CFB Playing the Percentages: Thursday/Friday - Week 8
By now, I’m sure you know the strategy involved in winning a cash game versus winning a tournament.
In a tournament, a few of the players you roster not only have to have big fantasy days, but they also need to have a lower ownership percentage to set you apart from the crowd. In a cash game, you are trying to choose players that assure you some points or in other words are more predictable with a narrower range of outcomes.
Here are some cash game plays for the upcoming weekday slate and players to pivot to in FanDuel and DraftKings tournaments.
Cash: QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis
Pivot: QB Dane Evans, Tulsa
Memphis hasn’t lost in a calendar year and the oddsmakers have this game projected as a 42-32 win to extend that streak. Paxton Lynch has been the driving force behind the offensive attack. Disregarding the first game of the season in which Lynch wasn’t asked to do much, he has eclipsed the 300-yard mark in every game. Lynch has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 2. This week in a matchup against Tulsa, Lynch faces a secondary that is very beatable and ranked at the bottom of the NCAA in passing yards allowed. I like targeting Lynch in cash because we know his team is going to score a ton of points and it’s also hard to get a piece of Memphis without rostering Lynch himself. Often times with a team that spreads the ball around and doesn’t have one or two defined roles on offense, the skill players on offense come with too much variance. Memphis is this type of team. We know Lynch is going to get a bunch of yards and some touchdowns, however it’s difficult to pinpoint the other beneficiaries on the Tigers because of their lack of a go-to weapon. They have a handful of receivers and tight ends that see targets and also a couple of backs that get involved, too. So the safest way to be apart of Memphis’ 42 point projection is to roster Paxton Lynch. The icing on the cake is the Memphis defense. Memphis hasn’t been great this year, especially against the pass, so Lynch should be needed for all four quarters to get a win against Tulsa.
Paxton Lynch will share the field with Dane Evans on Friday night. Evans came into the year with a good deal of fantasy buzz surrounding him. Tulsa hired Art Briles’ disciple Philip Montgomery at the end of last season. Montgomery brought the up-tempo spread attack to Tulsa which has brought an uptick to the Golden Hurricanes’ passing numbers. So far this season, Evans has at least 30 pass attempts in every game and has averaged 44 attempts in his last four. With Evans, the yards and attempts are guaranteed to be there. The touchdowns have been somewhat unpredictable this year because of Zach Langer. Langer is a bruising back that Tulsa loves to give carries in the red zone. In some games this year, Tulsa and Evans have moved the ball a bunch, but Langer ends up capping the drives with touchdown runs. This basically makes Evans a perfect tournament pivot. Many will look at the box score and see that Evans has only thrown three touchdowns in his last three games which will cause many to shy away from rostering him. Vegas has Tulsa pegged for 32 points in this 74-point shootout, which allows me to comfortably suggest Evans will have multiple touchdowns in this game. Memphis ranks 3rd to last in passing yards allowed, so Evans won’t face much resistance in throwing the ball up and down the field. Despite the loss of Keevan Lucas, Evans has enough playmakers in Keyarris Garrett, Josh Atkinson, and Justin Hobbs to help Evans produce this week.
Cash: RB Jahad Thomas, Temple
Pivot: RB Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego St.
Thomas is far and away the top running back on this midweek slate. The Temple offense runs through Thomas as he has seen an average of 24 attempts per game this season. Thomas also figures into the passing game, catching a couple balls per game to add to his bottom line. Thomas doesn’t need a big yardage day to have a productive fantasy day either. He has twice been held to under 70 yards rushing this year, but has still found the end zone and caught a few balls to salvage his day. His relatively high floor makes him a very safe cash game play on this slate. East Carolina hasn’t faced many talented runners this year, so their 89th ranked run defense remains someone untested by backs. Against BYU, they allowed Algernon Brown to run for 134 yards and three touchdowns. If Temple commits to the run as BYU did, which I assume they will, they can definitely impose their will and get a big day out of Thomas in both facets of the offense. The oddsmaker total for this game doesn’t make the game very enticing. However, Thomas represents a massive percentage of the Owls’ offense, so he should account for a good chunk of their 24-point total.
Donnel Pumphrey has a similar role to Jahad Thomas in the Aztecs’ offense. He gets a ton of carries and some targets out of the backfield each game. If Pumphrey’s matchup was a little better, I’d imagine his ownership would be fairly high, but he faces the Utah State 6th-ranked run defense. Utah State only faced one dominant running back this year in Devontae Booker. They held Booker to 3.9 yards per carry on 30 carries. Pumphrey has caught fire this last month rushing for 100 yards in four of his last five games with his most recent game against San Jose State being a season-high 207 total yards and two touchdowns. This is a game where I wouldn’t be surprised if Pumphrey has pedestrian numbers because Utah State bottles him up. But the matchup is the only factor that isn’t working in his favor. Pumphrey is leaned on as the cog of the Aztecs’ offense, receiving 20+ touches per game. He’s involved in both the run and the pass attacks. For a tournament pivot, the ceiling that he presents makes him a very intriguing option and the difficult matchup on paper should keep his ownership really low.
Cash: WR Josh Atkinson, Tulsa
Pivot: WR Mose Frazier, Memphis
Josh Atkinson has been automatic this season. Even before Keevan Lucas hit the shelf for the year, Lucas was hauling in multiple receptions in every game. Atkinson has over 100 yards in every game he has recorded a catch this season and is also averaging 7 catches per game in those five contests. As has been previously noted, this game between Memphis and Tulsa is going to be a shootout with a projected total of 74 points. Dane Evans will be slinging the ball over the field in the Hurricanes’ up-tempo spread attack. Atkinson has been a very reliable possession receiver working mostly the intermediate part of the field allowing him to rack up the fantasy points. This game should be no different as Memphis should be able to get out to a lead, which will lead to Tulsa playing catch up with a pass-heavy approach. This season, Memphis has been torched through the air and rank as the 3rd worst pass defense in the FBS. Tulsa’s number one receiver, Keyarris Garrett, has been seeing most of the attention, allowing Atkinson to beat one-on-one coverage pretty much every week. With Lucas out and Garrett being the focal point of most defenses, Atkinson has benefited.
Mose Frazier is a do it all skill player for Memphis. He mostly does his damage in the receiving game, but also sees carries and has scored two rushing touchdowns on the year. Frazier had a couple very poor games before going for 80 yards and a touchdown in his last outing against Ole Miss. That’s the risk you take with Memphis skill players as I eluded to earlier. Paxton Lynch spreads the ball around to the open receiver, he’s not the type of quarterback that locks onto a target and feeds that player no matter the coverage. However, Frazier is definitely the top option on the Tigers’ offense. With Memphis projected to score six touchdowns, I’d be very surprised if Mose Frazier doesn’t get in on the scoring action against an absolutely terrible Tulsa defense. Frazier possesses that patented wide range of outcomes we look for in a tournament play. The risk of him putting up a four point fantasy day drives ownership down, but his ability to have a big day makes him a worthwhile tournament play.
Cash: WR Thomas Duarte, UCLA
Pivot: WR Anthony Miller, Memphis
Duarte has steadily improved in the UCLA offense as the season has progressed. He has also developed chemistry with Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen. Specifically, Rosen looks for Duarte in the red zone, as evidenced by Duarte’s four touchdowns in his last three games. Jordan Payton remains the number one target in the offense, but Duarte is closing the gap and they throw the ball enough this year for multiple pass-catchers to get involved each week. The matchup this week is very favorable as Cal ranks 93rd in pass defense. They’ve been a tad stouter against the run, ranking 59th overall. I can see this game turning into a high-scoring, back and forth affair that enables Duarte to exceed value and set some season-high totals. Cal has surrendered 30 or more points to every team they’ve played except their Week 1 matchup with Grambling State. UCLA has given up 30 or more in their last three games as well. Duarte should be able to pull in at least five receptions and a touchdown, which makes him a solid cash play at his price around the industry.
A trend is developing here with Memphis wide receivers. One of them is going to have a monster day, but we just aren’t exactly sure who it’s going to be. Through six games, Miller has 25 receptions, 436 yards, and two touchdowns. However, 15/186/2 of that production has come in two of those six games. Basically, Miller either dominants or barely shows up. The good news is that those two monster games have come in Memphis’ last three, so it seems that it may have just been a slow start for Miller to begin the season. Last Week, Miller racked up 10 receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown against a pretty formidable foe in Ole Miss. I probably don’t have to tell you this for the third time in this article, but Memphis is going to score a slew of points against one of the softest defenses in the FBS. Miller hasn’t been consistent by any stretch, but he’s clearly capable of putting a big fantasy day together. Miller may be a more popular play than he should be in tournaments, but I’ll definitely have him and Frazier in my tournament lineups hoping for a blowup game from the Tigers.