CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday - Week 5
I decided to adjust the article a tad this week to also include the cash game plays I’m pivoting off of in addition to the tournament plays that I like. So, now this article should get you geared up to create some well-constructed cash game AND tournament lineups.
By now, I’m sure you know the strategy involved in winning a cash game versus winning a tournament. In a tournament, a few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd. In a cash game, you are trying to choose players that assure you some points or in other words are more predictable with a narrower range of outcomes.
Cash: QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis
Pivot: QB Brad Kaaya, Miami
Paxton Lynch made a name for himself in Week 3 with those that weren’t familiar with him as he was a chalk cash game play against a miserable Bowling Green defense. Lynch has been solid since Week 2, going over 350 yards in each of his last three games and throwing eight touchdowns in those three contests as well. Friday’s game against South Florida may be their toughest defensive test yet this season, but the Bulls haven’t been stout by any means. Most recently, they allowed 35 points to Maryland as Caleb Rowe threw for four touchdowns. Despite being the most expensive signal caller by a good bit on most sites, it’s for good reason. You have an offense that’s averaging around 50 points per week facing a defense that has allowed big days to lesser offenses. The oddsmakers have Memphis projected for five touchdowns this week, making Lynch a good bet for at least three total touchdowns. Lynch provides a high floor option for your cash games. I haven’t found a site where Lynch makes it impossible to build a cash lineup around him.
Kaaya’s box score stats and fantasy points per game numbers are skewed based on the quality of opponents he’s faced. In Miami’s first two tilts against Bethune-Cookman and Florida Atlantic, Kaaya looked polished but didn’t need to exert himself in earning the victories. In their Week 3 game against Nebraska, Miami needed to keep pace with a similarly talented team which required Kaaya to throw the ball 42 times. Those attempts resulted in 379 yards and two touchdowns in an overtime win. This week’s game against the Bearcats has Miami projected as 37-31 winners on the road. This game should be similar to Miami’s contest with Nebraska, a high-scoring back and forth affair. Kaaya may not throw 40-plus times, but the Canes will need him to put points on the board through the air to win in Cincinnati. Ownership this week should be heavier on Paxton Lynch, who has put up big numbers through four games, and Hayden Moore, the new Bearcats starter who had a gaudy stat line against Memphis last week.
Cash: RB D’Ernest Johnson, South Florida
Pivot: RB Mark Walton, Miami
On DraftKings, Johnson makes a solid play no matter the format. He’s the Bulls’ second-string running back behind Marlon Mack, but he’s also one of the top pass-catching options on the team. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is not the most polished passer, so he utilizes Johnson on passing downs as a safety valve. In a game with a high total against a team that can put up points by the boatload, the Bulls aren’t going to be able to run the ball as much as they’d like in this one. I can see Johnson getting a few touches on the ground, but most importantly he could see double-digit targets out of the backfield and lined up as a receiver in a game that USF frantically tries to keep pace with Memphis. He struggled to get involved in the offense against Maryland as did mostly everyone on South Florida, but in their first two games he scored four total touchdowns through the air. I think he’ll be in all my lineups on DraftKings as he frees up a ton of cap space and doesn’t require a ton of production to meet value. He’s more expensive on FanDuel, so it’s not exactly an auto-play.
Mark Walton also holds down the second spot on his team’s running back depth chart. Although he hasn’t really displayed his receiving skills to their fullest potential, that’s been what many deem his forte in the offense. Once again, the box score doesn’t tell the full story for a daily fantasy player. It looks like Walton was completely shut down in Miami’s overtime loss to the Cornhuskers, but he actually scored twice. Penalties negated a 20-yard touchdown run and 37-yard touchdown catch that could have made Walton’s stat line and current price inflated. Luckily, we get him at a pretty reasonable salary. Make no mistake, Joseph Yearby is the lead back in the Miami offense, but Walton has received double-digit touches in all of their games this season. When Miami travels to Cincinnati this week, oddsmakers think both teams will score 30-plus points. I have a feeling Walton’s ownership will not be very high with more people either on Yearby, Marlon Mack, or Adam Hine. I can see this being the week Walton flashes his pass-catching abilities and takes a screen to the house. Despite listing him as a tournament pivot, I don’t even mind him as a cash play if he fits well in your lineup.
Cash: WR Alex Chisum, Cincinnati
Pivot: WR Anthony Miller, Memphis
Chisum has been involved in the Cincinnati offense consistently over the month of September, pulling in 18 receptions for 212 yards and one touchdown. Last week, he was targeted on a bunch of short-to-intermediate routes against Memphis. This week he may get a bump in workload as deep threat Chris Moore and Johnny Holton are both listed as questionable to suit up for Cincy. If one or both can’t go, Chisum basically becomes a lock for cash games as he is inexpensive and won’t need very much to meet value. He’s a tall receiver that could see some end zone looks, as well. The Bearcats often run four wide receiver sets, so Chisum should see snaps and targets even if all players with questionable tags suit up, but I’d feel more comfortable if Cincy was missing depth.
Anthony Miller exploded last week for 156 yards and a touchdown. Miller accumulated more than half of his production on one reception, an 82-yard touchdown pass from Paxton Lynch. Miller saw a similar amount of targets in the first few weeks, the only difference last week came when Miller shook loose and darted down the sideline against Cincinnati. I wouldn’t doubt if Miller regresses to his median production of a few catches and no long touchdown. However, it’s also possible that the sophomore gained the trust of quarterback Paxton Lynch when he flashed his speed down the sideline. I think there are safer options in Miller’s price range on both sites because we can’t count on 80-yard touchdowns each week, but he’s revealed his capability of taking it to the house, so he’ll be on some tournament teams for me.
Cash: WR Noel Thomas, UConn
Pivot: WR Braxton Berrios, Miami
It’s always intelligent to target receivers that will be playing from behind, especially affordable receivers that are their team’s top targeted option. Noel Thomas averages five catches and 70 yards for the Huskies this season. He has a chance to eclipse both of those totals in a game which UConn finds themselves as big underdogs. BYU has allowed the top receiver in each of their first four games either score a touchdown, surpass 100 yards, or both. Though their first four opponents were of better quality than that of the UConn Huskies, wide receivers don’t necessarily have to be part of a high-scoring dynamic offense to put up fantasy points. The UConn offense may not be efficient on the road at BYU, but Thomas should so a bunch of targets in this game. He may only need to catch half the passes thrown his way to exceed value in this one.
Man, I’m excited about this one. One of Brad Kaaya’s best friends, Braxton Berrios returns to the Canes’ lineup this week against Cincinnati. Berrios suffered a knee injury basically on the first possession of the season and has been on the shelf ever since. Berrios is a small, quick receiver that makes his living on short-to-intermediate routes. Berrios reportedly has been cleared and feels 100 percent ready to go. His ownership should be super low as many will either not know of his existence or be too timid to use a receiver coming off a knee scare in his first game back. Stacy Coley, a wide receiver teammate of Berrios’, will miss the game with a hamstring injury, which should result in Berrios receiving a healthy amount of snaps and targets. I like pairing Kaaya and Berrios in tournaments as the combination has a ton of potential won’t be on many rosters. The Canes still have Scott and Waters hogging up targets, but I have a feeling Kaaya feels bad that Berrios was injured as a result of his poor throw and will attempt to make it up to him this week.