CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday
This article should get you geared up to create some well-constructed tournament lineups. By now, I’m sure you know that winning a tournament takes a little bit more than just choosing your favorite players on the slate. A few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd.
The one thing that I want to make very clear about this article is the fact that you should NOT use it to build an entire team. Virtually every player I will discuss here is going to be a pivot from a similar salaried, more popular option. In addition, providing a pivot for a highly owned player doesn’t mean I think they’ll play poorly. In fact, I’ll most likely own them in cash games. However, in tournaments, it’s important to find those two or three diamonds in the rough that allow you to gain an advantage over a large percentage of the field.
Brandon Doughty, QB Western Kentucky
Doughty is the most expensive quarterback on the board as the Hilltoppers return home to face Louisiana Tech. Doughty burned basically everyone in Week 1, by only posting a little over 200 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the other quarterbacks on the slate played considerably better. This should drive ownership down somewhat. Doughty came into the season as a highly regarded passer after lighting up the scoreboard and stat sheet last year. I think we have to chalk last week’s struggles up to it being the first game of the season on the road against an SEC defense playing at a slow pace. (albeit not a great one). Western Kentucky should have pass-catcher Jared Dangerfield closer to 100%, and if he is involved in the passing attack things should run much smoother. Overall, I trust that the passing game to rebound. Keep in mind this is a tournament play, which requires boom or bust roster construction. If there is any team in college football that can boom, it’s Doughty and his receivers.
Travis Wilson, QB Utah
Utah’s offense played well against the Wolverines last Thursday, yet Wilson comes in priced fairly low on both sites. This week in his price range is a player that grabbed the spotlight somewhat on Saturday. Jaquez Johnson became a trendy play amongst the DFS community for the early slate Saturday and he ended up producing a decent stat line. I think everyone will be on him again, despite a more difficult matchup with Miami. Wilson on the other hand didn’t do anything against Michigan that deserved a headline, so he’s flying under the radar. What I loved to see is Utah letting Wilson get out and run a little bit. Adding 50 yards and a touchdown on the ground made his fantasy day respectable. The Utes face a Utah State team whose defense looked exceptional against Southern Utah, but should have a more difficult time with Utah’s line and skill positions. I can see Wilson eclipsing value based on the fact he’s receiving more opportunities in the run game. The first priority for Utah State is going to be to contain Booker, which could lead to Wilson breaking off a few long runs or throws.
Joseph Yearby, RB Miami
Taking a glance at the Miami/Bethune-Cookman box score isn’t going to provide much clarity of the Hurricane’s running back situation. Basically, the stable of backs were given a fair share of carries resulting in similar stat lines for all. Walton is an astonishing $3,000 cheaper than Yearby on DraftKings, which is going to really impact each player’s ownership. However, last week we saw what can be done to FAU on the ground when D’Angelo Brewer and Zack Langer combined for 181 yards and three touchdowns. This week in a game that should be more competitive, I’ll take a chance that Al Golden commits to his more experienced runner to get the job done. Walton undoubtedly has a great chance to make value, but rostering Joseph Yearby if he goes off this week will pay higher dividends to his low ownership.
Devontae Booker, RB Utah (FanDuel)
As you can probably tell, by “Playing the Percentages”, we’re trying to roster football players that have the ability to produce, but may not look enticing to the untrained on due to recency bias or bad matchup. Well, on FanDuel Booker is more expensive than two really good backs this week in Kenneth Dixon and Leon Allen. Dixon had a monster game against Southern, while Allen had a similar game to Booker. When actually looking at the matchups for each of the top three backs, I think Booker has just as good a chance to produce a high fantasy output as the other two backs. Booker is a talented runner for a team that’s projected to score about 30 points. So despite a supposed difficult defensive matchup, the Utes should still be able to get four touchdowns on the board. It’s a safe bet that Booker will be responsible for at least one of those scores.
Leon Allen, RB Western Kentucky (DraftKings)
Conversely, on DraftKings Allen is more expensive than Booker, which in a way makes sense because Allen’s value is derived largely from his role in the passing game. Booker catches passes as well, but he’s a more talented runner than Allen. I’d have to imagine that players will either be paying all the way up for Dixon on DraftKings or if they come down into the 9K range for their running back they are going to go with Booker since he had a better Week 1 and is more highly touted. In a shootout, which this is projected to be a very close 60 point game, the Hilltoppers will most certainly be dumping the ball off as per the usual to Allen. I feel as though the pace will favor Western Kentucky far better this week than against Vandy. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Allen scores multiple touchdowns through the air and on the ground in this one.
Jared Dangerfield, WR Western Kentucky
According to Western Kentucky’s head coach, Jeff Brohm, Dangerfield is back atop the depth chart for week two after being extremely limited in week one. The good thing about this situation is you literally have to search for the WKU press conference and read it to find that out, so not many people will be aware that he was limited or is scheduled to return this week. Dangerfield has that big shiny red Q next to his name on all sites which should go along way in making sure not many people roster him. DFS players don’t like to take a chance, rightfully so, on a player that may not be 100% or whose impact on the game may be hindered by a lingering injury. Pay close attention to reports near game time, because if he does play a larger role, a WKU stack including Doughty and Dangerfield could be the ticket to a GPP win. Dangerfield led the Hilltoppers last year in receiving. His absence may be somewhat of the reason they struggled to get things going against Vanderbilt. In any event, Dangerfield a red zone threat that Doughty targets near the goal line. If he’s on the field Thursday, he’s a solid GPP play.
Kalib Woods, WR Florida Atlantic
Despite Jenson Stoshak having the best game of all FAU receivers, Kalib Woods was targeted often and was responsible for greater than 20% of FAU’s pass completions in Week 1. Game script dictates that FAU will be trailing by a few scores in this game against Miami, unlike last week when they kept the game close with Tulsa for pretty much the entire contest. I would guess that Jaquez Johnson will have to throw the ball a bit more than he did last week and FAU’s offensive play calling is going to shift away from the run in the second half as they attempt to play catch up with the Hurricanes. If the script goes according to this assumption, Woods will see an increase in targets. The great thing about the FAU receiver situation is that Stoshak is affordable on both sites, therefore players will not be driven off an expensive Stoshak down to Woods, even if they feel as though the FAU passing game should be targeted.
Wyatt Houston, WR/TE Utah State
If you aren’t familiar with Utah State’s current situation, their pass-catchers have been decimated by misconduct to the point that they don’t have many options to throw the ball to on Saturday. Wide receivers JoJo Natson (dismissed) and Hunter Sharp (suspended) will not be on the field to gobble up targets, so I’m going out on a very thin, unsturdy limb here and taking Utah State’s tight end Wyatt Houston. Jake Butt of Michigan had success against the Utes and I’m confident Wells will be able to pick up on that and possibly mirror some of the things Michigan did to get Butt open. Houston is near minimum, with less than stellar “box score appeal”, so I feel he won’t be highly owned at all this week.