Champions League Preview: Tuesday/Wednesday
Tuesday and Wednesday brings another Champions League slate at DraftKings, with a multitude of ways to go at midfield and attack that should determine GPP winners because of a very shallow pool at defender.
There’s not a lot of value in this slate at defense, with a real lack of sub $3k starters, much less outside backs. This will make lineup construction pretty difficult, especially with the use of a certain Portuguese attacker in white and purple. Let’s go over all four matches and the varied options at your disposal.
VfL Wolfsburg vs. RAA Gent, Tuesday
— Wolfsburg 3, Gent 2 in first leg —
Odds are heavily in favor of Wolfsburg advancing from this matchup into the quarterfinals, but the German side let Gent off the mat in the first leg after giving up two late goals. But the hosts only need to avoid a complete let to advance in this one. Gent since their loss at home have lost twice in three domestic games, so their form isn’t the best. On the other hand, Wolfsburg have their last two Bundesliga matches by 4-0 and 2-1 results.
To target options in this game, it’s hard to stray too far from a solid set of midfielders that remain solid values in the overall structure of salaries set up by DraftKings. Even with a couple of injury doubts in that number, the Tuesday kickoff allows us to make decisions on Julian Draxler ($4,800) and Danjiel Milicevic ($4,700), who are carrying knee and ankle injuries respectively. Value play Brecht Dejaegere ($3,000) also is a question mark with a hamstring injury. Draxler’s got goals in his last two matches while Andre Schurrle ($4,700) had a hat trick against Hannover last week. Add into the mix Daniel Caligiuri ($4,500) and Vierinha ($3,700), and Wolfsburg’s midfield are filled with viable options in this one. Other than Milicevic, we have Sven Kums ($3,700) and Thomas Foket ($3,400) both as value options with lower floors/ceilings than that teammate, but if you can’t find room to spend up to Wolfsburg or other options, they are there for you.
Schurrle might get the start up top if Max Kruse ($5,200) can’t go (hamstring); Kruse also scored this past weekend and is a nice contrarian play but must score in order to return value for you—he’s very goal dependent. Gent could start anyone from Laurent Depoitre ($4,000), Moses Simon ($3,800), Kalifa Coubaily ($3,400) or Simon Diedhiou (not in the DK player database). Odds are it’s probably Depoitre or Coubaily getting the call, and Gent will attack from the opening whistle—so it’s likely they’ll get a goal over the 90 or so minutes. Question is, who gets it—it’s much more likely to come from the midfield via Milicevic or Kums or another Gent option. I’d pass over going for any of the Gent forwards.
If you believe Gent are dead and buried on this road trip, locking up Wolfsburg keeper Koen Casteels ($4,200) might be your play in goal, but Casteels somewhat surprisingly is the most expensive keeper on the slate due to Wolfsburg being a heavy favorite against what is likely the weakest team left going into this round of games. However, with Gent going for goals a clean sheet might not be in the offing, and every salary dollar will be gold on this slate so I’d be looking elsewhere for my keeper. If you can fit them into your lineup structure, defenders Ricardo Rodriguez ($3,700) or Christian Trasch ($3,600) are strong plays. I’m not going near any Gent options at keeper or defender.
Real Madrid vs. Roma, Tuesday
— Real 2, Roma 0 in first leg —
It would be an upset of Lakers/Warriors proportions in order for Roma to advance after a two-goal loss at home to Madrid in the first leg. In fact, it’s hard not to target as many Merengues you can fit into your lineup in what could be a game that gets easily out of hand. All Madrid, all the time.
Of course, it starts with soccer DFS’ King Kong—Cristiano Ronaldo ($10,300). Ronaldo had a “off day” against Roma in the first leg, only scoring once with 21.5 points. Since then, he’s scored six goals in four matches, four of which came against Celta Vigo this past weekend. All of this was without Karim Benzema, who is injured and Christian Bale ($7,000) returning as a substitute this past weekend. Bale is expected to start against Roma with Ronaldo—but the third piece of the Madrid attack is up in the air. 18 year old Borja Mayoral started over the weekend in the win over Celta, but reports out of Madrid on Monday have Mayoral not included in the squad for Roma.
Zidane has several options—he could use Ronaldo or Bale centrally, or use any of Jese ($4,000) or Lucas Vazquez ($3,000) in that position as well. If Ronaldo or Bale are used as the central forward, James Rodriguez ($6,200), Isco ($4,500) or Mateo Kovacic ($3,200) could be used in the front three. Jese seems the most likely option as a straight swap for Benzema as a central striker, but as always, keep an eye on the starting lineup.
As for Madrid’s midfield options, James is a nice play, especially if he is used in the front three, but the salary might be difficult to fit in around Ronaldo when there are other midfield options with higher floors for lesser salaries. Elsewhere, Toni Kroos ($4,200) has a chance to grab an assist or two because of set piece duties and the overall strength of Madrid’s attack, but he remains a contrarian option or a piece of a Madrid stack that makes sense salary wise. Isco had a really nice game this weekend, and depending on him getting a start and what role he’s given, could be a really strong play.
In the back, I really like Keylor Navas ($3,800) on this slate because of the strong win possibility and Roma being kept off the board. Roma will attack, especially with the news on Monday that the visitors will start four attacking midfielders/strikers—so Navas should see some action. That allows Navas an even higher ceiling, especially if they jump on Roma early and kill off any hopes the visitors might have. Defenders Marcelo ($4,700) and Dani Carvajal ($3,900) are of course highly viable options, but for those salaries, it’s hard fitting them into a Ronaldo lineup.
For Roma, it’s attackers and not much else in the way of suggestions on this slate. I’m staying far away from Wojciecch Szczesny in net for the visitors, and Lucas Digne ($3,700) is way too pricey in this matchup and I’ll be surprised if you get 2x from the left back. The front four are options as a whole, some more than others, and they are likely to be low owned. Roma is coming into this match on the wings of a strong 4-1 win at home against Fiorentina on Friday, and to me it’s a bit odd that Roma manager Luciano Spalletti has announced he’ll tinker from that lineup and start Edin Dzeko ($5,800) in front of the threesome of Stephan El Shaarawy ($5,400), Mohammed Salah ($3,800) and Diego Perotti ($3,400). All three scored in the win over Fiorentina; Salah and Perotti are midfielders at DK.
In the first leg, Spalletti did not start Dzeko and Roma had a decent showing despite the scoreline. On the road, needing goals, he’ll use the larger Dzeko and hope to use him to hold the ball up in order for the other three noted to play off the Bosnian on counterattacks. Salah is the best combination of price and form, and El Shaarawy if lesser priced would be a really nice play. Perrotti has less upside than Salah but still might grab a goal in this one—any of the four could, in theory. Game flow will speak to a lot of what output Roma attackers can give you. If Madrid goes up early and Roma pack it in, only a fluke goal will give you return. If Roma can impose their game on Madrid, put their defense under pressure and avoid giving up goals on their end, the more chances Roma’s attackers will get. Lastly, you have Miralem Pjanic ($5,900)—the Bosnian used to be a darling of DFS circles, but you need corners and free kicks for him to return that 3-5x value you’d hope for in a GPP winning lineup. I can’t see many dead ball chances for Pjanic to get goals and assists from, and if you don’t get those chances from corners and crosses from the run of play, the floor goes lower and lower.
Zenit St. Petersburg vs. Benfica, Wednesday
— Benfica 1, Zenit 0 in first leg —
Possibly the most unknown of the four matches, Benfica take a slim lead to Russia and have a host of injured/suspended players that will open up a bit of value combined with some holes that Zenit can attack at home.
Benfica will be without regular keeper Julio Cesar, who’s out with a thigh injury. 22 year old backup Ederson Moraes ($3,000) started this past weekend as Benfica beat Sporting Lisbon 1-0 away in a pretty solid performance in a pressure filled scenario—Russia, Zenit and the Champions League is perhaps a minor step down from Portugal’s biggest domestic showdown. His opposite Juri Lodygin ($3,900) is a strong home favorite against a team that does have a strong attack, but it’s backline has been hit with injuries and likely will be without potential starters Luisao, Jardel and Andre Almeida. Lodygin will be without suspended left back Domenico Criscito, for the record, so Zenit doesn’t have a full strength squad either.
I’d avoid the defender pool from this match, for the most part, even with the absences mentioned. Eliseu ($3,400) is a solid but unspectacular choice, and is a bit overpriced for a lack of a high-end ceiling at that figure. Unfortunately, youth teamer Victor Nilson-Lindelof isn’t in the player pool as the potential starter at left back for Benfica—he’d be an excellent value option, but alas. Zenit’s pair of Alexander Anyukov ($2,700) and midfielder Yuri Zhirkov ($4,000) are not DFS friendly options, but Anyukov might be a necessity because of that sub-$3k salary.
Midfield has stud Nicolas Gaitan ($6,000) still underpriced for the return output that’s likely to follow. Gaitan should be heavily owned across the board, is a certain cash lineup option and only to be faded if you’re being highly contraian. Oleg Shatov ($4,700) was highly disappointing in the first leg, and if he starts the winger will have a mostly defensive position to cover Zenit’s back four. More intriguing is Axel Witsel ($3,800), who should have a much more offensive role (albeit centrally) in this match. His only negative mark on the ledger is a lack of any free kick responsibilities. Benfica’s pair of central midfielders are value options; Andreas Samaris ($3,000) and Renato Sanches ($2,600) are talented options that aren’t likely to hit double digits unless they find the scoresheet, but could collect 2-3x value from secondary scoring like fouls draw, takeaways and interceptions.
For me, next to Bale and Ronaldo my favorite forward play on this slate is Hulk ($7,800). A patchwork defense, free kick responsibility and a complete desire to shoot on sight for the Brazilian should serve him well on Wednesday. Teammates Artem Dzyuba ($5,800) and Danny ($4,700) should both be considered, especially if you’re constructing a mini-Zenit stack. Dzyuba’s salary is a tricky fit otherwise, but as Zenit’s lead striker he should eat if Zenit has success going forward. A goal or two isn’t out of the question.
As for Benfica, you have three options—lead dogs Jonas ($6,600) and Kostas Mitroglou ($4,600) should be low owned but will return value if they score. Jonas has penalty duties, for what it’s worth, Mitroglou got the winner against Sporting, and is much more easily fit into lineups as a second forward alongside a bigger name. But he broke a lot of lineups last month in the first leg and may not go a full 90. Whomever starts between Pizzi ($3,700) and Goncalo Guedes ($4,000) on the wing opposite Gaitan should have decent ownership numbers; Pizzi had a healthy ownership percentage in February but only returned 6.5 points.
Chelsea vs. Paris Saint-Germain, Wednesday
— PSG 2, Chelsea 1 in first leg —
This should be a very tight affair akin to the first leg, from which PSG took a 2-1 victory on Edison Cavani’s late goal. There’s a lot of firepower on both sides of this matchup; will things match the potential fireworks from big names?
Let’s start with the options from both teams at forward and midfield. On PSG’s side of things, you have Zlatan Ibrahimovic ($8,400) as the lead striker, flanked likely by Lucas Moura ($5,800) and Angel Di Maria ($8,000). Cavani ($6,300) could get the start in place of Moura, but it does seem that Laurent Blanc has settled on using just one between he and Zlatan in the starting lineup. Moura has a more DFS friendly game than Cavani and should have some corner kick duties alongside Di Maria. Chelsea’s likely starters are a bit more cut and dried—you have Diego Costa ($7,000) up top with a trio of attacking midfielders supporting the Spanish striker. With Pedro hurt, you have WIllian ($7,800), Eden Hazard ($5,600) and likely Oscar ($5,600) getting the start. Willian is a clear pivot to Di Maria, but has hit a relatively uneven streak as of late. Double digits are almost a given, but to hit 3-4x value the Brazilian seemingly will need to get an assist or goal in this one. Both Hazard and Oscar are very talented attackers, but neither will garner a high number of crosses in the run of play and won’t get points from dead ball opportunities.
The rest of the midfield options are low floor, low owned plays—Cesc Fabregas ($5,100) won’t likely see free kick chances or corners in place of Willian, and PSG’s trio of midfielders aren’t explosive enough to be used, especially at mid-range prices. Marco Verrati ($5,100) hit double digits from the first leg, but doesn’t have enough of a ceiling to use him at that price and the Italian’s an injury doubt. Blaise Matuidi ($4,200) is dinged up as well, but he is more likely to suit up than Verrati. Likely replacements Thiago Motta and Adrian Rabiot ($3,200) can be passed over unless you’re really in the need for low end midfield options and Gent or Benfica options aren’t your thing.
For defense, you’ll have to pay up for Gregory van der Wiel ($3,600) with Serge Aurier still suspended; avoid Maxwell at all costs on the other PSG flank, and central defenders David Luiz and Thiago Silva are a bit overpriced and difficult to get into a lineup, especially one with Ronaldo. For Chelsea, Cesar Azpilicueta is way overpriced and Branislav Ivanovic will be played centrally with John Terry hurt. That leaves Baba Rahman ($3,000) are the only viable cash option in this one, with Gary Cahill ($2,300) a possible GPP option with defending values really hard to find on this slate. Rahman could be the highest owned defender on this slate unless there’s a surprise starter used at outside back by one of the eight squads.
Both goalkeepers I can make an argument for; Thibault Courtois ($4,100) is part of a Chelsea club that’s at home and is a slight favorite, and Chelsea in the past have gotten up for big games, especially at home. But Courtois hasn’t hit double digit points since their draw against Manchester United in February and only Casteels is a more expensive option on the slate. Kevin Trapp ($4,000) isn’t much more a value than Courtois, but he should see a good amount of action in this match and he’s hit double digits in EVERY Champions League game so far this season.