CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday - Week 6
By now, I’m sure you know the strategy involved in winning a cash game versus winning a tournament. In a tournament, a few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd. In a cash game, you are trying to choose players that assure you some points or in other words are more predictable with a narrower range of outcomes.
Here are some cash game plays for the upcoming weekday slate and players to pivot to in FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments.
Cash: QB Greg Ward Jr. (Houston) / QB Cody Kessler (USC)
Pivot: QB Matt Davis (SMU)
Greg Ward Jr. has been absolutely electrifying thus far in 2015. The Cougars have become a prolific offense with Ward at the helm. Ward is by no means a polished passer, but he makes a ton of plays. If you haven’t watched him in the past two years after his switch to quarterback, you are missing out. When things break down and he takes off, he’s as elusive a quarterback that I’ve ever seen, which is why he has amassed 470 yards and two touchdowns through four games. The matchup with SMU makes him even more palatable as the top quarterback on the slate. SMU has been torched by every decent team they’ve played. Most recently, they allowed East Carolina quarterback, James Summers, to throw and run for a total of four touchdowns. As expected, Seth Russell and Trevone Boykin had monster fantasy day against the Mustangs, too. The added bonus comes in the fact that SMU can put points on the board to keep the game somewhat within striking distance. SMU went score-for-score with Baylor in the first half before letting things slip away late in the second quarter. Against TCU, they only trailed by five points in the fourth quarter before TCU scored twice to seal it.
The game flow of this one should see Ward running and throwing to the final gun. I expect Ward to be the highest owned quarterback on both sites because the salaries are soft enough to get him in without much sacrifice.
Cody Kessler will push Ward Jr. for highest owned and for good reason. He’s a lot cheaper than Ward on both sites, so some may chose to save over $1,000 to take a QB in Kessler that has been just as spectacular as Ward. Aside from allowing 340 yards to Jared Goff, the Huskies’ defense has been decent against passing attacks. Admittedly, Goff is really the only good quarterback they have faced. Kessler shouldn’t have a problem getting his on Thursday night. There is a little more variance involved with Kessler, which is why I’m leaning Ward if I can only choose one. Kessler doesn’t run the ball at all, so he’s more susceptible to a 250-yard, one-touchdown game that sees Tre Madden and Justin Davis rip off long runs or poach touchdowns from him at the goal line. Whereas Ward can not throw one pass and still wind up with 100 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Do I think Kessler plays that mediocre? No, but Ward is much safer. On DraftKings it’s not inconceivable to roster both with some of the value at the skill positions
Matt Davis is the obvious pivot here. He had a tough game against ECU last week, which may shift some players off him. It also helps that Ward and Kessler will be highly owned, so just by default his ownership will be lower than the top-tier quarterbacks. In reality he has just as much upside as both Ward and Kessler. Davis has gone over 100 yards rushing twice and has scored multiple touchdowns three times this season. He’s also found a reliable number-one receiver in Courtland Sutton. According to the bookmaker-implied score, Houston is projected as a 50-25 winner. Davis will be asked to scratch and claw to keep pace with Houston’s dynamic offense, which could result in a few turnovers, but also the increase in possessions and tendency to lean on Davis gives him a really high ceiling at what I expect to be a fairly low ownership percentage.
Cash: RB Matt Dayes (NC State)
Pivot: RB Tony Pittman (Marshall)
I’m sure you expected to see Kenneth Farrow here, and I wouldn’t fault you for rostering him, especially since his ownership should be fairly high. I’ve watched about ten Houston Cougar games the past two seasons and Farrow hasn’t impressed me much. Greg Ward eats into his production as well. Last week he saved face with two decently long TD runs. He failed to convert what seemed to be double-digit third and shorts against Tulsa, however. I’m just not bullish on the guy. However, Matt Dayes gets a ton of touches each week and will continue to do so with the dismissal of Shadrach Thornton. Dayes became a very popular play last week when most saw his fantasy point per game numbers after crushing some pretty awful competition throughout September. He struggled a bit with Louisville, but got into the endzone. While he didn’t meet value, his ownership and decent fantasy day didn’t crush anyone’s team either. This week he gets a Virginia Tech run defense that is much scarier in reputation than actual play. Tech’s defense hasn’t been superb this season. They’ve given up enough yards on the ground for me to feel comfortable that Dayes will be fine on Thursday. He gets work out of the backfield as well which makes him a safe play even if he doesn’t meet expectations on the ground.
Tony Pittman would be a cash game play for me all the way if I was assured that Devon Johnson and Remi Watson won’t suit up for this game. And by that I mean in street clothes or in their dorm rooms eating sausages. Marshall hasn’t been kind to fantasy owners as far as dressing players and not playing them or having players suit up and play out of nowhere. I’m only playing Pittman in cash games if Johnson is on the sideline. Pittman received 56 carries over the last two games which he turned into 100+ yards and scores in each game. This is going to be a tricky situation, so I’d advise you to NOT roster either of them on FanDuel just because you won’t be able to late swap. But I don’t mind paying attention to the situation and playing Pittman in cash if Johnson sits, but in tournaments you can attack it one of two ways. Roster Pittman despite Johnson suiting up and hope Pittman still gets bulk of carries. Or play Johnson in hopes most don’t late swap to him. If that’s too risky of a strategy for you, I’d suspect Farrow won’t be crazy high owned because players won’t want to roster him with Ward, so you could go that route. Or you can spend down for Ito Smith who has done a ton with minimal touches. The low number of touches and timeshare scare DFS players, but he can do a lot of damage on 10-12 touches.
Cash: WR Courtland Sutton (SMU)
Pivot: WR Adoree’ Jackson (USC)
Sutton will most likely draw William Jackson III, Houston’s top corner and a pro prospect, but I don’t think he’ll be able to completely shut Sutton down. SMU should end up throwing a ton in this game as I expect Houston to hold a lead throughout. As I mentioned previously, Sutton and Davis have developed chemistry throughout this season. Last week against ECU was the first game Sutton didn’t find the endzone. Through the first four weeks, Sutton had five touchdowns and two 100-yard receiving outings. There are a ton of options in Sutton’s price range on both sites, but he’s had a ton of buzz about him since his Week 1 two touchdown game against Baylor. With the increased target projection I expect Sutton to receive, coupled with his salary on each site, I think he’s a solid be to meet value.
Adoree’ Jackson is a two-way player that is only available on FanDuel, which hopefully is rectified in the near future. There’s nothing we can do about it this week, so on FanDuel only get Adoree’ in your tournament lineups. Jackson possesses a unique skill set that gives him the chance to score on any touch. In the Trojans’ last game against Arizona State, he flashed his ability to make defenders miss, particularly on a first quarter touchdown catch that went for 80 yards. Here is where research can hopefully get us an edge. When Steve Sarkisian had to answer questions about the involvement of Jackson on offense, he said it’s difficult to balance time between offense/defense. He then went on to say that when Kevon Seymour comes back from a knee injury, it will allow Adoree to get more snaps on offense. Guess who’s back this week? According to beat writer reports, Seymour will be ready for this week’s game against the Huskies. Whether he plays or not remains to be scene, but if he just gives Adoree’ a rest on one or two series, it could open the door for a few more touches. This is an obvious tournament play as his range of outcomes ranges from a goose egg to a couple long touchdowns.
Cash: WR/TE Jaylen Samuels (NC State)
Pivot: WR Casey Martin/Mike Thomas (Southern Miss)
The top two receivers on the slate, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demarcus Ayers, are great plays in any format, but we’re going to need a bunch of low-to-mid priced plays. So I’ll go with Jaylen Samuels here. Samuels is listed as a tight end on FanDuel and a WR on DraftKings. In reality, he’s a combo tight end/fullback that gets targets and carries. As the season progresses, Samuels is being used more as a pass-catcher. He started out the season scoring five rushing touchdowns in the first three games of the season and has since scored four receiving touchdowns for a total of nine scores. On FanDuel he’s by far the safest option a tight end for cash games. The prices are soft enough that you don’t need to completely punt at any position. On DraftKings, I don’t mind rostering him as a WR/Flex due to his involvement in the offense. He’s had at least four receptions and one touchdown in every game this season. I’m confident he’ll have a similar stat line this week with several receptions and hopefully a few carries.
Mike Thomas started the season by getting bangeg up and not doing much in the first three games of the year, but has exploded in his last two contests. That should make him a highly owned commodity and a good choice for cash games. But let us not forget the receiver that picked up his slack while he was ailing, Casey Martin. Martin has 5 touchdowns in his last three games, but took a back seat to Thomas last week. So we have Martin who is trending down and Thomas who is trending upward. On DraftKings, Martin costs more than Thomas so I imagine Martin will be way under owned in tournaments. On FanDuel, Thomas is more expensive so ownership will be closer there. Bottom line, both receivers make good plays, but their prices on each site dictate the game type they are most beneficial in. Thomas will be highly owned all over DraftKings, which makes him a great cash play and a great tournament fade. Martin will be under owned on DraftKings which makes him a great tournament play. Southern Miss is a lock for 30+ pass attempts so there should be enough targets for everyone.