CFB Grind Down: Week 9 Early Slate - Page 2

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-10-30 19:12:59

South Carolina Gamecocks at Texas A&M Aggies – O/U 57

South Carolina

The Gamecocks check in with a pedestrian team total of 20 points and are 16 points under dogs. Perry Orth will remain the starting QB for the Gamecocks and he’s been incredibly average, and the strength of this A&M defense has been their ability to rush the passer. Based on that, he’s not under consideration for me, but his top receiver Pharoh Cooper is worth a look. Given A&M’s ability to rush the passer, I think we’ll see a lot quick passing plays to Cooper, and he’s now topped 100 receiving yards in three straight games. He’s a top 8 receiving option on this slate, but on my list he falls behind JuJu, the Western Kentucky and Tulsa WR, and probably Laquon Treadwell.

The weakness of the A&M defense has been their ability to stop the run as they’re allowing 200 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. That sets up nicely for Brandon Wilds who looks to be fully healthy and had 24 carries in his last game. Game flow could be a concern here, but Wilds is cheap and if South Carolina hopes to pull off the upset, it will be due to their ability to run the football. Based on that I think they come out with a run heavy attack, and Wilds is a guy I’ll have sprinkled in some lineups at his cheap price point.

Elite Options – Pharoh Cooper

Secondary Options – Brandon Wilds, Jerell Adams

Texas A&M

It did come against two very good defenses in Alabama and Ole Miss, but the A&M offense has completely imploded. As a result, A&M opened up the QB competition and a starter will be named on Friday. My guess is that Kyler Murray will be named the starter and if that’s the case then he becomes an intriguing punt play at QB. He was the National Gatorade high school player of the year last year and was very highly recruited. He’s very tiny, but extremely fast and brings some solid running ability to the table against a South Carolina run defense that is allowing 5.3 YPC. It can be risky rostering a freshman QB in his first start, and fellow A&M QB Kyle Allen imploded in a similar situation last year. However, at his price point,if he is named then he’s a guy I’ll have exposure to as he brings solid upside and allows you to load up at RB and WR.

The A&M receivers can be tough to nail down at times, but Christian Kirk has been their most explosive and reliable option this season. Ole Miss locked him down, but he’s otherwise been really good in every other game, and makes for a solid buy low opportunity as his price has come back down. Beyond Kirk, things get dicey, as both Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones have had their moments, but are not dependable on a week to week basis.

As mentioned A&M has faced two top 20 run defenses over the past two weeks that completely shut Tra Carson down. This is a much softer matchup as South Carolina has been run on all year long. His backup James White is getting healthy so he won’t have the backfield to himself like he did earlier in the year, but he should still see 15+ carries and be the goal line back. His price is way down and he’s a guy in the mix with the group of Brandon Wilds, Markell Jones, and Jacques Patrick that I’ll work into my lineups in some spots.

Elite Options – Christian Kirk, Kyler Murray (if he starts)

Secondary Options – Tra Carson, Josh Reynolds, Ricky Seals-Jones

UPDATE – Be sure to check in with Kevin Roth as it looks like it could be rainy throughout this A&M game, which could put a damper on the passing game.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Old Dominion Monarchs – O/U 65

Western Kentucky

This was the game I was really hoping to see included on the slate and I was really excited to see it on FD. This is a great spot for the high flying Western Kentucky offense as they have a team total of 44.5 points. Old Dominion has really struggled defensively and I’ll have exposure to this WKU offense in almost everyone of my lineups.

Brandon Doughty has already thrown for 3,000 yards this season and is my top QB on the board on FD. He’s thrown for a minimum of three TDs and 325 passing yards in each of his last six games, and torched this ODU secondary for five passing TDs and 371 yards last season. He will be missing his TE Tyler Higbee, but he has plenty of other weapons starting with Taywan Taylor and Jared Dangerfield. Taylor has at least 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games, including an impressive 100 yards and a TD last week against LSU. He’s right there with JuJu Smith as my top receiving option on the slate. If you can’t quite swing Taylor’s price tag, then Dangerfield is a great consolation prize at $6,800. He was injured to start the year, but he’s fully health and has a TD in five of his last six games. Beyond Taylor and Dangerfield, things get a little murkier as both Nicholas Norris and Antwane Grant can have the occasional big day but can also disappear.

In this matchup last year, Leon Allen ran wild for 180 yards and two TDs so both Anthony Wales and D’Andre Ferby warrant consideration. Between those two, I’ll give the edge to Wales as he’s fully healthy and looks to be taking over as the lead back. He had a monster game against North Texas and also managed to find the endzone against LSU. He brings more speed to the table than Ferby, and WKU will get him involved in the passing game. Ferby is the bigger back and can be a force inside the 10 so he could provide a cheap TD for $5,200.

Elite Options – Brandon Doughty, Taywan Taylor, Jared Dangerfield, Anthony Wales

Secondary Options – D’Andre Ferby, Nicholas Norris, Antwane Grant

Old Dominion

Old Dominion is 24 point underdogs and could easily get blasted here. However, they have a very good RB in Ray Lawry and I really like him in this matchup. WKU is allowing 4.5 YPC and he shredded them in this matchup last year for 148 yard and four TDs. The main concern with Lawry is that game flow could be working against him and he’s been somewhat volatile this year. Based on that, he’s probably better served as a GPP play, but he’s a high upside GPP play and a guy I want some exposure to. I’m expecting ODU to really lean on the running game due to their struggling QB so a huge game from Lawry is a definite possibility. ODU got blasted by FIU last weekend and he still saw solid volume last weekend, which is an encouraging sign.

Old Dominion was a quality offense last year but they’ve struggled to replace their QB from last year. Shuler Bentley was the starter to begin the year but was awful and lost his job. However, he’s back in there this week as David Washington is out with an injury. Zach Pascal is a pretty solid WR, but with Bentley struggling, he’s going to have a tough time producing.

Elite Options – Ray Lawry

Secondary Options – Zach Pascal

South Florida Bulls at Navy Midshipmen – O/U 50

South Florida

This is a Fanduel only game and really odd game to throw into the slate. Quinton Flowers is USF’s QB and he’s a former four star recruit that had offers from across the country, but chose USF because they offered him the ability to play QB. He had a slow start to the year but has really picked it up of late and has five rushing TDs over his past three games. The only downside to Flowers is that his price is really elevated at $9,000. I don’t mind it in a tournament if you’re rolling multiple lineups but if I’m spending $9,000 at QB then I’ll find the extra $400 and go get Brandon Doughty.

Their RB Marlon Mack missed last weeks’ game with an injury but he’s expected to be ready for Navy. He’s rushed for 100 yards in three straight games and has a very fair price tag at $6,600. Navy has been solid against the run allowing 3.9 YPC so this is a pretty neutral matchup. As mentioned Flowers is a threat to run the ball as well so he has limited Mack’s upside in the TD department. At his price point, he’s a solid option, but he’s not a guy I’d go all in on. With two talented runners in Mack and Flowers, USF really leans on the run so I’ll avoid their WR as the volume just isn’t there.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Quinton Flowers, Marlon Mack

Navy

Navy is a triple option team so we can cross their WR off the list from the get go. Their QB Keenan Reynolds really understands the offense and is the guy who makes it go. He’s a great runner and typically has 20+ rushing attempts per game. He’s put up some big games this year so he’s a guy that is in play for tournaments, but I’ll pass in cash games as USF has played solid run defense this year and he’s fully dependent on rushing TDs. Outside of Reynolds, Navy gets a lot of backs involved so there’s no one that really jumps out as a viable option.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Keenan Reynolds

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Virginia Cavaliers – O/U 54

Georgia Tech

This is another one of the Fanduel only games and I’m interested to see how Georgia Tech responds following their insane last second win over FSU last weekend. I could see them building on that win or I could see them coming out a little flat after such an emotional win. With Georgia Tech running the triple option, the only players that I really look to are their QB Justin Thomas and their B Back, who is now Marcus Marshall. Their top WR Ricky Jeune doesn’t see a ton of volume but has scored in two of his last three games and will get a few deep shots down the field.

Justin Thomas is a GPP only play at best as he doesn’t provide much throwing upside so if Virginia shuts him down on the ground then he’s cooked. Last year, Georgia Tech rolled over Virginia 35-10 and Synjyn Days, their B back, had a big day with 147 yards and a TD. Marcus Marshall looks to have taken over as the starting B back and given how Virginia defended the triple option last year, Marshall would be the play I would look to the most from Georgia Tech.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Marcus Marshall, Ricky Jeune, Justin Thomas

Virginia

The Virginia offense really faltered last week against UNC as Matt Johns proved to be the pedestrian QB that we know him to be. His inconsistent play really hurts his WRs so I’ll be avoiding the Virginia passing game this week. The one play that does intrigue me is Taquan Mizzell. I prefer him on a full PPR site like DK as he’s a weapon out of the backfield. However, he had 24 carries last week to go with 6 receptions and Virginia seems determined to get him touches over the past two weeks. I could see him having a solid day as Georgia Tech has struggled against the run at times this year, and he’ll be involved in the game play regardless of whether Virginia is ahead or trailing.

Elite Options – None

Secondary Options – Taquan Mizzell

USC Trojans at California Bears – O/U 69

USC

This game should be a fun one to target, especially the passing offenses of both teams, as it has a total of 69 and a spread of just six points. Cal has consistently been one of the nation’s worst pass defenses over the past few years, and nothing has changed this year as they are 107th in passing yards allowed per game. Cody Kessler’s price has come down across the industry and this sets up as a game where he should easily throw for 300 yards and multiple TDs. The only downside to him is that he doesn’t provide that dual threat ability that some other QBs do. His top target is JuJu Smith-Schuster and he is the elite WR on this slate that I want a ton of exposure too. He has at least 100 receiving yards in five of his seven games, and should make easy work of this porous Cal secondary. Beyond JuJu things get a little murkier at WR. Adoree Jackson doesn’t get a ton of volume but he’s a big play waiting to happen and I could easily see him breaking a long TD against this secondary. Steven Mitchell is a questionable to play so I would stick with JuJu in all formats and maybe take a GPP shot with Adoree.

The USC RB situation isn’t nearly as clear as their passing game. Tre Madden is tentatively expected back so there are potentially three mouths to feed in Madden, Ronald Jones and Justin Davis. Jones in particular has looked really impressive for a true freshman tailback but there just may too be many mouths to feed if Madden does return.

Elite Options – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cody Kessler

Secondary Options – Adoree Jackson

Cal

This offense is all about their future first round draft pick in Jared Goff and he’s attempted at least 40 pass attempts in each of their past four games. If Cal is going to keep this one close it will likely be through the air against a USC secondary that has been below average. Based on their team total, Goff seems like a safe bet for three passing TDs and over three hundred passing yards.

His top target, Kenny Lawler has been quiet of late, but his price has dropped and he’s Goff’s prime target in the red-zone. Outside of Lawler, it’s really tough to pinpoint any one Cal WR as Goff really spreads it around. They have a solid TE in Stephen Anderson who gets solid volume so he’s one of the better TE plays on FD.

Daniel Lasco is expected to return to the starting lineup and is said to finally be 100%. He’s struggled through injuries the entire year and hasn’t been healthy since Week 2. Given his struggles, his price has dipped all the way to $4,900 on FD and $4,400 on DK so he’s priced around $2,000 less than where you’d typically see him. I’m typically hesitant in a player’s first game back from injury but given the price discount he’s a guy I’ll have some GPP exposure too.

Elite Options – Jared Goff, Kenny Lawler

Secondary Options- Daniel Lasco, Stephen Anderson (FD)

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