts, Baylor hasn’t had to ride Shock Linwood too hard, but in their closest game this season against Texas Tech he did log 20 carries as he piled up 200 rushing yards. Based on that I’d expect to see more Linwood and less Johnny Jefferson and Terrence Williams in this one. The only drawback to Linwood is that Devin Chafin is expected to be ready to go for this one. He’s a guy that Baylor frequently turned to in the red zone last year and was a TD vulture. With this being his first game back from a hamstring injury it will be interesting to see whether Baylor eases him back into action.

Elite Options – Seth Russell, Corey Coleman

Secondary Options – Shock Linwood, Jay Lee, KD Cannon

Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles – O/U 46

Louisville

Louisville checks in with a team total of just 19.5 points, and is facing a Florida State defense that has plenty of talent but hasn’t really been tested. Their first four opponents were awful offensively, and last week they faced their first real offense in Miami. They locked up the Miami run game but were shredded through the air for 400 passing yards. The problem is that Louisville does most of their damage through the ground as their dynamic freshman QB, Lamar Jackson, is still very limited in the passing game. He has run for over 100 yards in three games this season, including his last two, but I’m not sure this is a matchup that suites him very well. He’d be a deep GPP play only for me at best.

Outside of Jackson, there’s just not much else to dig into with this Louisville team. Brandon Radcliff has completely disappeared this season, and Jackson’s erratic passing has limited the production of their WRs.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Lamar Jackson

Florida State

With the graduation of Jameis Winston, this FSU offense has been very run-heavy, as they have one of the nation’s elite backs. Leonard Fournette is stealing the spotlight, but when Dalvin Cook hasn’t been injured he’s been putting up monster numbers. He had to leave the Boston College and Wake Forest games with injuries, but in his other three complete games he’s run for 156, 266 and 222 yards along with seven TDs. Louisville has been solid against the run as they’re 46th in the country, and have faced some quality running games so this is a fairly tough matchup. I probably wouldn’t pay Cook’s high price tag on DK in cash games, but he’s definitely in play for GPPs, and pretty easy to fit in on FD.

FSU has turned Everett Golson into a game manager and the result has been his turnovers have dramatically decreased from last season. However, that’s also resulted in very average fantasy output as well so there just hasn’t been much upside in the entire FSU passing game. They have been turning him loose a little more each week, but I’ll wait until a softer matchup before rolling the dice on any piece of the FSU passing game.

Elite Options – Dalvin Cook

Secondary Options – None

Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers – O/U 48

Purdue

Purdue has a team total of just 12 points and their offense has ground to a halt recently. Wisconsin is a quality defensive unit, and given their team total, this offense is a complete fade.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Wisconsin

The big issue to watch here is the status of Taiwan Deal who left last week’s game with an injury. He’s listed as questionable for this one and Wisconsin is already without their starting RB, Corey Clement. If Deal sits, that would leave Dare Ogunbowale to shoulder the load, and I would want as much exposure to him as possible if that scenario unfolds. Purdue is 109th in rushing yards allowed per game as they’re allowing 5.3 YPC, so the matchup is ideal for a breakout game from Dare if he gets the lion’s share of the carries.

Outside of Dare, I typically don’t want very much exposure to the Wisconsin passing attack as they’re a run first team. Alex Erickson is their leading WR and looked solid in his return from injury last week. I definitely wouldn’t pay his price on FD, but he’s an ok option on DK. Outside of Erickson, the Badgers do make very effective use of their TEs. Troy Fumagalli stepped in for the injured Austin Traylor and immediately produced a solid stat line of 60 receiving yards and a TD. On sites like FD and FA that require a TE, he’s a solid target.

Elite Options – Dare Ogunbowale

Secondary Options – Troy Fumagalli, Alex Erickson

Iowa Hawkeyes at Northwestern Wildcats – O/U 40

Iowa

This is another ground and pound Big 10 game and not a one that you want very much exposure too. The interesting play here is Jordan Canzeri and I’ll be very interested to see his ownership levels. He’s coming off an insane game that saw him run for 256 yards on an absurd 43 carries..43! He also added a receiving TD to top off his day. His price jumped a little bit but he’s still affordable on both sites and Leshun Daniels, Jr., has already been declared out so Canzeri will likely see a big work load again. This will be a much bigger test than last week though as Northwestern is a quality defensive team whereas Illinois isn’t. Given his work load, he’s a solid cash game option but there are others I prefer, but I definitely wouldn’t expect an outing similar to last week, and he’s a guy I’ll like fade in tournaments given that some might continue to chase last week’s big game as well as the tough matchup

The Iowa passing game is fairly weak and with Northwestern ranking in the top 10 in pass defense I’ll be staying away from the entire Iowa passing game. Their TE George Kittle has caught a TD in three straight games, but he gets next very little volume so he is entirely TD dependent.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jordan Canzeri, George Kittle

Northwestern

Outside of Justin Jackson, Northwestern really lacks playmakers offensively. Their quarterback play has not been good and their quarterback Clayton Thorson has primarily just served as a TD vulture, which has hurt Jackson’s fantasy output. The weakness of this Iowa defense has been their passing defense, but I don’t trust this Northwestern passing game at all.

Jackson was shut down by a nasty Michigan defense last week, but he’s rushed for over 100 yards four times this season. At some point, I expect the rushing TDs to come which should mean he really outperforms his cheap price point. However, this may not be the week as Iowa has been very good against the run allowing only 2.8 YPC.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Justin Jackson

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