CFB National Championship DFS Analysis: Alabama vs Georgia

Depth Charts

Georgia

QB – 1. Stetson Bennett, 2. JT Daniels
RB – 1. Zamir White OR James Cook , 3. Kendall Milton OR Kenny McIntosh
WR – Ladd McConkey OR Kearis Jackson
WR – 1. Jermaine Burton, 2. Robinson
WR – 1. Adonai Mitchell, 2. Marcus Rosemy- Jacksaint
TE – 1. Bowers OR FitzPatrick OR Washington
KOR – 1. McIntosh, 2. White
PR – 1. Jackson, 2. McConkey
K – Podlesny

Alabama

QB – 1. Bryce Young, 2. Paul Tyson
RB – 1. Brian Robinson, Jr., 2. Trey Sanders
WR(Z) – 1. Jameson Williams, 2. Treashon Holden
WR(X) – 1. JaCorey Brooks, 2. Javon Baker
WR(H) – 1. Slade Bolden, 2. JoJo Earle
TE – 1. Cameron Latu, 2. Jahleel Billingsley
K – Reichard
KOR – 1. Jameson Williams, 2. Slade Bolden
PR – Slade Bolden

Team Stats (from Teamrankings.com)

Passing Offense

Alabama averaging 341.4 passing YPG (6th) on 37.2 attempts/game (18th)
Georgia averaging 253.8 passing YPG (46th) on 26.5 attempts/game (106th)

Rushing Offense

Alabama averaging 158.1 rushing YPG (66th) on 37.3 attempts/game (57th)
Georgia averaging 191.9 rushing YPG (34th) on 36.8 attempts/game (62nd)

Passing Defense

Alabama allowing 221.4 passing YPG (51st) on 32.8 attempts/game (88th)
Georgia allowing 186 passing YPG (9th) on 31.7 attempts/game (74th)

Rushing Defense

Alabama allowing 83.4 rushing YPG (2nd) and 2.6 YPC (2nd)
Georgia allowing 83.9 rushing YPG (3rd) and 2.7 YPC (5th)

Plays per game

Alabama averaging 77.2 plays per game (13th) and Georgia averaging 64.2 plays per game (119th)

Snaps

Alabama total snaps (out of 1,065) – Young (981), Jameson Williams (810), Metchie (774- out for season), Robinson, Jr. (666), Latu (613), Bolden (550), Billingsley (438), Brooks (254), Randolph (227), Holden (184), Earle (161), Sanders (154), McCllellan (111 – out for season), Roydell Williams (109- out for season), no one else over 100

Alabama SEC Championship snaps (out of 73) – Young (73), Jameson Williams (71), Robinson, Jr (52), Bolden (44), Latu (43), Brooks (40), Billingsley (40), Metchie (39), Sanders (17), Randolph (10), Holden (5), Leary (4)

Alabama Semifinals snaps (out of 77) – Young (77), Jameson Williams (67), Brooks (60), Robinson, Jr. (49), Latu (47), Bolden (45), Billingsley (38), Sanders (28), Earle (18), Baker (17), Hall/Holden (5), Jones-Bell (3)

UGA total snaps (out of 926) – Bennett (651), Bowers (609), Mitchell (457), Fitzpatrick (444), Burton (352), McConkey (333), Cook (313), Rosemy-Jacksaint (290), Washington (284), Zamir (279), Jackson (240), McIntosh (177), Robinson (173), Johnson (146), Milton (101), no one else over 100

UGA SEC Championship game snaps (out of 82) – Bennett (82), Bowers (65), Washington (40), FitzPatrick (38), Cook (38), Burton (37), Mitchell (32), Jackson (30), Rosemy-Jacksaint (29), McConkey (29), McIntosh (28), Zamir (24), Pickens (20)

UGA Semifinal snaps (out of 69) – Bennett (69), Bowers (48), Washington (44), Fitzpatrick (41), Zamir (30), Burton (39), Mitchell (26), McConkey (23), Cook (21), Rosemy-Jacksaint )20), Jackson (19), Pickens (18), Milton (11), McIntosh (10), Edwards (4)

Targets

Alabama – Metchie (128- out for year), Jameson Williams (111), Bolden (48), Robinson, Jr (34), Billingsley (33), Latu (30), Holden (18), Brooks (16), Earle (16), no one else over 10

UGA – Bowers (66), Mitchell (48), McConkey (37), Burton (28), Cook (28), McIntosh (23), Jackson (21), Fitzpatrick (15), Rosemy-Jacksaint (11), Washington (11 – 9 games played), no one else over 10

Other Notes

Both of these defenses have been very good to elite all year long, and have been especially nasty against the run ranking in the top five in YPG allowed and YPC allowed. The “weakness” of the Alabama defense has been interior pass catchers. The Florida TE, Zipperer, led them in receiving against Alabama with 4 receptions for 51 yards, Chase Rogers (Ole Miss TE) had 3 receptions for 53 yards and a TD, Jalen Wydermeyer (A&M TE) had 3 receptions for 73 yards and a TD, Bech (LSU TE) had 5 receptions for 33 yards a TD, Kern (Arkansas TE) had 3 receptions for 47 yards and a TD, and then Brock Bowers had 10 receptions for 139 yards and a TD in the SEC Title game. An Auburn TE (King) also had a TD, and the other Georgia TE (Washington) also added a TD, so Alabama allowed a TD to a TE in seven of their games this season. As for slot WRs, the Miss. State slot (Walley) led them in receiving against Alabama, Ainias Smith (A&M slot) had 6 receptions for 85 yards and 2 TDs, and Treylon Burks (elite Arkansas WR) went off with 8 receptions for 179 yards and 2 TDs. The lone outside WR to have a big game against them was Tillman (Tennessee) with seven receptions for 152 yards and a TD. Only 1 RB (Davis-Price from LSU) had a 100+ rushing yards and only two other RBs had more than 50 rushing yards.

The “weakness” of the Georgia defense has been outside WRs as they have shut down running games and the interior passing game. Ngata (Clemson LWR) had six receptions for 110 yards, Vann (South Carolina LWR) had three receptions for 128 yards and a TD, Dove (Missouri RWR) had four receptions for eighty-four yards, Tillman (Tennessee RWR) had ten receptions for two hundred yards and a TD, and then Jameson Williams (7/184/2) and Metchie (6/97/1) both had big days in the SEC Championship game. They did not allow a 100-yard rusher all year long and no RB had over seventy-five rushing yards against them.

Alabama won the SEC Championship game 41 to 24, taking a 24-17 lead into half after failing behind early. In terms of offensive production, the game went according to script of the “weaknesses” of the defenses as neither team could run the ball and both teams went pass heavy with Alabama attempting forty-four passes to twenty-six rushing attempts and Georgia attempting forty-eight passes to thirty rushing attempts. The outside Alabama WRs, Jameson Williams and John Metchie soaked up the passing production, and then Brock Bowers at TE went off and Darnell Washington also added a receiving TD.

The target breakdown in that game for Alabama was Jameson Williams (9), Metchie (8), Bolden (7), Billingsley (6), Brooks/Robinson/Holden (2), Latu (1). For Georgia, the targets were Bowers (15), Pickens (5), Cook (5), Burton (4), McIntosh (4), Jackson (3), Mitchell/McConkey/Zamir (2), Washington/Fitzpatrick (1).

The big injury news from that game was John Metchie tore his ACL right before halftime, so Alabama has played the last game and half without him. Brooks has started in his place and the target breakdown without Metchie in the semifinal was as follows: Jameson Williams (9), Brooks (5), Bolden (3), Billingsley/Sanders (2), Baker/Latu/Earle (1). The semifinal game did feature a run heavy game script as Alabama ran wild on Cincinnati.

The last note from that SEC Championship game is that Georgia surprisingly had zero sacks. Coming into that game, the Alabama offensive line had been up and down allowing four sacks to A&M, four sacks to LSU and seven sacks to Auburn. On the season, Alabama allowed 2.7 sacks per game (97th) while Georgia averaged 3.2 sacks per game (9th) with a 9.25% sack percentage (11th) so getting to the QB is likely the big focus for the Georgia defense heading into this game.

Analysis

We get an SEC championship rematch here with Georgia favored by three and a total of fifty-two so the oddsmakers are expecting a lower scoring game than the sixty-five points scored in the SEC championship game. From a showdown perspective, this is a tricky game as Georgia spreads things around so much and it does not feature the first-round skill talent like we saw in the previous three championships with Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, and Clemson all featuring multiple first round picks at the skill positions.

Pricing and lineup building is different on DK vs FD as you can fit Young/Bennett/Bowers/Williams on DK whereas it is impossible on FD, and I will primarily focus on DK as I just cannot get behind the 40% to first payout in the big FD GPP.

Starting at QB, it makes sense to jam both QBs as both defenses have just been lights out against the run so offensive production would be more likely to come via the pass. If you are just looking to play one of the 2 QBs then Bryce Young is just far and away the more talented player and projects better so it’s hard to get away from him as the captain/mvp in cash games and single entries. However, I am thinking Georgia wins a lower scoring game so in GPPs, I am definitely on board with Bennett (or a skill position player) as the captain/mvp.

Moving on to the RBs, this is a brutal matchup for every RB in terms of rushing production. On the Georgia side, you will see a split with Zamir White, James Cook, and then McIntosh and Milton as well so it is a definite timeshare. Cook and McIntosh are the best receivers of the group and get more targets, so they are my preferred options, and I would rank them 1. Cook, 2. McIntosh , 3. Zamir and 4. Milton. Zamir is going to need to run well in terms of getting short TDs to get there in my opinion. Cook in particular has flashed some big-time receiving upside and if Alabama shades more coverage to Bowers after his big SEC title game, then Cook could have more room to work out of the backfield. For Alabama, Robinson dominated snaps after their backups were injured earlier this year, but Sanders saw seventeen snaps in the SEC title game and then twenty-eight in the semi-final. With this game drawing more casuals, I do worry about Sanders picking up some steam as a value option as they’ll see his fourteen carries last game and ten against Auburn in his recent game log. The semi-final game definitely featured elite game script for him, and this matchup is brutal, on top of the fact that Alabama could be playing from behind. I am thinking Georgia brings a ton of pressure in this game after registering 0 sacks in the previous matchup and I think Alabama trusts Robinson a lot more in pass protection so think the snaps may tilt heavily back in favor of Robinson, so I will be underweight on Sanders. The matchup is still awful for Robinson, but he has had 3+ catches in 6 games this year so there is some pass catching upside at least. Overall, due to the matchup, I rank Robinson and Cook behind the other four main high-priced options (Young, Bennett, Jameson, and Bowers) so they would not make my cash game cut, but I will mix them in (along with McIntosh) in my GPP pool. Given the matchup, I would set a 1 RB per team max in lineup builder.

At WR, there are big time questions on both teams as we have to deal with projecting how Metchie’s targets get divided, and then on the Georgia side production and snaps are so heavily divided that it is basically roulette. Starting with Alabama, the obvious play here is Jameson Williams, and he is one of the few options on this slate that can just go bonkers. Outside WR is where Georgia has coughed up the most production, and Jameson is an elite big play threat that should push for double digit targets without Metchie. He would be in my cash game core, and he is certainly captain/mvp viable. The question here is whether Georgia makes large scale adjustments after he crushed them in the SEC championship and with Metchie not on the other side. If they slide coverage to Jameson then that opens up Ja’Corey Brooks, who has eaten up the lion’s share of Metchie’s snaps in the small sample. He had a long TD in the semi-final and although he is just a freshman, he was a five-star recruit, so the talent is definitely there. I like him in GPPs, even as a captain, as he gets the same plus matchup as Jameson and possibly gets more one on one matchups. The slot WR is Slade Bolden. He is not exciting and is more the possession WR type but there are certainly targets available, so he is in my GPP pool, although I prefer the matchup for Brooks. The primary backups are Baker (backs up Brooks), Earle (backs up Bolden) and Holden (backs up Jameson) and they would be strictly large field dart throws that are unlikely to push past eighteen snaps. With Holden backing up Jameson, I could just see him not playing so I would prefer Baker or Earle, but I will have little (if any) of them as I prefer the cheap TEs or UGA WRs. For Georgia, it is a complete mess as no WR projects for more than six points and McConkey/Mitchell/Burton/Pickens/Rosemy-Jacksaint at outside WR will all see between 30% to 40% of the snaps. Burton has played the “most” in the past two games and Mitchell has the most targets (48) on the season, so they’d be the “safest” out of that group. However, that group also is the outside WR spot that has not produced much against Alabama this season, so the matchup is also tough. Pickens is the wild card of that group as he just returned from an ACL injury three games ago and has not topped twenty snaps. When he is healthy there is no question, he is the best player out of that group, and he had 513 receiving yards last year and 713 receiving yards in his freshman year. He is the type of tall, contested catch WR that could produce against these Alabama CBs and had a long 37-yard catch in the SEC championship as well as five targets. He is risky due to health but in GPPs he would be my preferred option out of that group. Georgia does not use 3 WR set all that much but when they do then Kearis Jackson is the slot WR. He saw thirty snaps in the SEC championship and then nineteen in the semi-final. Like Pickens, he was good last year with 514 receiving yards, but he is struggled with injuries this year and has basically done nothing. However, he gets the better matchup as Alabama has coughed up more production to slot WR than outside WR, so I will take some shots on him based on previous year’s production and the better matchup. Overall, you are really just guessing at WR for Georgia so good luck– Mitchell and Burton are maybe the “safest” but in GPPs I will take my shots with Pickens and Jackson. Given the lack of concentration at WR for Georgia, there isn’t a ton of upside so you’re just looking to pick off that random TD or long catch so I’d max 2 UGA WRs in lineup builder.

At TE for Alabama, both Latu (30 targets) and Billingsley (33 targets) typically see a solid snap share and have both played at least thirty-eight snaps in each of their past two games as Alabama will use 2 TE sets. Neither are huge parts of the offense, and Georgia has not allowed much production to the TE, but just like with Bolden there are increased targets with Metchie out. Billingsley has had a disappointing season as he was unable to build on a breakout last year, but at $2,000 he pops as a strong points per dollar value option. He is definitely the better natural receiver than Latu and has more upside, but I do have some concerns about GPP ownership. Overall, I would lean Billingsley, and would prefer him in cash games/single entry, but him and Latu are close so both will make my GPP player pool, and I will keep my eye on ownership as we get closer to kick. For Georgia, they have their main weapon in Brock Bowers that they will use like a WR and move around the field and then we will also see lots of Washington/Fitzpatrick with Bowers in 2 TE sets. Bowers is easily the best Georgia option on offense and just flashes incredible talent for a TE. Alabama had no answer for him in the SEC title game as he put up a monster game and registered fifteen targets. As discussed in the other notes, Alabama has struggled with TEs all year, so the big game allowed to Bowers was not a surprise. Just like with Jameson Williams on the other side, the question is what adjustments Alabama makes after coughing up a big game to a position they have struggled to defend. If Alabama adjusts, then I could see things opening up for the other interior pass catchers like Cook or the 2nd TE, or maybe even Pickens in single coverage. Bowers is part of my cash game/single entry core but in GPPs I do have interest in the other two Georgia TEs in Washington and Fitzpatrick as Alabama could slide coverage to Bowers. Washington found the endzone against Alabama in the first game, and Washington/Fitzpatrick not only get the preferred matchup but also play more snaps than the Georgia WR, so they are on my value radar at minimum price. Both will make my GPP pool, but I will get more exposure to Washington. He missed the first part of the year so has played in only ten games and while he is not anywhere near a big part of the offense, he does have catches in 7 of 10 games and is bare minimum on DK. He is a sophomore that was an elite five-star recruit, so I think he is talented but has just been overshadowed by a freak in Bowers. In LineupHQ, I’d max one of Fitzpatrick and Washington as there’s just not enough volume and for Alabama, I would probably max two out of Bolden/Billingsley/Latu with the majority of my lineups probably just having 1 of them as I’ll focus on Jameson/Brooks on the outside.

I am typically team no kicker in these national championship games as we have seen so much offensive fire power in the past three years, but this year is different as there isn’t the offensive talent all over the field and we get a more NFL like total of 52 points. Given that, I will not go crazy at kicker, but they are certainly in play.

Overall, this is not the best showdown slate and in cash games/single entries the obvious quartet to start on DK will be Young/Bennett/Jameson/Bowers which unsurprisingly appears in both of the top two current optimal lineups. In terms of lineup construction, I’ll be mostly balanced due to the extreme rotating that Georgia does so I’ll have lots of 3/3 and 4/2 builds. For GPPs, I think Jameson/Bowers/Bennett/Cook/Brooks, with a Pickens sprinkle, are all pivots at captain from Young. I will be very cognizant of ownership as we approach kickoff as the projection between Latu/Billingsley at TE for Alabama and McConkey/Mitchell/Burton/Pickens/Rosemy-Jacksaint/Jackson for Georgia is small so you are not giving up much projection, or even snap/target share, by pivoting to the lower owned option. I will say Georgia wins a lower scoring game 27-20 and my hot take will be that one of Kearis Jackson or Darnell Washington takes advantage of the plus matchup and scores a TD at under $2,000 on DK.

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