CFB Grind Down: Week 7 (Late): Page 2

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-10-17 01:52:04

UCF Knights at Temple Owls – O/U 45

UCF

Elite Plays

None – UCF is going up against a top defense in the nation in Temple, and are 21-point dogs in a very low scoring matchup here. Temple is going to pound the ball with Jahad Thomas, effectively shortening the game for UCF and reducing the amount of times they can throw. There’s just is not anyone I would consider a good option on this team, especially for a team projected to score 12.

Secondary Plays

None – I could see a flier on Tre’Quan Smith for 3,300 on DraftKings, however, I really don’t like it. UCF is going to have to toss it around but Temple has a solid defense (albeit better against the run) and UCF is only projected for just over ome touchdown in this game. The WR corps is a mess right now with about seven guys catching passes, and the darling of the Tulane game, D’erren Wilson, making a bunch of drops last week. Just avoid this situation.

Temple

Elite Plays

Jahad Thomas ($9,500 FD, $8,500 DK) – Another stud RB gets the call here for Temple, and while I do not love his price, I feel like 150 yards and a TD is his floor here. UCF’s defense has been miserable this year, and with Temple projected around four TDs, the run game should get at least three here unless they really fall flat on their face. The game flow is definitely in his favor and I would expect a huge workload.

Secondary Plays

Robby Anderson ($6,300 FD, $4,100 DK) – I probably will not use Anderson on FD, but on DK I think he is in play. At 4,100, he is the WR on Temple most likely to score a TD and is the #1 WR. He is not a volume receiver, however, as Temple likes to control the clock with the run game, but he is reliable for four catches every game and a few red zone targets. I would not use him in GPPs because the upside is limited, but a nice punt play on DK in cash.

Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs – O/U 46

Missouri

None – Lock has been decent as the starting QB, but there is no one here I want to play against Georgia, especially considering that Missouri could only muster three points against Florida last week. The Georgia defense is intimidating as well here, and with Missouri only projected for 15 points, I see no reason to risk it with Lock despite being extremely cheap. There are better options you can find other than the main players on this offense.

Georgia

Elite Plays

Sony Michel ($8,000 FD, $7,200 DK) – It is a shame what happened to Chubb, but this Georgia rush attack is just going to keep pumping out star RB after star RB. Michel has been awesome this year when given the opportunity, gaining around 7.0 yards per attempt, and while the Missouri run defense scares me a bit, the interchangeable nature of this Georgia rush attack is attractive. Lambert is not a good QB, so Georgia will continue feeding Michel, and 25 carries seems to be a near certainty this week. Michel was able to run for 145 last week on 22 carries, so I think 200 yards and two TDs is a real possibility this week, despite the fact that Missouri has not allowed a 100 yard rusher yet – they have not faced a team like Georgia and their rush attack.

Secondary Plays

None – I thought about Malcolm Mitchell a bit because of Missouri’s horrible pass defense, but I just could not bring myself to it. I think that Georgia continues to run the ball through Michel and allow him to destroy the other team and with Missouri getting blown out, they will have no reason to extend the game with passing plays.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes – O/U 47

Penn State

None – Ohio State has not been as good as advertised as they allowed Maryland to score 28 on them, however the over/under in this game is pathetic at 47 and Penn State are basically 20-point underdogs. Two touchdowns is all that is expected to be scored by the Nittany Lions and with no real solid playmakers outside of Barkley, Hackenburg should struggle despite needing to throw most of the game. I just cannot get on board with anyone here despite Ohio State’s recent defensive struggles.

Ohio State

Elite Plays

Ezekiel Elliott ($9,700 FD, $8,200 DK) – Another top-tier RB in a blowout game with game flow going his way. Elliott is an elite play but with some of the other RBs out there I am not sure that you will want to use him especially considering that Penn State’s defense has been effective this year. The upside and the floor is there as Meyer will give Elliott the ball and he is one of the most explosive backs in college, the real question is do I spend my high priced salary dollars on him or another RB around the same cost?

Secondary Plays

Michael Thomas ($6,000 FD, $4,500 DK) – Thomas is a nice cash game play as he gets his five catches per game for 50 yards and scores a TD about half the time. The Penn State defense is solid, but we still have Ohio State projected over 30 in this game, so around four TDs should be scored, which is plenty for Elliott to get two or three and Thomas to still have room to eat. Really, the only reason why I am considering him here is his relatively cheap price, and the fact that there are no other solid reliable WRs on this slate.

Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes – O/U 68

Arizona

Elite Plays

Nick Wilson ($8,200 FD, $7,000 DK) – If Wilson goes, he becomes another top RB play on the slate. Almost every team has a top RB on the slate so picking the right value WRs I think is the way to go here. Colorado is giving up basically the same amount of rush yards per game as passing yards which means that generally their rush defense is terrible, as they are in the bottom 25% of defenses in the FBS. Nick Wilson is a stud when healthy and for some reason he continues to be underpriced so if he is good to go, load him up here. If he is not, instantly Jared Baker becomes a great play as the likely starter and very cheap although Orlando Bradford would likely see a lot of work as well. I would go elsewhere other than Wilson on FD, but I like his price better on DK.

Secondary Plays

Johnny Jackson ($3,700 DK) – Jackson is still not available on FanDuel for whatever reason, but makes an interesting play at WR on DK. The senior has a knack for the end zone this year and with Solomon back it makes sense that his receiving numbers would go up more like earlier in the year. Jackson is not a possession receiver and is not going to rack up a lot of catches but does have the ability to break a big one against a poor Colorado defense. You need to save on WR to grab these stud RBs and I think the Arizona passing game is where to do it.

Cayleb Jones ($5,900 FD, $4,300 DK) – Jones still appears to be the #1 option on Arizona but without Anu Solomon, his game logs have gone down the toilet. I like pairing Solomon with two of his cheaper receivers to grab some of the higher priced solid RBs on this slate as I think that is the way to maximize points on this slate. Arizona should have to do more passing than they did in the blowout of Oregon State which means that there is a solid chance that these guys hit value.

Colorado

Elite Plays

Phillip Lindsay/Christian Powell – Again these two guys make solid value plays against an Arizona defense which has been porous against the run this year. Neither guy is a breakout star, but they have put up solid numbers in a not-usually-known-for-running Colorado team. My pick is Lindsay, as he has been getting the better of the two recently in terms of snap % and carries, and definitely appears to be the high-floor, high-upside play and is even cheaper than Powell on FD!

Secondary Plays

Nelson Spruce ($7,000 FD, $5,800 DK) – I probably would not use Spruce on FD as he is fairly expensive there and I am looking for bargain guys to fit two top RBs, however he is easier to fit on DK especially in cash games. Spruce has not shown any higher than about a six-catch, 100-yard game this year, but it appears his floor is five catches 50 yards and against a pretty bad Arizona pass defense should be able to put up some numbers today.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes – O/U 56

Arizona State

Elite Plays

None – Utah has a solid defense and has been really good at stopping the run this year only allowing 133 rushing yards per game which makes me worry about the Arizona State running game. Richard was a huge play on my end last weekend and with his injury and getting benched after a fumble, it really hurt. This week, it sounds like he will play but he will not play a full complement of minutes allowing Ballage and Foster some reps as well. As there are likely three guys in this timeshare and considering ASU is a fairly large dog here, I am avoiding this situation.

Secondary Plays

Tim White ($5,300 FD, $4,300 DK) – I really like White here who seems to have grabbed the #1 role in the ASU passing attack. White is a solid talent and should be able to catch a good amount of balls tonight against a Utah defense which has been solid but has had weaknesses in it’s secondary. White is extremely cheap on both sites and is a great WR play when trying to fit in the better RBs.

Utah

Elite Plays

Devontae Booker ($9,700 FD, $9,100 DK) – Booker again is a top RB on the slate, and with his enormous volume is always in play. Arizona State’s rush defense is solid but that does not really matter to Booker who has shredded the Utah State and Cal defenses with a ton of carries. If you can fit him, he is as good as Royce Freeman today.

Secondary Plays

None – I would think about using Travis Wilson as his run upside is solid but I do not think you can fit him in with all of the solid RBs. Wilson has not been great lately but does have solid upside so he is in play and I would not be surprised if he did well, I just like my lineups without him a lot more.

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