CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday
By now, I’m sure you know the strategy involved in winning a cash game versus winning a tournament.
In a tournament, a few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd. In a cash game, you are trying to choose players that assure you some points or, in other words, are more predictable with a narrower range of outcomes.
Here are some cash game plays for the upcoming weekday slate and players to pivot to in FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments.
Cash Games
Quarterback
Cody Kessler, USC
The quarterback pool is a dry desert of uncertainty on this midweek slate, which means Cody Kessler will get the nod as the top cash game quarterback. He’s been a shell of his former self since turning in a terrible game against Washington. He did bounce back against Notre Dame the next game, but he hasn’t come close to the massive numbers he displayed over the first month. The upside is there because we’ve already seen what he’s capable of and maybe he’s had the excuse of not having the healthiest skill players as of late. Make no mistake about it Kessler and his corps of wideouts should be able to move the ball at will on a very underwhelming Colorado secondary. However, I could have said that about Cal and Arizona and they didn’t get much done in terms of meeting value in those games. It seems as though USC may dedicate themselves to the run more under the new regime, which will continue to hurt Kessler’s bottom line. He very well may have a 300-yard, three touchdown game against the Buffs, but as of late he’s struggled and isn’t consistent enough for me to be 100% confident in him. The slate has absolutely no locks at quarterback, though. With Kessler being the most talented quarterback with the highest team total, he’s the best chance for production.
Running Back
Travon McMillian, Virginia Tech
Elijah McGuire is in obvious choice for the top cash game play of this slate, especially on DraftKings with the PPR format. MacMillian may be just as enticing as McGuire, however. He’s taken the Hokies backfield by storm, racking up 60+ carries over the past two games. Virginia Tech seems to have committed to him, and I’ll roster anyone if you told me they are going to get 25 carries. McMillian faced two rather tough defenses the last two weeks in Duke and Boston College, but still came away with 247 yards and two touchdowns. His touches have shot up to the 30s after only getting a handful to begin the season. Georgia Tech has been beaten on the ground this year as well, giving up 170+ rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns per game. They also allow 4.8 yards per carry, making MacMillian a solid bet for 100 yards and a score.
Wide Receiver
Nelson Spruce, Colorado
Much like Elijah McGuire, Juju Smith-Schuster is somewhat of a no-brainer cash game play with the stats he’s been racking up this year. He does have a fracture in his hand, which is worth monitoring. Other than the obvious choices at the top, Nelson Spruce will be another solid cash game play this week. Spruce hasn’t been the reception hog this year that he was last year, mainly due to Shay Fields cutting into his workload. Fields either hasn’t played or has played sparingly the last few weeks, which has resulted in more targets for Spruce. Even if Fields gets on the field this week, I think they’ll be enough targets for both in a game against USC that Colorado should be throwing a lot to keep pace. Spruce has caught at least five passes in every game this year, which is what you like to see in a cash game play. With these two porous defenses squaring off against each other, targeting multiple players from this game, including Spruce, is an optimal strategy.
Isaiah Ford, Virginia Tech
Ford remains the top target for a Virginia Tech offense that does not feature many different options. It seems obvious, but targeting a player that gets a large percentage of his team’s targets, even if they don’t throw a ton, is a smart move. I’ve found that teams that throw a ton, but throw to seven different receivers that they cycle in, can be very tricky to target in DFS. Ford plays almost every snap and he’s the go-to receiver that gets a large share of targets. With traditional quarterback Michael Brewer returning, I would imagine that we’ll see an uptick in targets for Ford, which will replace errant throws and scrambles from Motley. There aren’t many sure things at receiver on this short slate, Spruce and Ford have the best floor outside of the top options.
Tight End
Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech
Michael Brewer returning to the lineup has Hodges licking his chops. Nothing proves that more than the Hokies meeting with Duke in which Hodges scored three touchdowns. If you aren’t sold on punting the position completely, Hodges needs to be in your lineup. I’m actually fine with getting Hodges into your lineup on sites that require a tight end and even in the flex on DraftKings. Some slates set up that there is a tight end enticing enough to downgrade at running back and wide receiver a little to fit him in, and I think Hodges is that type of player.
Tournament Pivot
Quarterback
Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech
The triple option creates a lot of uncertainty when it comes to fantasy football. Georgia Tech’s entire offense is based on reads. When Thomas snaps the ball he has keys to read that dictate where the ball goes. Basically, the defense will determine each player’s usage rate for Georgia Tech. That’s why you often see several different players having big games throughout the season for the Yellow Jackets. Earlier in the year, Patrick Skov had a few huge fantasy games, but teams have adjusted to the dive and he has been rather silent since. This makes Thomas the perfect GPP play. There are going to be games in which he hands the dive off or is forced to pitch the ball on the outside and won’t get many yards or scores. Then there will be games in which teams take away the dive or pitch and make Thomas beat them, that’s when Thomas has his big fantasy outings. In tournaments, Thomas always has the chance to do big things with his game-breaking speed. In addition to his ability to run the football, Thomas usually has great efficiency on his downfield passes because they are so few and far between, defenses aren’t prepared when it happens.
Running Back
Ronald Jones, USC
I can’t recommend Jones as a cash game play because of the three-headed monster of a timeshare he currently runs in. Jones has been the most productive of he, Davis, and Madden the last few weeks, but each player is getting around the same amount of touches and the trend of Jones being the top fantasy scorer may not continue this week. Colorado is currently giving up more than 200 yards rushing per game, so even if Davis or Madden cut into Jones’ production, he should be able to muster up at least 80 yards and a touchdown as a floor. However, if the Trojans decide to lean on him down the stretch to put the game out of reach, his ceiling is in the neighborhood of 150 yards and multiple touchdowns. With all three running backs in the mix, though, I just can’t pay that price and then watch Justin Davis or Tre Madden vulture production away from him. The other stat that scares me a little is Colorado’s touchdowns given up to opposing offenses. Despite giving up massive amounts of yards, it seems as though they tighten up near the goal line. The Buffaloes allow about a touchdown less per game than other teams giving up the same amount of yards.
Wide Receiver
Ricky Jeune, Georgia Tech
With Georgia Tech’s triple option attack, rostering Yellow Jacket wide receivers presents significant risk. However, their passing game becomes very efficient when they can get into a groove running the football. That happens because they suck the defense up to the line of scrimmage with run after run, leaving their receivers wide open downfield on the seldom throws they attempt. Jeune has been the beneficiary of those throws as of late. He has scored a touchdown or eclipsed 100 yards in four of his last six games. That doesn’t sound impressive for a collegiate level receiver when you have guys like Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson regularly racking up 200 yards and two touchdowns per week. However, you have to jump on a receiver producing like Jeune, who is underpriced due to the nature of his offense. You just have to be prepared for a bagel with the way Tech leans on the run.
Jamal Robinson, UL Lafayette
Robinson has a penchant for big games, making him a player I’ll be using in a few of my tournament lineups on this mid-week slate. Over the course of the last two seasons, Robinson has been pedestrian in eight of the twelve games he has played, only recording a few catches or sometimes nothing at all. In the other four games that he has produced, he has accumulated a total of 21 catches for 380 yards and seven touchdowns. Last season he battled injuries, but was able to turn in two 100-yard two touchdown games. This year has been more of the same, though he’s been on the field more often. The odds that Robinson puts up one of his patented 100-yard two touchdown performances this week against South Alabama is obviously slim, but he has definitely shown the ability to get the job done in spots. With UL Lafayette rotating in Nixon and Haack at quarterback it makes things even more unpredictable, but that should keep from being rostered too heavily.
Shay Fields, Colorado
If you can get confirmation, which is always difficult, that Shay Fields will dress and play in this game, I like him as a tournament play as well. It’s a bit of narrative street here for Fields in that he was originally committed to Ed Orgeron at USC, but switched his commitment to Colorado after they hired Sark, who didn’t return his phone calls. Fields has been a solid option for Liufau this entire year but is currently battling injuries. He’s definitely not cash game viable, but could be sneaky low-owned option if he plays and has that revenge fire in his eyes.
Tight End
Steve Irwin, Colorado
Irwin is the only viable minimum priced punt around the industry this week. He’s caught at least one pass in every game this year, but that’s about all he does. Despite not being an important piece of Colorado’s offense, Irwin may be targeted a few more times this week if Fields can’t play and they are trailing for most of the game. Contrary to putting Hodges in your lineup, Irwin allows you to create a much more palatable roster at the other three positions on FanDuel. It’s a scenario that you’ll have to weigh when you are constructing lineups.