CFB Grind Down: Week 7 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-10-19 00:08:31

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels – O/U 52

Wake Forest

Elite Plays

None – I am unaware who will be starting for Wake Forest, but either way, neither guy would make an elite play. I would somewhat like Hinton if he were to play as UNC has been vulnerable on the ground so far with 235 yards per game given up, and Hinton has been the better quarterback for the Deacs so far. Wake Forest is really only projected for around 17 points in this one, and away from home there are much better targets to look at despite the cheap prices here.

Secondary Plays

Cam Serigne ($3,000 FD, $3,400 DK) – I would not recommend Serigne on DK because I really cannot stand using TEs there (unless they are stud TEs like Tyler Higbee), but on FD he makes a solid play. The Wake Forest passing attack is dominated by three guys in Serigne, Cortez Lewis and K.J. Brent, with each receiving around or just under 20% of the team’s targets through the first few weeks. Serigne is the one targeted in the red zone with 11 targets and the only pass catcher to record a TD (2) in all of the receiving corps. Bump Serigne if Wolford starts as he is the pocket passer, but if Hinton plays, he is still in play.

North Carolina

Elite Plays

None – I really thought about recommending Marquise Williams as an elite play, but I just can’t. He is the second-highest priced QB on both sites and is playing with a fairly average 35 points projected. I am liking Solomon and Kizer more at their price points in similar situations, and Boykin a whole lot more if you have extra salary. As for the WR situation, it is hard to pick between Switzer, Davis, Hollins and Howard, and even then those guys have a limited upside. Hood is the #1 RB but is not a 20+ touch back as Williams does all the work. There are better options, especially against a Wake Forest team ranked in the top 30 in overall defense in the country.

Secondary Plays

Marquise Williams ($8,800 FD, $8,300 DK) – I’ve really hated what I’ve seen from Williams when I watched UNC games, as I think he is inaccurate and a poor decision maker, but there is no doubt he is a great athlete and can get it done with his legs. He has a solid over/under and I love him as a GPP play as he has a real shot at racking up 4+ touchdowns by himself today. He is the guy to get if you really want exposure to the UNC offense.

TCU Horned Frogs at Iowa State Cyclones – O/U 75

TCU

Elite Plays

Trevone Boykin ($10,000 FD, $9,700 DK) – Boykin is the unquestioned #1 quarterback on this slate, and should be used religiously in all of your lineups. TCU has the highest total on the board in this slate and will be able to score at will against the ISU defense. To expect him to hit 50 fantasy points again may be asking too much, because I doubt that TCU will need to score on their last few plays to win the game, however, the floor that Boykin brings is unquestioned by any of the other QBs on the slate. Iowa State has not stopped anyone consistently this year and they certainly will not stop a top offense in the nation. Fire up Boykin as he will be 50% owned again in the late slate.

Josh Doctson ($8,700 FD, $8,400 DK) – Another game, another 150-yard, two-TD game for Doctson. Those numbers are becoming the norm, and as such, it is becoming harder and harder to fit both Boykin and Doctson in. They are still the top two guys to stack and especially against an ISU defense which has allowed 260 yards per game passing, and is expected to give up 6-7 touchdowns. We could again see Doctson hit 30 fantasy points fairly easily. He is flat-out an elite receiver and the only thing that scares me here is game flow.

Aaron Green ($8,000 FD, $7,200 DK) – In a slate with Fournette, Prosise, Elliott and Freeman, Green might be my favorite back as he is cheaper than them all. TCU has had to pass and use Boykin a lot in the last few weeks as the games against TTU and K-State have been close. I think they give Green a big workload in this one against an Iowa State defense who has not been horrible this year against the run, but is notorious for allowing big rushing efforts. Green is a cheaper way to get exposure to the TCU offense, and game flow should go his way as I expect TCU to score early and often and use the run game in the second half.

Secondary Plays

Kolby Listenbee ($5,800 FD, $3,700 DK) – This is more of a punt play on DK and not a great play on FD because of the price, however, Listenbee should be a solid GPP option on DraftKings pending his health. Patterson notes that he is not sure he is full speed yet which is concerning, but for a guy expected to be the #2 WR with explosive speed, there is upside here. If Listenbee is close to 100% I think I roll him out here, but if he is lower than 80% it is a fade to me, and a wait until next week to use him. Turpin is also an option especially if Listenbee sits as he would continue to receive a bevy of targets.

Iowa State

Elite Plays

Allen Lazard ($5,900 FD, $4,700 DK) – Lazard has not had a breakout game yet, however, he could in this one. TCU’s defense has actually been statistically worse than Iowa State’s this year, and while they deal with a few injuries, it allows the other teams to rack up the yards. Lazard is a highly touted 6’5, 220lb WR who has a decent QB getting him the ball in Richardson, in a game where Iowa State is going to have to throw and not rely on Mike Warren to carry them to victory. His price is affordable on both sites, and I like him for eight catches, 70 yards and a TD.

Secondary Plays

Mike Warren ($7,500 FD, $6,500 DK) – A fair price here for Warren, who has taken over the backfield for the Cyclones and produced some impressive performances in the last three weeks, the most impressive may have been his 127 yards against a stout Toledo defense. Anyway, his price is up and in a game where Iowa State may need to throw late in the game, we could see some of his carries diminished, however, he is still in play against a TCU defense which has not stopped the run very well this year and is expected to give up a decent amount of points to this Iowa State team. He is no longer a bargain-bin guy, but that does not mean that he is out of consideration tonight.

Boston College Eagles at Clemson Tigers – O/U 38

Boston College

Elite Plays

None – There are no elite plays here for BC and no secondary plays either. It is very hard to score fantasy points when your team cannot score and Vegas has the Eagles around 10 points in this game against the #5 team in the country. Clemson should be able to shut a one-dimensional BC defense down easily and no one is in play for BC on the offense end despite low prices due to lack of scoring and touches being spread around. I almost feel that it is more likely their defense scores in this game than their offense.

Clemson

Elite Plays

None – Boston College has the #1 statistical defense in the nation and while I think Michigan’s defense has been better overall, BC is no slouch at stopping opposing offenses. Clemson should still score points in this one but in no way am I paying up for Deshaun Watson on this slate against BC. The prices on these guys are high, this is going to be a low possession, low play game and should not be targeted.

Secondary Plays

Artavis Scott ($6,100 FD, $5,800 DK) – If you really want to take a Clemson guy here, the guy I would roll with is Scott. I can see a lot of short slants and screens to Scott to try to break down the BC offense and is the one guy I think could have a solid game. I would be more cautious on FanDuel because of the .5 PPR, but on DraftKings, I could certainly Scott receiving around 10 catches in this game for 5.8k.

Florida Gators at LSU Tigers – O/U 46

Florida

Elite Plays

None – Here we get into a string of games with over/unders in the 40’s and some really unattractive fantasy games. With the news about Grier and Treon Harris starting, we have now the sample size from last year to look at when trying to predict what will happen. I am off Robinson because Harris was under 50% completion last year and is more of a runner, and with an over/under around 20 I think there are better options to choose from rather than the Florida passing game.

Secondary Plays

Kelvin Taylor ($7,000 FD, $6,000 DK) – LSU has a top-10 rush defense in the nation, so I am really not a fan of this pick, but Florida has surprised us all year long and could continue to surprise. Taylor is going to get the bulk of the carries, and even though he did not surpass 100 yards last week, he still punched it in twice and had a decent fantasy day. This may be only a play for those who enjoy suffering, however, there is a situation that I see Taylor scoring three TDs and being a great GPP gamble.

LSU

Elite Plays

Leonard Fournette ($10,000 FD, $9,800 DK) – Who am I to doubt Fournette’s greatness? I guess I am not really, as he is still here in the “Elite Plays,” however, there are a couple of elite play RBs that I like better than him this week in Booker and Freeman, and even Green. Fournette is a special talent but was slowed a bit by the SC defense last week who had not been good against the run this year. Florida boasts a great group of CBs and has allowed under 100 yards on the ground per game this season, so I am fully expecting they come out and stack the box and try to make Harris beat them, which he cannot. LSU will still get Fournette involved and his upside is still off the charts, I just think this is finally a week where he is not the clear-cut #1 RB on the board.

Secondary Plays

None – I might think of using Dupre or Dural (both getting 30% of the team’s targets) because both are cheap and I expect Florida to make LSU throw the ball, but the problem is that the LSU passing game has been horrible and Harris cannot hit anyone he throws to. I can definitely see a GPP flier or two on these guys but they have not proven anything except they are inconsistent yet.

USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – O/U 61

USC

Elite Plays

Juju Smith-Schuster ($8,300 FD, $7,000 DK) – I am finding it hard to really love any of the guys on this team as a true “elite” play which can and should be used in both GPPs and cash games. Kessler should have to throw and he has weapons, his favorite and best being Juju with 47 targets on the year and he reels in over 70% of those targets. He will get his opportunities in this game and is one of the only reliable WRs on this slate. He is an elite play at WR, but could be hard to fit if you are trying to stack some of the better RBs.

Secondary Plays

Cody Kessler ($7,700 FD, $7,900 DK) – Kessler is the fourth-highest on DK but one of the cheaper options (cheaper than Kizer) on FD. I love him on Fd, but on DK not as much. Kessler is going to have to air it out, the problem is that Notre Dame’s defense has been elite against the pass this year making him only a secondary play. I do not think the Sark scandal will have much to do with his performance, but being a seven-point dog away from Home makes it a fairly risky proposition even with some really athletic WRs.

Notre Dame

Elite Plays

DeShone Kizer ($7,800 DK, $6,700 DK) – I am not playing him on FanDuel as I think there are better options around the same price point, but I just cannot get off him on DraftKings. His price has been way too cheap for the last three weeks and for a guy with a top WR in Fuller and a solid run game, he is way undervalued. He throws 30 times per game and appears to have a 20-point floor. USC has been average at defense in both passing and running and Kizer provides a threat each way. With Notre Dame projected at 35 points here, Kizer is a top play on DK.

C.J. Prosise ($8,500 FD, $7,900 DK) – Prosise is a TD machine, scoring nine in the last four games and receiving around 25 touches each and every game. USC has a solid defense, but Notre Dame is at home and projected for five TDs in this one, plenty for Kizer and Prosise both although I would not use them together on the same team. There are a lot of great RBs on this slate so Prosise’s ownership is likely to be down, however he is still a great play and has been seeing looks in the passing game as well catching four passes in each of the last two games.

Will Fuller ($7,300 FD, $6,300 DK) – Fuller is a fantastic play as well especially on DK where his price has been lower than it should be for a while. He is a TD machine and even with Kizer at QB has someone who looks his way about 8-10 times per game. This should be a close game and a game where Kizer is going to need to make plays, so why not get it to one of the best WRs in the country and let him make a play. I am big on the Notre Dame offense here as the Kizer/Fuller stack is only going to cost you 13K on DraftKings and they have one of the top over/unders today.

Secondary Plays

None – Outside of the top three guys in this offense, there really is not anything much to like. Chris Brown has a good number of targets, but his production is spotty and unreliable as is Torii Hunter Jr. Just stick to the main guys and move on.

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