CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday
By now, I’m sure you know the strategy involved in winning a cash game versus winning a tournament.
In a tournament, a few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd. In a cash game, you are trying to choose players that assure you some points or, in other words, are more predictable with a narrower range of outcomes.
Here are some cash game plays for the upcoming weekday slate and players to pivot to in FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments.
Note: Instead of breaking down only a few players this week, I opted to broaden the scope of my player picks due to the larger, more enticing midweek slate for Week 9.
Cash Game
Quarterbacks
Trevone Boykin, TCU – Not much needs to be said here if you’re at all in tune to college football, however, I feel as though explaining my position on him is a necessary part of attacking cash games this week. Boykin is the Horned Frogs’ offense. He’s accounted for 30 touchdowns in seven games and has eclipsed the 300-yard mark in his last five games. Though Boykin may not have any trouble slicing and dicing this West Virginia defense, the fact that he’ll be owned heavily makes him a risky fade in cash games. If he dominates the Mountaineers for 40+ fantasy points, which is very possible, not owning him in cash could be detrimental to your bottom line.
Zach Terrell, WMU – I really like this spot for Terrell, who has been solid in favorable matchups this season. Terrell has two great receivers in Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis, which increases his floor as they can make plays after he gets them the ball. Eastern Michigan is a very bad defense and Terrell shouldn’t have any problem connecting with his receivers for multiple touchdowns. EMU has surrendered a ton of yardage to opposing teams this season, but they’ve often done enough scoring themselves to keep their opponents first unit on the field. Terrell is a safe bet to be around value at the end of this game. This issue that comes into play is paying up for Boykin and Terrell, who is mid-high priced, may leave the rest of your roster punt heavy on two quarterback sites. It’s definitely doable, but if you’re on a one quarterback site, or are only paying up for one quarterback in general, Boykin is the guy
Tyler Jones, Texas State – Jones makes for a decent play on sites that require two starting quarterbacks in your lineup. On most sites I’ve checked, specifically DraftKings, his price is very reasonable. At his price, Jones provides a floor of about 3-4x value. Even against a tough defense like Houston, he put up 19 DraftKings fantasy points. He has also scored a rushing touchdown in every game besides his Week 1 matchup with Florida State. In this game, Texas State is a three-touchdown underdog but still projected to score three touchdowns themselves. I can easily see Jones attempting upwards of 35 passes and adding 50 yards on the ground. For his price, he’s great salary relief in two-quarterback formats.
Running Backs
Demario Richard, Arizona State – Royce Freeman and Matt Breida could very well go off in their respective matchups, but I’d rather spend down for Demario Richard. Freeman gets a tough matchup in Arizona State, who have held most of their opposing running backs in check. Breida could possibly run for 200 yards and multiple touchdowns, but I’m not sure I can pay up that much for a guy that only gets about 15 carries a game and relinquishes carries to other backs. Richard is a monster at breaking tackles, almost half his yards this season have come after contact. If there’s a defense that he can bully his way through for tough yards it’s Oregon’s. Todd Graham claims he is 100% healthy after missing last week’s game, so I feel confident that he will get the bulk of the carries. Not counting the Colorado game, which he left on crutches after eight carries, he’s averaging 20 carries and is also not a victim to game flow. He’s been heavily involved in the passing game when the Sun Devils are trailing.
Jarvion Franklin/Jamauri Bogan, WMU – I don’t normally go after a 1-2 punch such as Franklin and Bogan, but Eastern Michigan is giving up 340 rushing yards per game to its opponents. They can’t stop anyone right now on the ground. I think there will be enough fantasy production to go around for both backs in a game that Western Michigan could hang 50 on their opponent. Even in three quarters of work, I can see both backs rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown. Bogan’s carries have increased lately, while Franklin has lost some ground usage wise. I’d probably prefer Bogan based on how he is trending up, but if you can only make Franklin fit due to site pricing, that’s fine too. I wouldn’t advise against using both in cash, but I could see a scenario where only one meets value.
Wendell Smallwood, West Virginia – Smallwood entered the Mountaineers’ game with Baylor injured, but still rushed for 89 yards. The West Virginia/TCU game has a huge total of 74, which includes 30 points from the Mountaineers. Before the Baylor game, Smallwood had ripped off three straight 100-yard games. In games that TCU has given up a bunch of yards and points, mainly the games against Texas Tech and Kansas State, the damage has been done on the ground. I expect Smallwood to get about 20 carries in this game depending on game flow, but even if West Virginia gets down early, he has proven himself as a decent pass catcher.
Shaq Vann, Eastern Michigan – Vann isn’t the starter, but he gets a ton of work in the passing game, especially the last five weeks. In a game that Eastern Michigan should be trying to play catch up, Vann should see a few targets in the passing game. He obviously has more upside on DraftKings, where he is closer to minimum price and benefits from the PPR-format. It’s not often that you find a player like Vann that you feel somewhat comfortable playing in a cash game. He has the highest floor of any 3K player on DraftKings. I’m not quite sure you need him on FanDuel, since you only need two running backs.
Wide Receiver
Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan – Braverman provides a really high floor because of the type of routes he runs. If you get to watch him this week, you’ll notice he gets a bunch of quick hitches, slants, bubble and tunnel screens. His stat line doesn’t always have a ton of yardage, but it usually has receptions and touchdowns. He’s caught a touchdown in his last six games, multiple touchdowns in his last three games, and has grabbed 10 or more receptions in five of seven games this season. With those kind of numbers and a team total of 42, I think he’s just as good of a cash game play as Josh Doctson on this slate, because of his savings. There is some trepidation that WMU may try to pound the run all night, but even in games that WMU has run for big yardage, Braverman gets his.
Josh Doctson, TCU – The same that was said of Trevone Boykin can be said for Doctson. He has a very high floor and there’s a small chance he gives you a complete dud. Plus, TCU is a well-known, high-ranked team that has a lot of buzz circulating around them. Doctson and Boykin are going to be highly-owned despite their price. Fading them in cash games is super risky because of their high floor and ability to completely go off. If you miss out on a 30-40 fantasy point day that’s going to be tough to make up elsewhere. This game should be fairly close, so expect to get the full four quarters out of him, which is even a bigger reason to be all over him. That, and the fact he has five straight multi-touchdown games.
Shelton Gibson, West Virginia – Gibson is the best receiver on the underdog team in a high-scoring game this week. That pretty much checks all the boxes for a wide receiver we’re trying to roster. I’d expect TCU to jump out to a lead and West Virginia to scramble to keep the game close on the road. With a projected team total of around 31 points, Gibson makes for a solid cash game play. Gibson has five reception and 100-yard upside with the potential for a touchdown.
C.J. Best, Texas State – I admittedly don’t follow Texas State very often, but I did watch their game with Florida State at the beginning of the year. I remembered Best because they called his name several times. Best is basically a possession receiver that’s going to catch a bunch of short passes. He’s also gotten a some carries on the season as well. He currently averages more than five receptions per game. With Texas State a fairly good-sized underdog, I imagine he’ll see an uptick in targets. For his very low price, five catches for 70 yards would be a solid day and that’s something he’s bested twice this year. He’s not going to win you anything this week with a monster game, he provides enough of a floor to not crush your team’s either.
Tight End
Matt Weiser, Buffalo – Weiser has become a big part of Buffalo’s offense over the past four weeks, catching 27 balls for 200 yards and a touchdown. Weiser is basically tight end on the slate that doesn’t have the chance to get you a bagel. There are some other solid tight ends like Kohl and Tuttle, that I couldn’t blame you for rostering for the price savings, but if you want to be assured points from the position Weiser is necessary.
Tournament Plays
Note: Do not build an entire GPP team with these recommended players. Instead, add a few of these high upside guys to your favorite core of cash game plays.
Quarterback
Marquise Williams, North Carolina – Williams continues to be priced up around the industry despite his inability to produce consistent fantasy. Williams final stat line can net him anywhere from 10 to 50 fantasy points. That’s the type of range of outcomes that you should actually seek in tournaments. Many people will be off Williams because they are paying up for Boykin and because Williams just isn’t consistent enough. Therefore, owning him in a tournament at a low percentage can give you an edge if he decides to put in one of his big rushing performances that result in gobs of fantasy points.
Kevin Ellison, Georgia Southern – Ellison presents the same upside as Marquise Williams. He’s a rushing quarterback that has the ability to break off big runs that are obviously more beneficial than long pass plays. Ellison’s team runs the ball a ton, giving multiple backs and Ellison carries. Ellison is capable of 100 yards and multiple touchdowns on the ground in any game. Ellison’s salary is pretty depressed on most sites because of his poor game last week. I don’t think many will be on Ellison so he’s a solid pivot.
Mike Bercovici, Arizona State – Bercovici has generally been able to take advantage of lousy defenses this year. He’s only one game removed from throwing five touchdowns against Colorado. Though last week he did struggle with Utah’s stout defense, this week he’ll get the Oregon Ducks who have been more than generous to opposing offenses. This game should have a bunch of points scored. Bercovici should have to throw the ball for all four quarters which makes him a good alternative to Zach Terrell, who has a better matchup and a prettier box score.
Running Backs
Royce Freeman, Oregon – Freeman is a GPP play for me only because there are other options at his price that I think will be rostered more heavily. You can’t have Boykin, Doctson, Braverman, AND Freeman, which is the order I’d want them in cash games. Often times you can find a consistent player like Freeman being lower owned, just because there are more popular plays in their price range. Freeman faces an Arizona State team that has stopped almost every running back in their tracks. However, Freeman’s usage is through the roof. He’s gotten 27 carries in three straight games and he’s been effective with them. Despite the tough matchup, Freeman can be a huge asset to tournament lineups this week with his low ownership
LA Ramsby/Wesley Fields, Georgia Southern – Georgia Southern is very generous with their carries when they are handling a team. There has been games this year that Breida, Ramsby, and Fields all meet value. Both these players offer some great salary relief, so if they get an increase in carries in the second half of their game with Texas State they’ll have a good shot to crush value.
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis, Western Michigan – Corey Davis comes in at a much cheaper price than his counterpart, Daniel Braverman, on most sites. Despite Braverman being the most targeted receiver on the team, Davis often does enough to warrant consideration. Davis has caught six or more passes in five of seven games and has also surpassed 100 yards in three games. He’s consistency isn’t as good as Braverman, which will lead to more players rostering Braverman, so paying down for Davis and upgrading at another position could be a great way to make a unique lineup that still has a chance at a home run score.
Darren Carrington, Oregon – After returning from his suspension, Carrington lit the Huskies’ secondary on fire racked up 125 yards and two touchdowns. Arizona State’s pass defense isn’t as good as their rush defense, so I can see Oregon throwing the ball more than usual if the Sun Devils start to stuff the run. I can see playing Carrington in cash just because his ownership may be fairly high for his price, but I think he’s better served in GPP lineups until we know last week wasn’t an outlier. It seems as though quarterback Vernon Adams liked throwing his way, so we’ll see if that trend continues in Week 9.
Tim White, Arizona State – White had a tough time with Utah last week, dropping a few passes that could have made his bottom line look a lot better. Before last week, he was really trending in the right direction, culminating in a 140 yard, multi-touchdown game against Colorado. Bercovici looks for him often and will continue to in this high-scoring game with Oregon. White has been able to beat subpar defenses. Hopefully the pace of this game allows White to see more targets than usual. White also gets a lot of special teams work, so he has the chance to add six points on returns.
Jovon Durante, West Virginia – Durante has faded through the middle of the season after starting strong. However, the tale of the tape tells a different story than his box score. In the Mountaineers’ last game against Baylor, a game that I figure to have a similar flow to their game this week against TCU, Durante was targeted a good bit. If you look at his game log, you see a 0, but Skyler Howard targeted him. One could even argue two or three of the targets should have been touchdowns if he caught them. In a game there will be an increase in pass attempts, there is no way Durante puts up back-to-back goose eggs. Durante’s ceiling does not match his bargain basement price. He has a chance to greatly outperform his salary.
Tight End
Scott Orndoff, Pitt – JP Holtz is considered the number one tight end in this offense, but he splits time with Orndoff. I wouldn’t use him on DraftKings, but at 2K on FanDuel he allows you to upgrade at another position to make your lineup more unique. Orndoff has scored in three of five games this season, which is all you’re really looking for at that price. He’s a complete punt at the position and I wouldn’t expect much, but only spending 2K at the tight end position may be able to get you that extra stud at wide receiver.