CFB Grind Down: Week 9 - Early Slate

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-01 21:13:18

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Andy “a25smith” Smith, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

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NOTE – I have not included weather in any of my analysis so be sure to check Kevin Roth’s weather report on Saturday morning.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Wisconsin Badgers – O/U 51

Rutgers

Wisconsin is a top 20 defense against both the pass and the run, and with Rutgers projected to score just two TDs this is a stay away. Their RB situation has changed on a weekly basis as they have three players that get work, and their one big time playmaker, Leonte Carroo, has a bum ankle and may not be able to play.

Elite Options- None

Secondary Options – None

Wisconsin

The Badgers come in with a solid team total of 35 points as Rutgers has really struggled defensively this season, especially against the pass. Wisconsin has typically been a run-first team, but with Corey Clement injured all season, and Dare Ogunbowale having more success as a pass catcher than a runner, they’ve turned to the pass more this season. Their QB Joel Stave left their last game with a concussion, but it sounds like he’ll be back this week. He’s cheap around the industry so if you’re looking for value at QB, I don’t mind him as a play. I’m more likely to get exposure to the Wisconsin passing game through his top two targets in Alex Erickson and Troy Fumagalli. Erickson makes for a great target on a full-point PPR site like DK as he’s racking up receptions with 26 over his last three weeks. He’s still just $5,200 on DK and should be in for another productive day against the 126th ranked pass defense. Fumagalli is one of the better options at TE on FD as he has 15 receptions over the last three weeks.

The Wisconsin RB situation continues to be a mess as Corey Clement’s status is still up in the air for this weekend. If he plays then he’s very cheap on DK, and Rutgers is allowing 5.1 YPC, so he could be worth a look there. I wouldn’t pay his price on FD, though, as he may not get a full workload right off the bat. Taiwan Deal returned to practice this week so Dare Ogunbowale won’t have the full workload even if Clement sits.

Elite Options – Alex Erickson, Troy Fumagalli

Secondary Options – Joel Stave, Corey Clement (if he plays)

Syracuse Orange at Florida State Seminoles – O/U 54

Syracuse

This isn’t a great spot for Syracuse as they head to Tallahassee and they check in with a fairly low team total around 17 points. Their freshman QB Eric Dungey has played well this year and his dual threat abilities have led to some quality fantasy performances. However, given the tough matchup, I’ll pass this week.

They don’t have much of a running game and given the tough matchup it’s an easy stay away. They do use Ervin Phillips as a receiving back, but the volume in the running game isn’t there for me. If I was forced to roster a Syracuse player it would be Steve Ishmael, who is emerging as their top receiver and has scored in three straight games. FSU has struggled at times against the pass in recent weeks, but overall this is a stay away for me.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Option – Steve Ishmael

Florida State

The big news here is that Dalvin Cook will miss this game. The news was announced late Thursday night so the backup FSU RBs are all very cheap. I haven’t seen a starter announced but based on Jimbo Fisher’s comments it sounds like they’re ready to cut Jacques Patrick loose. Patrick was a five star recruit last year with offers from basically every school in the nation so he’s a really talented kid. If he gets the start then he’s a great value play at just $3,500 on DK and $4,500 on FD. The other option would be Jonathan Vickers, who I’m not as excited about. It sounds like FSU wants to get Patrick some carries regardless so if we hear that Vickers is starting then we could be looking at a split carries situation. The scenario most conducive for DFS in my opinion is Patrick getting the start so keep an eye on the news.

Everett Golson struggled last weekend against Georgia Tech, but prior to that was showing some solid progress. Syracuse has really struggled against the pass this year as they’re 113th in passing yards allowed per game. Based on Syracuse’s weak pass defense and Dalvin Cook being out, this sets up up as a solid spot for Golson. However, he’s apparently banged up and is expected to start Saturday as of right now. If he’s good to go then he’s a viable QB2 on DK, but be sure to monitor the news. Kermit Whitfield has come on of late and looks to be Golson’s top target. He’s hauled in 24 receptions over the past three weeks, and brings a ton of speed to the table. With Syracuse’s struggles in the secondary, I could see him getting loose here and like him as a WR3 in tournaments.

UPDATE – If you’re taking a shot with Golson be sure to double check tomorrow as there seem to be rumblings as to whether he will play or not. Overall given what he’s shown this year I probably wouldn’t risk it. I still haven’t found news as to who will start at RB for FSU so if we don’t get word Patrick and/or Vickers are GPP only.

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE Everett Golson is OUT so Sean McGuire will start and is minimum price. Vickers is listed a top the depth chart so this looks like a split backfield and would be GPP only for me.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Sean McGuire Kermit Whitfield, Jacques Patrick (if he starts)

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions – O/U 43

Illinois

This looks like your typical ground and pound Big 10 game as it has a Vegas total of just 43 points. Illinois has a team total of just 18 points and will be without Josh Ferguson for another weak so they’re not a team to heavily target. Ke’Shawn Vaughn has received the bulk of the work since Ferguson went down, but just hasn’t been very productive. Wes Lunt continues to be very average and has shown zero upside so the only Illinois player worth a look is Geronimo Allison. He’s racked up at least 8 receptions in four straight games, and while I wouldn’t touch him on FD, he is still affordable on DK. It is a tough matchup though as Penn State has been very against the pass so far this year.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Geronimo Allison

Penn State

Illinois was a terrible defense in previous years, but they’ve made some solid strides this year and are ranked in the top 55 against the run and the pass. Christian Hackenberg stepped up with his first 300 yard passing game of the season last weekend, but overall he’s been a disappointment and this is a run heavy offense. Chris Godwin has emerged as Hackenberg’s top target and has topped 100 receiving in two straight games so he would be the one guy I would look to in PSU’s passing game.

Saquon Barkley disappointed last weekend, but based on James Franklin’s press conference it sounds like he’s going to continue to get heavy usage despite last week’s disappointing effort. He’s still averaging over 7 YPC on the season and is said to be getting close to 100% health wise. Illinois has been solid against the run this year, but Jordan Canzeri was able to run all over them so I don’t mind going back to the Barkley well. His price really jumped on a site like DK, but he’s affordable on FD and FA.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers – O/U 55

Nebraska

Nebraska draws a great matchup with a Purdue defense that is 68th in passing yards allowed per game and 104th in rushing yards allowed per game. The big news to follow here will be the status of Tommy Armstrong, Jr., as he’s listed as questionable and was reportedly in a walking boot earlier this week. If he sits then Ryker Fife would draw the start. Fife has limited game experience and is a former walk-on, but he is basically minimum price everywhere around the industry. He’d be a very risky option, but you could certainly stack your lineup elsewhere. If Kyler Murray draws the start for A&M, then I’d prefer Murray over Fife as the punt QB. If Armstrong does play then he’s a solid play on DK, but I wouldn’t pay his price tag on FD. Armstrong’s status obviously also affects his WR and if he is unable to go then I’d downgrade the entire Nebraska passing offense. Jordan Westerkamp continues to be the Husker’s top wideout, but he’s not seeing quite the volume he did earlier in the year.

If Armstrong does sit the interesting play for me is Terrell Newby. His volume has been very up and down, but he has put together two big fantasy performances this year so there is some GPP upside. I’d expect Nebraska to lean more on the running game if Armstrong sits, and Purdue is allowing 4.9 YPC on the season.

UPDATE – Tommy Armstrong is out and Fife will draw the start. You can take a shot with Fife on a low dollar GPP to punt QB, but I don’t trust him for cash games as the jury is still really out on this kid. I’d be more inclinded to roster Newby as he should see a usage boost against a defense that struggles to stop the run.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Ryker Fife (DK – GPP punt), Terrell Newby (GPP)

Purdue

This is an interesting matchup as Nebraska has been awful against the pass, while Purdue has been a terrible passing offense. After a big week against Bowling Green, David Blough has really struggled over his past three games. Given how bad he’s struggled it’s really tough to pull the trigger on him. However, Nebraska is 125th in passing yards allowed per game, and have allowed big days to Mitch Leidner and Clayton Thorson, who are not good quarterbacks. Blough’s struggles have hurt the Purdue wide receivers as well. DeAngelo Yancey is dirt cheap and bring some big play ability to the table. He doesn’t get a ton of volume but given Nebraska’s porous pass defense, I could see him breaking loose for a big play or two.

It looks like DJ Knox will miss this game with an ankle injury as Markell Jones is listed atop the depth chart. If Knox is out then I’d expect at least 20 carries out of him, and he’s shown some big play ability at times this year, including putting 150 yards on a tough Michigan State run defense. Nebraska is average against the run as they’re allowing 4.1 YPC so Jones makes for rock solid value play across the industry.

Elite Options – Markell Jones (if DJ Knox out)

Secondary Options – DeAngelo Yancey (punt)

Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers – O/U 57

Ole Miss

The Rebels head on the road to take on an Auburn defense that has been very disappointing this season. Auburn is expected to get Carl Lawson back from injury, and he’s a guy who can be a difference maker along the defensive line. Auburn in particular has really struggled against the run as they’re allowing 206 rushing YPG and 5.2 YPC. However, Ole Miss has struggled to run the ball this year so I don’t want too much exposure to the Ole Miss running game. Jaylen Walton is cheap and did get 22 carries last weekend so he’s worth a look at his cheap price point in tournaments, but he’s not a guy I’d target in cash games.

Auburn has been solid against the pass, but this will be the best passing offense they have faced all year. Chad Kelly is seeing nice volume in the Ole Miss passing attack as he’s attempted at least 40 passes in four of his last five games. I personally prefer guys like Matt Davis and Cody Kessler who are similarly priced to Kelly, but he’s not a bad option. After a slow start to the year, Laquon Treadwell is fully back and has put together three straight 100 yard receiving games and has four TDs over that span. He has some narrative street going for him as he suffered his gruesome injury against this Auburn team last year. His price is really juiced on FD, but I think he’s a rock solid top 5 option on DK. Beyond Treadwell, the Ole Miss passing game is tough to nail down so I’ll stay away. Evan Engram did finally make an appearance last weekend as he scored a TD so he’s worth a peek on FD.

Elite Options – Laquon Treadwell (DK)

Secondary Options – Chad Kelly, Jaylen Walton, Evan Engram

Auburn

Ole Miss has a very good defense and is getting some of their starters back from injury so this a tough spot for the Auburn offense. Sean White is just a game manager for the Tigers so he’s not even on my radar. Ricardo Louis has stepped up as the top receiving option due to the dismissal of Duke Williams, and has put together two solid weeks in a row. He’s cheap around the industry and brings some big play potential to the table so he’s in play as a cheap WR3.

The big question in this one is whether Auburn will be able to run the ball against an Ole Miss defense that allows just 3.1 YPC. Peyton Barber has been an absolute work horse as he has at least 26 carries in each of his past four games, and has 11 TDs over his last three weeks. However, his numbers last week were really helped by the 4 OT game as three of his four TDs came in OT. Due to sheer volume I don’t mind him as a play, but he’s a secondary option for me as he’s expensive and his upside is capped due to the stingy Ole Miss run defense.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Peyton Barber, Ricardo Louis

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