CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday
By now, I’m sure you know the strategy involved in winning a cash game versus winning a tournament.
In a tournament, a few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd. In a cash game, you are trying to choose players that assure you some points or, in other words, are more predictable with a narrower range of outcomes.
Here are some cash game plays for the upcoming weekday slate and players to pivot to in FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments.
Cash Games
Quarterback
Jordan Stidham, Baylor
Plain and simple, the Baylor Bears have an incredible system and I have faith they can plug and play whoever at quarterback and that player can be successful. Stidham has all the ability to have a big game here against a Kansas State defense that ranks 110th against the pass. They’ve been absolutely lit up by good passing offenses through the air. Additionally, they’ve been decent against the run. Some may be looking at this game and thinking it’s a “Shock Linwood game” with the injury to Russell. I highly doubt Art Briles will change his offensive identity just because Russell is down. It’s not in his DNA to run the ball a disproportionate amount. Stidham is pricey on both sites, so if you’re not confident that he can get it done in his first start as a freshman, I’d tell you to look elsewhere. Personally, I’m going to battle with him.
Zach Terrell, Western Michigan
The “V” word victimized Terrell during last week’s midweek slate. Old man variance reared his ugly head and Western Michigan’s running backs gobbled up all the touchdowns in a game they scored 58 points. Terrell had a few completions down to the goal line that just didn’t end up scoring, then the Broncos’ backs punched the ball in. If just two of those passes ended up in the end zone, Terrell would probably be about 1K higher on both sites. With weapons like Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis facing the 118th ranked Ball State pass defense, I’ll take a chance that Terrell converts a few of those throws to touchdowns this week. Before last week, Terrell had three straight games with at least three touchdowns. On one quarterback sites, I still prefer Stidham by a slim margin, but Terrell should get his this week.
Taylor Lamb, Appalachian State
Lamb faces off against an Arkansas State defense that cedes more yards through the air than on the ground. He also has the ability to use his legs if the defense is keying on the App State running backs. The Mountaineers have the second highest total on the board with a projection of around five touchdowns. While Marcus Cox and his backfield mates could score on the ground a few times, I have a difficult time seeing App State reach that total without Taylor Lamb having a respectable fantasy day. Believe it or not, a player’s bottom line isn’t the only item I consider when choosing cash game versus tournament game players. I think many will open game logs and see Lamb’s last month of games being very solid performances and slot him in. With that being the case, I like Lamb enough for his projected ownership to push him into the cash game play territory for me. Arkansas State has been very vulnerable to running quarterbacks, despite being tough against the run. Jalen Nixon, among others, have had great success pulling the ball down and getting the job done against them. Lamb could replicate that success easily.
Running Backs
Shock Linwood, Baylor
Conventional thinking would lead one to believe that Linwood is in line for an uptick in production with one of the most prolific quarterbacks of the season on the shelf for the rest of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case and Linwood gets a few more carries, but Baylor isn’t going to go into a shell all of the sudden and turn into Wisconsin. Briles believes in his system and I think Stidham will throw the ball somewhere in the ballpark of where they are now. What I don’t think you’ll see is Stidham running the ball too much. Not because he can’t, but because the Bears can’t afford to be playing with their 3rd-string quarterback while they are making a push for the College Football Playoffs. So those carries that Russell yanked the ball out of Linwood’s belly and took it himself will probably just end up going to Linwood. In addition, the threats that Baylor has on the outside won’t allow K-State to stack the box. Linwood has performed admirably so far this season, so I see no reason to start fading him now.
Jamauri Bogan, Western Michigan
Bogan is a great way to get a piece of this Western Michigan team that boasts an implied score of 38 points. Since Bogan’s carries have been increased, he has produced terrifically for WMU. Bogan is definitely touchdown dependent as he’s only eclipsed the 100-yard mark once this season, but his touchdowns have steadily risen over the past month. Last week’s box score was somewhat fluky for Bogan as I explained in Zach Terrell’s write-up. WMU found themselves on the goal line more than usual, allowing Bogan to punch in four touchdowns. I don’t expect that big of a game from Bogan again, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished with 80 yards and two touchdowns in this game, which is plenty of fantasy points for his price on FanDuel and DraftKings. There is some risk here because if Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis break the tackles they didn’t last week, they score the touchdowns and Bogan does not, but there is just no one like a Shaq Vann from last week that I feel comfortable with at a cheap price.
Martez Waller, Fresno State
As I mentioned previously, there really isn’t a “cash game” running back that I like below Bogan, but with the way salary sets up, especially on DraftKings, you’re going to have to roster players that you don’t love. Fresno State has won two games this season, and pretty hasn’t even competed in the other six. In those two games they came out on top, Waller totaled 265 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Fresno State is only a four-point underdog this week against Nevada, so my hope is that the game remains close and Waller is used heavily. Even if he isn’t he does catch passes which will raise his floor. This isn’t a cash game play I’m thrilled about, but on this slate you have give in somewhere. This applies more so to DraftKings, FanDuel is tighter than usual, but we can fill out a squad without cringing too much.
Wide Receiver
Corey Coleman, Baylor
I’m not afraid of the change at quarterback at all, especially for Coleman. While Coleman has been a deep threat this year, he also runs a multitude of other routes including smoke screens, hitches, outs, slants, and comebacks, all routes that can be used to ease Stidham into the starting role in the first week. I imagine they’ll let Stidham take shots down field, but there will probably be a bunch more slants and screens to Coleman, hoping he uses his ability after the catch to run by defenders. The bottom line is the are going to get Corey Coleman the ball, whether they keep their attack similar to the one they used with Russell, or get Coleman the ball quicker and let him do the rest. Last week when Stidham entered the game for Russell, he immediately threw a touchdown pass to Coleman. I’m not sure we see much of a drop-off in production with Coleman at all.
Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan
Before last week’s game against Eastern Michigan, Braverman either recorded double-digit catches, 100 yards, multiple touchdowns or all three in every game this season. Braverman didn’t live up to expectations, but I highly doubt that he’ll have a repeat poor performance. Zach Terrell only attempted 23 passes and the Broncos opted for rushing plays inside the red zone. There were a few receptions that could have arguably gone for touchdowns but were saved by tackles. Braverman is a great possession receiver, he runs all the short-to-intermediate stuff that requires precision route-running. Braverman’s price is substantially lower than Coleman’s on both sites, which makes the decision difficult. If they were near the same price I would obviously opt for Coleman, but since you can upgrade basically $1,000 somewhere else by rostering Braverman, I think that strategy has merit.
Jordan Williams, Ball State
Williams hasn’t caught less than six receptions in the last six weeks, that’s pretty impressive. He’s your typical high floor player. Williams leads Ball State with 58 receptions and 753 yards this season, which is good for an average of 6.4 receptions and 83 yards per game. Add a touchdown to those averages and you have a respectable day. Ball State you should be trailing in this game and need to play catch up, so I could see Williams racking up receptions in garbage time. I’m not sure what more you can ask for out of Williams than what he has already shown us. He has been piling up receptions game after game which should continue this week as well.
Antwan Dixon, Kent State
There are definitely better options a little more expensive than Dixon, like McKissic, Richardson, and Henderson, but as I’ve been preaching here, you need to roster near minimum guys to fill out your lineups, especially on DraftKings. Dixon catches passes and receives carries in this offense and has the ability to break off a big play every time he touches the ball. In cash we’re just looking for about 12 fantasy points out of him which he’s hit basically three out of five games played. The only game he really got shut down in was against Toledo, a pretty stout defense. He should be able to get enough production, while providing extra cap space in other spots.
Tournaments
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
You’re looking for guaranteed production when you select your cash game quarterbacks. I like to ask myself the question, is there any way that said player gravely underperforms? Sometimes game flow can have an adverse impact on a quarterback’s production when the run game is called upon very early in a blowout. Other times, a team attacks their opponents weakness, which isn’t exactly playing to their strengths, so they have to change their identity a little bit. We saw this with Baker Mayfield when Stoops went extremely run heavy against Texas Tech. Prescott runs and throws the ball and he’s basically the entire offense. If MSU scores an offensive touchdown, Dak will either be throwing it or scoring it. However, I’m not sure how much the Bulldogs will be scoring against a very stingy Missouri defense. The Tigers haven’t played an offense or a quarterback like Dak this year, so this could be a big performance for Prescott in a hyped-up rivalry game. Either way, I’d rather Stidham in cash because I think he’ll be owned more heavily and his matchup is much easier.
Riley Neal, Ball State
The flow of this game should work in Neal’s favor this week as Western Michigan currently projects to win this game 38-24. Neal has shown the ability to throw for gobs of yardage when the game requires its. Against Northern Illinois, Ball State played catch up late which resulted in Neal finishing with 394 yards and four touchdowns. Over his last four games, Neal has averaged over 40 attempts per game, the touchdowns just haven’t been there in some games. Neal isn’t exactly the “safe” play you’d like from a cash game QB, but there aren’t any low-priced players that have a floor I’m comfortable with. There is a real chance he goes over 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns with Ball State trailing in the second half, which makes him an acceptable QB2. I’ll designate him as a tournament play because he has that wide range of outcomes that scares me stiff to put him in a cash lineup.
Kilton Anderson, Fresno State
I’m not going to act like I expect Anderson to have a monster fantasy day here. This game is projected to be pretty close so that helps Anderson in a few ways. If the game goes according to implications and Anderson and the Bulldogs are within a score the entire game, Anderson will be able to run a bit more on designed calls. That’s essentially where his value is, his feet. He has one game this year where he went off, a 78-yard, two touchdown rushing performance against UNLV. So basically he’s 1-for-3 in meeting value in games he’s started. If you’re looking for a lower owned play that may get you a decent amount of points per dollar, you can’t beat Anderson’s price. You can work in more studs at other positions as well. This is really only a DraftKings play as I don’t think you need to dip this low for your one quarterback play on FanDuel.
Running Back
Marcus Cox, Appalachian State
If you’re going to pay up for a quarterback like Dak or Stidham, you may not be able to squeeze Linwood in your lineup when all is said and done. The Mountaineers rank 18th in the nation in rushing, thanks in large part to Cox’s 917 rushing yards on the season. Cox has either had 100 yards, two touchdowns, or both in all but one game this season. He’s averaging over 20 carries, 100 yards, and just under one touchdown per game. This is a game that I feel Taylor Lamb will have a lot of success, but quarterback and running back success are not mutually exclusive in this case. There will be enough opportunities for both Lamb and Cox to do damage against an Arkansas State team that has allowed, but the matchup definitely has me favoring Lamb over Cox in cash games. I think Cox could have a big game this week, but it’s not the likely outcome given Arkansas State’s history of defending the run and the pass this season.
Jordan Johnson, Buffalo
Anthone Taylor has been “re-listed” on Buffalo’s two-deep depth chart which means we should see at least a little bit of him this week against Kent. However, I can’t imagine they would give him the lion’s share of the carries in his first week back to being in the full-time rotation, especially with the way Jordan Johnson has been running the ball the last two games. I’d expect Johnson to again get 20+ carries and have some success against Kent, but the fact that Taylor is healthy enough to be listed on the two-deep for this game makes Johnson a tournament play for me. I’d rather spend up at wide receiver where I know the players will be getting the targets and yards rather than have Johnson and Taylor end up cannibalizing each other’s value. If Johnson does continue to out-snap Taylor, he could have a really nice game, but I’m not entirely sure of how the carries will be split.
James Butler / Don Jackson, Nevada
The Fresno State Bulldogs rank 117th in rush defense this season and haven’t been able to stop teams from running the ball right down their throats. I think Butler has taken the reigns of the lead back role, outperforming Jackson for the most part throughout the season. The issue with these two, which is the issue with all players that I recommend for GPPs and not cash games, is their inconsistency. Oddly enough, Butler and Jackson don’t alternate having good and bad games, they have both been either productive or unproductive in the SAME games. If you can get Butler, I think he has the better chance to have a day here, but Jackson is doable if you can’t afford Butler. The price disparity is much greater on Fanduel, where Butler may be too expensive, but he’s affordable on DraftKings.
Raekwon James, Kent State
The game flow destroyed James’ value in his last outing against Bowling Green. James had taken over the lead back role and looked to be in for significant carries, but Bowling Green shot out to a big lead and Kent State abandoned the run. I doubt that Buffalo will be able to put the same beating on Kent this week, so the run game should be a factor for most of the game. The fact that James didn’t catch many passes was an odd occurrence since he is usually targeted often. If James is involved like he was against UMass, he could end up blowing up his value. In that game he racked up 28 touches, including eight receptions on his way to 141 total yards. He’s a tournament play only due to the volatility, but if the opportunity is there he should seize it.
Wide Receiver
Corey Davis, Western Michigan
Basically, we are in the same boat as last week. We went with Braverman as a cash game play and Davis as a GPP option. Davis worked out last week for his price, but obviously Braverman let us down. This week we’ll go back to the well with Davis being more of a big play threat than the possession receiver, Braverman. Davis hasn’t gone over 100 yards AND scored a touchdown since week three. I think this is a great spot for him to accomplish both of those feats, which would make him a great option in tournaments. Braverman is still safer because of the volume of targets he gets in the Western Michigan offense.
De’Runnya Wilson, Mississippi State
Wilson is your typical all or nothing receiver this year. He either has two receptions for fifty yards or he racks up eight catches, 80 yards, and a touchdown. There isn’t many in between games for “Bear” Wilson. The matchup isn’t great this week, but Dak and Wilson can definitely overcome the road game at Missouri. One of Bear’s best games this year came against the best defense they’ve played in LSU, in that game he grabbed eight receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown. I think pairing De’Runnya and Dak in a tournament lineup provides for a ton of potential fantasy points with a stack that I project to be lower owned than Stidham/Terrell and their respective receivers.
Ron Willoughby, Buffalo
In terms of full-PPR scoring, Willoughby has turned in 20+ fantasy point performances in half of his appearances this season and 13 or less in the other half. Willoughby has transformed this season from a volume reception player in the first half to a touchdown-dependent receiver in the second half as well. Either way, Willoughby has the skill, along with the quarterback to be very productive against a Kent State pass defense that ranks a beatable 53rd in the nation. There’s no doubt Buffalo will attempt to establish their running backs Johnson and Taylor throughout the game, but when that sucks the Kent defense up to the line of scrimmage, hopefully, Willoughby can beat them deep.
Jerico Richardson, Nevada
Richardson had a string of productive fantasy outings throughout October, but they were sandwiched between a lot of mediocrity. The problem is Nevada doesn’t have a prolific passing attack and they feature the run before they lean on their quarterback and receivers. In that three game stretch I eluded to, Richardson scored a touchdown in each of those games as well as averaged just under eight receptions and 96 yards. If you don’t have the cap space for Richardson at the end of your roster building, Hasaan Henderson is basically in the same boat here as he could just as easily be the receiver that goes off for the Wolfpack.
Tight End
Matt Weiser, Buffalo
I like Weiser on FanDuel because he’s not the top-priced option, which I thought he would be. Weiser is heavily involved in the offense and has even recorded a 10-reception game this year. So it’s somewhat of a no-brainer, especially when you realize his floor is about four catches and forty yards. Gus Walley is the only true punt on the slate that has a chance to be productive in my opinion, but we aren’t exactly sure if he’ll be involved in the game plan at all this week. I think we have to sacrifice some salary here on FanDuel to secure some points out of our tight end position. I’d advise going with Weiser in tournaments too since he is pretty safe, but also possesses big game ability.
Chad Olsen, Fresno State
We may as call Olsen “Mr. Punt”. His salary is rarely above minimum and he has been getting some work this year. All you really need out of him is a touchdown, which we got last week out of our tight end punt. Olsen has racked up half his fantasy points in one game this year, a two touchdown performance against UNLV. In a tournament, go ahead and completely punt tight end on FanDuel if you can get an upgrade somewhere if it’s a player you are set on rostering.