Champions League Preview: Tuesday/Wednesday
The Champions League is back Tuesday and Wednesday on DraftKings (and elsewhere), with two and one day slates in the mix for you to choose from.
For me personally, it’s been a very interesting time lineup building (with changes possibly to be made after lineups are announced) because of a distinct lack of options in the middle ranges of the player pool, especially at midfield, and somewhat at forward. You can go stars and scrubs, but you need to choose correctly on each end to succeed. A balanced lineup is rather difficult to field in the two-day slate.
Porto vs. FC Basel
Porto’s late tying goal in the first leg at Basel was a huge boost to Porto’s chances of advancing into the elite eight, as it were—now they host the second leg as clear favorites to win outright and advance.
Porto: Fabiano ($4,900), Danilo ($4,900), Alex Sandro ($2,800), Yacine Brahimi ($8,400), Hector Herrera ($6,900), Evandro ($3,000), Ruben Neves ($4,300), Casemiro ($3,000), Ricardo Quaresma ($5,800), Cristian Tello ($6,100), Vincent Aboubakar ($5,500), Goncalo Paciencia ($3,000).
Basel: Tomas Vaclik ($4,200), Behrang Safari ($3,200), Lucas Zuffi ($3,000), Fabian Frei ($3,500), Marco Streller ($5,500), Shkelzen Gashi ($5,100), Breel Embolo ($5,000), Derlis Gonzalez ($4,400)
With value plays Oliver and Adrian out for Porto, look for Neves or Evandro and Tello to fit in their spots—Tello will play on the right side of the front three while Neves will be used in the midfield in place of Oliver. Porto seemingly had one and a half eyes on this one, squeaking by with a 1-0 win at Braga in league play. Jackson Martinez came off after just 65 minutes with a groin injury, and it looks like the Colombian will miss this huge match because of it.
So with that, up steps Aboubakar as the likely starting central forward in Porto’s 4-3-3-. The 23 year-old Cameroon forward was signed last summer by Porto, and has not seen a lot of playing time in the shadow of Martinez. Aboubakar has three appearances so far in the Champions League, with two starts and one substitute with 181 minutes in total—and two goals for show for it. On the negative side, Aboubakar has only scored once in eight substitute appearances domestically, (he missed most of January at the African Cup of Nations). He has scored goals in his young career, and at that salary it’ll be hard to fade Aboubakar—but the matchup is very difficult, and Basel will likely give up few chances, even on the road.
Brahimi needs a much better second leg for Porto to advance; his pricing has remained the same for DFS purposes and with Martinez’s absence he should be the focal point for Porto’s attack. Herrera’s a nice contrarian play on this short slate; even in a less forward role, the Mexican midfielder finds himself pretty regularly on the scoresheet. Value comes from the rest of the front six; Casemiro and Neves are under $5k, while either Tello or Quaresma should be lower owned. Fabinho isn’t exactly cheap, but his home start paired with a Basel mindset that will be very careful, defending in numbers could do well towards a clean sheet for the hosts. Danilo’s penalty was a surprise gift (both Martinez and Brahimi were subbed off) and the right back is again a strong play on this slate, just don’t expect another goal. Sandro will again likely see high ownership rates because of his salary.
Basel continue to dominate domestically, but used most of their likely starting lineup against Porto this past weekend in a 3-0 victory. The starting 11 should be very similar to the first leg, save one change in central defense because of suspension. Safari is a cheap option at defense, but doesn’t have the upside going forward that Sandro has, or especially others at a higher price. Frei does play a more defensive midfield role that you’d like for DFS purposes, but he does take most of Basel’s free kick opportunities, and he got an assist in the first leg from one. Gashi was heavily owned three weeks ago, and his one point production was an outright failure for those who rostered him. Gonzalez had the day many thought Gashi would have, scoring.
All of Basel’s front four have value, especially if they find the net—but choosing the right one is the thing, and it’s not a certainty that Basel score on Tuesday.
Streller remains the lead striker, and should get two to four chances in the game. Gonzalez and Gashi have the outside roles, and should have a four to seven point floor short of an outright no-show like we spoke of earlier. Zuffi’s minimum salary, like Casemiro, is a klaxon for those going stars and scrubs. Lastly, Vaclik could be a strong play in goal no matter what the outcome is. On the road, Basel and Vaclik should be under pretty consistent pressure from Porto, and that’s where save bonuses come in. Basel has and will likely remain a team that soaks up pressure, not giving away chances by the fistful and trying to strike on the counter. If you’re going lower to mid-range cost in net, Vaclik looks to be your man.
Real Madrid vs. Schalke
With one foot in the quarterfinals after a 2-0 win in Germany in the first leg, Madrid return to the Bernabeu looking to put things away quickly and quietly versus a pretty decimated Schalke team.
Real Madrid: Iker Casillas ($5,700), Marcelo ($5,700), Dani Carvajal ($3,900), Pepe ($3,500), Gareth Bale ($9,000), Toni Kroos ($5,100), Cristiano Ronaldo ($12,800), Karim Benzema ($10,000).
Schalke: Christian Fuchs ($3,500), Marco Hoger ($5,000), Max Meyer ($4,700), Tranquillo Barnetta ($3,000), Klaas-Jan Huntelaar ($7,100), Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting ($6,700).
Schalke, on top of all their long-term injury absences, will be without Kevin-Price Boateng (suspension) and are waiting to see if Huntelaar and defense Benedikt Howedes will be fit enough to play. Schalke won 3-1 on the weekend, with Meyer scoring twice and Fuchs once; Choupo-Moting picked up a pair of assists. But Hoffenheim is no Real Madrid in every way possible, pretty much. Even with Madrid’s domestic issues in La Liga, the latest of which was a loss to Athletic Bilbao, Madrid are huge favorites in this one.
The most contrarian play in goal is easily Timon Wellenreuther; even at that price tag and the chance he’ll get peppered with Madrid shots that could lead to save bonuses, the Schalke keeper is hands-off. This could easily end up being a multi-goal loss. Fuchs was an early sub off in the weekend win, and while he’s expected to start he like any Schalke defender is a tough option to give a lot of backing to. Dennis Aogo is not expected to start in this game. If you’re using anyone from Schalke in this one, it’s likely to be one of the lower priced midfielders like Meyer, Barnetta, Hoger or either Huntelaar or Choupo-Moting in attack. Meyer and Choupo-Moting would be the best bets of the mix, but that floor is awfully low if Madrid dominate.
That leaves us with what ways to go Merengues on Tuesday afternoon. It’ll cost you, but getting some white and purple into your lineup seems to be a must-need. Casillas has the best chance of the lot at keeper of getting a win/clean sheet bonus pairing, but at that price tag it might be hard to include his teammates. Marcelo is the best play at defender if you throw the salaries out the window; double digits are a near-certainty. A much cheaper option is Carvajal, who doesn’t get as forward as Marcelo consistently but should have his chances if Madrid dominate possession. The midfield trio for Madrid is your cheapest way in, but none of Isco. Illarramendi, Kroos or Silva produce for DFS purposes on a regular basis. Kroos is your best bet of that quarter, but double digits are far from a certainty. In the end, you turn your focus to the big three of Bale, Benzema and Ronaldo—none of which are performing very well as of late. Bale hasn’t scored in eight straight games, Benzema only four in his last eight (two of which were in that eight game against Sociedad on January 31st), while Ronaldo has three in his last six after a La Liga red card suspension in late January.
Breaking it down like this: Ronaldo remains chalk and a certainty for “safe” rosters, where you’ll have to find the right goal-scoring values around the Portuguese superstar. Benzema, at $10k, will be low owned and could win GPPs if he gets enough of the scraps Ronaldo leaves on the table. Bale is in the same boat, but I’ll be avoiding him in full. Of course, he could explode at any time, but the options from Bayern, Chelsea and Brahimi are much more attractive ways to go on this slate.
Bayern Munich vs. Shakhtar Donetsk
Bayern left the door open, albeit ever so slightly, by the scoreless draw at Donetsk in the first leg in the Ukraine last month.
Bayern: Manuel Neuer ($5,600), David Alaba ($4,800), Juan Bernat ($4,500), Jerome Boateng ($4,100), Holger Badstuber ($4,100), Rafinha ($3,800), Arjen Robben ($9,600), Franck Ribery ($9,400), Mario Gotze ($9,300), Bastian Schweinsteiger ($5.500), Thomas Muller ($9,800), Robert Lewandowski ($9,700).
Shakhtar: Andriy Pyatov ($3,300), Darijo Srna ($3,700), Vyacheslav Shevchuk ($3,700), Alex Teixeira ($6,100), Douglas Costa ($5,600), Taison ($5,200), Luiz Adriano ($7,200).
It’s a fine line for Donetsk; defend in numbers and frustrate Munich as much as possible and when given the chance to counterattack, you’d better make it count. The questionable Teixeira missed Shakhtar’s weekend domestic draw, and the team are understandably huge underdogs. Everyone on the squad will be low owned and heavily contrarian; Pyatov could be in the negative after this match ends, or could hit double digits through saves. Both outside backs could see some points from crosses, but I’d shy away from both Shevchuk and Srna because Munich will dominate possession. Adriano did not have a shot in the first leg, and that was the home one—at his relatively low price, he’s hard to roster outside of someone using multiple lineups.
Munich is full of chalky goodness that will cost you, especially in midfield. It looks like two out of Gotze, Lewandowski and Muller will start in this one, with Robben and Ribery relatively sure things as the outside attacking midfielders behind the lead striker. Bayern had a relatively easy time despite giving up the opening goal in their 3-1 win over Hannover; Pep Guardiola brought Lewandowski off the bench midway through the first half, but it was Muller who scored twice in the win. Because it’s a Wednesday start and their almost identical pricing, be ready to choose between Muller and Lewandowski, especially if the latter starts as the lead forward. If not, it’ll be Muller up top with Gotze likely the central attacking mid.
The rest of the club is pretty straightforward to use; Neuer is only $100 less than Casillas with a similar home start. While Casillas is likely to see a bit more action, he’s also prone to mistakes. Casillas does have recent history on his side, hitting double digits in each of his last six CL starts. It looks like Bernat and Rafinha are the outside backs, but neither are outright attacking defenders. Both central defenders could have chances to hit double digits via a clean sheet and perhaps a goal or assist from a set piece, but the odds of that will match their relatively low ownership numbers. Alaba does take free kicks at times, and is likely to play in a central defensive midfield role for Bayern alongside Schweinsteiger.
Chelsea vs. PSG
Chelsea do have the upper hand in this after a 1-1 draw in Paris from the first leg, and Stamford Bridge this season has been incredibly inhospitable to visitors this season. PSG rested several players in their weekend win, and likely will be given the chance by Chelsea to attack in order to lure them forward and PSG up to counterattacks. This game should be pretty tight unless either club scores in the first half hour, which obviously would shift the dynamic a great deal.
Chelsea: Thibaut Courtois ($5,200), Branislav Ivanovic ($5,000), Cesar Azpilicueta ($3,900), John Terry ($3,600), Eden Hazard ($8,900), Cesc Fabregas ($7,200), Oscar ($7,000), Willian ($6,400), Diego Costa ($9,300).
PSG: Salvatore Sirigu ($4,000), David Luiz ($4,200), Gregory van der Wiel ($3,800), Maxwell ($3,700), Blaise Matuidi ($5,700), Javier Pastore ($6,200), Zlatan Ibrahimović ($9,500), Edinson Cavani ($9,200), Ezequiel Lavezzi ($6,900).
The visitors will likely lineup very similar to the lineup that drew in the first leg; Luiz as a central defensive midfielder, and the Brazilian will go forward if given the chance besides sometimes being a trainwreck defensively. Van der Wiel and Maxwell normally get forward a great deal for PSG, but were limited in the first leg and likely will be as well on Wednesday. Matuidi and Veratti have relatively low floors, but if given the chance they will be able to get shots on net. Peripherals, on the other hand, are out of the question.
The only question seems to be who plays on the right the front three alongside Zlatan and Cavani; Lavezzi started the first leg, Pastore was the sub, and Lucas Moura was left out. Moura’s speed down the wing is pretty much neutralized with Chelsea defending in numbers, so it’s likely down to one of two Argentines. Pastore, on the face of it, is more DFS friendly and Lavezzi more the worker bee, complimentary type of the big two. In their 4-1 home win this past weekend, with Lavezzi starting and Pastore off the bench, the latter had a goal and an assist while Lavezzi has not scored in his last five. Laurent Blanc may keep the status quo knowing Pastore can contribute off the bench. Both Cavani and Zlatan are normally strong choices, but Chelsea’s strong defense could limit their chances. In the overall scheme of things, both are contrarian options to players in their salary neighborhood; Benzema, Muller, Lewandowski and Costa.
Speaking of Costa, he remains underachieving since returning from suspension. Aside from a fluky goal in the League Cup final, the Chelsea striker seems to be not fully in gear—and Chelsea will need him on Wednesday to advance. The Brazilian-born Spanish international has not scored yet in the Champions League this season, and could relatively under-owned as more go towards Bayern’s forwards and Zlatan. Costa has to break out of this sooner rather than later, and this could be it. Hazard is priced below Bale and Bayern boys, and should see another strong performance as the fulcrum of Chelsea’s attack. To win a GPP, if you use Hazard, you need him to score—as per normal, he’s Chelsea’s penalty taker and also has the ability to hit the back of the net from the run of play.
It looks like Nemanja Matic will start in this match; who his partner in defensive midfield is somewhat up in the air. Fabregas is relatively struggling, tiring after being started pretty regularly through the first two-thirds of the season by Jose Mourinho. If Fabregas is used alongside Matic, look for Willian and Oscar to start alongside Hazard—and if that’s the case, I really like Oscar on Wednesday. However Fabregas could get that central role and Ramires plays alongside Matic. I don’t like using Fabregas in this one, even if he does get that role behind Costa. As for keeper and defensive spots, you have givens in Courtois and Ivanovic, both of which should be heavily owned. Terry is a nice tournament play if you’re using multiple lineups, especially as a flex third defender—if he scores on a set piece, you’re set.