CFB Grind Down Week 7 - Early Slate - Page 4

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-16 14:58:21

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies – O/U 52

Alabama

I’ll be heading to this game and hopefully I won’t have to sit through another 59-0 debacle. This game really sets up for a solid day from Derrick Henry for a few reasons. The strength of A&M’s defense is clearly in their defensive ends, but at times this season, they have been too aggressive getting upfield which has opened up some running lanes. A&M is 77th in rushing yards allowed per game and gave up a big day to a similar back in Alex Collins. Alabama still has quarterback issues and with this being a road game, they should lean on Henry. He’s scored in every game this season and is about as safe of a cash game option as you’ll find.

Henry is really the only Tide player I’m looking at, with one notable exception on FD where Calvin Ridley is still sitting there at $4,500. I’ve already seen his name thrown around a ton as he’s topped 100 receiving yards in two straight games, scored a TD in three straight, and was a five star recruit last season. For cash games, I think you just roll with the crowd and take the savings with Ridley. For tournaments I do think he’ll be highly owned so I don’t mind playing the fade as A&M can really pressure the QB, which has resulted in them being a quality passing defense this season.

Elite Options – Derrick Henry, Calvin Ridley (FD)

Secondary Options – None

Texas A&M

I typically don’t mess around with the Alabama defense and with the Ags projected at just 24 points, I’ll stay away this week. The only site where I’d maybe give them a look is DK, where they’ve lowered the price points due to the tough matchup. Christian Kirk is one of the top freshman in the entire nation, and his role is growing on a weekly basis. A&M is looking to get him the ball as much as possible, and against Mississippi State he even lined up as a Wildcat QB for a few snaps. It’s pointless to try to run on this Tide defense so A&M will be airing it out and Kirk has emerged as the top option, ahead of even Josh Reynolds. At $5,900, he’s maybe worth a GPP shot, but I definitely wouldn’t go there in a cash game.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Christian Kirk & Josh Reynolds (DK)

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers – O/U 47

Nebraska

Another Big 10 game, another total under 50 so there’s not much to like here. Minnesota is just a quality defense all around and really gave TCU fits earlier this season. They’re 15th against the pass and 37th against the run, and this is a spot where I’d just stay away as there are much better situations to attack.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – None

Minnesota

Nebraska is 127th in passing yards allowed per game, but the problem is that Minnesota’s passing offense has been awful. Mitch Leidner hasn’t topped 75 passing yards in either of his last two games, and is a bigger threat on the ground than he is through the air. Overall the only guy that peaks my interest a little bit is Shannon Brooks. I don’t love the matchup as Nebraska has been a very good run defense on the season. However, Brooks’ role seems to be expanding as he had 17 carries last week and turned in a big day with 176 rushing yards and a TD. I haven’t seen any confirmation that he’s taken over the role as lead RB, but I think that it will happen sooner rather than later. If he is indeed taking over as the top RB there is some upside as Minnesota is a very run heavy offense, but given the tough matchup and undefined workload he’d be GPP only for me.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Shannon Brooks

Vanderbilt Commodores at South Carolina Gamecocks – O/U 44

Vanderbilt

This is another game to largely avoid between two bad teams. I mostly swore off this Vanderbilt offense earlier this year when they couldn’t muster up any offense against Western Kentucky, and not a lot has changed. I’m not a fan of Johnny McCrary or the Vanderbilt passing game, but Steven Scheu is an option on sites that require a TE.

The only guy I do like on Vandy is their RB Ralph Webb. South Carolina is allowing an extremely high 5.5 YPC (114th) on the season and Webb has 25 carries in three of his last four games, and also sees solid usage in the passing game. He’s sitting at a very playable $5,300 on FD if you need a cheap RB2, and who knows if the South Carolina team shows up to play given Steve Spurrier’s sudden retirement.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Ralph Webb, Steven Scheu

South Carolina

South Carolina has been a mess offensively this season, and Vanderbilt is a quality defensive unit. The only player I’m remotely considering on South Carolina is their star WR Pharoh Cooper. Despite bad QB play, he’s actually topped 100 receiving yards in two straight games, and South Carolina will try to scheme the ball into his hands as much as possible. His poor offense really puts up a cap on his ceiling though so there are other WR with better QB play that I prefer for cash games.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Pharoh Cooper

Oregon State Beavers at Washington State Cougars – O/U 59

Oregon State

Oregon State was crushed last week by Arizona and looked really bad so I’d expect them to be very low owned. However, I don’t mind a guy like Seth Collins in a tournament as his price is down, he’s facing a bad Washington State defense, and he offers solid rushing upside. The Cougars are allowing 5.1 YPC (97th) and Collins has run for over 100 yards twice this season. Oregon State has a team total of 25.5 points so it’s certainly plausible that he accounts for two of those TDs with 250 yards of total offense. I wouldn’t take the risk in cash games as he’s been far too volatile but I’ll have a share or two of him in tournaments.

Storm Barrs-Woods has been a disappointment at RB and the only other skill position player to flash any upside has been Jordan Villamin. However, as we saw last week, his production is tied to Collins, who can be very up and down as a passer. He has been Collins favorite target throughout the year and Oregon State is expected to be playing from behind against a weak defense the opportunities could be there, but there’s not a high floor here at all.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Seth Collins, Jordan Villamin

Washington State

Washington State is coming off a big win in Eugene against a reeling Oregon team and will return home a lot of confidence. Oregon State is 33rd in passing defense but they really haven’t been tested all year long so I’m not putting a ton of faith in their passing defense numbers. The Washington State passing offense and Luke Falk is rolling right now, and he’s a great cash game option week in week out due to his high volume in the pass game.

He has three very good WR to throw to in Gabe Marks, River Cracraft and Dom Williams. Marks has emerged as his top option, and is still too cheap on FD so he’s a great value there. Cracraft is a PPR so he’s better utilized on DK, and he’s actually very cheap there this week at just $5,400. Dom Williams is the third guy and he’s a target in the red-zone so he’s a guy I’d look to more on FD.

Their running game is largely one to avoid but if you need a cheap RB on DK or FA, I may have a share or two of Gerard Wicks. Due to the pass happy Washington State offense, his volume in the running game is not what I’m looking for as he hasn’t topped 8 carries in any of the last four weeks, and he’ll split carries with Keith Harrington and Jamal Morrow. However, he’s been a mainstay in the passing game with 22 receptions on the season. Oregon State has really struggled against the run as they’re allowing 5.4 YPC (109th) so if he can pop a run for a TD, he should pay off his salary given his usage in the passing game. It’s not a play I’d make in a cash game, but if you’re going stars and scrubs then he’s very cheap.

Elite Options – Luke Falk, Gabe Marks (FD), River Cracraft (DK)

Secondary Options – Dom Williams, Gerard Wicks

Akron Zips at Bowling Green Falcons – O/U 67.5

Akron

This is the DK only game so don’t overlook it as it carries a solid total of 67.5 points. I believe this is Akron’s first appearance on a slate this year, and to be honest I haven’t seen them play this season. I’m sure most haven’t either and given the unknown nature, they could be fairly low owned despite the fact that the matchup is great.

I watched a few youtube highlights of their QB Thomas Woodson and he has a big arm and offers some running ability, but looks to be fairly inaccurate, which is backed up by some of his passing percentage this season. He’s flashed some upside with 30 DK points in two games this year so given the matchup against Bowling Green’s 80th ranked passing defense, I’ll have some exposure to him in tournaments. In terms of yardage their leading WR has been Jerome Lane, but Imani Davis actually leads them in receptions with 19 and is minimum price on DK. DK continues to be a fairly tight cap so he’s solid source of salary relief in a plus matchup.

At RB Conor Hundley is sitting at a very affordable $4,800 and his carries have solidified in the 17-19 range over the past three weeks. If you need a RB in the sub $5,000 range, he’s definitely a guy that is in play and I’ll work him into some lineups.

Elite Options – Imani Davis

Secondary Options – Thomas Woodson, Conor Hundley

Bowling Green

The Bowling Green offense hasn’t really been slowed this season and it doesn’t look like it will happen here as they check in with a team total of 40 points. Matt Johnson is going to throw for a ton of yards as he’s topped 400 passing yards five times this year already, and the only question is whether the passing TDs are there. He has an elite set of WRs and is one of the top options at QB, but he won’t come cheap.

Roger Lewis is his top option and continues to bust out with big games. I’ll give Corey Coleman the slight edge but Lewis definitely has the upside to top him and is a great tournament pivot from Coleman. Outside of Lewis, Ronnie Moore, Gehrig Dieter and Ryan Burbrink all see solid usage, but it’s tough to peg which one is the guy to target on a week to week basis.

Finally, Travis Greene seems to have cemented himself as their top with back to back 100 yard games, and multi-TD games in two of his last three. He gets some work in the running game, and simply due to the potent nature of this offense, he’s going to have plenty of chances to get into the endzone on a weekly basis. He’s not a prime option, but he’s also not a guy I’d completely overlook as he’s topped 30 DK in two of his last three.

Elite Options – Roger Lewis, Matt Johnson

Secondary Options – Travis Greene, Ronnie Moore, Gehrig Dieter

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