CFB Grind Down: Week 9 - Late Slate

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-11-02 13:44:07

Each week, one of the best CFB DFS minds out there, Jonathan “varncass” Schiller, will break down the upcoming college football slate to help you narrow down the best targets.

This analysis should point you in the right direction as you set your CFB DFS lineups, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

Editor’s Note: Haven’t heard? We’ve got CFB Incentives, which include full projections and expert picks from some of the top college football daily fantasy players out there. Find out more about our Incentives offerings here!

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Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils – O/U 48

Miami

Elite Plays

None – This Duke defense is one of the best in the country on both sides of the ball and teams against Duke consistently have some of the lowest over/unders each week. Miami just got throttled last week by Clemson 58-0 and after losing Golden, I am not looking for much out of this team especially with Kaaya’s injury. The line opened around +8 for the Canes and has quickly shot up to +11 which cannot be good here. If Kaaya is out, a min price flier on Malik Rosier is not advised but could be worth a strange gamble if you are desperate for salary; just keep in mind he was absolutely terrible against Clemson.

Secondary Plays

Joseph Yearby ($6,900 FD, $6,000 DK) – An interesting GPP gamble here for Yearby as he has been super productive this year despite the last couple of games. I expect the ground game to be the focus with interim coach Larry Scott and I would not be surprised to see Yearby garner his highest carry total of the game, as I am sure Scott does not want to see Rosier throw 40 times against Duke’s impressive secondary. The prospects are not good here, do not get me wrong as the ‘Canes are a mess all over the field but the volume and the fact that Duke has given up 130 yards per game rushing makes an interesting low owned pivot from some other RBs.

Duke

Elite Plays

None – Even with Miami being a dumpster fire right now, I still am not fond of the Duke offense. Sirk finally put it together last week with a solid performance but his price has risen here and I do not trust him just yet. The coaching staff refuses to get Powell the ball and while Shaun Wilson appears to be the more explosive back, they still refuse to give him the ball either. The WR’s are a mixed bag with McCaffrey breaking out in the last game but only because Sirk found his arm and made some solid throws. There are still too many questions to rely on this Duke offense after only one solid performance.

Secondary Plays

Thomas Sirk ($7,700 FD, $6,800 DK) – We saw Sirk’s upside in the last game against Virginia Tech in which he scored 40 points and if you are looking at the total defense numbers, Miami actually has a worse run defense than Virginia Tech which is where Sirk piled up a good number of those points. I doubt we can expect 4 touchdowns passing, but I think we can look for another 100 yard rushing game with a score or two and possibly some momentum in the passing game as well. I like other guys here more, but Sirk is the dual-threat QB we chase in fantasy and does have upside.

Shaun Wilson ($4,700 FD, $3,700 DK) – Be very, very careful with this pick and only use him if you really need the space and cannot find anyone else. Miami’s rush defense is like swiss cheese giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground and with Wilson being the better back recently and Powell’s touches decreasing, we could see a major breakout game from the runner. Sirk is the #1 option in this run game here so if you pay for Wilson, just know you are getting a #2 and probably a #3 guy who is only going to get around 10 touches.

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers – O/U 38

Michigan

Elite Plays

None – The first two games here are clunkers with solid defensive teams and low totals and this game comes in with a ridiculously low total at 38 points. Both teams love to run the football which is going to cut down on the number of plays and both teams have top defenses compared to their offenses making points at a premium today. I cannot recommend anyone as an elite play here – there really just does not appear to be any upside for any of these guys with a 26 over/under for the Wolverines which is some of the underdogs over/unders on this slate.

Secondary Plays

De’Veon Smith ($6,100 FD, $5,000 DK) – You could do a lot worse than rostering Smith this week as he has been hampered by two solid run defenses in the Spartans and Wildcats in the previous two weeks that Michigan had games. He is coming off a bye week and is the clear leader in this backfield, so a large workload is expected here and Minnesota happens to be a bit weaker against the run than the pass. Look for Harbaugh to control this game with his defense and the run game and for Smith to go for something like 115 yards and a touchdown.

Minnesota

Elite Plays

None – The Gophers are not even solid plays on regular games as their offense is based mostly on running the ball and Michigan just does not allow that to happen. the Wolverines have the top defense in the nation and only the top 10 ranked Spartans have scored points on them in their last four games. Just avoid Minnesota.

Oregon State Beavers at Utah Utes – O/U 54

Oregon State

Elite Plays

None – Well this seems like a disaster. Gary Andersen appears satisfied to switch QBs between Mitchell and Collins for the rest of the year making the position much too risky to use in fantasy unless some clarity emerges. That really makes the passing game also extremely risky considering that neither Villamin nor Bolden has locked down a good rapport with either QB and neither guy can get the WRs the ball consistently. This game is not one to use any of these guys either as the Beavers face an angry Utah team coming off their first loss of the season and Oregon State has a terrible over/under where they are only expected to score two touchdowns. This is fade city.

Secondary Plays

Ryan Nall ($4,500 DK) – Nall for whatever reason is not available on FanDuel which is a real disappointment as I would expect him to be min priced here. He is 1,500 over minimum on DraftKings which is also somewhat disappointing but keeps him squarely in the secondary area after his huge workload last week against Colorado. I expect another big workload as Nall was actually effective running the ball and Woods and the rest of the backfield is banged up. Woods has not been good this year and neither has the offensive line but we are looking again at around 20 carries for an extremely cheap back; the issue here is that Utah’s run defense is light years ahead of Colorado’s, so step lightly.

Utah

Elite Plays

Devontae Booker ($9,000 FD, $8,900 DK) – Booker’s worst game of the year came last week against USC and his price dropped in tow. It would not be smart to jump off the bandwagon here though as Booker is arguably the top RB play on this slate. I expect Utah to get back to smashmouth football and jam Booker down Oregon State’s throat who has really struggled to stop the run this year giving up almost 200 yards per game on the ground. The pass game was what Utah used last week due to game flow, but at home as huge favorites they should have no trouble getting ahead and using Booker to control the game and stay ahead. If you can find the salary, Booker is still an amazing cash game play.

Secondary Plays

Kenneth Scott ($5,200 FD, $4,600 DK) – Covey is coming off of his best game of the year and the best game for a Utah WR all year, but I am not on him today. Yes, I do feel like he is in play but I am going to be playing the fade in this one as I believe that Utah is going to abandon the pass to get back to running the football all over the Beavers who actually have a top 40 pass defense in the nation. If I am looking for a Utah WR instead I will go with Scott in GPPs who will be lower owned than Covey but who has similar season long numbers and appears to be just as likely to break a big game out. My ownership percentage is an educated guess, but I do expect the public to chase a bit – so let’s zag and play for the Covey miss.

Tulane Green Wave at Memphis Tigers – O/U 63

Tulane

Elite/Secondary Plays

None – Tulane, along with a lot of these 7 pm away teams, has a two-touchdown total and gives us no upside whatsoever. Their passing game with Tanner Lee at the helm has been a disaster this year and well, their entire team has greatly been a disaster to no surprise. Memphis is one of the top offenses in the nation and while they have a fairly poor statistical defense, they are expected to control the game so much to the point that Tulane is only projected around 17 points. The prices are affordable, but I am not chasing the Green Wave.

Secondary Plays

Teddy Veal ($4,300 DK) – Another guy FanDuel left out of the player pool this week, Veal is the #1 option on the Tulane passing offense. Despite having a terrible season so far, the Memphis secondary is absolutely exploitable allowing around 340 yards per game for one of the worst marks in major conference football. Tulane is not going anywhere by running the ball here against a stout Memphis defense so look for Lee to air it out and get it to the #1 wideout. I am expecting around eight catches for 80 yards and a score for Veal here with potential for more.

Memphis

Elite Plays

Paxton Lynch ($10,000 FD, $10,100 DK) – Lynch is my top target at QB on this slate against Tulane as Memphis has the top over/under and are playing arguably the worst team on the slate. Tulane does not have a poor statistical defense but they have played no one and been absolute garbage this year. Lynch is a stud QB who has led Memphis to a great start to the season and this Memphis offense does not quit. The problem generally is that they spread the ball around so well here, that it is hard to peg a game in game out stud to use every week except Lynch who is a mortal lock for 4 TDs with upside for 7 with a 50 over/under here. He is the top play on the board.

Anthony Miller ($7,400 FD, $5,700 DK) – The price has risen a bit but for $5,700 on DK, it is still criminal to avoid Miller. He has been the best receiver for the Tigers in the past four games and despite not really trusting anyone except Lynch in this offense I think I am getting to the point where I can trust Miller to catch about five passes and break at least one for a big gain. Tulane’s secondary will not offer up much resistance to these athletic WRs on the Tigers and Miller is a great stack with Lynch.

Mose Frazier ($6,800 FD, $6,500 DK) – Frazier is super cheap as well who is the guy who catches the most passes for the Tigers and while I understand the price on DK being that high, I really love his price on FD. Despite not scoring all that often, I still think he gets in the end zone here and makes value at that cheap price point and one does not just assume a Memphis player will not score a TD. I am looking for exposure and the cheap way to get exposure to this offense to fit Lynch and in my opinion the way to go is the bargain way on both sites considering the opportunities these guys will have.

Secondary Plays

Jarvis Cooper/Doroland Dorceus – Cooper appeared to be in line for the bulk of the carries and the #1 RB job until he did not play because of an injury last Thursday. All signs point to him being OK for this game, however with the way that Dorceus ran against Tulsa, I would expect him to continue to get in on the action like Memphis has been doing all year. Memphis is running four running backs a good amount of carries right now with Dorceus and Cooper looking to get the most and Henderson and Craft in the backfield as well. I would not consider any of these guys an elite play just because of the timeshare and the fact that they might end up splitting a lot of the carries but if we can get confirmation of a snap count or the way that Memphis plans to deploy them, I would look at them hard as they are all around 4.5k on DraftKings and 5.5k on FanDuel. The RB spot for these Tigers is a very productive spot, but the carries are nearly impossible to predict right now.

Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones – O/U 52

Texas

Elite/Secondary Plays

None – Texas has now won two straight on the back of short yardage Swoopes and this team is exactly zero fun DFS-wise. The Longhorn offense is based on running the ball which Heard, Foreman, and Gray all do extremely well however it appears that they are committed to giving Swoopes the ball at the goal line to punch it in which he did three times last week stealing all of the TDs in the last four weeks as none have gone to the big yardage players. This is frustrating for fantasy, as Gray who gets a ton of volume is basically useless with the lack of goal line carries and Heard is useless as well because he is not a great passer and will get his touchdowns vultured. I am honestly not using anyone from this game despite the fact that Texas is a favorite against Iowa State in this game and Iowa State has a miserable defense – I just cannot get past the fact that you would not be surprised if the RBs went without a TD again and Heard only grabbed one.

Iowa State

h3.Elite Plays

Allen Lazard ($5,800 FD, $4,800 DK) – This pick all hinges on Lazard’s health as of the writing of this article he is questionable and we are not sure if he is going to be able to suit up. I am looking for more than suiting up here as I want to make sure there is no more issues with his shoulder and he is going to not be used as a decoy. If we can get confirmation, he instantly becomes one of the top WR targets on the board with a new QB in Lanning throwing him the ball against a Texas defense giving up 260 yards per game through the air. Lazard is a big strong target with a few large games under his belt and when healthy is a top receiver in this offense.

Quenton Bundrage ($5,800 FD, $4,900 DK) – If Lazard is still hampered, I am rolling with Bundrage as the top option here who has developed a great rapport with Lanning catching the most balls that he has in forever in the last two along with two nice touchdown receptions against Baylor. It will be interesting to see if it is the chemistry between Lanning and Bundrage, or if it is the fact that Bundrage is taking the opportunity with Lazard out to put up some of the better numbers of his career. Anyways, it appears that Iowa State has found a competent QB to get this passing game going.

Secondary Plays

Mike Warren ($6,600 FD, $6,100 DK) – Warren is affordable on both sites here and while most people probably have him ranked a bit higher than me, I will explain myself. Warren has been a great back for the Cyclones and is getting a ton of volume, but Thomas has been eating into those carries a bit and stealing some of the goal line carries, taking away the short yardage TDs that Warren was getting earlier in the year. I also am expecting Iowa State to air it out with Lanning to see what they have in this new QB, making the WRs my preferred play. I still do not think you can go wrong at this price here as Warren is a 25-30 carry monster who is basically guaranteed to cross 100 yards; just hope for a big TD run.

Joel Lanning ($6,500 FD, $6,100 DK) – Nearly this entire offense is targetable today with cheap prices and a decent over under against Texas. The game should be entertaining as two poor defenses square off against each other. Lanning has been, well, great in the games that he has played so far with a solid completion percentage around 66% on the season along with hooking up for three TD passes last week and showing a little bit of mobility as well. I would still like to see a little bit of consistency and a whole game before judging, but jumping on a future star before the price jacks up is a great way to make money which makes Lanning an interesting GPP gamble for me today. He is cheap and you can pair with one of the solid WRs for value.

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