CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday
This article should get you geared up to create some well-constructed tournament lineups. By now, I’m sure you know that winning a tournament takes a little bit more than just choosing your favorite players on the slate. A few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd.
The one thing that I want to make very clear about this article is the fact that you should NOT use it to build an entire team. Virtually every player I will discuss here is going to be a pivot from a similar salaried, more popular option. In addition, providing a pivot for a highly owned player doesn’t mean I think they’ll play poorly. In fact, I’ll most likely own them in cash games. However, in tournaments, it’s important to find those two or three diamonds in the rough that allow you to gain an advantage over a large percentage of the field.
Lamar Jordan, QB New Mexico
Jordan is a dual-threat quarterback that splits time with Austin Apodaca. Throughout the course of a New Mexico game Apodaca will be subbed in for a series here or there, but for the most part Jordan is the first-string quarterback. There aren’t a ton of options on the board, but Jordan has the potential for a big game if he can rip off a big run. The game script seems to be in his favor as well as a 20+ point underdog. New Mexico should throw the ball more often than usual to keep pace with the Sun Devils. Although, we’re taking Jordan for his running upside, dropping back a bunch doesn’t cannibalize his running opportunities because he’ll just take off if he can’t find a receiver. In his first two games he’s hit 3X value and 2X value, which isn’t terrible given the tight pricing we’ve had to begin the college football season. The added benefit of a near-minimum salaried player is the cap space it opens up more so than the points they’ll provide. If he can hit 3X again, he’ll have done his job by allowing us to roster a stud RB on this midweek slate.
Darius Wade, QB Boston College
In my opinion the top quarterbacks are going to have trouble reaching value on this slate, as they come in really high-priced. That’s why I’ll also take a stab at the very affordable Wade from BC. I think most will take a look at his box score and want nothing to do with him, but the box score doesn’t tell the whole story. Boston College hasn’t shown its hand yet. They ran the ball a ton in the first two blowout wins, not really opening up the playbook much at all because they didn’t need to. Obviously this is an advantage and most likely a calculated move by the Eagles since their Week 3 opponent may be their most difficult all year in Florida State. I’m sure they’ll come out and attempt to establish the run, but eventually Wade is going to have to cut the ball loose as the Noles lead builds. Wade has the ability to scramble as well, which is icing on the cake. South Florida had some success early against Florida State through the air, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wade has a manageable game.
Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State
I struggled initially to diagnose which top running back would be the least owned, which is what we want for a tournament. Both McNichols and Richard have pretty favorable matchups and they are both cheaper than Dalvin Cook, so I’d say if you’re paying up at RB in a tournament lineup, Dalvin Cook is your best bet. Through two weeks, he’s averaging 210 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. He has also passed the eye test early. If you watched Florida State’s game last week against South Florida, you witnessed him rip off a long touchdown run where he juked a defender, then bounced off another, and finally kicked it into overdrive and soared past everyone for a touchdown. I have a feeling when players see that Demario Richard has a juicy matchup, they’ll rather save a chunk of money than pay way up for Cook. The Seminoles should have this game somewhat in hand, so I think the game script favors Cook.
Kelsey Young, RB Boise State
On DraftKings the Boise State/Idaho State game is on the slate. This one will probably be a lopsided victory for the Broncos, therefore I’ll take a shot at a Boise reserve running back Kelsey Young. Young is a Stanford transfer who got the second most carries in Week 1. This is a pretty deep longshot, but he’s cheap on DraftKings. Kelsey Young will have to compete with Demas, and his brother Cory for second-team playing time, but all indications are that Kelsey will be the RB2. I can envision the Broncos taking it to Idaho State early and often which would mean Kelsey Young should get a solid number of carries as Boise blows the game open in the second half. Demas is the second highest priced Boise running back, so hopefully many people will be on him, not knowing that Kelsey should get more looks. He carried the ball 13 times in the Broncos Week 2 matchup with BYU, and while he only netter 3.7 yards per carry, that should improve this week with the weakened matchup. The play overall is risky and obviously only advised for tournaments.
Artavis Scott, WR Clemson
Honestly, this is one play I don’t care about the percentages. Last week, Charone Peake stole the Clemson wide receiver spotlight with Mike Williams on the shelf by catching four balls for 86 yards and two touchdowns. I’m not sure if players are going to be on Peake this week because he blew up last week or if they are going to stay with Scott because he’s the Tigers’ number one target. Either way, I’m going with Artavis here. He’s a great possession receiver that catches a high volume of passes. He basically had the same stat line the last two weeks, netting six receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown. The last two weeks, the Tigers were not tested defensively, so they spread the ball around to their receivers while mixing in the run game. And although Louisville hasn’t looked particularly great this season, they are going to undoubtedly prove to be a tougher defense than Appalachian State and Wofford. I think this week Clemson QB DeShaun Watson locks on to his favorite target for a high volume of receptions and probably a score. Snag Scott and even stack him with Watson in your tournament lineups because I think many lineups will try to save cap space by plugging in Peake.
D.J. Foster, WR Arizona State
Anyone who considers themselves a college football fan should know the name D.J. Foster. He’s a former passing-catching running back that has transitioned to a wide receiver. In Week 1, the Sun Devils didn’t unleash him too much, but we saw last week what he is capable of getting a bunch of work in both the run and pass game. Foster racked up 130 total yards and a touchdown on 18 touches. With ASU favored by three touchdowns, players will gravitate to lead back Demario Richard thinking he’ll be the go to option to seal the game in the second half. While that may be the case, Foster will will get his touches both through the air and on the ground for at least three quarters. His price, compared to his production thus far, is going to leave his ownership percentage fairly low, making him a top notch tournament play. New Mexico won’t be able to do much to stop ASU, so even if it is a blowout, Foster should be a big factor in getting them out to that early lead.
Ja’Quay Savage, WR Louisville
James Quick remains sidelined for the Cards this week against Clemson, which will result in increased targets for Savage as well as teammates TE Micky Crum and WR Jaylen Smith. Savage led the Cardinals in receptions, however Crum went over the 100-yard mark against Houston in Week 2. I think daily players will either be on Crum due to his big game or Smith because he’s the cheapest of the three. This play does have a caveat, however. I don’t mind rostering Louisville receivers, but it would be more beneficial if Lamar Jackson wasn’t the starter this week. The passing game really picked up when Kyle Bolin came in the game, so I’d be much more comfortable rostering a Louisville receiver if they start a traditional passer rather than mobile Jackson. The matchup with the Clemson defense presents an extremely difficult challenge as they have absolutely smothered both opponents so far this year, but that doesn’t necessarily sway me from Savage as the Cardinals should be throwing a bunch to keep pace with Clemson.
Ryan Izzo, TE Florida State
On sites in which you must roster a tight end, Micky Crum of Louisville and Kody Kohl of Arizona State will be the top two selections. So if we’re going contrarian, I like FSU tight end Ryan Izzo. He didn’t catch a pass last week against South Florida as the ‘Noles ran on 75% of their plays. The week prior however, Izzo did find the end zone. Basically, you’re punting tight end here and Izzo has the best chance of scoring out of all the tight ends not named Crum or Kohl. Izzo possesses very good blocking skill set, so he is not an exclusive passing down tight end, allowing him to be on the field when Golson checks out of run plays and into passing plays. This is the type of situation where if Izzo allows you to move up to a higher priced player at another position that you desperately want to roster, he’s worth a shot. But I wouldn’t move down to him if he doesn’t present meaningful salary relief.