CFB Grind Down: Week 8 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-10-26 12:46:06

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan varncass Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at LSU Tigers – O/U 67

Western Kentucky

Elite Plays

None – This is the lowest team total of Western Kentucky’s season and their prices do not reflect the fact that they are only going to score around three touchdowns against LSU. LSU is a top defense in the nation and allows under 100 yards per game rushing, so despite a cheap price, Anthony Wales is off my list as a target considering that the Hilltoppers are going to be behind most of the game and passing in the later stages. Doughty is too expensive and is reliant on yards and touchdowns to pay off his massive salary – this is a fade on this offense.

Secondary Plays

Taywan Taylor ($8,000 FD, $6,400 DK) – If you really wanted someone from Western Kentucky, I could get on board with the Taylor train. Taylor has established himself as Doughty’s favorite target this year, and even with Dangerfield at full health, Taylor has been incredible. With Western Kentucky behind, Doughty will sling the ball everywhere and Taylor should catch his share of passes. The price on DK is much better than FD as there are a few other WRs on FD with better matchups, but I could see him as a GPP gamble. You also might want to look at Tim Gorski, who should take over for Higbee at the TE position, and might get some looks at an absolute min price.

LSU

Elite Plays

Leonard Fournette ($10,400 FD, $9,800 DK) – This could potentially be the best matchup for Fournette of the year. We all know about him as a runner and how impossible he is to tackle, and his previous monster games in an offense predicated on getting him the ball and getting him stats, but think about this. Western Kentucky is one of the worst defenses in the nation and they give LSU one of their highest, if not the highest, team total of the year at 41 points, but have an offense which is going to score points and force Fournette on the field for the entire game. Game flow, team projected total, poor opposing defense and line, and the Heisman race all indicate that Fournette could have Samaje Perine 2014 version upside here.

Secondary Plays

None – I am all in on Fournette despite the likely high ownership so I am not using any of the WRs here as they are not good plays generally. The ground game should get all the work and I am not rolling the dice on Dural or Dupre to break a big gain as Harris just is not very good.

Florida State Seminoles at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets – O/U 56.5

Florida State

Elite Plays

Kermit Whitfield ($6,000 FD, $4,600 DK) – The price has been slow to rise here on Whitfield who should enjoy another game of taking short passes to the house against Georgia Tech. On a site like DraftKings for that cheap of a price and full PPR, Whitfield should be in serious consideration as he has caught 9 passes in back to back games and appears to be one of Golson’s favorite targets. The price here might be too good to pass up despite Tech actaully having a decent pass defense.

Secondary Plays

Dalvin Cook ($9,900 FD, $9,000 DK) – Cook is a secondary play here only because I am not using him with Fournette, as that cripples the rest of your lineup, and I am not using him instead of Fournette. FSU has a lower team total by around 10 points and while Georgia Tech has a terrible rush defense, they are a better defense overall than Western Kentucky and are at home here. Cook is a monster at RB and while he looks totally healthy he is a GPP own for me only here since FSU has a much better passing game to take the load off of Dalvin.

Georgia Tech

Elite Plays

None – We see time and time again that triple-option offenses never make good targets in daily fantasy. That continues this week as I am not looking to touch Georgia Tech against FSU in a lot of my lineups. The B-back is the only back that we can reliably look at for fantasy production, however, Skov is surrendering carries to Marshall and no longer looks like a great play for two TDs.

Secondary Plays

Marcus Marshall ($5,400 FD, $3,900 DK) – The B-back taking Skov’s carries is the guy that I think could prove to be an interesting GPP gamble. Marshall is the speedster with breakaway ability for the Jackets and the coaching staff has been preaching that they want to get him more carries. He is averaging 10 yards per carry on the year and while I do not expect more than 10-15 carries and hardly any goal line work, he certainly has the ability to break a big one and provide that upside for cheap. Pure GPP gamble here.

Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels – O/U 65

Texas A&M

Elite Plays

Kyle Allen ($7,800 FD, $6,600 DK) – Playing against Alabama is never an easy task, except maybe for Chad Kelly, but generally we can ignore offenses against them and ignore poor games against them. Allen had his worst game of the season last week against Alabama and his price has dropped as such, but gets a gunslinger game today against Ole Miss, which should have one of the highest tempos and most plays run of the day. Allen is going to throw the ball around 40-45 times in this game and with the second highest over/under on the board and an even spread, this should be interesting down to the wire. I love Allen’s price, especially on DraftKings today considering he now has three guys in Kirk, RSJ, and Reynolds to make plays downfield.

Christian Kirk ($7,400 FD, $6,400 DK) – Kirk is a stud and with seven catches for 70 yards per game being his floor, he is always a great play in cash. Kirk’s price has finally risen to a level that you actually have to think about using him, but he still is going to come through with a high floor and high target numbers. Seals-Jones and Reynolds have been stealing some of the TDs lately, but a softer matchup against a Ole Miss team which has been abused lately should be just what the doctor ordered for Kirk’s stat line.

Secondary Plays

Ricky Seals Jones/Josh Reynolds – I like both guys but would only use them based on price in a stack with Kyle Allen. Both guys are fairly hard to predict and should carry lower ownerships, but are also more affordable and could be the key to victory as both have high upsides. Use sparingly in GPPs, but based on price point.

Ole Miss

Elite Plays

Chad Kelly ($8,400 FD, $7,000 DK) – If Allen is being considered an elite play, Kelly has to be considered as well. At home as a 5 point favorite in one of the highest pace games of the night should equal a ton of passes and a lot of scoring. The problem is that Kelly is more expensive than Allen and Texas A&M has actually been one of the better teams in the nation at defending the pass. I like Texas A&M more than I do Ole Miss here and with cheaper prices I think they are the way to go.

Laquon Treadwell ($8,200 FD, $6,100 DK) – The price on FanDuel is a little bit outrageous, but at 6,100 on DraftKings he is certainly in play. It has taken a while, but Treadwell is evident as the clear #1 in this offense and should be treated as such. He continues to have one of the top target rates in the nation, and his 14-catch game last time out shows that. I would not expect 14 catches here but Treadwell is almost impossible to cover and Kelly is going to look his way time and time again.

Secondary Plays

Evan Engram ($2,500 FD, $3,400 DK) – With no real good options at TE on the FanDuel slate, it looks like you should either pay up for Hooper or punt with Engram or Gorski. Engram has not lived up to expectations this year, but did see a lot of looks in the previous game and this could be a situation where he is able to catch a few passes and make value. He just has not been as involved in the offense as we thought he would be, but is definitely someone to consider on FD. On DraftKings? Not so much, as there are much better options around the same price point who are not tight ends.

Kentucky Wildcats at Mississippi State Bulldogs – O/U 55

Kentucky

Elite Plays

None – This game currently has the lowest total on the board and with Kentucky as 12 point dogs here, they are one of the lowest team totals on the board. I do not trust their pass game as the only two I would consider are Dorian Baker and Garrett Johnson, but the Bulldogs have a solid pass defense and are going to look to keep Kentucky down in this one. Towles is decent, but he likes to spread it around and despite cheaper prices these guys just are not options for me.

Secondary Plays

Stanley “Boom” Williams ($6,200 FD, $5,500 DK) – Williams’ price is favorable here against a Mississippi State team who allows over 160+ yards on the ground every game. The problem is that Kentucky does not seem committed to giving one of their best players more than 15 carries per game so despite the fact that Williams has a great YPC number, we are still looking at limited upside here. Another issue is the fact of the low total and the lack of game flow, which makes me really hesitant to use him in anything but GPPs.

Mississippi State

Elite Plays

Dak Prescott ($9,200 FD, $8,700 DK) – Surprisingly, Prescott is one of my favorite QB plays on this slate despite the low total of the game. There really are no games that are clear targets with every game total between 67 and 55 points so we are looking at individual matchups and team totals more than game targets, and Mississippi State looks like a good team to target as 12-point favorites over Kentucky. Kentucky has a solid defense but they are vulnerable on the ground, a style that Prescott has not excelled at this year but was amazing at last year. I expect him to use his legs a little bit more in this game and pound through a 100 yard rushing game along with a couple of passing TDs. If you take out his irrelevant game against Troy, he has yet to go under 20 fantasy points in a game yet this year so he is actually one of the more reliable QBs in the game despite some vitriol.

Secondary Plays

De’Runnya Wilson ($6,700 FD, $5,500 DK) – Wilson is a guy everyone was expecting a lot from this year but never really produced until last week with two TDs. He is not a high volume guy like some of the WRs in the game but he is a solid WR and a great red zone target for Prescott. Wilson was 1% owned last weekend, and while I would expect his ownership to rise, I certainly see merit in pairing him with Prescott in some GPPs. Wilson carries solid upside with the touchdown likelihood, and even against a Kentucky team should provide a decent floor with upside in your tournaments.

Utah Utes at USC Trojans – O/U 59.5

Utah

Elite Plays

None – I cannot get on board with anyone as an elite play here. Despite the records reading 6-0 and 3-3 and #3 against unranked, USC is actually the favorite here at home and Utah’s offense revolves around one player who does not mesh with this slate. Wilson is up and down and unreliable (however, could make an interesting GPP gamble) and the WRs are not options against a USC team who has actually been okay against the pass this year.

Secondary Plays

Devontae Booker ($9,900 FD, $8,400 DK) – The price discount on DK is nice, but I still do not think he is a great play on this slate. You are still going to have a hard time pairing him with Fournette at that price on DK and it will be nearly impossible on FD. Booker is going to get the carries but as a dog here with other, better RB matchups I am finding it an extremely hard proposition to put Booker in my top five based on value for RBs on this slate. I think I am fading Utah in this game, and hoping that the USC defense can come up big.

USC

Elite Plays

Cody Kessler ($8,000 FD, $7,300 DK) – Kessler is one of my favorite QB plays if not my absolute favorite on this slate. Utah’s secondary has been able to be attacked by the pass this year and even in USC’s losses Kessler has still gotten his points through the air. His price is just too cheap for potentially throwing the ball 40 times in this one and I think he is one of the best options for cash game especially with the amount of talent he has at the WR position.

Secondary Plays

JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,400 FD, $6,600 DK) – I am not a huge fan of him on FanDuel, but his price on DraftKings is ludicrous. JuJu is the top option on this USC team and continues to come through game after game and for him to be down here at this price point is a mistake. I am going to target him, Kessler, and Fournette and attempt to find value somewhere else as those guys could put up 120 points by themselves. I am not big on Adoree’ as he has been quite inconsistent this year despite the big play ability, and will look to take advantage of his upside by rostering Kessler.

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