CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday - Week 7
By now, I’m sure you know the strategy involved in winning a cash game versus winning a tournament.
In a tournament, a few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd. In a cash game, you are trying to choose players that assure you some points or in other words are more predictable with a narrower range of outcomes.
Here are some cash game plays for the upcoming weekday slate and players to pivot to in FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments.
Cash: QB Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky OR Greg Ward Jr., Houston
Pivot: QB Josh Rosen, UCLA
If you’ve been playing college fantasy football at any point over the last two years, I don’t have to explain to you who Brandon Doughty is. The Hilltoppers got off to a rough start in Week 1, only edging Vanderbilt 14-12. Since then Doughty has been on an absolute tear, averaging more than 400 yards a game and four touchdowns per game. Doughty is probably chomping at the bit since North Texas ranks 113th in passing yards allowed. He could potentially throw a touchdown pass on every other completion a la Seth Russell. Doughty and the Hilltoppers currently sit at 32-point favorites, and I’m not sure that’s high enough. I wouldn’t worry about the blowout factor in this game, however. Western Kentucky hasn’t hesitated to keep the first-string offense in the game in games that are out of hand. Last week against Middle Tennessee State, they didn’t replace Doughty until their final possession with only a few minutes left. In fact, he was still completing passes to Taywan Taylor with eight minutes remaining, leading by 27 points. With Greg Ward Jr. also on the midweek slate, Doughty isn’t a lock for your cash games, though. You’re probably going to have to make the decision of which to plug into your lineup up. I doubt you can fit both in on two quarterback sites, but it’s worth trying to finagle.
Greg Ward’s ceiling is definitely higher than Doughty’s, which is a direct result of his ability to run the football. Oddsmakers have projected Houston as a 17-point favorite with a 40-point team total; that’s a pretty solid situation for Ward. The game projects to be somewhat close, so as long as Tulane remains in striking distance, the Cougars will be letting Ward run and throw all game. I actually think Ward has a far greater range of outcomes than Doughty. Western Kentucky loves to throw the ball and while Wales or Ferby may sneak into the end zone once, Doughty is going to throw a few touchdowns no matter what. On the other hand, Kenneth Farrow can be a massive touchdown vulture, limiting Ward’s bottom line. With that said, I think Ward will do enough running the football to meet value in this one. He and Doughty are both great plays on this large midweek slate. I’ll split my cash lineups between the two most likely, and as I said previously will do my best to get them both in on two-QB sites, but I’m not sure that will be possible.
I think one of the lowest owned quarterbacks on the slate that has a chance to exceed value is Josh Rosen. Rosen himself has been up and down this season, but he has flashed the ability to have a big game. The matchup on the surface with Stanford seems daunting, but I think that may be a little deceiving. The Cardinal rank 45th against the pass this season, but have only faced one decent pocket passer. Cody Kessler threw for 270 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 3 matchup at USC. Other than that, Stanford has faced Clayton Thorson, Seth Collins, Jerrard Randall, and a carousel of Central Florida backups. I’d hope they’d be the number one passing defense in the country with that lineup of run-first quarterbacks. Additionally, they have limited running backs from having big days this season, and they’ve faced pretty good backs. I could see UCLA having success in the passing game against Stanford and Rosen putting up a solid stat line. Obviously this play comes with risk, which is why it’s a tournament only pivot. Basically, we don’t know how good Stanford’s pass defense can be since they have only faced one good pocket-passer and not fared well. I’ll take a chance that Rosen can have a decent day against the Cardinal.
Cash: RB Kenneth Farrow
Pivot: RB Peyton Barber
I’m admittedly not a fan of Kenneth Farrow. I don’t think he’s that great of a running back. This year alone I’ve probably seen him get stuffed for no gain or a loss more times than I’m comfortable with. He relies on touchdowns to meet value, which he has five of in the last two weeks. With Houston projected to score around six touchdowns this week, I think Farrow is a safe bet for two of them. In games that they’ve controlled, it seems the Cougars try to get everyone involved in the scoring. Farrow didn’t run well at all last week against SMU, yet they called numerous goalline runs for him to get his three scores. Many times the play called is a read option for Ward, and the defense is always going to keep someone home on the back end to take away Ward, so he gives Farrow the ball at the mesh point. Tulane has been thumped by every good team they’ve played. I expect Farrow to get his and he doesn’t have a back breaking price, which makes him a solid play.
Barber is coming off a five-touchdown game against San Jose State that speaks volumes about Coach Gus Malzahn’s trust in his quarterbacks. Barber has been given at least 23 carries and accumulated at least 115 yards in four of Auburn’s five games this season. Until last week against SJSU, Barber hadn’t had a big fantasy day. For his price, 100 yards and a touchdown just isn’t going to cut it. Barber’s value basically relies on how well Auburn as a whole moves the football. This year, they’ve struggled against good teams putting points on the board. So far this year, they have only scored 20 points against Jacksonville State in regulation, scored one touchdown against LSU’s first string, and were held to nine points against Mississippi State. Kentucky’s defense has been surprisingly good this season. When all these factors are weighed, Barber isn’t exactly enticing at his price on either site. His previous five touchdown game drove his price up a bit which I would think keep players off him. With Farrow’s Cougars in line to put up big offensive numbers, he’s going to be the higher owned cash game play. So, in tournaments there is definitely merit to going with Barber, who has shown, if only once, the ability to have a big game.
Cash: WR Taywan Taylor, Western Kentucky
Pivot: WR Jared Dangerfield, Western Kentucky
To this point in the season, Taywan Taylor has been uncoverable. The separation he creates makes him an easy target for quarterback Brandon Doughty. I’ve watched almost all of the Hilltoppers’ games this season and it seems that he’s always running free. He’s known for his big play ability, but I’ve also seen him run some great routes to get open on short-to-intermediate routes. Taylor has caught at least one touchdown pass in five straight games and has two multi-touchdown games as well. Against a terrible North Texas pass defense, he’s definitely going to get loose for at least one touchdown. Taylor is especially affordable on FanDuel, where all the wide receivers are priced reasonably. On DraftKings, it may be tougher to get him in your lineup, but he’s worth the price on each site.
Taylor’s counterpart Jared Dangerfield will probably be less owned because his stats aren’t as eye-popping. Dangerfield however came into the season banged up and slowly rounded into form over the first three weeks. Dangerfield broke out against Miami (OH) with 11 receptions for 148 yards and a touchdown. Since then he’s been heavily targeted by Doughty. Dangerfield’s brings a different skillset to the table than Taylor. Dangerfield is a large-framed red-zone target that sees more short yardage targets than Taylor. In fact, they love to run Dangerfield to the first down marker on hitch routes and basically post up his defender for a quick catch to keep the chains moving. With the success Taylor has been having getting behind defenses, paying extra attention to him would be a wise game plan for North Texas. If that happens, Dangerfield will benefit from increased looks and possibly a bigger fantasy day.
Cash: WR Shaq Washington, Cincinnati
Pivot: WR Thomas Sperbeck, Boise State
Shaq Washington checks a lot of the boxes we like in a cash game play for a wide receiver. He plays on a team that throws the ball often, he represents a large part of his team’s targets (23%), and he also leads his team in red-zone targets. In his last two outings, Washington has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark and has a combined 17 receptions. It seems as though he’s the overwhelming favorite target of backup quarterback Hayden Moore. Washington’s two games with Moore starting outpace his stats from the previous three games. Make no mistake, even if Gunner Kiel returns this week against BYU, Washington will see his targets. Isaiah Jones recent success against the Cougars shows they can be beat by that type of receiver. He presents a high-floor, especially on full point PPR sites.
Sperbeck has been great all year long, but much like Washington, has been even better with a backup quarterback. Since Brett Rypien entered the lineup, Sperbeck has gone over 100 yards in two of three games and has five receptions in all three. Last week against ECU, Sperbeck scored two touchdowns and almost set a career best for receiving yards. The matchup with Utah State isn’t great, as Utah State ranks 29th in pass defence, but Boise will test them through the air more so than any of their first five opponents. The reason I like Sperbeck a tad better as a tournament play is the Boise State running game. Jeremy McNichols is a talented back that the Broncos love to establish early. In certain games, the Boise running game just engulfs the defense and they don’t need to air it out much. Although that hasn’t been the case since Rypien took over, there’s definitely a chance McNichols vultures all the scores. I like stacking Rypien and Sperbeck in tournaments, but there are safer wide receivers for cash games.
Cash: WR Carlos Harris, North Texas
Pivot: WR Ricardo Louis, Auburn
It’s not a secret that North Texas is about to have the hammer dropped on them by Western Kentucky, which should allow for Carlos Harris to see a bunch of targets. North Texas should have more possessions than usual too, since the Hilltoppers’ will probably score in under three minutes each time they get the ball. Harris is the top target in the offense at a little over 20% of the targets. This season Harris is averaging seven receptions per game and hasn’t had less than five in any game. He may not be able to shake loose for long touchdowns in this one, but I expect him to possibly see a season high in targets, and opportunity is what you want to target in cash games. My hope is that North Texas doesn’t completely lay an egg and they are competitive and throwing for at least three quarters. That would help Western Kentucky players as well.
Ricardo Louis is certainly not a household name, but he may present significant value this week against Kentucky. As you’ve probably heard, Duke Williams was sent packing by the Tigers. Williams led all Tigers in targets, which opens a door for Louis. Auburn isn’t a prolific passing offense, but Louis now has to step up into the lead role and make plays when Auburn does throw the ball. In addition to targets, Louis also gets a few carries a game, usually on jet sweeps or end arounds. So, the run-heavy nature of the Tigers doesn’t destroy his value completely. Malzahn said in his press conference this week that he wants to increase the tempo of play, so we made see more plays run this week which is always a good thing. Louis is priced up a tad with the dismissal of Williams, so if you’re looking for an out right punt play from the Auburn receiving corps, Melvin Ray will see increased snaps and targets. Depending on the amount of cap space you have left, one of these receivers may have a big day due to an increased role.