CFB Grind Down Week 7 - Early Slate - Page 3

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-17 13:03:07

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Indiana Hoosiers – O/U 61.5

Rutgers

We finally have a line on this game as Indiana is installed as 6.5 point favorites with a solid total of 61 points. This is a bad Indiana defense, especially against the pass as they are 121st in the country. Rutgers is RBBC and rotates their backs, and I don’t trust their QB Chris Laviano at all so this one is Leonte Carroo or bust for me.

Carroo was reinstated just prior to last week’s game and promptly lit up the Michigan State secondary for three TDs. Rutgers is a run first team but when they do pass they force feed Carroo, and he’s really talented. He’s only played in three games this year due to discipline issues but he has three TDs in two of those games, and should have plenty of success against a weak IU secondary. His price is elevated around the industry so he’s not a target in cash games, but I don’t mind him as a GPP play.

Elite Options – Leonte Carroo

Secondary Options – None

Indiana

There are a lot of question marks for this Indiana offense as both their starting QB, Nate Sudfeld and their starting RB Jordan Howard missed last week’s game and are listed as questionable for this one. Given the line, a lot of people are expecting Sudfeld to play whereas Howard is still up in the air.

Rutgers suspended a lot of their secondary just prior to the season, and have been roasted through the air as they’re 123rd in passing yards allowed per game. If Sudfeld does draw the start then he’s a great source of salary relief at just $5,300 on DK and I’d prefer him to a guy like Michael Brewer, especially if Howard sits. Sudfeld’s status also directly affects Simmie Cobbs and Ricky Jones. If Sudfeld sits then Indiana will be down to their third string QB, which would take Cobbs and Jones off the table for me. However, if Sudfeld plays then they’re both in play as they are cheap around the industry. The primary issue is deciding between the two and it’s really a coin flip. Jones had the better start to the year, whereas Cobbs has been the better performer in Weeks 4 and 5.

Lastly, we’ll need to monitor Jordan Howard’s status up till kick as he’s way too cheap if he’s fully healthy. If Howard sits then Devine Redding should draw the start and becomes a solid value option around the industry.

Elite Options – Nate Sudfeld (DK – if he plays), Jordan Howard/Devine Redding

Secondary Options – Simmie Cobbs/Ricky Jones

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats – O/U 56

Oklahoma

OU really flopped last weekend as they got run over by their arch rival Texas. Their offense really struggled, but this is a solid bounce back opportunity for their passing game as Kansas State is 122nd in passing yards allowed per game. Baker Mayfield struggled last week, but he’s had a terrific start to the year otherwise. Given KSU’s struggles in the pass game, Mayfield should get back going here, and is a solid option on DK at $8,000. On FD, I’d just prefer to pay a little extra to grab Russell or Mahomes.

Sterling Shepard has been somewhat disappointing this year, but he’s still the top option for the Sooners. His price has dipped down to $5,900 on DK and with KSU’s weak secondary that’s where I’d look to get exposure to him. Mark Andrews put up a goose egg last week but he does have some big play ability at TE, and is one of the better options on FD and FA where a TE is required.

Samaje Perine continues to struggle and has only topped 100 rushing yards once this season. He just doesn’t seem to be a great fit for OU’s new Air Raid offense and is in GPP only territory at best.

Elite Options – Baker Mayfield, Sterling Shepard (DK), Mark Andrews

Secondary Options – Samaje Perine

Kansas State

This is an interesting spot for the Wildcats as they’re coming off of a near upset of TCU. I do worry about what they have left in the tank after that disappointing loss as we’ve seen Texas Tech get pasted the week after their near upset of TCU, and then Indiana get blasted following their near upset of Ohio State. The difference here is that Kansas State will get to play this one at home so hopefully the home crowd can provide them with some energy here.

Joe Hubener had a big game last weekend against TCU, and while he lacks passing ability, he is a huge threat in the QB run game. He’s still just $5,700 on DK, and has topped 20 DK points in three of the four games where he’s played the entire game (he was hurt early in the game against Oklahoma State). OU just allowed 100 rushing yards to Texas QB Jerrod Heard, and was also gashed on the ground by Tulsa earlier this year so they can be had on the ground.

Outside of Hubener, this offense is really difficult to predict so it’s mostly an avoid for me. Charles Jones does come in and vulture Tds so he’s the only other person that would be on my radar.

Elite Options – Joe Hubener (DK)

Secondary Options – None

Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines – O/U 40

Michigan State

This game should be a quality game watch as it’s a rivalry game between two quality teams and two very good defenses. However, from a fantasy perspective this is a game that I want little to do with. The strength of Michigan State is their running game and Michigan has the third ranked rush defense this year. They’ve also amazingly pitched three straight shutouts and this is a spot where I’ll fade the Spartans offense.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Michigan

This game features a total of only 40 points, and although Michigan is favored, their team total is just 24 points. Michigan State continues to be a solid run defense as they are 32nd in the country. Also, Michigan RB De’Veon Smith missed their last game, and Michigan hasn’t really updated his status so it’s a situation I’d look to avoid.

EDIT – I missed that MIchigan eased Smith back into action last week – thanks for Daneydaney pointing out my mistake. It’s still not a matchup that I think is a great one to attack so I’ll stay away.

The Spartans have really struggled in their secondary but it’s tough to trust the Michigan passing game as Jake Rudock has been under 200 passing yards in four straight weeks. On FD, Jake Butt makes for a decent option at TE, and maybe a guy like Amara Darboh re-emerges at WR, but there’s nothing to feel great about here.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Jake Butt

Kent State Golden Flashes at Massachusetts Minutemen – O/U 55

Kent State

This is a FD only game but there’s not a lot to like with Kent State despite a good matchup on paper. They’ve only topped 14 points one time this entire season and the best play on this team is their RB, Trayion Durham, who isn’t available on FD. Their starting QB Colin Reardon has been ineffective this year and is in danger of losing his job so that’s a position to avoid. Their leading WR has just 10 receptions for 164 yards so I’d just fade Kent State in this spot.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

UMASS

This is another FD only game as UMASS made the slate for some odd reason. The UMASS QB Blake Frohnapfel and their star WR Tajae Sharpe were popular options last week, and came through with massive days. As a result their prices really took a jump so I’m not nearly as enthused about them as I was last week. Additionally, Kent State doesn’t push the pace like Bowling Green did last week. Frohnapfel should have a solid day but at his price point, I’d prefer to pay a little more and get Dak Prescott, Chad Kelly or Dane Evans.

I like Tajae Sharpe, but I prefer him on a full PPR site, which FD isn’t, and his price is really up at $7,900. If I’m paying that price, I’d just go up to Corey Coleman, but most people will likely have that same thought process so he should be low owned for tournaments. Marken Michel is their second WR and could be worth a look as a WR3 at just $5,000. Rodney Mills returned to the lineup last week and put up 100 yards and two TDs, and is my top TE on FD if you are spending.

Elite Options – Rodney Mills

Secondary Options – Blake Frohnapfel, Tajae Sharpe, Marken Michel

Syracuse Orange at Virginia Cavaliers – O/U 54

Syracuse

This is the third and final FD only game of the slate and it features two sub-par offenses but also two defenses that have been terrible against the pass. Virginia is 111th in passing yards allowed and Eric Dungey was solid at QB for the Orange last week, and also saw 17 carries. He has put up at least 18 FD points in each of his three starts, but with FD having a softer cap, I’m not sure he’s worth the risk at QB. They’re RBBC so I’d avoid the Syracuse running game. They also don’t have a go to WR but maybe Steve Ishmael is developing into that top option. With the loose cap on FD, I just don’t think it’s necessary to roll the dice here though.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Eric Dungey

Virginia

This is a really bad Syracuse secondary but it’s hard to put any trust whatsoever in Virginia QB Matt Johns. I’d be more inclined to roll the dice with a guy like Canaan Severin or even TJ Thorpe but that’s still not a play I feel great about.

Taquan Mizzell is a solid receiver at RB for the Cavaliers but he’s really seen his carries drop, which makes him very risky, especially with other solid RBs at a similar price point.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Canaan Severin

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